Wishing you a Happy 2012!

Wishing you a vibrant, healthy & fortunate Happy 2012!

Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to all

May everyone of you have a grand Time in this holiday season.

Merry Christmas to all.

Here is a little story that fits the season.

Clay Balls

A man was exploring caves by the Seashore. In one of the caves he found a canvas bag with a bunch of hardened clay balls. It was like someone had rolled clay balls and left them out in the sun to bake. They didn't look like much, but they intrigued the man, so he took the bag out of the cave with him. As he strolled along the beach, he would throw the clay balls one at a time out into the ocean as far as he could.

He thought little about it, until he dropped one of the clay balls and it cracked open on a rock. Inside was a beautiful, precious stone!

Excited, the man started breaking open the remaining clay balls. Each contained a similar treasure. He found thousands of dollars worth of jewels in the 20 or so clay balls he had left.

Then it struck him. He had been on the beach a long time. He had thrown maybe 50 or 60 of the clay balls with their hidden treasure into the ocean waves. Instead of thousands of dollars in treasure, he could have taken home tens of thousands, but he had just thrown it away!


It's like that with people. We look at someone, maybe even ourselves, and we see the external clay vessel. It doesn't look like much from the outside. It isn't always beautiful or sparkling, so we discount it.

We see that person as less important than someone more beautiful or stylish or well known or wealthy. But we have not taken the time to find the treasure hidden inside that person.

There is a treasure in each and every one of us. If we take the time to get to know that person, and if we ask God to show us that person the way He sees them, then the clay begins to peel away and the brilliant gem begins to shine forth.

May we not come to the end of our lives and find out that we have thrown away a fortune in friendships because the gems were hidden in bits of clay. May we see the people in our world as God sees them.

I am so blessed by the gems of friendship I have with you. Thank you for looking beyond my clay vessel.

The 12/19 Low

From the Master Cycle 2 (MC2) 12/9 High (see last post: http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/12/results-of-129-10-time-and-cycle.html), the MC2 (click on chart to enlarge) was looking for a decline into 12/15 Low ( In Calendar Days, it was due in the weekend on 12/17L).

From the 12/17 weekend Email: " It is not clear what the 12/17 Solar CIT will be. It has a 84-90% accuracy and is at most +/-1 TD.  The Hurst 20 TD Cycle Low suggests a 12/20 Low +/-2, but should have arrived early at the 12/14 Low or we can still see a spillover 12/19 Monday Low"

Today's rally confirms the 12/19 Low as the MC2 Low (2 TD late),  the 20 TD Hurst Low and the 12/17 Solar CIT Low. It is rare for the MC2 to be more than 1 TD off, but the 12/17 Solar CIT and Hurst 20 TD Low pulled the markets down into Monday 12/19 Low. The MC2 is now looking for a rally into next MC2 Cycle High, then a sharp and fast decline should follow, be prepared.

Happy and joyful Holidays to all.

Make a donation: http://www.dharmafoundation.org/

Gold Cycles and CITs

The 55 and 89 week cycle  have topped the Gold market at the September 2011 High

If we see a weekly closes below its 3rd uptrend line/Up channel this Friday, which looks like that is what will happen and hasn't happened since November 2008 (last 3 years), it is a major weekly sell.

We should watch for a retest of the broken channel line next week or so.

We also took out the last swing Low at 1594.80. Next support is the 38 and 50% retraces and majoe support is the 2nd up Trend line. 

Longer Term, Gold is still in a Bull Market, but we should see a multi-month retrace, if we close below and stay below the 3rd weekly up channel.

The Gold Index is near daily trendline support, suggesting at least a bounce is due.

Future Gold CITs (Change in Trend): 12/21, 12/27, 1/27/2012

Exercise, sport, and fitness and the 50% rule

Your biggest Wealth, is your Health.  Trading the markets can be a big stress on your health, here is an informative article on keeping fit the natural way.

http://www.ayurveda-products.eu/infocenter.php?cms=7&item=19

Exercise, sport, and fitness – according to individual type, and stress-free

Sporting activity has many health-promoting effects: It keeps the body fit and mobile, it builds up the muscles, and strengthens the internal organs. Nevertheless, as with many good things in life, there is a right amount of exercise that should be taken; and if this level is exceeded, then the disadvantages start to outweigh the advantages.

Here we are not talking just about over-enthusiastic joggers who risk pulling a muscle or straining a ligament. The long-term effect of over-exercising is also bad for health: the body as a whole does not benefit, it loses its inner balance and its resources get exhausted. The Ayurvedic tips presented here will give you an idea of what is meant by ‘healthy exercise’. Ayurveda means literally ‘the science of long life’ and is considered to be the oldest and most comprehensive system of health in the world. And although Ayurveda came into existence about 5000 years ago, at the time of the great Vedic civilisation, the knowledge of Ayurveda is timeless, eternal.

