Friday, August 22, 2014

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast

http://www.safehaven.com/article/34902/raj-time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast


In my last 8/2 public post, I mentioned: “The Flash Crash Cycle is a fixed cycle that can expand or contract and will have its misses (3 out of 10) and is due in August”

From my 8/2 Daily Email: “Short term, the bias is 8/1 was a Low and we should see an oversold rally into 8/5 Highs at the 8/5 double Geo CIT, 8/5 Solar CIT and 8/5 Solar CIT High, before we see a sharper decline into Monday 8/11 Geo and Cycle CIT and rally into 8/15 Geo CIT Option Expiration (OE) week High…The Flash Crash cycle gets triggered only below 1883 SPX”

From the 8/8 Email Update: “This week (Aug 4-8) is the Week before Option Expiration week (WBOE) and should be an 8/8 Low, before we rally into OE crook’s week at the 8/15-18 CIT. Swing traders should lower their stop to 1946 SPX and/or cover their shorts by 8/8, as OE crook's week is around the corner.”
Actual: We saw an 8/1 Low and a brief rally into 8/4 High at the 8/5 CIT. We declined into 8/7 Geo CIT and Friday 8/8 Globex Low, 1 Trading Day before the 8/11 CIT. Swing traders shorts from 7/25 were covered for a good 50-60 SP profit on 8/8L and swingtraders who went long on 8/8-11 also booked a 25-40 SP profits as we rallied strongly into OE 8/15 week as expected and beyond. The 8/15-18 CIT was the 8/15 Low. The FC cycle never got triggered as we didn’t get to the 1883 SPX Make or Break support.

What’s next: 

From the 8/21 Email: The 8/21 Long and short term double Geo CIT, the 8/24 Solar CIT and 8/22-25 Time square is the next major CIT Cluster to watch and should be an  8/21-25 major High.”
Actual: We are rallying into the 8/21-25 major Time and Cycle Cluster CIT suggesting a major High is due soon.


We have rallied into the 361 TD FC Cycle (see chart) and into the 8/21-25 major T&C Cluster suggesting an important 8/21-25 major High forming, before a sharp decline starts. Also the 30 week cycle due around this time:  The 30 week cycle: 7/8/09L -212/30- 2/5/10L -207- 8/27/10L -201- 3/16/11L -202- 10/04/11L -210/30- 5/1/12H -210/30- 11/27/12L(-11) -210/30- 6/25/13L -210- 1/21/14-213 = 8/22/14+/-week.

8/21-25 is the next major Time CIT Cluster to watch:
1. The Long Term Geometric CIT since the 3/6/09 Low and a short term Geometric CIT is due on 8/21+/-1.
2. The next Solar CIT is This weekend 8/24.
3. 8/22-25 is next major Time Square CIT from 10/11/07H.

Long term geometric CIT is due on Thursday 8/21***

Time Squares of Highs from 10/11/07
10/11/07 - 4/2/12 High =  1127 TD = 33.56 Squared
10/11/07 - 10/17/12 High = 1265 TD = 35.56^2
10/11/07 - 5/21/13 High = 1411 TD = 37.56^2
10/11/07 -12/31/13 High = 1566 TD =39.57^2
41.56 = 1727 TD = 8/22/14 High next!
41.57 = 1728 TD = 8/25/14

The last 3 Time Squares from 10/11/07H has all been major Highs (blue lines) and the next one due on 8/22-25 and should also be a major High. If correct, we will see a relative sharp decline as the last 3 declines averaged 120 SP’s into a major Low, based on another Time square series from 10/11/07H that has all been major Lows (Red Lines on chart).

Please note as these public posts are an excerpt, they will not include all the information needed. To trade these T&C clusters CIT, we follow one simple rule: As all trends are up, swing traders should short only when we see a clear reversal and close lower. Once the Highs are in, there will be plenty of time to get short and always place a stop at those Highs.

Saturday, August 2, 2014

The Flash Crash Cycle is due in August 2014

http://www.safehaven.com/article/34713/the-flash-crash-cycle-is-due-in-august-2014

In my last post, I was looking for a 7/24-25 High. http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2014/07/raj-time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast.html

Actual: We made a 7/24 major High and saw a sharp 75.02 SP decline into Friday's Lows.


The 5/6/10 mini Crash became known as the Flash Crash. I discovered this cycle back in 2010, when the Flash Crash occurred, which is why I named it the Flash crash cycle. This Cycle has been in the markets ever since the crash of 4/14/00 Low. I was amazed, when I first discovered this cycle to find it was a perfect 360 Trading Days (TD) Cycle, like the 360 degrees of a Circle (Cycle), it suggested that this fixed Cycle was found at major turning points.

The Flash Crash (FC) Cycle is a fixed 75 wk/525CD/360 TD (degree) Cycle that is next due Mid to Late August 2014.



