Thursday, December 31, 2009

2010:The 4 Year and 18 month Cycle

The dominant 4 year cycle has been very regular and is next due around October 2010:

8/82L - 9/86L - 10/90L -12/94L - 10/98L -10/02L - 7/06L - 10/2010 Low +/-.



The 77 wk/18 Month Cycle ( there are various forms of this one) has also been in there: 4/4/94L - 2 * 18 Mo- 4/14/97L- 10/8/98L -

3/24/00H(+1w)--9/21/01L--3/12/03L--8/13/04L(-2w)—8/16/07L-2/9/09H-8/2/2010


Early August 2010 is the next 18 Month Cycle High or Low and October 2010 should be the next important 4 year Cycle low. The Master Cycle paints a somewhat different picture for 2010.


May Peace, Happiness and Fortune dawn on all of us in the New year.




Tuesday, December 29, 2009

SPX Hourly Wedgie?

SPX Hourly Wedgie?

Sunday, December 20, 2009

It is the Season of Giving

"It is more blessed to give than to receive"

"A true gift expects nothing in return"


O' Come All Ye Faithful


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1eLDvM7eSq0


http://www.personal-development.com/

Season of Giving

Written by Chuck Gallozzi



Priceless gifts

It's that time of year again known as Christmas. Whether we're a Jew, Christian, Muslim, Buddhist, or Hindu - believer or unbeliever - we probably all welcome a season that's devoted to GIVING. For that's when humanity is at its best. That's the time we transcend our petty thoughts of self-interest and reach out to others. In the words of Cicero (106 ~ 43 BC), "In nothing do men more nearly approach the gods than in doing good to their fellow men." As I write, malls are swarming with shoppers looking for the perfect gift. So, I'll devote this space to making some suggestions. The good news about the priceless gifts I recommend are that they are affordable by all. Here is a list of gifts you may wish to consider.

1. PEACE OF MIND. Instead of upsetting others with anger, suspicion, or impatience, grant them peace of mind by being understanding and accepting. Drop childish demands, the need to always be right, and the insistence that others live by your rules. When you grant others peace of mind, you will discover your own. For as someone else wrote, "The road to daily happiness is not hard to find, it's what we do for others that brings us peace of mind."

2. FORGIVENESS.
This is not only the season for giving, it is also the season for forgiving. Although there are many similar cases, the media carried a story this week of a mother who forgave the man who brutally murdered her daughter. By releasing the rage she felt in her heart, she was able to get on with life and focus on doing good, instead of wishing harm to another. Is there a coworker, relative, or neighbor that you are holding a grudge against? If so, isn't time to forgive and forget? Someone said to me, "I can't forgive my neighbor because she is so rude." But isn't it rude to call one's neighbor rude? So, you see, when we find fault with others, we defile ourselves. We can't cast mud on others without splashing some on us.

3. JOY, EXUBERANCE.
No one likes a complainer. So, rather than whining, start dining at the banquet of life. Start spreading the good news. Spread cheer, not fear. Avoid hanging out with malcontents. It's true that misery loves company, but you don't have to accept their invitation.

4. YOURSELF.
Give the greatest gift of all, yourself, by serving others. When you do so, you will experience joy. For as the Nobel Prize winner and Bengali poet, Rabindranath Tagore (1861 ~ 1941), wrote, "I slept and dreamt that life was joy. I awoke and saw that life was service. I acted and behold, service was joy."

5. HOPE. Discouraging words can destroy people and encouraging ones can uplift them. Offer the gift of hope by heeding the words of Albert Schweitzer (1875 ~ 1965), "Sometimes our light goes out but is blown into flame by another human being. Each of us owes deepest thanks to those who have rekindled this light." Rekindle the flickering flames of those around you. And don't neglect yourself, for as Harriet Du Autermont writes, "No vision and you perish; No Ideal, and you're lost; Your heart must ever cherish Some faith at any cost. Some hope, some dream to cling to, Some rainbow in the sky, Some melody to sing to, Some service that is high."