50% of one’s capacity = maximum benefit
Too much exercise done in the wrong manner can be just as unhealthy as too little. Yet how do you discover what is the right amount for you? Most medical experts recommend exercising up to 75-80% of one’s maximum heart rate. But Ayurveda gives a simple rule of thumb: when one begins to sweat profusely, or when breathing begins to be heavy or laboured (so that one can no longer breathe through the nose but must instead breathe through the mouth) - at that point one should stop or slow down. This kind of fitness programme, in which one exercises only to a maximum of 50% of one’s own capacity, is balanced and ideal for health.
If this appears to differ from current medical opinion, it is because Ayurveda always takes a holistic view: i.e. the purpose of exercise is not just to build up the muscles and strengthen the circulation. Exercise and sport should above all contribute to maintaining the inner balance of the physiology as a whole, strengthening all organs and making the immune system more resistant to disease. According to Maharishi Ayurveda, exercise enhances well-being, and should reduce rather than increase stress. Over time, this makes for more enjoyment, and in the long term is more healthy than pushing one’s body to the limit so as to attain a temporary peak experience. The classical Ayurvedic textbook Charak Samhita says: “He who exercises to excess, his strength will suddenly vanish, like that of a lion trying to drag an elephant.” After exercise one should feel better and more energetic than before. According to Ayurveda exhaustion is a sign of “unhealthy” exercise.

Regularity
Another important point is that exercise should be done regularly. It is better to keep yourself fit with a few minutes or half an hour of exercise up to 50% of one’s capacity, rather than torturing one’s body for two hours twice a week. The body benefits more from regular exercise, and, according to the classical Ayurvedic texts, over time becomes strong, energetic, flexible, and possessed of good stamina. The heart and other inner organs are strengthened, the digestive power is stimulated, and the mind becomes balanced and calm.

Individual differences
Ayurveda adds another insight to the modern approach, by giving individual guidelines based on age and “constitutional type”.
1. Age: People under 25 should exercise regularly and sufficiently. Children are generally very active anyway and naturally enjoy exercise and sport. However, they should not on any account be forced into things. As a rule, children themselves know how much and what type of exercise does them good. From 25 to 40 the whole thing can be taken in a somewhat more moderate fashion, depending on one’s constitutional type (disposition), which we discuss in more detail in Point 2. People over 40 should be even more moderate – exercise should be increasingly light, although still regular.(15 to 30 minutes per day).
2. Constitution: thin people with delicate limbs and quick movements (described in Ayurveda as Vata types) should engage in slow and mild types of exercise, ideally those which keep the body in continuous movement for 15-20 minutes. This would include walking, swimming, dancing, and bicycling. Such people should take extra care not to over-exercise, and in winter should perhaps favour indoor sports, since they are not so well able to handle cold weather.

People with average to strong build (Pitta), who have a good temperature regulation, can do more demanding kinds of exercise, for which 15-20 minutes of practice daily is enough. Suitable kinds of exercise include: water sports such as swimming and surfing; any sports that take place in the open air (skiing, climbing, bicycling, light jogging, and all team games and ball games).

People who are by nature somewhat more corpulent (Kapha) will profit most from regular exercise, although they are not usually very motivated. They can do exercise like jogging, long-distance running, and rowing, as they have the necessary stamina for this. 15-30 minutes a day are sufficient. For all types of people, some warm-up phase is recommended.

When to exercise
It frequently goes unnoticed that in relation to physiological biorhythms there are particular times that are better suited (or less well suited) to one’s personal exercise regime.
1. Time of day: mornings between 6 and 10 o’clock in the morning is the best time for doing something for one’s fitness. The evening is best suited for relaxation, rest, and recreation.

2. Time of year: In summer one’s daily work-out should not take place right in the midday heat. And in general one should take more exercise in autumn, winter and spring than in summer.

When not to exercise

• when one is feeling exhausted
• when one is ill
• when one is hungry or thirsty
• directly before or after meals. After a main meal wait at least 2-3 hours. But there is no objection to taking a walk after the meal, as an aid to digestion.
• Women should exercise only lightly or not at all during menstruation, pregnancy, and for some time after childbirth. Certain yoga postures and antenatal or postnatal exercises are excepted from this, of course.

Food and drink
Food should be natural, freshly prepared, rich in variety, nutritious and tasty. It is less a matter of calories, vitamins and carbohydrates, than of recognising one’s own individual needs. The main meal should be at midday; breakfast and dinner should if possible be somewhat lighter. Taking regular meals is good for the body and enables it to make best use of the food. Special Ayurvedic drinks for physically demanding activities include: the vitality drink Almond Energy and teas such as Fitness-Exklusiv, Men’s Tea und First Lady.

