Monday, October 3, 2011

The Flash Crash cycle remains on course, but the next Solar CIT was today

All the bearish sentiment has managed to do in the last 3 weeks was produce short sharp rallies, before we went to  lower Lows today.  

We remain on course for the Flash Crash cycle due in October, mentioned on this blog on 9/23/11

However, we are at the next Solar CIT due today, 10/3+/-1 and we have declined into it, suggesting a Low is forming and a short term rally is due.

Solar Change in Trends
(CIT) was discovered some years ago.  I keep track of them in my daily email. Over time, Solar CITs have an average 84-90% accuracy. 

In the last 3 months, since 7/7/11, 13 out of the last 13 Solar CIT were all direct “hits” +/-1 TD:   The 7/7 CIT was a 7/7 High. The 7/12 CIT was a 7/13 High. The 7/22 CIT was a 7/21 High. The 7/29 CIT was the 8/1 High. The 8/5 CIT was the 8/4H. The 8/11 CIT was an 8/10 Low near the close. The 8/18 CIT was the 8/17 High. The 8/24 CIT was the 8/25 High. The 8/30 CIT was the 8/31H. The 9/5 Solar CIT was the 9/6 Low. The 9/12 CIT was the 9/12 Low. The 9/19 CIT was the 9/20 High. The 9/26 CIT was the 9/27 High.

We have declined into the 10/3 +/-1 Solar CIT, suggesting a Low is forming, but we need to see a clear reversal tomorrow, otherwise we could see one of those rare 10% Solar CIT failures due to strong down market momentum.


Raj Time and Cycles said...

Question: just curious. if the market is up 60 pts tomorrow, and continues tanking after that a direct hit for the CIT?

Answer: Yes it is possible. That is why I have to rely on my cycles as well to tell me where we are.

If you study the past 3 months of Solar CITs, you will see that the CIT all mark Highs or Lows and yes it could be a 1-2 day spike High, but those are exceptions. in strong down trending markets.

Unknown said...

It appears the 10/3 CIT was one day late, and was a low. We shall see what transpires for the rest of the week.