04/14/00L -358- 9/21/01L - 369/77- 3/12/03L -359 - 8/13/04L- 1078 (3X 360
=1080) - 11/21/08L-356-4/26/10H-364-10/4/11L-720-8/15/14+/-

Some of the 525 CD/75 week cycle Lows were major Panic Lows, like the 4/14/00 Low, 9/21/01 Panic Low and the 11/21/08 banking crisis Low, although some were not all that "flashy", like the 3/12/03 Low and 8/13/04 Low, but still they were major Lows.
The Flash Crash cycle in details
04/14/00L - 09/21/01L = 525 CD = 75 weeks = 2.618 X 200 CD = 523.6
04/14/00L - 03/12/03L = 1062 CD = 2.02 X 525 CD = 03/12/03 Major Low
04/14/00L - 08/13/04L = 1582 CD = 3.01 X 525 CD = 08/13/04 Major Low
04/14/00L - 11/21/08L = 3143 CD = 5.99 X 525 CD = 11/21/08 Major Low,
04/14/00L - 05/06/10L = 3674 CD = 7.00 X 525 CD = 05/06/10 flash Crash,
04/14/00L - 10/14/11 = 4200 CD = 7.98 X 525 CD = 10/04/11L, Major Low.
04/14/00L -08/29/14 = 5250 CD = 10.00X 525 CD = 08/29/14 +/-

7 out of 10 FC Cycles saw 7%-26% (avg 12-14%) declines and most are in 2-3 wks
03/24/00H - 04/14/00L was a 14% decline in 3 weeks
08/31/01H - 09/21/01L was a 20% decline in 3 weeks
01/31/13H - 03/12/03L was a 16% decline in 8 weeks
06/24/04H - 08/13/04L was a 7% decline in 7 weeks
11/04/08H - 11/21/08L was a 26% decline in 3 weeks
4/26/10H - 05/06/10L was a 12% decline in 3 weeks
9/16/11H - 10/04/11L was a 12% decline in 2 weeks

7 out of 10 (70%) of the Flash Crash 360 TD/75 week Cycles saw sharp 12-14% declines, (3 did not see any decline) mostly in 2-3 weeks some time in August 2014 Lows. Some were not "flashy", like the 3/12/03L and 8/13/04L, but were still major Lows.

Perfect (exact) 360 TD (degrees) Harmonics all due in August 2014!
04/14/00L + 3600 TD (10 X 360 TD)= 08/11/14
09/21/01L + 3240 TD ( 9 X 360 TD) = 08/07/14
03/12/03L + 2880 TD (8 X 360 TD) = 08/20/14
08/13/04L + 2520 TD (7 X 360 TD) = 08/19/14
11/21/08L + 1440 TD (4 X 360 TD) = 08/15/14
05/06/10L + 1080 TD (3 X 360 TD) = 08/21/14
10/04/11L +  720 TD (2 X 360 TD) = 08/15/14

It is interesting that so many (7) 360 TD degree Harmonics are all due in August 2014.

The Flash Crash Cycle is a fixed cycle that can expand or contract and will have its misses (3), but if you study it carefully, when they do work, you'll see some amazing accuracies in Trading Days (TD), that are off maximum 1-4 TD variance from the 360 TD Cycle (Circle, degrees):

1. 04/14/00L - 358 TD- 09/21/01L, +2 TD = 360
2. 03/12/03L - 359 TD- 08/13/04L, +1 TD = 360
3. 08/13/04L -1078 TD-11/21/08L, +2 TD = 360 X 3
4. 11/21/08L - 364 TD -05/06/10L, +4 TD = 360
5. 05/06/10L - 356 TD -10/04/11L, -4 TD = 360
6. 11/21/08L - 720 TD - 10/04/11L, -0 TD = 360 X 2
7. 08/16/07L - 723 TD - 07/01/10L, -3 TD = 360 X 2

The best way to use this Flash Crash cycle is with other Time and Cycle techniques and they are a few other reliable timing techniques to help pinpoint the exact date for the Low, whether it crashes or not, the date for the low in August is already marked on my calendar.

Conclusion Flash Crash (FC) cycle: The next Flash Crash cycle is due Mid to late August Lows. 7 out of 10 Flash Crash 360 TD Cycles saw sharp 12-14% declines (3 of them were off or did not see any declines), mostly in 2-3 weeks some time in August 2014 Lows. Please note some were not "flashy", like the 3/12/03L and 8/13/04L, but were still major Lows.  If the Flash Crash Cycle is active, we will see a swift 2-3 week, minimum 7% to average 12% decline most likely into the August major Lows.