Food supplements (The secret of ‘Rasayanas’)
Ayurveda describes a large range of herbal and mineral compounds. Not only do these contain high concentrations of nutrients, but the specific combinations involved in these food supplements produce additional and unique effects. The different ingredients complement and strengthen each other and can thus be absorbed by the body in an optimum manner. The most important Ayurvedic food supplement is Maharishi Amrit Kalash. It has been shown to reduce cell-damaging substances, the so-called “free radicals” (highly reactive fragments of oxygen molecules, which are produced in greater numbers when the physiology is under strain), and also supports the immune system in a holistic way. The food supplement Sport Rasayana is perfectly suited to sportsmen and sportswomen and any people who do a lot of exercise. This product comprises the Indian Amla fruit (amalaki). The Ayurvedic texts ascribe to it an anabolic (muscle-building) effect, as well as other nourishing and balancing qualities.

Yoga Asanas
Yoga Asanas are a harmonised and integrated sequence of Yoga postures which not only increase mobility, but above all improve mind-body co-ordination. However, they should only be learned from an experienced teacher. See addresses.
A sufficient period of recuperation is just as important as the actual activity of exercise. It allows the body to revive and to gather new strength. A gentle massage relaxes the joints and limbs that have been under pressure. It loosens the muscles and helps reduce lactic acid (lactate) which leads to stiffness. The massage will be even more pleasant if done with Ayurvedic Sport Massage Oil. In the rest period you can enjoy beneficial Ayurvedic aroma oils. These can also create a pleasant atmosphere in the fitness studio itself.
Regular mental relaxation is important for lasting success and inner balance. Transcendental Meditation is an ancient Vedic technique of consciousness, which is simple both to learn and to practise. Unlike other relaxation techniques, the effectiveness of Transcendental Meditation has been validated by rigorous scientific research.

And remember:
It is important to enjoy your exercise. These tips should be considered as hints, not rules. For professional sportsmen, all these Ayurvedic guidelines are applicable only up to a point, as they are obliged to train more in order to reach their peak performance. They are recommended to limit the damage caused by “free radicals” by taking the corresponding food supplements. What more they can do is to adhere strictly to the daily recuperation periods, and to go twice a year for a Panchakarma treatment (Ayurvedic purification therapy). Professional sportsmen report that these measures not only improve their health but enhance their performance.
View and order Ayurvedic products for fitness and sport in the shop.

Summary:
1. Pay attention to the 50% rule.
2. Regularity is the key to success.
3. Train between 6 and 10 in the morning.
4. Follow a healthy diet, and support mind and body with Ayurvedic food supplements..
5. It is important to have a relaxation and recuperation phase after exercise
6. Relax regularly with Transcendental Meditation.
7. Practise Yoga asanas.

Results of the 12/9-10 Time and Cycle Cluster

Results of the  12/9-10 Time and Cycle Cluster, mentioned in the last post:

1. 12/9-12 MC2 Cycle High ==> 12/9 High
2. 12/9 Solar CIT ==> 12/9 High
3. 12/9 Geometric CIT ==> 12/9 High
4. Squares from 3/6/09L: 12 squared weeks = 12/09/11==> 12/9 High
5. Squares from 10/11/07H + 39^2 = 12/10/11 ==> 12/9 High
6. 12/10 Lunar Eclipse ==> 12/9 High
7. 70 TD Cycle had a 12/9 CIT  ==> 12/9 High

The 70 TD Cycle (click on chart to enlarge) has been in the markets for a couple of years now, "Bond1" first mentioned it on the T&C Forums many years ago.  Erik Hadik and others knows it as the 14-15 week cycle. There are several versions of the 70 TD Cycle.

How did the Master Cycle 2 perform this past week?

Review of the Master Cycle2 (MC2) this past week:

1. The Master Cycle 2 (MC2) had a 12/2 Major High, was 1 TD Later at the 12/5 High.

2. The Time and Price square came in on 12/2, was 1 TD  later at 361 TD at the 12/5 High

Time and Price Square out at the 12/2/11 Cycle High

1. 7/1/10 Low at 1010.91 SPX – 5/2/11 High at 1370.58 SPX.
2. The Price Delta/Difference is 1370.58-1010.91 = 359.67 SP’s
3. Time in TD: 7/1/10 Low + 359.67 Trading Days = 12/02/11H, +1 TD =12/5/11H

3. The MC2 then called for a decline into 12/7 Low, which is again 1 TD later at the 12/8 Low.

4. The MC2 was then looking for a 12/9 Up day, both the intraday cycle as well as the MC2 is looking for an Up day today 12/9.

5. There is a Time and cycle cluster on 12/9-10:
a. 12/9 Solar CIT (84-90% accurate)
b. 12/9 Geometric CIT (70-80% accurate)
c. Squares from 3/6/09L: 12 squared weeks = 12/09/11
d. Squares from 10/11/07H + 39^2 = 12/10/11
e. 12/10 Lunar Eclipse, the 11/25 Solar eclipse was the 11/25 Low

Conclusion: The MC2 has shifted +1 TD forward, but remains on track despite all the Euro bailout and instability that is going on. The coming weeks could be most interesting.