6. UNDERSTANDING.
Try to put yourself in the place of others and understand how they feel. In this regard, George Washington Carver (1864 ~ 1943) offered this advice, "How far you go in life depends on your being tender with the young, compassionate with the aged, sympathetic with the striving, and tolerant of the weak and strong. Because some day in life you will have been all these."

7. FRIENDSHIP.
Can you imagine anything more painful than loneliness? To help eliminate it, be a friend. By offering companionship and support, you help make their and your life worthwhile. Or as Amanda Bradley wrote, "Celebrate the happiness that friends are always giving, make every day a holiday and celebrate just living!" Also worth sharing is Amanda's poem on friendship: "We may not always realize / That every thing we do, / Affects not only our lives / But touches others, too! / For a little bit of thoughtfulness / That shows someone you care, / Creates a ray of sunshine / For both of you to share. / Yes, every time you offer / Someone a helping hand ... / Every time you show a friend / You care and understand ... / Every time you have / A kind and gentle word to give ... You help someone find beauty / In this precious life we live. / For happiness brings happiness / And loving ways bring love; / And Giving is the treasure / That contentment is made of." (Amanda Bradley, http://www.amandashome.com/eachlife.html)

8. COMFORT.
A gentle look, a soft touch, or a warm embrace may be all that is needed to lessen the pain of another. Isn't it amazing how so little effort on our part can change the life of another for the better? Here's sound advice from the Dalai Lama (Bstan-'dzin-rgya-mtsho), "Our prime purpose in this life is to help others. And if you can't help them, at least don't hurt them."

9. A SMILE.
A smile puts people at ease. It tells them you are not a threat. It lightens their burdens and raises their hopes. And when it accompanies another gift, the recipient is twice rewarded. Robert Alan put his thoughts on smiling in verse: "Sometimes just a smile on our face can help to make this world a better place. Stand up for the things that are right. Try to talk things out instead of fight. Lend a hand when you can, get involved this is good. You can help to make a difference in your neighborhood."

10. A CHANCE.
One of the great gifts we can offer to another is a chance. If they've gone astray, we can give them the opportunity to make up for their misdeeds and recover from their mistakes. By recognizing that people make mistakes, we give them the courage to change. What better way to make a better world?

The above represent only some of the many gifts we have in our power to give. We can decide on the most appropriate one by asking ourselves, "What is the most loving thing I can do for the person now before me?" Our gifts don't have to exceptional. Even small ones will do, for as Mother Teresa (1910 ~ 1997) said, "It's not how much we give but how much love we put into giving." As we go through life dispensing gifts, we discover who we are and who we can become. And with time we will learn that the good we do for us dies with us, but the good we do for others lives on.

I"ll end with a quote from an unknown poet,

"Somebody did a golden deed; Somebody proved a friend in need; Somebody sang a beautiful song; Somebody smiled the whole day long; Somebody thought, 'Tis sweet to live; Somebody said, I'm glad to give; Somebody fought a valiant fight; Somebody lived to shield the right."

Let that somebody be you.

Sunday, December 13, 2009

Gold Update

Gold remains in an uptrend. The weekly gold made a regular Fibonacci 89 week Cycle High on 12/2/09 High and saw a strong reversal down the following week.
There is also a regular Fibonacci 55 (54-57) week Cycle that came in on the 12/2/09 High and is next due in early September 2010.
We should see lower Lows next week. Key support is around 1060.

Weekly CITs: 12/25 wk, 4/2/2010 wk, 11/5/10 wk

Daily CIT is on 1/6/2010 and 5/2/10.