Friday, July 25, 2014

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast

http://www.safehaven.com/article/34629/raj-time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast


In my last public post, I was looking for a 7/10-11 Low. http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2014/07/forecasted-73-high-decline-into-710-11.html

Forecast (1) from my July 11 Report: “After the 7/10-11L, we rally into OE crook’s week into 7/16 Solar and Geometric CIT High of the week”

Actual: We made a July 10 Low and rallied 32.75 SP’s into a 7/16 High. From there we saw a sharp decline afterwards.


Forecast (2) from the 7/19 weekend Report: The bias has shifted that the 7/16 CIT was the 7/17L and we will rally into the 7/24 double Geometric CIT and the 70/140 TD and 270 TD Cycle due 7/22+/-wk. Any rally above 1986 SPX targets the 2000 SPX area.”

Actual: From the 7/17 Low, we rallied to All time Highs at 1991.39 SPX into 7/24 double Geometric CIT Highs.

There were 2 fixed cycles due around this time (Fixed Cycles has a variance of a couple of days)

1. The 70/140 Trading Day (TD) Cycle: 2/5/10L, 8/27/10L, 3/18/11L(-2), 10/6/11L(-2), 4/27/12H(+2)-138 TD- 70 TD: 11/16/12L, 3/1/13L, 6/10/13, 9/19/13H, 12/31/13H-4/11/14L-7/24/14H.

2. 270 TD Cycle: 3/6/09L -542 TD - (2X271)-5/02/11H-275-6/4/12L-264-6/24/13L-271- 7/24/14H.



What’s next: We should make a July 24-25 High that could stretch into Monday's July 28 Solar CIT and start a decline. We have a double long term monthly SPX resistance (see chart above) for July at the 2000 SPX area.

Friday, July 11, 2014

Forecasted: 7/3 High, decline into 7/10-11 Low

http://www.safehaven.com/article/34486/raj-time-and-cycles-july-2014-review-and-forecast

Forecast made on 7/1: We should see one last higher High by 7/2-3 at the 7/2 Geometric and Solar CIT and decline into 7/10-12 Lows. The 10 TD Hurst Cycle was 10 TD long at the 6/26L from the 6/12L and is next due 7/11L+/-3, right at the reliable Time Square from 7/18/06L + 54^2 = 07/12/14. The 45 TD Hurst Cycle should then bottom at that time."

Actual: We made a 7/3 High and declined 32.73 SP's into 7/10 Lows, 9 TD from the 6/26L.

From 7/10 update:  "Markets so far has declined into 7/10 in an ABC decline. We are expecting a Low today, so it is time to TMAR (Take the money and run). "Globex has been down all night. Often, though not always, we see the Low of the day right near the Open or 1st half hour."

"Declines since the 4/11/14L has been maximum 30-40 SP in 2-4 TD. This suggests max a 7/10L at 1945-55 SPX ."

Actual: Markets bottomed right at the Open on 7/10 in an ABC decline, in 4 TD and 32.73 SP's at 1952.86 SPX, right at the 1945-55 SPX target zone.


We have had 6 declines since the 4/11/14L that has ALL been between 30-40 SP in 2-4 TD.
1. 4/22H - 4/28L = 34.28 SP in 4 TD
2. 5/02H - 5/07L = 31.54 SP in 3 TD
3. 5/13H - 5/15L = 39.81 SP in 2 TD
4. 6/09H - 6/12L = 29.77 SP in 3 TD
5. 6/24H - 6/26L = 23.48 SP in 2 TD
6. 7/03H –7/10L = 32.73 SP in 4 TD

It would be a Change in Trend, if we declined more than 4 TD and more than 40 SP's.

Time Squares from 7/18/06 Major Low have a long history of accuracy
The Squared Days from certain past Highs and Lows have marked important future Highs and Lows. For example, 7/18/06L + 50 Squared CD = 50 X 50 = 2500 CD + 7/18/06L = 5/22/13H

26^2 = 05/24/08 -5 = 05/19/08 Major High  27^2 = 07/16/08 -1 = 07/15/08 Major Low
28^2 = 09/09/08 -5 = 09/02/08 Major High  29^2 = 11/05/08 -1 = 11/04/08 Major High
30^2 = 01/03/09+2 = 01/06/09 Major High  31^2 = 03/05/09+1 = 03/06/09 Major Low
32^2 = 05/07/09+1 = 05/08/09 Major high   33^2 = 07/11/09-3  = 07/08/09 Major Low
34^2 = 09/16/09      = 09/16/09 High            35^2 = 11/24/09+3  = 11/27/09 Dubai Low
36^2 = 02/03/10 +2 = 02/05/10 Major Low  37^2=  04/17/10  -2 = 04/15/10 High
38^2 = 07/01/10 Major Low                         39^2 = 9/16/10 Miss
40^2 = 12/04/10 was the 11/29/10L              41^2 = 02/23/11=> 2/18/11 High
42^2 = 05/17/11 Low                                    43^2 = 8/10/11 => 8/9/11 Low
44^2= 11/5/11 => 10/27/11 High                  45^2= 2/2/12 => 1/30/12 Low
46^2 = 5/3/12 => 5/1/12H                             47^2 = 8/4/12 è 8/2/12 Low
48^2 = 11/7/12  => 11/16/12 major Low       49^2 = 2/12/13 Miss
50^ 2 =5/22/13 => 5/22/13 High                   51^2 =8/31/13=8/28/13L   
52^2=12/12/13L                                            53^2 = 03/27/14  => 3/27/14 Low
54^2 = 07/12/14 is next

What's next: We make a 7/10-11 short term Low and rally into the next Solar and Geometric CIT.