The Master Cycle 2 review and the bailout fever

 The Master Cycle2 (MC2) has been uncanny and precise, even in its day by day predictions Up into the bailout decision this last weekend.  

The bailout this past weekend and on 11/30 has certainly skewed the prices higher than expected, but so far, the MC2's timing has been tracking fairly well. 

Please note: the Master Cycle does not always predict Price Magnitude as it is a Time Cycle, it tells you when to expect the next highs and Lows. We are dealing with a Global Central Bank intervention, which is like a QE3, but so far the MC2 has been ontrack. 

In general the MC2 (click on chart to enlarge) predicted a 11/28 Low and generally higher prices into 12/2 High.

The MC2 is +/-1 TD. The detailed day by day MC2 is not always a guarantee but so far so good:

1. Monday 11/28 Low, which was also a  38 TD Low, arrived 1 day earlier at the close of Friday 11/25 Low due to the  $500 Billion bailout weekend news.

2. 11/29: expect an up day and close near its Highs, which we saw.

3. 11/30: The MC2 suggested 11/30 should see initial weakness, then reverse higher and close near its Highs. 11/30 Globex saw a lower Low, then we saw a 2nd bailout news with Global Central Bank intervention and we closed on our Highs.

4. 12/1: expect a narrow trading day, that is what we saw.

5. 12/2 (today) Initially Up day and then reverse lower by the close.

The global Bailout news is a pure gamble and skewed the cycles higher than expected, but the timing has been pretty much in there. 

The bailout doesn't solve the underlying problems, it does one thing: It transfers the crooked gambling Banks debts to the Taxpayers of the world, something that needs to change soon.

You won't believe what the MC2 is looking for next, be prepared.

A Thanksgiving Prayer

All gratitude to Maharishi and the Holy Tradition of Vedic Masters.

"Know this: through homage, repeated inquiry and service, the men of knowledge who have experienced Reality will teach you knowledge. Knowing this, O son of Pandu, you will no more fall into delusion; for through this you will see all beings in your Self and also in Me. Even if you were the most sinful of all sinners, you would cross over all evil by the raft of knowledge alone. As a blazing fire turns fuel to ashes, so does the fire of knowledge turn all actions into ashes. Truly there is in this world nothing so purifying as knowledge; he who is perfected in Yoga, of himself in time finds this within himself. He gains knowledge who is possessed of faith, is active in purpose and has subded the senses. Having gained knowledge, swiftly he comes to the supreme peace." --Lord Krishna (Bhagavad-Gita)

 The Holy Tradition:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lck24O9YFPs

The Master Cycle 2 update through Thanks giving weekend

The Master Cycle 2(MC2) (click on chart to enlarge) was/is  looking for:

1. A rebound 11/18 High +/-1

2. A relative sharp decline into 11/23 Lows (today)

3. 11/25 should have an Up bias

Intraday Times and Cycles for 11/23/11

Intraday 5 min CIT (Change in Trend) Times 11/23/11: 9.35, 10.35-45**, 11.35, 1.10 pm 1

Intraday Cycle are the Cyan lines: 9.40L, 10.00-30H, 11.15L, 12.20H, 2.00L, 3.00-40H

The intraday cycle normally has an Up bias, but the MC2 is looking for a down day and down close. 

Pure speculative path for today: 

down into 11.35 CIT, good Up into 1.10 CIT, then down again.

Good Luck and Happy thanks giving to you and yours.

The Master Cycle: 10/31-11/18 Forecast Vs Actual

The Master Cycle2 (Mc2) 3 week forecast since my 10/31 public blog post: http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/10/master-cycle.html was posted in my private forum as follows:

Since 10/4 Low, the MC2 forecasted (see chart above) the following Highs and Lows:

1. 10/28/11 High
2. 10/31/11 Low 

3. 11/14 Major High 

4. 11/16/11 Low

5. 11/18/11 Up day

The chart below is the actual result:

The Master cycle2 review of the last 3 weeks: Forecast vs Actual

1. The  10/28/11 High was 1 day early at the 10/27/11 High.

2. The 10/31/11 Low was 1 day later at the 11/1/11 Low

3. The 11/14 Major High was 1 day early at the 11/11 Major high

4. The  11/16/11 Low was 1 day later at the 11/17/11 Low.

5. The 11/18/11 Up day is in progress today. The MC2 is looking for an Up day today.

What's next? 

The Master Cycle is looking for a Fortune making Power move in the coming 4 weeks, you won't want to miss.

 

MC2 Updated

Master Cycle 2 is unfolding as expected, 11/8 High, 11/10 Low, then massive rally today, 11/11/11...

