Friday, March 31, 2017

The Flash Crash cycle is coming

The May 6 2010 mini Crash became known as the Flash Crash. I first discovered a 360 Trading Day (TD, Gann’s 360 degrees) cycle and posted it on my public blog, when the Flash Crash occurred, which is why I named it the Flash Crash (FC) cycle of Lows. 

The 360 TD Cycle is about 75 weeks, which has been in the markets ever since the April 14 2000 mini Crash Low and has since pinpointed 8 major crash Lows in the past 17 years, including the 4/14/00 mini crash Low, 9/21/01 crash Low, 3/12/03L, 8/13/04L, 11/2108 crash Low, 5/6/10 Flash Crash, 10/04/11 Low and more recently the 1/20/16 crash Low.

Many of the 360 TD/75 week flash crash cycle Lows were major Panic Lows, like the 4/14/00 Low, 9/21/01 Panic Low and the 11/21/08 Banking crisis Low. A few, like the 3/12/03 Low and 8/13/04 Low were not Panic Lows, but still major Lows.  At times the FC Cycle skips a beat, out of the last 12, 8 (67%) were direct hits and 4 (33%) were misses.

The dominant Flash Crash 360 TD / 75 week Cycle:

04/14/00L – 09/21/01L = 01 X 358.00 TD = 01 X 525 CD = 01 X 75.00 weeks
04/14/00L – 03/12/03L = 02 X 363.50 TD = 02 X 531 CD = 02 X 75.86 weeks
04/14/00L – 08/13/04L = 03 X 362.00 TD = 03 X 527 CD = 03 X 73.33 weeks
04/14/00L – 11/21/08L = 06 X 360.67 TD = 06 X 524 CD = 06 X 74.83 weeks
04/14/00L – 05/06/10L = 07 X 361.14 TD = 07 X 525 CD = 07 X 74.98 weeks
04/14/00L – 10/04/11L = 08 X 360.63 TD = 08 X 524 CD = 08 X 74.82 weeks
04/14/00L – 01/20/16L = 11 X 360.36 TD = 11 X 524 CD = 11 X 74.79 weeks
04/14/00L – June 2017 = 12 X 360.00 TD
04/14/00L –  July 2017 = 12 X 75 weeks

The Flash Crash Lows were preceded by an average 18% decline:

  1. 04/14/00 Crash Low saw a 213.57 SP decline,   a 14% decline.
  2. 09/21/01 Crash Low saw a 371.18 SP decline,   a 28% decline.
  3. 03/12/13 major Low saw a 165.38 SP decline,    a 17% decline
  4. 08/13/04 major Low saw a 102.51 SP decline,    a  9% decline.
  5. 11/21/08 Crash Low saw a 699.36 SP decline,   a 49% decline
  6. 05/06/10 Flash Crash saw a 139.34 SP decline, a 12% decline
  7. 10/04/11 Crash Low saw a 295.81 SP decline,    a 22% decline.
  8. 01/20/16 Crash Low saw a 322.43 SP decline,    a 15% decline.

The exact 360 Trading Day cycle has deviated by only 2 to 8 TD:

04/14/00L +360 TD X 1   =  09/21/01 Crash Low, + 2 TD
04/14/00L +360 TD X 2   =  03/12/03 Major Low,   - 7 TD
04/14/00L +360 TD X 3   =  08/13/04 Major Low,   - 6 TD
04/14/00L +360 TD X 6   =  11/21/08 Crash Low,   - 4 TD
04/14/00L +360 TD X 7   =  05/06/10 Flash Crash, - 8 TD
04/14/00L +360 TD X 8   =  10/04/11 Crash Low,  – 5 TD
04/14/00L +360 TD X 11 =  01/20/16 Crash Low,  – 4 TD

Swing High before the Flash Crash Low

03/24/00H – 04/14/00L = 021 CD / 0.7 Months
05/22/01H – 09/21/01L = 122 CD / 4.0 months
12/02/02H – 03/12/03L = 100 CD / 3.3 months
06/24/04H – 08/13/04L = 050 CD / 1.7 Months
08/11/08H – 11/21/08L = 102 CD / 3.4 Months
04/26/10H – 07/01/10L = 066 CD / 2.2 Months
07/07/11H – 10/04/11L = 089 CD / 2.9 Months
11/03/15H – 01/20/16L = 078 CD / 2.6 Months

The declines from the swing High to the Flash crash Lows have averaged 78.5 CD or 2.6 Months +/-. The majority has varied from 2.2–3.4 months. This means we should top out an average of 2 ½ months before the projected June-July Flash Crash Lows.