Monday, June 23, 2014

Time and Cycle Review and Forecast

http://www.safehaven.com/article/34287/time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast


Review: The 6/2 T&C Cluster CIT from my last public post was a minor 6/2 Low.
We didn’t see any reversal lower, so shorts were not triggered.

Forecast from the June 7 weekend report: “Odds are good we will see higher highs Monday, 6/9. A couple of arguments for a 6/6-9 swing High: 1. Fibo: 10/11/07H-4/26/10H= 928 X 2.618 = 2430 CD +10/11/07H = 6/6/14. 2. The 423 hourly Cycle is due near the close 6/6 to open 6/9. 3. Mercury goes Retrograde on 6/7, often a CIT. From this 6/6-9 High, we should see a brief sharp decline into 6/11 Solar CIT. We expect a decent pullback of at least 30 SP’s (1930 SPX) to even 50+ SP’s to the 1900 SPX+/-10 area, before we bottom.”

Actual: We made a 6/9 swing High and saw a 30 SP decline into 6/12 Solar CIT Low of the week, before the rally into Option Expiration week.

Forecast from the June 19 report: “The 6/22 Solar CIT (change in Trend) is biased to be a 6/23 High and  targets major Long term channel resistance at 1966-68 SPX.”

Actual: We rallied into Monday 6/23 High, with an intraday Friday High of 1963.91 SPX so far.



The 35 week cycle has produced major Highs and Lows in the last 5 years: 3/6/09L-35 week-
11/2/09L-34-7/1/10L-33-2/18/11H-33-10/4/11L-35-6/4/12L-38-2/28/13-32-10/9/13L-37-6/27/14+/-.

The 333 TD/69 wks/484 Cycle has produced major Highs and Lows since the last 8 years :  
7/18/06L-325 TD-10/31/07H-338-3/06/09L-332-07/01/10L-335-10/27/11H-332-2/26/13L-333 TD-
6/23/14+/-.  The 333 TD or 69 wk cycle is double the 35 wk cycle and suggests a major CIT around 6/23/14+/- week.

What’s next: We make a 6/23 swing High. As all trends are up, we need a clear reversal lower no later than tomorrow to confirm this. We will then decline into my next upcoming Time Square, Geometric and Solar CIT major Cluster.




6/25 Update:   "As all trends are up, we need a clear reversal lower no later than tomorrow (6/24) to confirm this"

We finally saw a nice reversal lower yesterday, confirming a short term High is in.
We need to see a follow through decline to get a larger decline going.
 

Monday, June 2, 2014

The next major Time and Cycle Cluster

http://www.safehaven.com/article/34019/the-next-major-time-and-cycle-cluster

Review: In my last post, I was looking for a 5/22-23 High, based on the 5/22 Solar Time CIT (Change in Trend), but as soon as we rallied beyond 5/23, we knew right away, it was a rare miss as Solar CIT’s are maximum +/- 1 Trading Day (TD). Solar CITs have an unusual high 85-90% accuracy, but at times they have 10-15% misses.

The next major Time and Cycle (T&C) cluster is 5/30-6/3, centered on Monday 6/2, which is 1 TD from the Friday 5/30 Geo CITs, Sunday 6/1 is Solar CIT, 6/2 is a Time Square CIT (see below) and 6/3 Calendar to Trading Days CIT. 


The 35 TD +/-1 Cycle (click on chart to enlarge) is due on 6/3+/-1: 8/2/13H-9/19H-11/13L-12/31H-2/20/14L-4/11/14L-6/03/14H+/-.  There is a 207 TD Bank Cycle due on 6/2 +/-. There is also an hourly time CIT focused on the 1st hour of Monday 6/2.

Squares in Trading days CITs
The squares in Trading Days CIT is a Square of 9 timing technique that gives very
precise Change in Trends (CIT), all dates are +/-1 TD.


Red Lines are Square of 9 mostly Lows from 10/11/07H, the most recent one is 6/2 and should be a High.