Spike Up in progress today......

The dominant Master cycle 2 Update

The dominant Master Cycle 2 last called for a 11/1 major Low 

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/11/update.html  

The MC2 remains on track as it recently suggested alot of chop and a 11/7 Low and a 11/8 High;

In the comments section on this blog, I mentioned on 11/3: 

We should see plenty of Chop, Up and down

 

From last night's 11/08 email: 

The dominant Master cycle 2 suggests lots of chop with 11/7 Low and 11/8 High

For today 11/9:

The MC2 suggest a down day and down close

 Globex futures are down -27.50 as "Uncertainty over Italy's future slams markets" http://beta.finance.yahoo.com/news/uncertainty-over-italys-future-slams-105718047.html

The next hourly CIT I have is at 10.35-11.40  am today.

The Master Cycle suggests a huge Spike is coming, be prepared! 

The 32 TD Cycle, another reason to suggest a 11/1 short term Low

"The Low may be in at this morning's 11/1 Low and possibly the Low of the week. The FEd meets 11/2."

The 32 TD Cycle suggested a 11/1 short term Low as well:

3/16L-32-5/2H-32-6/16L-32-8/2H-32-9/16H-32-11/1L















This cycle has been fairly accurate as all dates are exact or +/-1 TD.

Good Luck!

Update

"For starters, today 10/31 should be a short term 1 day sharp pullback cycle Low. Of course there are other swing Highs and Lows in the nearby future, but today is the next solar 10/31 CIT date that I have and we are declining into it and as the solar CITs have a good 84-90% record of forecasting the next turning point, it is highly likely 10/31 should be a Low."

 "The ideal target is 1221 SPX, if it follows the same price magnitude as the MC2, but price is not a guarantee." 

It looks like we will reach the 1221 SPX target this morning as Globex is down -36 SP's.

We have declined into 10/31 Solar and 11/1-2 geometric CIT and cycles suggests a Low right here. 

 

The Low may be in at this morning's 11/1 Low and possibly the Low of the week. The FEd meets 11/2.

The dominant Master Cycle 2

The Master Cycle2 (MC2) is the most dominant cycle that I currently have as it has been more accurate than the others.  It predicted the following Highs and Lows:

1. 07/07/11H
2. 07/21/11H
3. 08/10/11L
4. 08/22/11L
5. 09/12/11L
6. 09/18/11H
7. 10/03/11 major Low (+1).
8. Ever since the 10/4 Lows, it was looking for higher into 10/28 high (in trading days).

Please remember that the MC does not always predict Price magnitude and has its hot and cold moments as it may have some misses, but overall it has been pretty much in the markets.

So what is next?

For starters, today 10/31 should be a short term 1 day sharp pullback cycle Low. Of course there are other swing Highs and Lows in the nearby future, but today is the next solar 10/31 CIT date that I have and we are declining into it and as the solar CITs have a good 84-90% record of forecasting the next turning point, it is highly likely 10/31 should be a Low.

Review of the 10/4/11 Low

I keep getting questions if I think the flash crash Low is still out there. Interestingly,  many are still looking for a huge crash as bearish sentiment remains rampant.

Let's review where we are exactly.

10/3 Solar CIT was the 10/4 Low as expected http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/10/flash-crash-cycle-low-is-coming-soon.html

I was initially looking for a couple of days rally, but amazingly bearish sentiment remained strong, despite the powerful straight up rally. I posted  this privately: "Bearish sentiment remains extreme for the last 5 weeks, which suggests limited declines, like the 10/4 Low and sharp rally phases since."  

On this public blog in the comment section I posted this on 10/9-10: http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/10/monthly-spx-29-week-cycle-and-gold.html: "There was a 29 week/139 TD Cycle that bottomed on 10/4/11 Lows." and "There are just too many Bears around the October Crash Phobia month, which might delay any big declines this month."

I got further confirmation when I looked at the 75 week cycle as the more accurate 360  trading day cycle and saw it pinpointing the Low as the 10/4/11 major Low:

 The 75 week flash crash cycle = the 360 TD Cycle:
04/14/00L -358- 9/21/01L - 369- 3/12/03L -359 – 8/13/04L- 1078 (3X 360 =1080) – 11/21/08L-356-4/26/10H-364-10/4/11L,  11/21/08L + 720 (2 X 360) = 10/4/11 Low exact!

Other reasons for an 10/4/11 major Low was posted on the Raj T&C private Blog as well: 

10/4/11 Low was the Low for October 2011 as it was:
1. The 75 week/360 TD cycle was the 10/4/11 Low
2. The larger 22 week Cycle bottomed on the 10/4/11 Low: 9/2/09L -22 wks-2/5/10L-21wks-7/1/10L-21.5 wks-11/29/10L-22wks-5/02/11H-22wks-10/04/11 Low.
3. The 29 week cycle Low: 7/8/09L-2/5/10L-8/27/10L-3/16/11L-10/4/11 Low
4. The Master cycle Low was the 10/04/11 Major Low.
5. Squares from 4/26/10H + 23^2 = 10/07/11 was the 10/4/11 Low
6. The NDX 66 week Cycle (click on chart to enlarge) since 3/24/00 High, bottomed on the 8/9/11 major Low and saw a retest higher 10/04/11 Low.

