Friday, January 30, 2015

A Mini Crash wave is on the Horizon

Review: In my 1/12 public post, I was looking for a Jan 14 swing Low.

Forecast #1 from the Raj T&C 1/16 Weekend Report: “Jan 16 is a double bottom with the Jan 14 Low at 1988 SPX and we should see a rally into Monday Jan 26.”

Actual: We made a Jan 14-16 double bottom as expected and rallied a sharp 76 SP’s to a Jan 22-23 High, 1-2 Trading Days from the projected Jan 26 High.

Forecast #2 from the 1/23 Raj T&C Email: “We should decline into 1/28 Low at the 1/27 Solar & 1/28 Apex CIT”
Actual: We declined into 1/29 Low, 1 Trading later

Forecast #3 from the 1/28 evening Raj T&C Email: “Short term, tomorrow, 1/29, after perhaps an early lower low, we will see a retrace rally and see a 1/29 High. The Fed decision was bearish today and suggests lower lows. Today confirms that cycles are lower into 1/30-2/2 Lows at the 2/2 Geometric CIT”

Actual: We made a 1/29 lower Low and saw a 35 SP intraday reversal rally into 1/29 High. We have declined sharply this Friday morning Jan 30.

What’s Next: We should see a Feb 2 swing Low. If we decline below 1988 SPX, we will see a fast drop to test the Dec 16 Low at 1972.85 SPX and this decline below 1988 SPX opens the Trapdoor to Hell for a Mini crash wave in February on the basis of a Crash pattern that is being followed very precisely. First, however, after the 2/2 Low, we should see yet another rally to another swing lower High. It is good to be on the right side of this move at the right time, be prepared.

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Crude near a short term Low

In the Jan 5 Time and Cycles public blog post, I mentioned that: "Major support is at the long term 12/98L-11/01L-12/08L Up trendline at the 46-47 area"

That trend line needed a little refinement. Crude exact key long term trend line support at 45.89 and was exactly touched at 1/14 futures Low at 45.89 and closed back above it at 48.48. We are at a short term Low in crude Oil. 

Monday, January 12, 2015

Update on the previous forecast # 4

Good Morning,
Welcome to Option Expiration Crook's week, where the various Times and Cycles tends to get skewed, making anything possible. That said, there are still decent odds of the following:

The 1/9 Solar CIT was the 1/9 High. We are looking for a mini wave C decline into 1/13L at the 1/14 (not 1/13 as previously mentioned) geometric CIT. We already achieved the minimum 50-6% retrace that was mentioned to subscribers, but we could see more by tomorrow.

Daytraders: The intraday cycle is a Low am to High pm day (or Inverse)

We saw a 9.30 High and a sharp decline to a 10.05 1st hour Low. If it is a Low am to High pm day, we should now see  a midday High.

Tomorrow sees a 1st hour Low and bias lower.

Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 1/12/15: 10.05, 11.15, 11.55  pm CIT Eastern.

Actual: 10.05L

Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40H), 10.30L, 12.45H, 1.40L, 3.30H

Actual: 9.35H, 10.05L

 Monday sees a Low am to High pm day (or Inverse), with a possible 9.40 High+/-, decline to a 10.30 Low at either the 10.05 or 11.15 CIT, rally to a 12.45 High at the 11.55 CIT, decline to a 1.40 Low+/-30, rally to a 3.30 High+/-30.

Intraday Mebob Buy above 2020.75 /ES (Mar Emini SP)

Intraday Mebob Sell below 2018.00 /ES (Mar Emini SP)

From last night's 1/12 Report: "It is possible today (1/12) was the Low of the week and 1/14 becomes a retest Low, especially if tomorrow (1/13) rallies."

1/14 Morning Update: We are still looking for the C wave Low to complete today at the Jan 14 geometric time CIT (Change in Trend) 

Friday, January 9, 2015

4 Time and Cycles Forecasts, Review VS Actual

Forecast (1) from my 12/16/14 public blog forecast: “We are looking for a 12/16-17 short term Low at the triple 12/16-17 geometric and Solar CIT and a sharp, but brief rally, before we decline again.”
Actual: We made a 12/16 major Low and saw a sharp 120+  SP rally to All time Highs. The rally was even sharper and longer than expected.

Forecast (2) from the 12/31 T&C Intraday Update:Today is a confirmed High am to Low pm day and confirms the 12/26-29 Highs are in.”
Forecast (3) From 1/4 T&C weekend Report: Once the wave 1 or A Low is in, at 1/5-7L at the 55 TD Cycle CIT on 1/5 and a CD to TD CIT on 1/7,  we will see a wave 2 or B rally High into 1/9 Solar CIT High, before we decline in a wave 3 or C into 1/12-13 Lows at the 1/13 geometric CIT.'

Actual: The 12/26-29 double High was the 12/24 Solar CIT, 1 TD later and got confirmed with the 12/31 decline. We declined into 1/6L at the 55 TD and CD to TD CIT Low, as expected and rallied to 1/9 Solar CIT High at the 1st hourly Apex CIT High.

What’s next: Forecast (4): We should now see a fast wave 3 or C decline into 1/12-13 Low at the 1/13 geometric CIT

Monday, January 5, 2015

Time and Cycles Crude Oil Review and Forecast

Crude Oil has been in Free fall the last couple of months. It became bearish when it finally broke below its 2 year Triangle back in September-October 2014.

10/06/14  Crude Oil Forecast:The Monthly Crude Oil closed lower last week at 89.74, below long term Triangle Trendline support at 92, which is bearish. The Triangle has formed since the 5/2/11 Highs, just over 2 years now.”

11/17/14 Crude Oil Forecast:The Monthly Crude Oil again closed lower last week at 75.82, which remains bearish. Triangle target is 51.67.”

Actual: Since we broke the 2 year Triangle back in September 2014, we saw a sharp multi-month decline finally reaching our 51.67 Triangle Target (from 11/17) on Monday Jan 5 2015.

What’s next: Support is at 49.86, the 78.6% retrace, but Major support is at the long term 12/98L-11/01L-12/08L Up trendline at the 46-47 area. There is a 50 Month Cycle due June 2015, bias is this will be a Low and the Apex of the 2 year Triangle due in Feb 2016, which should be a major CIT.

In the Stockmarket, the 12/26-29 double Highs were confirmed in with 12/31 decline and projected lower on Fri-Mon 1/02-05, we will review the stock market outlook in the next Update.