1. 10/11/07H - 11/16/12L = 1285 Trading Days (TD), take the Square root of 1285 and
you get: 35.85^2 (35.85 squared)

Now increment that number by 1 or 2 each time and re square to get future CITs:
2. 35.85+2 = 37.85^2 = 1433 TD + 10/11/07H = 6/24/13L
3. 35.85+3 = 38.85^2 = 1509 TD + 10/11/07H = 10/10/13L-1
4. 35.85+4 = 39.85^2 = 1588 TD + 10/11/07H = 02/05/14L +1
5. 35.85 +5 =49.85^2 = 1669 TD + 10/11/07H = 06/02/14+/-1

Blue Lines are Square of 9 Highs from 10/11/07H.
Notice the increment is +2 each time on those lines
04/02/12H = 1127 TD = 33.57^2
10/18/12H = 1266 TD = 35.58^2
05/22/13H = 1412 TD = 37.58^2
12/31/13H = 1566 TD = 39.57^2

Calendar Days to Trading Days relationship in the market causes CITs.
10/4/11L: + 52 CD = 11/25/11L, + 53 TD = 12/19/11L
+181 CD = 04/02/12H, +182 TD = 06/25/12L
+241 CD = 06/01/12L, + 239 TD = 09/14/12H
+346 CD = 09/14/12H, +345 TD = 02/20/13H
+409 CD = 11/16/12L, + 409 TD = 05/22/13H
+454 CD = 12/31/12L, + 459 TD = 08/02/13H
+511 CD = 2/26/13L, + 506 TD = 10/09/13L
+596 CD = 5/22/13H, + 596 TD = 02/20/14 = 2/20/14L
+629 CD = 6/24/13L + 629 TD = 04/04/14H -1
+668 CD = 08/02/13H, +668 TD = 06/03/14+/-1

What’s next: We have rallied into the current T&C Cluster, centered on 6/2, suggesting a major swing High forming, which should be followed by a decline into the next Time and Cycle Cluster Low.

Friday, May 23, 2014

May 22-23 Swing High

http://www.safehaven.com/article/33907/may-22-23-swing-high

Forecast from last May 17-18 weekend: The 5/16 Geo CIT was most likely the 5/15L and we are now headed higher into the 5/22 Solar CIT, where we could retest the previous 5/13 ATH, but remain in the 4 week channel”

Actual: From the 5/15 Low, we rallied 34 SP’s into 5/22 High at 1896.33 SPX, retesting the 5/13 All time High at 1902.17 SPX.




A few days down, followed by a few days Up, this has been the non trending nature of the market for the last 5 weeks, frustrating Bull and Bear alike and making it relatively difficult to trade for many. We remain in this 5 week trading channel, with channel resistance at 1905 SPX and channel support at 1868 SPX channel support. All trends are up, but whichever way it breaks this 5 week channel will determine the next major trending direction.

What’s next:  Swing Traders: We make a May 22-23 swing High and start a decline soon after into the next major swing Low at the next Solar and Geometirc Time and Cycle cluster.

Intraday traders: Intraday 5 min SPX Change in Trend (Highs or Lows) Times to watch for Friday 05/23/14: 10.40, 11.05, 12.15, 12.40 pm Eastern.

Wednesday, April 23, 2014

April 22-24 is the next swing High

http://www.safehaven.com/article/33547/april-22-24-is-the-next-swing-high

In my last post on April 10, I was looking for a 4/11-14 major swing Low.

Forecast made in the 4/12 Raj T&C weekend report: "After the 4/11-14L, the bias is higher into 4/22-24H at the 4/21 Solar and 4/22& 4/24 geometric CIT."

Actual: We made an 4/11 Low as expected (click on chart to enlarge) and have so far rallied 70 SP's into 4/22 High, right at the upper edge of the 8.5 week large trading range & sideways channel.



What's Next: We make an 4/22-24 swing High at the 4/21 Solar, 4/22 Geometric and 4/24 Geometric CIT.

There are a cluster of 144 TD, 360 TD and 250/500 TD Cycles due the next 2 weeks.

144 TD cycles:
10 X 144 = 1440 TD + 08/11/08H= 5/01
09 X 144 = 1296 TD + 03/06/09L = 4/30, 1296 is also 36 Squared.
08 X 144 = 1152 TD + 09/03/09L = 4/4/14H!
07 X 144 = 1008 CD + 7/21/11H = 4/24
07 X 144 = 1008 TD + 4/26/10H = 4/28
06 X 144 =  864 TD + 11/16/10L = 4/25
05 X 144 =  720 TD + 06/16/11L = 4/29
04 X 144 =  576 TD + 12/19/11L = 4/4/14H! (-1 TD)
03 X 144 =  432 TD + 08/02/12L = 4/23
02 X 144 =  288 TD + 02/26/13L = 4/17
01 X 144 =  144 TD + 09/19/13H = 4/16

360 TD Cycles:

1 X 360 = 11/16/12L +   360 TD = 4/25
2 X 360 = 06/16/11L +   720 TD = 4/29
3 X 360 = 01/14/10H + 1080 TD = 4/30
4 X 360 = 08/11/08H + 1440 TD = 5/01