Finally on 10/13 I posted the details on the flash crash cycle and mentioned:
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/10/flash-crash-cycle-in-details.html 

"The 10/4 Low at 1074.77 SPX certainly qualifies and could have been the Flash Crash Low. Due to excessive bearishness, any crashes could be delayed in this October Crash Phobia Month."   "Please note, some of the 525 CD/75 week flash crash cycle Lows were major Panic Lows, like the 4/14/00 Low, 9/21/01 Panic Low and the 11/21/08 Banking crisis Low, although some were not all that "flashy", like the 3/12/03 Low and 8/13/04 Low, but still they were major Lows."

This 10/4/11 was not flashy, but it was certainly a Major Low.

The Flash Crash cycle in details

As promised I would post details of the Flash crash cycle.

The 5/6/10 mini Crash became known as the Flash Crash. I discovered this cycle last year when the Flash Crash occurred, which is why I named it the Flash crash cycle. This Cycle has been in the markets ever since the crash of 4/14/00 Low (click on chart to enlarge). 

 

04/14/00L – 09/21/01L =   525 CD = 75 weeks = 2.618 X 200 CD = 523.6

04/14/00L – 03/12/03L = 1062 CD = 2.02 X 525 CD = 03/12/03 Major Low

04/14/00L – 08/13/04L = 1582 CD = 3.01 X 525 CD = 08/13/04 Major Low

04/14/00L – 11/21/08L = 3143 CD = 5.99 X 525 CD = 11/21/08 Major Low

04/14/00L – 05/06/10L = 3674 CD = 7.00 X 525 CD = 05/06/10 flash Crash

04/14/00L – 10/14/11   = 4200 CD = 8.00 X 525 CD +/- 1 week

I had marked 10/14/11 since last year as the next flash crash cycle Low to watch.  

Please note, some of the 525 CD/75 week flash crash cycle Lows were major Panic Lows, like the 4/14/00 Low, 9/21/01 Panic Low and the 11/21/08 Banking crisis Low, although some were not all that "flashy", like the 3/12/03 Low and 8/13/04 Low, but still they were major Lows.

Comparable Crashes:

1. 10/20/87 Crash week had a   66.23 SP range, 23% decline

1. 04/14/00 Crash week had a 187.79 SP range, 12% decline

2. 09/21/01 Crash week had a 145.00 SP range, 13% decline

3. 10/10/08 Crash week had a 257.76 SP range, 23% decline

4. 05/07/10 Crash week had a 139.34 SP range, 12% decline

Here are some interesting statistics:

4/14/00 Crash week, 9/21/01 crash week and 5/6/10 Crash week all saw a 12% decline.

A 23% decline from the 5/2/11 yearly High, would target 1055 SPX.

A 12% decline from the 9/16 Highs, it would target 1070 SPX.

Also note that Cyan weekly channel support comes in at 1065 SPX area, which was the 5/6/10 Low and 8/13/04 major Lows, 2 previous flash crash cycle Lows. 

Price targets:

1060-70 SPX is the long term Monthly SPX  channel support from the 8/87 High.

Originally the bias was we decline into the 10/14 Low +/- 1 week, with a minimum 1055-60 SPX target.

The 10/4 Low at 1074.77 SPX certainly qualifies and could have been the Flash Crash Low.

Due to excessive bearishness, any crashes could be delayed in this October Crash Phobia Month.

On the other hand, the flash crash cycle could still be out there in the coming weeks ahead, but we would need fresh bearish news from Europe or elsewhere to stimulate it.

10/13 next short term High

We have been basically straight up since the 10/3-4 Solar CIT Low and have rallied 139 SP's so far into today's High

I have a 54/108 hourly Cycle (click on chart to enlarge) due tomorrow 10/13 that should be the next short term High

Short term Low? Monthly SPX, 29 week Cycle and Gold weekly support

Although larger trends are down, could we be at short term support? 

The Monthly SPX pierced long term red up channel support last week and touched Cyan support at the 10/4/11 Lows, but rallied back and closed above its red channel support, keeping the uptrend intact.

There was a 29 week/139 TD Cycle that bottomed on 10/4/11 Lows.

The Gold weekly chart is resting on weekly support.

The Master Cycle review

The Master Cycle (MC) 1st mentioned in the beginning of 2011, was looking for generally higher prices into June 2011. http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/02/master-cycle-2011-2012-crash-forecast.html

 

Result: We saw a May and July Major High.