The Biblical 7 year Cycle and the 360 TD Flash crash Cycle

Forecasted on 12/17/14 (see link above):
“The future 9/28/15 Blood Moon total Lunar Eclipse is another biblical 7 years/1800 TD (Trading Days) from the 8/11/08 swing High, before the panic into 11/21/08 crash Low, which was 1805 TD from the 9/21/01 Crash Low and 1800 TD in the future is January 2016.”

5 X 360 TD Flash Crash cycle is the 1800 TD cycle, which is the well known 7 year Biblical cycle, which suggested a sharp decline in January 2016, being 7 years/1800 TD, from the 11/21/08 Crash Lows, which was 7 years/1805 TD from the 9/21/01 Crash Lows. The 1800 TD Cycle varies between 1790 and 1805 TD.

This 1800 TD/7 year cycle+/- has pinpointed major Highs and Lows in the past:
1.                  10/11/07H – 12/05/14H =1800 TD
2.                  08/13/04L – 10/04/11L = 1798 TD
3.                  03/12/03L – 04/26/10H = 1793 TD
4.                  03/12/03L – 05/06/10L = 1801 TD (Flash Crash)
5.                  09/21/01L  11/21/08L = 1805 TD
6.                  09/01/00H – 10/11/07H = 1785 TD
7.                  08/11/08H - 09/28/15H = 1792 TD
8.                  11/21/08L  01/20/16L = 1800 TD

Conclusion: The Flash Crash Cycle of Lows pinpointed 8 major crash Lows, in the past 17 years, with an 18% average decline and has deviated maximum 2-8 TD from its exact 360 TD cycle. It has a 67% chance of seeing a decline into it. The 1800 TD/ 7 Year Cycle is 5 X 360 TD cycle, which has also pinpointed major Highs and Lows in the past, including the recent 1/20/16 Low. If we are going to see a Flash Crash we should see a major swing High about 2 ½ months before we see a sharp 18% decline into the June-July Flash Crash Lows. That means we should top out in April or even as early as today’s 3/30-31 cycle High. You won’t want to miss the upcoming decline. Be forewarned and be prepared.

Raj Ian G. Thijm, Bsc, MBA
President of Raj Time and Cycles, Inc.

Monday, March 27, 2017

The 47 TD and 94 TD Cycle has a 3/27 Low+/-

The dominant 47 TD that I have been following is a fractal of the 94 TD Cycle, that many other technicians know about

Intraday 5 min SPX CIT (vertical Cyan lines) Times 3/28/17: 11.05, 12.25, 2.20-35**, 3.50 pm Eastern

Wednesday, March 1, 2017

Raj T&C Review and Forecast: Looking for a 3/1-2 Cycle High

From the 1/27 Raj T&C Daily Email: The Cycle bias is 1/26 major High, decline into 2/2L+/-1, 2/3H, chop into a 2/9L and see a retest of the Highs at the 2/10H”

From the 2/3 Raj T&C Daily Email: “As the dominant cycle is a Time Cycle, it does not predict Price magnitude, so we could see a higher or lower High at the 2/10H”

Actual: We made a 1/26 High, decline sharply into 1/31 Low and 2/2 higher Low, we then rallied into 2/3H, chopped lower into 2/8L, 1 day earlier and rallied above the 1/26H and beyond 2/10H. The dominant cycle (shown as the Cyan lines on the chart) worked well through Friday 2/10, when a High was expected, but when we rallied strongly to fresh ATH on Monday 2/13, the cycle was confirmed Non activeThe next day, on 2/14 evening Update, we made a forecast based on various Times and Cycles and E-waves (grey lines) looking for a continued rally into 3/1H.

From the 2/15 Raj T&C Daily Email: “The Cycle bias is we chop higher into 2/21H, decline into 2/23L and rally into 3/1H+/-1

Actual: The markets unfolded as expected, with a 2/21H, 2/24L and we are now rallying into a 3/1 Cycle High.

