Thursday, May 28, 2020

Review Hourly Time CIT

Yesterday's 11.40-12.45 hourly time CIT (Change in Trend) was the 10.55 Low of the day, 45 minutes earlier, and we have rallied sharply eversince into today. 

The next important hourly time CIT is due Friday 5/29 in the last hour to the 1st hour Monday 6/1. 

There is also a 6/1 double Daily Solar and GeometricTime CIT, which should be an important Daily time CIT to watch.

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Intraday Time and Cycles 5/27/20

Today is a daily CIT (Change in Trend) and the hourly arrives around Noon time+/-1 hr. The intraday 5 min SPX Time CIT 05/27/20: 10.10, 11.30, 11.40-12.45 hourly, 1.15 pm Intraday Cycle are the Pink lines: (9.40L), 10.30H, 11.15L, 12.20H, 2.00L, 3.40H, all +/-30 min

Saturday, May 23, 2020

Two Hourly time CITs are due in the coming week

Markets have been in a volatile 180 SP's sideways channel for the last 7 weeks now.

The last hourly time Geometric CIT (Change in Trend) was the 5/18 High of day and we saw a decline the next day into the close. 

The next hourly time CIT is due:

1. 5/27 at 11.40-12.45 pm Eastern and 

2. 5/29 at the close.

Please remember, the hourly time CIT are short term time CITs only as opposed to the long term daily time CITs. The hourly time CITs could turn into longer term Highs or Lows if other Time and Cycles agrees. The Geometric Time CITs are 70-80% accurate, ie 20-30% of them won't work. It is best to combine them with various other Time and Cycle Techniques to give a higher degree of accuracy.

Conclusion: The next 2 hourly time CITs should cause increased Volatility in the coming week.

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Sunday, May 10, 2020

The next Geometric hourly Time CIT is due this Monday 5/11 in the 1st hour

The next Geometric hourly Time CIT (Change in Trend)  is due this Monday 5/11 in the 1st hour.

The last hourly 5/6 Apex CIT was a miss as it was off by a few hours.

Geometric time CIT are 70-80% accurate, so 20-30% will not work. 

The hourly time CITs are short term CITs, but could turn into longer term CITs.

Tuesday, May 5, 2020

The next hourly Time CIT is coming Up on 5/6

The next hourly Time CIT (yellow vertical lines) is coming up on 5/6 around Noon time. There should be plenty of volatility in the coming days.

Sunday, May 3, 2020

The Flash Crash Cycle is due in late May 2020

I have written extensively about my discovery of the Flash Crash (FC) cycle in past posts, including the more recent December 2018 Flash Crash Lows. 

I first mentioned the Flash Crash cycle back in May 2010, when the Flash Crash happened and I discovered then there was a regular Flash Crash cycle, which is a Gann 360 TD/525 Calendar day/75 week crash cycle.

In September 2011 for example, the FC cycle was predicting an October 2011 FC Low:

Actual: We saw an 10/4/11 major Low

The Flash Crash 360 TD/ 525CD/ 75 week cycle 
04/14/00L – 09/21/01L = 01 X 358.00 TD = 01 X 525 CD = 01 X 75.00 weeks
04/14/00L – 03/12/03L = 02 X 363.50 TD = 02 X 531 CD = 02 X 75.86 weeks
04/14/00L – 08/13/04L = 03 X 362.00 TD = 03 X 527 CD = 03 X 73.33 weeks
04/14/00L – 11/21/08L = 06 X 360.67 TD = 06 X 524 CD = 06 X 74.83 weeks
04/14/00L – 05/06/10L = 07 X 361.14 TD = 07 X 525 CD = 07 X 74.98 weeks
04/14/00L – 10/04/11L = 08 X 360.63 TD = 08 X 524 CD = 08 X 74.82 weeks
04/14/00L – 01/20/16L = 11 X 360.36 TD = 11 X 524 CD = 11 X 74.79 weeks
04/14/00L – 12/26/18L = 13 X 361.46 TD = 13 X 525 CD = 13 X 75.05 weeks

9 out of 14 FC Cycles saw 7%-26% (avg 12-16%) declines, 5 in 2-3 wks, 4 in 7-14 wks
03/24/00H - 04/14/00L was a 14% decline in 3 weeks
08/31/01H - 09/21/01L was a 20% decline in 3 weeks
01/31/13H - 03/12/03L was a 16% decline in 8 weeks
06/24/04H - 08/13/04L was a 7% decline in 7 weeks
11/04/08H - 11/21/08L was a 26% decline in 3 weeks
04/26/10H - 05/06/10L was a 12% decline in 3 weeks
09/16/11H - 10/04/11L was a 12% decline in 2 weeks
11/03/15H - 01/20/16L was a 14% decline in 11 weeks
09/21/18H –12/26/18L was a 20% decline in 14 weeks

The 360 TD Cycle is about 75 weeks, which has been in the markets ever since the April 14 2000 mini Crash Low and has since pinpointed 9 major crash Lows in the past 19 years, including the 4/14/00 mini crash Low, 9/21/01 crash Low, 3/12/03L, 8/13/04L, 11/21/08 crash Low, 5/6/10 Flash Crash, 10/04/11 Low, 1/20/15 Crash Low and more recently the 12/26/18 crash Low. It is next due in May 2020.

Many of the 360 TD/75 week flash crash cycle Lows were major Panic Lows, like the 4/14/00 Low, 9/21/01 Panic Low and the 11/21/08 Banking crisis Low. A few, like the 3/12/03 Low and 8/13/04 Low were not Panic Lows, but still major Lows.  At times the FC Cycle skips a beat, out of the last 14, 9 (64%) were direct hits and 5 (36%) were misses.

Conclusion: The 360 TD Flash Crash Cycle predicted many crashes and major Lows in the past, including the 4/14/00 crash Low, 9/21/01 crash Low,  3/12/13 Low, 8/13/04 Low, 11/21/08 crash Low, 5/6/10 FC, 10/04/11 crash Low, 1/20/16 Crash Low and the  December 26 2018 crash Lows. It is next due 
late May 2020.  Some were misses, but in general, it is a regular cycle to be reckoned with. The Flash crash (FC) cycle, once active sees an average 12-16% decline. As the Flash Crash (FC) Cycle is a 1 1/2 year fixed cycle, it will have a +/- variance of a few weeks, so timing the exact Low will be Key as once the Flash Crash cycle bottoms, we will see a sharp rally afterwards. 

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