The High of the year is confirmed in and we should be weaker in the 2nd Half of the year and lower into at least November 2011 when the next 35 week cycle Lows are due. We remain in the (Red) down channel.

Reminder: Open House starts this weekend

Open House (free week) at the Time and Cycles Forums starting 10/9/11

There will be an open house (free week) at the T&C forum during the week of 10/9-10/16.

You can start registration now but the accounts will be activated on 10/8/11:
http://www.timeandcycles.com/services.html

Click on "Register for Free Trial"

The T&C Forum is a collection of knowledge contributors, which includes a daily Live Chat at www.timeandcycles.com

Please tell all your friends and join us at our open house!


Please note this is not the Raj T&C Daily & Weekend Email Service

(http://www.timeandcycles.com/premiumservices.html)

The Flash Crash cycle remains on course, but the next Solar CIT was today

All the bearish sentiment has managed to do in the last 3 weeks was produce short sharp rallies, before we went to  lower Lows today.  

We remain on course for the Flash Crash cycle due in October, mentioned on this blog on 9/23/11 http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/09/flash-crash-cycle.html

However, we are at the next Solar CIT due today, 10/3+/-1 and we have declined into it, suggesting a Low is forming and a short term rally is due.

Solar Change in Trends (CIT) was discovered some years ago.  I keep track of them in my daily email. Over time, Solar CITs have an average 84-90% accuracy. 

In the last 3 months, since 7/7/11, 13 out of the last 13 Solar CIT were all direct “hits” +/-1 TD:   The 7/7 CIT was a 7/7 High. The 7/12 CIT was a 7/13 High. The 7/22 CIT was a 7/21 High. The 7/29 CIT was the 8/1 High. The 8/5 CIT was the 8/4H. The 8/11 CIT was an 8/10 Low near the close. The 8/18 CIT was the 8/17 High. The 8/24 CIT was the 8/25 High. The 8/30 CIT was the 8/31H. The 9/5 Solar CIT was the 9/6 Low. The 9/12 CIT was the 9/12 Low. The 9/19 CIT was the 9/20 High. The 9/26 CIT was the 9/27 High.

We have declined into the 10/3 +/-1 Solar CIT, suggesting a Low is forming, but we need to see a clear reversal tomorrow, otherwise we could see one of those rare 10% Solar CIT failures due to strong down market momentum.

Sentiment Extremes in the last 3 weeks

From T&C forum post I made a few days ago: "Sentiment continues extreme, we have now 3 weeks straight with PC ratios over 1.00, today again at 1.03. This suggest we will get a short squeeze from Hell, before any Serious decline manifest, until then we remain in the 8/9L -8/31H trading range."

In the last post I mentioned about a possible flash crash Low in October, however, the extreme bearish sentiment the last 3 weeks was a serious concern.  

There is only one solution: Get rid of all those Bears first, with a powerful short squeeze rally from Hell. That is what is in progress now. Premature Bears needs to be careful.
 

The Flash Crash Cycle

The 5/6/10 mini Crash became known as the Flash Crash.

What only a few people know is that this Cycle has been in the markets ever since the Flash crash of 4/14/00.

The next Flash Crash is coming soon.

When exactly?: In October 2011. 

After it arrives, I will post on this public blog the cycle that suggests the coming Flash crash Low. 
 
If you are prepared for it,  it will be fun to watch unfold.

Monthly Bonds

We are following a 72 Month cycle, next due in September 2011, which is 360 months from the September 1981 major Low.

We have been in a (red) up channel since April 1986.

Intraday Change in Trend (CIT) Times 9/21/01

 

Intraday 5 min CIT (Change in Trend) Times are the red vertical lines 9/21/11: 10.10, 12.30, 3.30, 4.00 pm Eastern 

 

 Actual: 10.05 HOD, 12.30 Low, next is 3.30, 4.00 pm 

Open House (free week) at the Time and Cycles Forums starting 10/9/11

There will be an open house (free week) at the T&C forum during the week of 10/9-10/16.

You can start registration now but the accounts will be activated on 10/8/11:
http://www.timeandcycles.com/services.html

Click on "Register for Free Trial"

The T&C Forum is a collection of knowledge contributors, which includes a daily Live Chat at www.timeandcycles.com

Please tell all your friends and join us at our open house!


Please note this is not the Raj T&C Daily & Weekend Email Service

(http://www.timeandcycles.com/premiumservices.html)

78.6% retraces and the 9/12-13 cluster CIT

On 8/26 (http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/08/786-has-been-ruling.html) and 9/6 (http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/09/intraday-review-of-make-or-break-day.html) I mentioned that the 78.6% retraces has been turning these markets.

Here we are a couple of weeks later and the markets are close to down channel resistance around 1196 SPX and again right at one of those old 78.6% retraces.

