Saturday, July 27, 2013

The next Time and Cycle cluster

The next Time and Cycle Cluster Change in Trend (CIT) is on 7/26-29.
  1. Friday 7/26 is the next Medium Term Geometric Time CIT.
  2. Monday 7/29 is the next Solar Time CIT. Solar CITs have an 84-90% accuracy. The 7/17 Solar CIT was the 7/16-17L, the 7/23 Solar CIT was the 7/23 High. The next Solar CIT is on Monday 7/29+/-1
  3. Calendar Days to Trading Days CIT relationship in the market:
    10/4/11L: + 52 CD = 11/25/11L, + 53 TD = 12/19/11L
    +181 CD = 04/02/12H, +182 TD = 06/25/12L
    +241 CD = 06/01/12L, + 239 TD = 09/14/12H
    +346 CD = 09/14/12H, +345 TD = 02/20/12H
    +409 CD = 11/16/12L, + 409 TD = 05/22/13H
    +454 CD = 12/31/12L, + 454 TD = 07/26/13
  4. The 23 & 72 TD fixed cycles (see chart above) are due on 7/26-29.
Conclusion: The markets should see the next important Change in Trend on 7/26-29.

Thursday, July 11, 2013

Review & Forecast

Review of the last few weeks and forecast.

1. Forecast made on 6/22/13 Swing cycle weekend Summary: 6/21L, higher into 6/27H, 7/3L

Actual: Monday 6/24 Low, 6/27 High, chop into 7/3 Low

All intermediate declines since the October 4 2011 Low has been mostly averaging 20 TD and at times 43 TD and 131-156 SP’s and 9-11% declines (see chart).  From the 5/22/13 High, we have seen a 126.85 SP/8% decline in 22 TD into 6/24L. This was one of the reasons we expected the 6/21-24 Low.

2. Forecast made on 7/1/13 Swing cycle Summary: 7/3-5L, rally into 7/12 Medium term Geometric and Solar CIT.

Actual: 7/3 Low, rally into 7/11 High so far.

What's next:
Markets unfolded pretty much as expected. We had an A=C = 1664.30 SPX target, which has now been exceeded. We should see a rally into the 1st Medium term CIT due on 7/12, which is also a Solar CIT. Once the High is in, we  should see some pullback, then we should see higher Highs into the 2nd Medium term geometric CI

Sunday, July 7, 2013

SPX, Interest Rates, Gold, Dollar & Crude Oil

The weekly SPX touched long term (red) channel resistance at the 5/22/13 All time High. The rallies since the 3/6/09 Low has been 44-50 weeks long, the most recent one was 50 weeks long from the 6/4/12L to the 5/22/13H. We rallied right into double channel & Down trend line resistance, suggesting a pullback is due. A break above this resistance is bullish short term. The 10/4/11L-6/4/12L (cyan) Up channel support is at 1500-25 SPX in the coming weeks and should be important support in any market decline in the coming weeks. Any solid decline and close below 1500 SPX is confirmed bearish.

7/11 Addendum:  

Review of the last few weeks: Markets unfolded pretty much as expected:

1. Forecast 6/24/13 in swing cycle Summary: 6/21L, higher into 6/27H, 7/3L
Actual: Monday 6/24 Low, 6/27 High, chop into 7/3 Low

2. Forecast 7/1/13 Swing cycle Summary: 7/3-5L, rally into Medium term Geometric and Solar CIT
Actual: 7/3 Low, rally ever since

The weekly Bond markets Interest Rates made a regular long term 93 week cycle major Low (and Bond High) at the 7/25/12 Low at 24.52, piercing below the double bottom at 25.10-25.19 and have rallied ever since.  The next 93 wk cycle is due in April 2014. We rallied to the 7/5 High of the week at 36.77, which is bullish for IR and bearish for Bonds. 

We are rallying into the 508 TD Bond Cycle due around July 8 2013, close to the 7/12 Time CIT (change in Trend) suggesting a short term High is due.  Daily Time CITs: 7/12, 7/22, 8/27, 10/4, 10/21

The Gold Index Daily closed lower last week at 93.50 and remains in the steep bear market. This market should retest 67.42 the 10/08 Lows. The break down in Gold stocks was further confirmed when we took out the 5/16/12L at 164.72. Medium Term Gold Index CITs: 9/12, 11/19

The Gold weekly chart closed sharply lower last week at 1212.70 and has retraced about 55% of the 11/08L-911H.  The trend was confirmed Lower, when we closed below Long term Make or Break (MOB) support, the June 2005 and Nov 2008 Up trend Line, this will become resistance at 1418. The 618% retrace support is at 1153.50.  There is a 162 week Cycle due 9/6/13 week. There is a 124 week Cycle due 11/15/13 week. Gold weekly CIT: 10/18/13 week

Dollar Daily Index
There is normally an Inverse relationship between the stock markets and the US Dollar. If the dollar sees a strong rally, the stock market declines and vice versa.

The Dollar 220 TD (Green) Cycle was the 6/13/13 Low.  It closed higher last week at 84.71, after making a 6/13 Low, closing above the double Top on 5/23/13H at 84.59, with the 7/24/12H at 84.16, which is bullish.

The Long term monthly dollar chart has been in a large sideways triangle since the Dec 2005 Highs and has resistance at 86.50.   Monthly CITs: August & November 2013.

The weekly Crude Oil is bullish as it closed near its highs last week at 103.22, right on the larger long term Triangle since the 5/2/11 Highs, just over 2 years now, with resistance at 103.00 and support at 84.37. Whichever way it breaks will determine the next major direction. There is a 153 week cycle due August 9 2013. There is a long term 61 month cycle of Lows due in March 2014 Lows.