250 TD Cycles:
  500 + 05/01/12H = 4/29
  750 + 05/02/11H = 4/25
1000 + 04/26/10H = 4/16
1500 + 05/19/08H = 5/06
2000 + 05/08/06H = 4/21
2500 + 05/12/04L = 4/21
3000 + 05/07/02H = 4/21
3500 + 05/24/00L = 4/28
4000 + 06/16/98L = 5/12
4500 + 06/06/96H = 4/25
8000 + 08/09/82L = 4/30



Also due around this time are the Bond Market Interest Rates that has a regular long term 93 week cycle that has been active since January 2000. The last 93 week Cycle major Low (and Bond High) was the 7/25/12 Low at 24.52, piercing below the double bottom at 25.10-25.19.  The next 93 wk cycle is due in the April 25 2014 week +/- 2 wks and is biased to be an Interest Rate major Low.

Thursday, April 10, 2014

The Trapdoor to Hell

http://www.safehaven.com/article/33427/the-trapdoor-to-hell

For the last 7 weeks, the markets has been stuck in a large 50 SP Trading range, with 1835-40 SPX as critical Make or Break Trapdoor to Hell support and 1885-95 SPX as key resistance. We have now broken below the 1835-40 SPX Trapdoor to Hell, which should cause a sharper decline once we close below it.

In my last post, I mentioned: "We have been in a sideways trading range the last month, which ever way it breaks determines the next major direction in the markets." I was looking for a 3/28-31 Low." http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2014/03/raj-t-march-2014-review-forecast.html

Actual: The expected 3/28-31 Low was the 3/27 Low at 1842.11 SPX (1), 1 TD earlier. The 3/28 geometric CIT was the 3/27 Low. 3/27L was also as the 24 Squared week cycle Low and a Time squared CIT.

Updated forecast made on 4/2: The current bias is the 4/4 geometric Change in Trend (CIT) should be a swing High. 

Actual: We made fresh All time Highs at the 4/4 High at 1897.28 SPX and saw a Key reversal lower that day (2)


Forecast made on 4/7: Due to the many CITs in the coming week, we should see lots of volatility. From the 4/4 CIT High, we should decline into the 4/8 geometric CIT Low. We should then see a brief rally into 4/9-10H at the 4/10 geometric CIT. The decline then resumes into 4/11-14 Lows at the 4/11-14 T&C Cluster.

Actual: From the 4/4 High, we declined into 4/8 Low (3), rally into 4/10 High (4), reversed and decline into today 4/10 (5).

Friday 4/11 is the next proprietary Solar CIT and Monday 4/14 is the next important Trading day Squared CIT from 3/06/09 Major Lows:

Time Squares in TD from 03/06/09 Major Low has produced major Highs and Lows.
3/6/09L - 25.85^2 TD = 10/27/11H
3/6/09L - 27.84^2 TD = 04/02/12H
3/6/09L - 29.83^2 TD = 09/14/12H
3/6/09L - 31.83^2 TD = 03/18/13L (minor)
3/6/09L - 33.83^2 TD = 09/23/13H -2 (minor)
3/6/09L - 35.83^2 TD = 04/14/14 Next!

What's Next: We should make an 4/11-14 swing Low. The decline below 1835-40 SPX should see a sharper decline, but we should make an 4/11-14 Time Cluster CIT swing Low.

Friday, March 28, 2014

Raj T&C March 2014 Review & Forecast

http://www.safehaven.com/article/33266/raj-time-and-cycles-march-2014-review-and-forecast

In my last public post, I was looking for a 3/3-4 major Low. http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2014/03/raj-time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast.html

Since that 3/3 Low of the Month, we saw a sideways and choppy March Month. In early March 4, the important Times to watch for the month of March and the March 2014 Cycles forecast Roadmap was emailed. During the march month some times were revised 1-2 TD earlier (like the 3/17L, was adjusted to the 3/14L), but overall the forecast remained the same.

Important Times to watch for March 2014 (vertical Cyan Lines on chart, click to enlarge):

1. 3/3-4 has a 3/3 Solar CIT, 3/04 geometric CIT and 3/04 SP Cycle CIT.

2. 3/11 has a double geometric CIT and 3/12 is the next Solar CIT.

3. 3/17-18 double geometric CIT

4. 3/21 Solar CIT on Option Expiration (OE) day.

5. 3/28 geometric CIT, 3/31 Solar CIT and 7/18/06L + 53^2 = 03/27.



March 2014 Speculative Roadmap:

Forecast #1: (Red lines on chart) "We decline into the 3/3-4 Solar & geometric CIT Low"
Actual: We made a 3/3 Low of the Month at 1834.44 SPX.