Thursday, November 26, 2009

My Thanksgiving Wish for You

Thanksgiving and Gratitude - Genesis Charts

From Cicero to Buddha, many philosophers and spiritual teachers have celebrated gratitude. The world's major religions, including Christianity, Judaism, Islam and Hindu, prize gratitude as a morally beneficial emotional state that encourages reciprocal kindness. Pastors, priests, parents and grandparents have long extolled the virtues of gratitude, but until recently, scholars have largely ignored it as a subject of scientific inquiry.

A recent study set out to determine the affects of gratitude. After making initial observations and compiling all the previous research on gratitude, they conducted the Research Project on Gratitude and Thanksgiving. The study required several hundred people in three different groups to keep daily diaries. The first group kept a diary of the events that occurred during the day, while the second group recorded their unpleasant experiences. The last group made a daily list of things for which they were grateful.

The results of the study indicated that daily gratitude exercises resulted in higher reported levels of alertness, enthusiasm, determination, optimism and energy. Additionally, the gratitude group experienced less depression and stress. They were more likely to help others, exercised more frequently and made more progress toward personal goals. According to the findings, people who feel grateful are also more likely to feel loved. Researchers noted that gratitude encouraged a positive cycle of reciprocal kindness among people because one act of gratitude encourages another.

These results also seem to show that gratitude works independently of faith. Although gratitude is a substantial part of most religions, it appears the benefits extend to the general population, regardless of faith or lack thereof.


This suggests that anyone can increase their sense of well-being and create positive social effects just from counting their blessings.

That’s the challenge I have for you. Spend 15 minutes this week to list all the great things in your life. From health, to walking, to sight, taste, touch, to housing, to internet, to a myriad of blessings we all have in our lives. Write them down and then share them with whoever may be special in your lives. I personally believe your trading will improve the more you express your gratitude. I know your life will improve
.

The following story was most perfect for Thanksgiving and I am thankful for Jessie for expressing how I feel as well and for Susan for sending it to me.

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/going-broke-thanksgiving-wish-thankful-challenges-happy-dung-ponies-minyanville/index/a/25621

My Thanksgiving Wish for You

When life gives you dung, be sure to find the ponies.

Thanksgiving is my very favorite holiday -- the one day of year that we stop a moment and give thanks and show our gratitude to God and to each other for all of our many blessings: our health, our families, our lifestyles, our ability to serve others.

One of the things I’m most grateful for is something most people dread. It took me awhile to see the gift it really is -- in fact, I think of it as a blessing in disguise.

I’m referring to all of the financial challenges I’ve had over the last couple of years, but the last years (which were the toughest) in particular.

But before I share with you exactly how my financial fiasco is really a blessing, there’s a story I want to share with you.

The Gift (Author Unknown)

Once upon a time, there were two young brothers -- twin brothers -- whose birthday was this very day. Their father told them that he had a very special present for them.

He led these two boys, now very excited, down a long hall to a large room. He opened the door, and the two boys stared, wide-eyed, at a massive pile of ... dung. Yes, dung. There was a huge pile of manure that filled the room, almost to the ceiling.

The one brother screamed in disgust! "Father, what have you done? What kind of present is this? It smells disgusting! And there's so much of it. I think I'm going to be sick! How could you do this to us? And on our birthday no less!" Then, he sat on the floor and cried.

The other brother, eyes still wide, and with a huge grin on his face, dove into that massive pile of manure, head first! Soon there was manure flying all over the room and it seemed to the brother sitting on the floor that his twin had lost his mind.

"What in the world are you doing?" he shouted. "Can't you see that this is a huge pile of crap that our father has given us for our birthday -- and you, you are playing in it!"

The second twin's head popped out from the pile, and with a broad smile he said, "Brother, don't you see? With this much manure, there has to be a pony in here somewhere."

You see, the bigger the life you're creating for yourself, the greater the challenges will be. And sometimes, the bigger the pile of crap.

When I realized this, it was as if a light bulb went off in my head, and a whole new world of gratitude opened up for me.


I began to see things like my strength and compassion, my willingness to work hard, and my tenacity as "the ponies" that have come from experiencing these difficult challenges in my life.