What’s Next:  The forecast since 2/14 has remained on track for more than 2 weeks now. The recent rally since the 11/4/16 Low has been typical of a wave 3 rally, strong and relentless. We are still expecting a rally into 3/1-2 cycle High at the 2/28 Geo CIT or 3/3 Solar time CIT and start a retrace.

Monday, January 30, 2017

The active dominant cycle: 1/27 major High

Forecast from the 12/30/16 Raj T&C Daily Email: “The cycle bias is we decline into 12/30-1/3 Time CIT (#1 on chart), rally into 1/9H (#2)and decline into 1/12L (#3) 

Forecast from the 1/09/17 Raj T&C Daily Email: The cycle bias is from the 1/12L, we rally into 1/20H (#4)”

Actual: We bottomed on 12/30/16L, rallied to a 1/06/17H, 1 day earlier, and decline into 1/12L, we then saw a choppy rally into a 1/20H.

The active dominant cycle, 1/19 T&C Update: “Last night, I found an  “active or dominant” cycle, which has been in the markets since the 6/27/16L. It predicted the 8/15/16H, 9/7/16H, 11/4/16L and more recently, the 1/6/17H and 1/12L. It is now looking for a 1/27 major swing High+/-1 (#5 on chart).

Actual: From the 1/23 CIT Low, the rally continued into 1/26 High at 2300.99 SPX, 1 day earlier than the forecasted 1/27 major High.

The active dominant cycle is a historic pattern that is currently repeating day by day and thus predicts exact Highs and Lows+/-1-2 days. There were some time periods in the past where the cycle faded (grey lines) and inverted (11/4/16L), only to work again afterwards. When active, the dominant cycle is given precedent above all other cycles. The active dominant cycle is a rare and potential fortune making opportunity. They are not easy to find and they don't come around often. We can benefit from it as long as it lasts. It suggests we see a rally into 1/27 major High+/-1, decline into  XXX and see another retest of the recent Highs.

What’s Next: The active dominant cycle saw a 1/26 major High. We should now see an initial decline and a retest of the recent Highs.

2/15 Update: Dominant Cycle faded. 

From my 1/31 post: "The active dominant cycle saw a 1/26 major High. We should now see an initial decline and a retest of the recent Highs"

After 1/26H, we did see an initial decline and we were expecting a 2/3-10 retest Higher or lower High, whihc we have seen, but since then the markets have rallied beyond expectation, fading the dominant cycle.

We are now expecting this rally to continue into XXX Major High.

Friday, December 30, 2016

Raj T&C 2016 Year in Review & Forecasting 2017

Forecast from my last 12/7 and 12/10 blog post, I was looking for a 12/8-9H and 2245 SPX as long term resistance:  "The long term Geo CIT in CD arrives on Friday 12/9, along with the 12/9 Solar and Ezekiel Wheel CIT. It is allowed to be 1 TD off, so we could see a Monday higher 12/12 High"

Actual: The actual High arrived only 2 TD later at the 12/13H, which remains the High to date, almost 3 weeks later. Price exceeded the long term trend line targets.

What's next: We should decline into our 12/30-1/3 time CIT (Change in Trend) Low and start another rally into XXX major swing High.

2016 Year in review

Many predictions were made in advance and posted on the Raj Time and Cycles public blog in 2016, some were misses, but many of them were direct hits and major High and Lows, within 0-2 days.

Below are some of the 2016 highlights, shown in the public links below:

1. The 1/20/16 Major Low was predicted by the Flash Crash cycle

2.  The 2/11/16 major Low of the year was predicted by The February 2016 SPX Confluence with  Crude Oil and Interest Rates.

3. The 6/27/16 major Low was predicted by the dominant cycle

5. The 11/04/16 major Low was predicted by the 47 TD alternating cycle and the 108 week cycle

Conclusion:  The various Raj Time and Cycles techniques predicted 5-6 major Highs and Lows for 2016, within a day or so, including the 2/11/16 Low of the year. The 47 TD alternating Highs and Lows was prevalent in 2016.

What's next: 2017 and beyond should be historic years and are patiently waiting to unfold.

After extensive research, we are filtering out a handful of the most  important dates to watch in 2017 that shows a high degree of confluence and major Time and Cycles clustering. Won't it be useful to know these dates in advance? At least they have the potential to be tremendously profitable.  2017 should be a volatile year and fortunes can be made if the unique Timing and Cycles proves to be correct. It is best to be well prepared and make 2017 a Happy and prosperous New year.