Forecast #2: "From 3/3-4 Low, we rally into 3/11-12 Geometric and Solar CIT High"
Actual: We made a 3/11 High, that was a double Top with the 3/7 High.

Forecast #3: "From the 3/11-12 High, we then decline into 3/17-18 geometric CIT Low"
Actual: We declined into a 3/14-17 Low.

Forecast #4:  "We then rally into a 3/21 Solar CIT and Option Expiration (OE) High"
Actual: We rallied into a 3/21 OE High.

Forecast #5: "We then see a decline into 3/28-3/31 geometric & Solar CIT Low"
Actual: We declined so far into 3/27 Lows at 1842.11 SPX, close to my 1840 SPX target.

As can be seen in the examples above, the Solar and geometric Time CIT's are often exact, or at most +/- 1 day.

What's Next: We make a 3/28-31 CIT major Low, targeting 1830-40 SPX. There is another Low due at the 4/2-4 geometric CIT.The April important Times to watch and April Cycle Highs and Lows has been forecasted. We have been in a sideways trading range the last month, which ever way it breaks determines the next major direction in the markets.

3/31 Update: The expected 3/28-31 Low was the 3/27 Low, 1 TD earlier.
3/27 Low is also as the dominant 24 Squared week cycle Low (3/12/03L= 3/26/14L+1) and the 7/18/06L +52 Squared TD = 3/27/14 CIT Low. We are now bullishly biased.

Monday, March 3, 2014

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast: March 3-4 Low

http://www.safehaven.com/article/32970/raj-time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast-march-3-4-low

In my last public post, I was looking for a strong rally from the 2/5/14L Squared CIT Low. http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2014/02/raj-time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast.html

Forecast #1 (Cyan lines on chart) from my 2/4 Email Update: "We should decline into 2/5 Lows, then rally into 2/18 Highs"

Actual: We made a 2/5 Low and rallied a strong 110+ SP's into 2/19 Highs as expected.

Forecast #2 from my 2/18 Email Update: "The bias is then 2/18 geometric CIT High, down into 2/20 double geometric CIT Low, then up again into 2/24-25 Solar and double geometric CIT High."


Actual: We made a 2/19H, declined into 2/20L and rallied into a 2/24H as expected. We then went sideways to lower for 2-3 days into 2/27L.




Forecast #3 from my 2/28 Update: "The 24 squared week cycle has a long track record and suggests a 2/28H and sharp decline into 3/04L"

Actual: We made a marginally higher 2/28 All time High and are now seeing a sharp decline on Monday 3/3.

What's next: We should decline into the 3/3-4 major Time & Cycle cluster Low.
The 3/3-4 Time and Cycle Cluster has a 3/3 Solar CIT, 3/04 geometric CIT and the 3/04 Symmetry Cycle CIT. Also Mars goes Retrograde and Sun trine Jupiter on 3/1 and Saturn Retrogrades on 3/2. The 322-25 TD cycle: 4/26/10H-08/09/11L-11/16/12L-03/04/14L. The 43-46 TD Cycle: 4/18/13L-6/24L-8/28L-10/30H-12/31H-03/05/14.  More importantly, the 24 squared week cycle has a 2/28H and 3/04L. 

Friday, February 7, 2014

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast

http://www.safehaven.com/article/32688/raj-time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast

Review: In my last post, 3 weeks ago, on Jan 17, I was looking for a 1/17-21 swing High and start a decline that was part of a Panic Cycle. http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2014/01/the-active-panic-cycle.html

Actual:  We made a 1/21 swing high and saw a sharp 111+ SP decline so far. The Panic cycle was looking for an initial 50-60 SP decline, but we more than doubled that, with more to come.

From the 2/4 Update: “We are extremely oversold, but the decline should continue into 2/5 Low+/-1 at the 2/4 Solar and or 2/6 geometric CIT. The Symmetry Point Cycle suggested a 1/21 High and a 2/6 Low. Mercury becomes Retrograde on 2/6 as well, which is often a CIT. Downside support is the 6/24/13L-10/9/13L trend line support at 1738 SPX and the 50% retrace at 1738 SPX.”

Actual: The markets declined into a 2/5 Low, bottoming right at the 6/24/13L-10/09/13L Trend line support at 1738 SPX, at the 50% retrace from the 8/28/13L and 38% retrace from the 6/24/13L, both at 1738 SPX, 1 day after the 2/4 Solar CIT and 2/4 Squared Trading CIT and 1 day before the 2/6 geometric CIT, 2/6 SP Cycle CIT and 2/6 Mercury Retrograde CIT.

Squares in Trading days CITs

 


The above squares in Trading Days CIT is a Square of 9 timing technique that gives very precise Change in Trends (CIT), all dates are +/-1 TD.  