Here are some of the blessings that came with the pony:

1. Within the depths of every failure lie equal or greater seeds to success.

2. I learned the answer to the question: “If you lost all of your money, what would you be worth?”

3. I liked the answer to number two.

4. Self-worth is not tied to a fat bank account or a slim credit card balance.

5. When experiencing self-doubt, be of service to others. (It takes your mind off your own troubles).

6. What you give to others comes back to you in spades -- so give first, even when you think you can't. A smile or a compliment can be freely given.

7. Being happy is a choice I make every day, irrespective of (financial) circumstances.

8. I may not be able to control everything that happens, but I can control my thoughts about what happens.

9. Sometimes the greatest blessings come in disguise.

10. My story can help others who are or have been where I am, as long as I don’t feel sorry for myself for one minute.

My Thanksgiving wish for you is this: That you may always be grateful when you come across challenges -- because it's the reflection of how big a life you are creating. And I wish for you greater and greater capacity to ease elegantly through these challenges, meeting each one head on, and rejoicing as you look for the pony.


Many Blessings,

Jessie

Monday, November 9, 2009

Crash History Repeat? Sep 1929, August 1987 and October 2009

Sep 3rd 1929 was an exact Fibonacci 55 squared weeks (Also close to Spiral calender (SC) F29) from August 25th 1987, exact all the way into the 10/29/29 Crash of 1929 = 10/20/87 Crash 0f 1987.

Here is the interesting part: October 09 is currently following an exact Fibonacci 34 squared weeks (also close to SC F25) cycle from the 8/25/1987 High.


Here is how the cycle breaks down:


1. 8/25/87 High = 10/20/09 High (+1)


2. 9/08/87 Low = 11/03/09 Low (-1 )


3. 9/14/87 High = 11/09/09 High +/-1


4. 9/22/87 Low = 11/17/09 Low +/-1


5. 10/5/87 High = 11/30/09 High +/-1


6. 10/12/87 Low = 12/07/09 Low +/-1


7. 10/13/87 High = 12/08/09 High +- 1


8. Crash Week: 10/20/87 Crash Low = 12/15/09 Low +/-
1

September 3rd 1929 High was an exact Fibonacci 55 Squared weeks away from August 25th 1987, which is an exact
Fibonacci 34 squared weeks away from October 21st 2009 High. How unusual is that? Will History repeat?

This cycle might in fact work great until the 12/7/09 Lows +/- 1 TD, but then when everyone is expecting a crash week, it will simply disappear, or perhaps for the fun of it will just work fine this time.

Thursday, November 5, 2009

The US Dollar Times & Cycles









The US Dollar has been closely connected to the stock-markets and other markets.

The US Dollar had a 4 fan-line break. The more fanlines it breaks, the weaker it gets and the more likely it becomes we retest the March and July 2008 Lows at 70.70 and 71.30. The trend remains firmly down.

Eversince the July 2001 High at 121.02, we saw a 37% drop to current prices at 75.74, with no signs of reversals yet as daily, weekly and monthly trends remains down.


There is a 112 TD Daily cycle, mostly lows, next due 11/6 +/-.

There is an 82 week Cycle due on the 12/11 week +/-

There is a 73 Month Cycle of Lows, next due in December 2010.

US$ Dollar Daily CITs: 11/9, 11/17, 11/23, 12/1, 12/5

US$ Dollar weekly CITs; 12/28-1/1/10 and 8/6/2010 week.

US$ Monthly CITs: January 2010 and July 2010

Monday, November 2, 2009

Gold CITs Review


Gold Daily CITs posted on 9/12/09 here:

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2009/09/gold-charts.html


Forecast: 9/17, 9/24-25*, 9/30, 10/2, 10/30
and 5/2/10.

Actual: 9/17 HH, 9/25L, 9/30H, 10/2L, 10/30L, right on the uptrend channel.