Saturday, December 10, 2016

Quick Update

Bullish momentum remains strong and as all trends are up, surprises will be to the upside. We do not short this market, until after XXX Date, and then we need to see a reversal lower to confirm.

In the past, in March 01 and Jan 02, that long term 19 year trendline was pierced it by as much as 20 SP’s, then it bounced back. For next week, that would be 2245+ 20 = 2265 SPX, If it rallies beyond that, that would be impressive for sure.

In terms of time, the long term Geo CIT in CD arrives on Friday 12/9, along with the 12/9 Solar and Ezekiel Wheel CIT. It is allowed to be 1 TD off, so we could see a Monday higher 12/12 High.

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Bulls be aware! 2245 SPX+/-5 is major long term resistance

Forecast from my last public blogpost on 11/4/16, "The 47 TD Cycle is still suggesting a 11/8 Low +/-3 TD"

From the 11/9 Update: "A solid close above 2155 SPX confirms the 11/4 major Low as the 180 TD/9 Month major Low and we now rally into the next 1-2 months"

Actual: The Cash SPX Low was on 11/4L at 2083.79 SPX, which was a quintuple time CIT, while the Globex SP futures made its Lowest Low on 11/8-9.

From the 11/22 Update: "it is best to use any short term pullbacks to add to longs and just be long until around 12/XX. There is a “Tunnel” Price target at 2239 SPX"

From the 12/1 Update: "There is long term trend line resistance at 2245 SPX+/-5"

Actual: From the 11/4 Low, we rallied so far a whopping 157.84 SP's in one month into 12/7H at 2241.63 SPX, which reached our 2239 SPX Tunnel Price target.

We have rallied into major long term 19 year old major trend line resistance that started from the 10/28/97L, touched 10/8/98L, 3/22/01L, 3/19/02H, 10/11/07H, 5/20/15H, all major Highs and Lows! and now 12/07/16H at 2241.63 SPX. Of course it can pierce this trend line a little, but it suggests limited upside potential as 2242-45 SPX +/-5 should be major resistance.

Thursday 12/8 is a major long term proprietary Geometric Time CIT, that dates back 5 1/2 years ago, from the 5/2/11H.  12/9 is the next Solar CIT and the "Ezekiel Wheel" next CIT is on 12/9. 

There is also a 45 week cycle due this 12/9/16 week that started from the 3/6/09L.

What's next: We should make a Dec 8 High+/-1, targeting 2245 SPX +/-5 and start a retrace, we should then retest these Highs at a long term projected future major High date.

The intraday cycle is a Low am to High pm day, ie, we see a 1st hour Low, often (not always) the Low of Day and a last hour High, often (not always), the High of Day
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Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Intraday Time and Cycles 11/15/16 Review, Forecast versus Actual

Forecast: "The intraday cycle sees a 1st hour High, midday High and last hour High"

Actual: We did see a 10.20 1st hour High, 12.15 midday High and 4.15 last hour High of Day.

Forecast 11/16/16: Tomorrow sees a 1st hour Low, midday Low and last hour Low.

Intraday Time and Cycles 11/15/16

Daytraders: The intraday cycle sees a 1st hour High, midday High and last hour High.

If the midday High is higher than the 1st hour High, it indicates underlying strength and suggests a last hour highest High.

If the midday High is lower than the 1st hour High, it indicates underlying weakness and suggests a last hour lowest High and lower Lows.

Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 11/14/16: 10.35, 1.50 pm Eastern

Intraday Cycle is the Pink lines (9.40L), 10.00H, 11.00L, 12.30H, 2.30L, 3.20-50H

Tuesday sees a possible 9.40 cycle Low+/-, rally to a 10.00 cycle High at the 10.35 time CIT, decline to a 11.00 cycle Low+/-30, rally to a 12.30 cycle High+/-30, decline to a 2.30 cycle Low at the 1.50 time CIT, rally to a 3.20-50 cycle High+/-30 min.

    1. We saw a 10.20 1st hour High so far
    2. 2181-82 SPX is resistance.
    3. There is a good chance we erase today's gains by tomorrow's close, which is biased to be lower.
  1. We saw a 12.10H that was slightly lower than the 1st hour High, indicating some underlying weakness and markets are stalling