1. 10/11/07H - 11/16/12L = 1285 Trading Days (TD), take the Square root of 1285 and you get: 35.85^2 (35.85 squared)

Now increment that number by 1 or 2 each time and re square to get future CITs:

2. 35.85+2 = 37.85^2 = 1433 TD + 10/11/07H = 6/24/13L

3. 35.85+3 = 38.85^2 = 1509 TD + 10/11/07H = 10/10/13L-1

4. 35.85+4 = 39.85^2 = 1588 TD + 10/11/07H = 2/04/14 +1 = 2/5/14 Low

Please note that 2/4 was also a Solar CIT, suggesting strongly that 2/4 +/- 1 TD was going to be an important CIT. This became the 2/5 Low as expected.

What’s Next?: We made a 2/5 Low and should rally until the next swing High at the next proprietary Time and Cycle Cluster CIT, before we see yet another sharp decline. My next public post will be right after the next Panic Low.



2/9 Update Square of 9 CIT Dates

I had a conversation with Bruce Larson, who inspired me to look at these square of 9 CIT Dates.

Blue Lines are Bruce's Square of 9 Highs from 10/11/07H.
Notice the increment is +2 each time on those lines

04/02/12H = 1127 TD = 33.57^2
10/18/12H = 1266 TD = 35.58^2
05/22/13H = 1412 TD = 37.58^2
12/31/13H = 1566 TD = 39.57^2

Red Lines are my square of 9 Lows from 10/11/07H

1. 10/11/07H - 11/16/12L = 1285 Trading Days (TD) = 35.85^2
2. 37.85^2 = 1433 TD + 10/11/07H = 6/24/13L
3. 38.85^2 = 1509 TD + 10/11/07H = 10/10/13L-1
4. 39.85^2 = 1588 TD + 10/11/07H = 2/04/14 +1 = 2/5/14 Low


The 10/18/12H- 11/16/12L, 5/22/13H-6/24/13L and 12/31/13H-2/5/14L are Square of 9 fractals.

The High/Low relationship
10/18/12H-11/16/12L = 20 TD
05/22/13H-06/24/13L = 22 TD
12/31/13H-02/05/14L = 23 TD

Friday, January 17, 2014

The active Panic Cycle

http://www.safehaven.com/article/32432/the-active-panic-cycle

From my last public post:“We made a 12/31 High and have started a decline. There are some indications that we will see another High later on in January 2014.”

Actual: From the 12/31H, we declined 33.9 SP's into a 1/13 Low and have reversed higher since.

There are various unique Time and Cycles techniques used to determine important Change in Trends (CIT), Highs and Lows and Cycles Research to find “dominant or active” cycles is the most important and takes precedence above other timing techniques. If a cycle has been discovered to have predicted at least 3-5 recent swing Highs or Lows+/-1 day, it is considered dominant or active and can then predict future Highs and Lows, within 1 trading day accuracy, as opposed to fixed cycles, that are +/- many days and weeks. The active Cycle is best used in combination with the proprietary Solar and Geometric Timing CITs. The ideal is that they support and confirm each other, which increase the prediction accuracy to 90-95%.

A week or so ago an active/dominant Cycle was discovered, that is part of a larger upcoming Panic Cycle.
From the 1/12 Forecast: “The current dominant cycle has 6 direct hits and predicts a 1/9-10H, decline into 1/14L and then higher into 1/17 swing High, which should retest the 12/31 ATH and even see marginally higher Highs. We will have to see how it performs in OE manipulation week, which normally skews the Time and Cycles.”

Actual: We saw a 1/9-10 High, decline into 1/13 Low (-1), followed by a sharp reversal rally higher and we should rally into January 17-21 and see marginally higher All time Highs.


There is also a long term 228 TD/331 CD fixed Cycle (click on chart to enlarge) due on Jan 17-20, right at the 1/18 Solar Time CIT supporting the active Cycle’s 1/17 swing High.
The 331 CD/228 TD fixed Cycle: 8/11/08H-331-7/08/09L-335-6/8/10L-328-5/2/11H-336-04/02/12H-330-2/26/13L-328-1/17-21
So far the active Panic Cycle currently has 8 direct hits as it pinpointed:
1. 11/20/13 Low
2. 12/09/13H
3. 12/18/13 major Low
4. 12/31/13 swing High
5. 01/07/14 Low (-1)
6. 1/09/14 High
7. 1/14/14L (-1)
8. 1/17/14 swing High

What’s Next: We make a 1/17-21 swing High and start a decline into the next swing cycle Low and then rally once more. We will see a series of swing Highs and Lows, until a major swing High is reached, before the actual Panic wave starts. Be prepared, timing will be important.

1/23 Update: The active Panic Cycle is working its charm. Its focus is on the SPX. The 1/21 SPX High remained the High, while the NDX and BKX made a 1/22 High.  I have said enough publicly, clients are starting to complain.