Weekly CITs: 9/21-25 wk, 10/2 wk, 10/30 wk, 12/25 wk, 4/2/2010 wk, 11/5/10 wk

Actual: 9/25 Low, 10/2 Low and 10/30 Low.

All the CITs given on 9/12/09 were direct hits. Other CITs: 11/4 and 11/13

Friday, October 30, 2009

SPX Hourly

Cycles were expecting high today, 10/30 High to reshort.

The
SPX hourly saw a perfect back-kiss of the 3/6/09L-7/8/09L wedge TL, right at the close/Open today at the 46 hourly cycle. Time to buckle up.


This will be my last post for a while. It has been fun.

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Rally Time


We should now see our rally into the 10/30 High. We are very oversold.

Ideal path today: 1st hour High, Midday Low, last hour High

Trend bias for today is Up all the way into tomorrow 10/30.

Don't miss the boat.

Monday, October 26, 2009

Quick update 10/26 High


As mentioned in the last post, I was expecting an 10/26 High, which is being formed as we speak. The possible e-wave count is shown. From this high expect a sharp decline and then one more High on 10/30/09.

Thursday, October 22, 2009

From now through end of October 2009

There has been plenty of top calling from many respected analysts and Traders as many recognizes the RSI bearish divergence and rising wedge patterns.

Yet the market seems to defy gravity once again and keeps making new yearly highs.


I have mentioned a couple of months ago, that the Master cycle suggests, we will see a continued rally into end of the year 2009, with some normal pullbacks along the way. That seems like an impossible feat, but so far it has been doing just that, with the recent October 21st High of the year.

Timing along with the right Cycles is crucial in this market Environment as
one can get seriously hurt, if they were prematurely short.

There are 2 dates to watch in the nearby future, one is Monday 10/26, the other is Friday 10/30, where I have the next daily and hourly CIT. The Master Cycle, if active suggests both these dates will be important highs, don't be surprised if we see new yearly Highs in the process.

The ideal path is to see a continued rally into 10/26 High, see a sharp drop into 10/27 Low, only to retest the 10/26 high on 10/30 High.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Daily and Intraday Cycle and CITs

Next Daily CIT is on 10/14.

Intraday CITs for 10/13: 10.10, 12.05-10** and 1.35 pm

Bias: 10.10 1st Low, 12.05-12.10High, 1.35 High, either will be the High of the day, then a sharp decline to a last hour Low.

Today is biased to be down in the 1st hour, rally to a midday high and see a last hour Low of the day.

Daily Cycles were looking for a 10/12 High and decline to 10/14 CIT Low.

The 1050 SPX has the largest Options Open Interest, with 87,737 calls and 101,844 puts outstanding, it should provide solid support for the 10/14 cycle Low.

Thursday, October 8, 2009

The Master cycle: October 09 and beyond

From last night's email: "We made a triangle wave 4 today (10/7), which should be followed tomorrow by a swift 5th wave higher tomorrow, triangle target is 1069-70 SPX"

The perfect target at 1070.67 SPX was achieved right at the Apex of the triangle with 5 waves up complete. After a brief corrections, we should see higher Highs. That is what the Master cycle suggests, 10/2/09 low should be the Low for October, no crashes on the horizon, in fact we should be generally higher into end of the year.

The MC knows when and where the next Big decline and rally is. Next year 2010 is when the real Fireworks should start. Be prepared.

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Cycles update

Posted in the T&C Forum and Raj T&C Daily Email on 9/28:

"
I was looking for a 9/24 Low, which arrived 1 TD later on 9/25L. The Master Cycle (MC) is looking for a brief rally, watch 9/29 at 9.50 EDT for the next High of the week!"

Actual: we made a 9/29 High at 9.55 am and have been hard down ever since. Short term support is at 1036 and 1030 SPX. It should get real interesting when we close below the 3/6L-7/8L-9/2L uptrend line, currently at 1047 SPX.