 I had a 9/12 Solar CIT (90%) and a 9/13 double geometric CIT (70-80%) and 9/12 was also a Cycle CIT.  We declined into 9/12 Solar CIT and reversed sharply out of it, making 9/12 an ideal swing Low.

The 2 green vertical lines (click on chart to enlarge) were hourly CITs.

The 1st hourly CIT was an Apex CIT close to the 9/12 intra day Low.

The last hourly CIT was the 1st hour today, which was this morning's 9/14 1st hour Low of the day.

Intraday Time and Cycles 9/12/11

Intraday 5 min CIT (Change in Trend) Times are the red vertical lines 9/12/11: 1st hour, 9.35, 11.15, 12.40, 4.05 pm Eastern

Actual: 9.35 CIT was a 9.35 Low

Intraday Cycle are the Cyan lines: 9.40L, 10.30H, 11.15L, 12.30H, 2.00L, 3.30H (or Inverse)

Actual: 9.35 Low

9.35 CIT was a Low, but will it hold? Today should be interesting to watch.

Intraday Review of the Make or Break day

At the T&C Forum (http://www.timeandcycles.com) early this morning,  I mentioned in the Live chat (http://www.timeandcycles.com/board/chat/) that the Low was most likely in,  as Major channel support held right at the opening Gap and at the 78.6% retrace

"09:37:00 ‹RajaCar› Possible Low is in
09:41:18 ‹RajaCar› Often, when you get these huge Globex down nights, everyone gets beared up and the 1st 15 minutes will be the Low of the day. Today is also a Low am to High pm day, so we'll see.
09:41:58 ‹RajaCar› and yes, we also hit channel support and that 78.6% retrace level"

The intraday speculative path was the Cyan Lines, the vertical red lines was the intraday Change in Trend (CIT) times (click on chart to enlarge). Notice the 10.40 CIT was the retest Low of the day.

Make or break Day

Globex futures are down -28 SP's at the moment.

Major Make or Break (MOB) support is at the 78.6% retrace at 1144-45 SPX area, which is major Up channel support as well.

The market has reversed the last 3 times we touched the 78.6% retrace.

If we manage to close below the 78.6%, it would be an important Change in Trend to watch.

Premature Bears?

From last night's email:  
"Amazingly bearish sentiment remains High as PC ratios remain High, closing at 1.12 today. This supports the brief pullback idea before heading even higher afterwards. Most every E-waver on the various boards believe we are in a corrective wave 4 rally from the 8/9/11 Lows and everyone is expecting the next shoe to drop with a 5th wave to lower Lows. What everyone knows is not worth knowing or so the saying goes. This rally should last longer than most everyone expects."

The premature Bears are getting killed today as we rally to higher Highs.

PC Ratio is at 1.42 this morning with the market up +14 SP, is something brewing that the Bears know?

Gold weekly Change in Trend?

We saw a regular 55 and 89 week cycle arrived at last week's All time High at 1894 that touched the double upper Trend line resistance and reversed and dropped 177 points into 8/24 Lows.  

Corrections since November 2008 Lows:

1. 138.40 02/09H - 04/09L

2. 168.40 12/09H - 02/10L

3. 102.50 06/10H- 07/10L

4. 103.00 12/10H - 01/11L

5. 177.00 8/22/11H - 8/24/11L => Potential CIT to watch!

This is a noticeable Change in Trend wrt to the last 4 corrections since the November 2008 Lows, when the 3rd steepest uptrend began as we saw a sharper decline (177) than the last 4 corrections in a shortest amount of time (2 days).

Despite last week sharp reversal lower, as long as we remain above the 3rd higher trend line, currently at 1564, the trend remains bullish. A decline and close below 1564 would be bearish.

78.6% retraces rules

The 78.6% retrace has been ruling the recent market action as it retraces the recent swing Highs and Lows the last 3-4 times. This of course will end soon.

Today was an important day to watch for the next direction of the markets. A breakout is due.

Cycle Review and Update

Since my last Cycle update and review on this blog on 8/5:  

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/08/quick-review-cycles-and-trapdoor-to.html

1. The markets were expected to bottom out on the 8/8-12 week,  which it did on 8/9 Major Low

see the 8/11 blog post  "7 reasons for the Low to be in this week"

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/08/alert-7-reasons-for-low-to-be-in-this.html

2.  Cycles above (click on chart to enlarge) then suggested an 8/16-17 High and a sharp brief pullback retest Low into 8/18 Lows, which was the 8/22 Lows. From there we were expected to rally into 8/24 High. I had an hourly CIT at the close 8/24, which was the High at the Open today. 

3. What is next? Cycles are mixed as to what to expect as alot will depend on the next timing CIT coming up by this weekend. I have a double geometric CIT due on 8/26-28 and Mercury goes Direct on 8/26, it should be important to watch. (The rest is reserved for subs)