Thursday, September 24, 2009

Cycles update

From my Sunday 9/20 Update: Ideally, we see some pullback into next week, before the rally resumes, with 1052-55 SPX as 1st support and 1033 SPX as Major support.

We have declined as expected.
1st Support is at 1040-45 SPX. Major support is at 1033-36 SPX area.

Detailed Cycles this past week were:

Forecast: 9/18H, 9/21L, 9/23H, 9/24L


Actual: 9/17H, 9/21L, 9/23H, 9/24L
?


I am looking for a possible Low around the 2.30 pm CIT or a last hour Low today. We should rally tomorrow and after.


Sunday, September 20, 2009

Market relentless rally continues

The September Month is seasonally normally the weakest month, but the market ignored this so far as we have been straight Up (SU) since the 9/2-3 Master Cycle (MC) Lows.

The trend every month since Jan 09 into August 09, was to expect a High or Low between the 6th and the 11th of each month. Not so this time, as we rallied beyond 9/11.

Even the Master Cycle (MC) was faded as the MC was looking for a 9/2 Low and a rally into 9/11-14 MC High. OE week rallied beyond this date into a 9/17 high.

Ideally, we see some pullback into next week, before the rally resumes, with 1052-55 SPX as 1st support and 1033 SPX as Major support.






Saturday, September 12, 2009

A quick look at the Golden Times

The Gold continuous daily chart closed right at TL resistance at 1006. It has not really broken out yet as we would first need to clear the 3/17/08 ATH at 1017.50 Resistance, but the daily, weekly and monthly trends remains up. We then have LT monthly resistance at 1028 and channel resistance at 1075-85. We closed right at TL resistance on 9/11, which suggests a pullback is due. First sign of trouble is any break below 951 and MOB support is at 796.

Daily CITs are: 9/17, 9/24-25*, 9/30, 10/2, 10/30 and 5/2/10. It also has an Apex CIT on 11/17+/-.


The Gold weekly chart has 1st resistance at 1017.50, then 1075 channel Resistance. We closed up + 9.70 at 1006.40 this past week. 1st support is at 939 and major TL support is at 829 and MOB support at 678.




Weekly CITs: 9/21-25 wk, 10/2 wk, 10/30 wk, 12/25 wk, 4/2/2010 wk, 11/5/10 wk


The Gold Monthly chart has Long term Resistance at 1028 and 1085 Channel Resistance. We need to break above 1085 for a real break-out to take place, The 49 Month cycle was the April 09 Low.

1st support is at 815 and MOB channel support is at 691.

Monthly CITs: 10/09, 3/2011, 1/2012


Thursday, September 10, 2009

New yearly highs

We got our new yearly highs in the NDX and SPX as the master Cycle (MC) expected.

We should still see higher highs into the next swing high.


All I can say is, I hope the Bears were careful to safeguard themselves.

This has been a relentless rally.

Tuesday, September 8, 2009

New Highs anyone?

The MC was looking for a 9/1 Low (actual 9/2L at 1st hour CIT) in the last update and for today 9/8, a Gap and Go SU Day today and a close near the Highs of the day, but there is an hourly CIT at 1.50-2.55 pm today to deal with first. On the 5 min, this arrives at 2.20 pm eastern. In general, the MC suggests a potential new yearly High is possible.

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Review of the Master Cycle

In my 8/26 post, the Master Cycle (MC) was looking for an 8/25 swing High (1st chart).





Result: We did see an 8/25H with a retest on 8/27H, before we declined strongly into today's Low (2nd chart). The MC was looking for a decline into 9/1 Low.




The decline spilled over into this morning's Low. I had an hourly CIT in the 1st hour today, confirming a potential Low.


On the intraday trading Level, I had a 5 min CIT today at 10.35 am, which was the Low of the day (Sofar).

We need to rally above the 1000 Sep SP Resistance to get a 1st confirmation that the Lows are in, then 1005 and 1009.45 (38 and 50%) Sep SP



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My Site: http://www.timeandcycles.com

Email Questions to: timeandcycles@gmail.com

Monday, August 31, 2009

Review 8/31 and Forecast 9/1

Review of today's Time and cycles:

"Daily CIT: 8/31-9/1
Intraday CIT times to watch for 8/31/09: Hourly CITs: 12.45-1.50 pm EDT 5 min CITs: 9.45, 12.50*** and 2.30 pm EDT. There is a triple hit at 12.50 pm, that is currently biased to be the Low of the day."

Actual Results:

The 9.45 CIT was the 9.55 Low of the day ( "1" on chart)
The 12.50 CIT was a retest Low at 12.40 pm ("2" on chart)
After some chopping around we rallied into the close.


Tomorrow 9/1/09: Important Times to watch: 1.05 and 3.25 pm Eastern.


Please note CITs normally work only 70% of the time, 30% of them don't.

It is best to use them with other tools in your arsenal.





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Daily and Intraday CIT times to watch

Today and tomorrow are daily CITs (Change in Trend) to watch and should be important. A CIT could be a High or a Low.

Daily CIT: 8/31-9/1

Intraday CIT times to watch for 8/31/09:

Hourly CITs: 12.45-1.50 pm EDT

5 min CITs: 9.45, 12.50*** and 2.30 pm EDT.

There is a triple hit at 12.50 pm, that is currently biased to be the Low of the day.




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Wednesday, August 26, 2009

The Master Cycle (MC) performance

The Master Cycle (MC) performance since the 3/6/09 lows is shown as the green swing lines on the SPX chart. All the swing High and Low dates are in the archives of the T&C Daily Email for subs and some of them are also on this blog.


Recently the MC was looking for an 8/13 High and a retest High on Monday 8/17. We did see the 8/13 High and the retest came at the close of Friday 8/14. The MC then called for a decline into 8/19 Low, which was a retest Low with the 8/17 Low and a rally into 8/25 High, which we got.
Remember the MC is a Time Cycle and does not always dictate Price magnitude. We saw higher Highs into 8/25 High.

From the 3/6/09 Low, which the MC suggested was a Major Low (and predicted in advance on this blog), you will notice some dates are off by 1,2 TD and we did have one inversion on the 6/11 Low, which was a 6/11 High, but overall it has been pretty impressive.

But, can you make some real money with this forecast? If you were to follow this forecast alone, there is the possibility of some huge profits, but you would need to ignore all the other short term indicators, timing methods and cycles that may bring you astray. Sometimes less is a whole lot more.



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Thursday, August 13, 2009

When Price, Time and Cycles meet

When Price, Time and Cycles meet, they give a 90-95% chance of an important Change in Trend (CIT).

8/13-17/09 should be an important swing High. Here is why.


Price: There are 3 Price targets. The broken wedge TL Resistances (back-kiss) on 8/13 are at 1020 and 1028-32 SPX, the latter is also Fibonacci Resistance. Major Resistance at 1053.50-1055.50 SPX, which are 70.7% and 50% retraces.

Time:
The next thing I look at are my proprietary CIT Timing points. I have found over the years that they are only a few timing methods that actually work precisely enough to be useful. Most of the daily CITs that I use are often exact to the day, although at times, they could be off by 1 Trading Day. There are 2 CIT Times, one is Thursday, 8/13 and a double "hit" on Monday 8/17. Furthermore, there is a reliable Astro-based CITs that are due on Friday 8/14: 8/14 is a Sun opposite Jupiter and the Midpoint of Jupiter Retrograde and Jupiter Direct.

Cycles:
There is a long term fixed 8/16 week Cycle due this week and we have rallied into it. I have already discussed the proprietary Master Cycle (MC) that suggests we make a Major 8/13 High and 8/17 Highs of the Month. My conclusion can only be that we are making a Major High in the next couple of days due to the confluence of Price, Time and Cycles.



This will be my last post for quite a while as I am already supposed to be on vacation.









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Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Ontrack, but fed awaits

I am on vacation, but thought this was important enough to post now.

The MC was expecting a higher Low on 8/11 with the 8/6 Low, we got that, although it was more like a retest Low.

Today and tomorrow, 8/12 and 8/13 are expected to be solid days UP. 8/13 is expected to be the High of the Month, 8/17 is a lower High, get ready for that!

As mentioned before, there is also a seasonal tendency for the market to rally into 2pm of FOMC days, which it is doing right now.


Ofcourse the FED's 2pm decision is always a gamble as to direction and it is best to stand aside then and see what happens, but the MC suggests we close positive today.

Friday, August 7, 2009

Wedge Update

5 min SPX, since the wedge APEX and CIT at 2.15 pm Low of the day at 992 SPX yesterday

MC Update

Unemployment numbers was bullish for the markets.

The Bears are getting seriously whipped.

The Master Cycle (MC) was suggesting that after a short term 8/5 Low, the next day should Gap up, that day is today, as 8/6 was the Low (+1 TD).

The MC suggests we will close off our Highs today, but still positive.

Short term Highs are not quite in yet.


Longer term, the MC is foremost a Time Cycle, ie it predicts future Highs and Lows and does not always indicate PRICE Magnitude, so it really can not guarantee how much lower of higher we go, but IF the MC Price pattern were to believed, we should be generally higher into EOY




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Site: http://www.timeandcycles.com

Email: timeandcycles@gmail.com

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Intraday expectations for 8/6/09

From last night's email and posted at: http://timeandcycles.com/board/viewtopic.php?f=39&t=1245

"This suggests today’s Lows will be retested tomorrow (8/6). There is an Apex of the wedge on the 5 min chart at 2.35 pm+/- tomorrow that ideally should be the Low.

The odds are tomorrow is expected to retest today’s Lows, either at the midday Low or at the 2.15 –35 CIT Low."


Intraday 5 min CIT Times 08/06/09: 10.35-11.40 Hourly APEX, 11.45, 12.10, 1.00, 2.15, 2.35+/- Apex and 4.15 pm EDT"


Actual: The 5 min Apex arrived at the 2.10 CIT Low of the day.

The Master Cycle (MC) Detailed Cycle

Summary from last night's T&C email:

The MC was looking for a 7/29 Low (1) and expected a "continued rally through 8/4 High (2)" and if exact see a 1 day pullback into an 8/5 Low (3) and a Gap UP (on 8/6) (we are currently down -3.5 SP's) and rally in a choppy fashion."


With Top Pickers all around, the MC suggests this rally phase is not quite over.







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Site: http://www.timeandcycles.com

Email: timeandcycles@gmail.com

Monday, August 3, 2009

NDX weekly Chart

The weekly NDX continuous Chart has a Cluster of TL and 50% Resistance at 1635-45.

If the markets can overcome this 1645 area, it would be very bullish longer Term, but for now it is a Brick wall MOB resistance.

The red DTL comes in at the
1645 area and is from the All time High and has been Major Resistance at the 10/31/07 Major High as well as the 6/5 and 8/15/08 Highs.





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Site: http://www.timeandcycles.com

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Tuesday, July 28, 2009

The weekly SPX


The weekly SPX closed on its Highs last week. It has double Channel Resistance at 985 SPX. An Inverse H&S Bottom was triggered with the move above 960 SPX and suggests much higher prices. The regular 35 week cycle was due in the past week. We should be close to a short term High.

We saw a 3/6/09 Major Low, which was also a 18 Month Cycle Major Low.

After a correction, we should see yet another leg up.

There is a regular 8/32 week cycle due in the 8/14 week.



Please note: This blog is best viewed using FireFox, the archives and much more (on the leftside) are not showing in other browsers.

Site: http://www.timeandcycles.com

Email: timeandcycles@gmail.com