Friday, February 12, 2016

Raj T&C Review and Forecast and Confluence with other markets

Actual: we made a 2/8 Low, 1 day later.

From the 2/8 evening Raj T&C Daily EmailThe updated cycle bias is this week sees a choppy week, with a 2/8L, 2/10H and 2/12-16 Low at the 2/12 Geo and 2/14 Solar weekend CIT and at the next 176-77 TD Cycle due 2/12. 
Actual: We saw a choppy week, with a 2/8 Low, 2/10 High and so far we saw 2/11 lower lows, 1 day earlier.



The next Time and Cycle Cluster is on 2/12-14

Times to Watch:
  1. Friday 2/12 Geo CIT & Sunday 2/14 Solar CIT

Cycles to watch:
1. The 176.5 Trading Day (TD) Cycle: 10/21/09H-173-7/1/10L-178-3/16/11L-177-11/25/11L-172-8/2/12L-177-4/18/13L-178-12/31/13H-181-9/19/14H—176- 6/03/15H—176-Friday 2/12/16.
2. The 90 CD Cycle: 5/20/15H-8/18/15H-11/16/15L- Sunday 2/14/16

What’s Next: We make an important 2/12 Low+/-1.


February 2016 SPX Confluence with  Crude Oil and Interest Rates


The 8 Month SPX cycle due is in February 2016 +/-1 Month, suggesting an important Low is due in February 2016 +/-1 month.



The Crude Oil has a monthly Apex CIT due in February 2016. As we have declined into it, it suggests a Crude Oil Low is due in February 2016 +/- 1 month.


The Bond Interest Rates has a reliable 93 week cycle Low that is due this February 2016 week.


Conclusion: There is a confluence in several markets for a February 2016 turning point that should be important to watch.

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Intraday Time and Cycles for Feb 10, 2016


Intraday 5 min SPX CITs 2/10: 10.30, 12.55, 2.35 pm Eastern, all +/-5-10 minutes
Intraday Cycle 2/10: (9.40L), 10.30H, 11.15L, 12.20H, 2.00L, 3.40H Eastern, all +/- 30 minutes. 

Bias is we see a Bullish Up day today and if by Noon we are higher than the 1st hour High, we have an 80% chance we see a last hour highest High. Tomorrow is biased lower.


11.00 am Eastern Update:


Good Morning,

All eyes are on Janet yellin's semiannual   HUMPHREY HAWKINS  testimony today and tomorrow since 10.00 am.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar


Daytraders: The intraday cycle sees a 1st hour 10.30 High, midday High and last hour High.

We gapped higher to a 10.35H, above the up channel and 1873 SPX resistance and have since retraced to 1863 SPX.

If we see a higher Midday High, above 1881.60 SPX, it indicates strength and we will have a (normal) 80% chance we see a last hour Highest High.

If we see a lower Midday High, below 1881.60 SPX, it indicates weakness and suggests we see a last hour lowest High and lower Low.


Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 2/10/16: 10.30, 12.55, 2.35 pm Eastern

Actual: 9.45L, 10.35H

Intraday Cycle is the Pink lines (9.40L), 10.30H, 11.15L, 12.20H, 2.00L, 3.40H

Actual: 9.45L, 10.35H, 11.10L

Tuesday sees a possible 9.40 cycle Low+/-, rally to a 10.30 cycle high at the 10.30 time CIT, decline to a 11.15 cycle Low+/-30, rally to a 12.20 cycle High at the 12.55 time CIT, decline to a 2.00 cycle Low at the 2.35 time CIT, rally to a 3.40 High+/-30.

Intraday Mebob Buy above 1866.50 /ES (Mar Emini SP)

Intraday Mebob Sell below 1861.50 /ES (Mar Emini SP)




2.30 pm Update: Update 2
Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 2/10/16: 10.30, 12.55, 2.35 pm Eastern

Actual: 10.35H, 1.05H

Intraday Cycle is the Pink lines (9.40L), 10.30H, 11.15L, 12.20H, 2.00L, 3.40H

Actual: 9.45L, 10.35H, 11.40L, 1.05H, 1.55L

The markets have been choppy since the 1st hour High, and still in an Up wave and we should still see a last hour High.

Markets are staying within the 5 minute sideways to up channel, with resistance at 1873 SPX and 1887 SPX

Tomorrow is an Inversion day, with a 79% chance we see a 1st hour Low and a 21% chance we invert to a 1st hour High.

Yellin also speaking tomorrow should have an influence.

Friday, February 5, 2016

Raj Time and Cycle Review & Forecast

http://safehaven.com/article/40374/raj-time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast

Review: In my January 22 blog post, I said: If History is any guidance, we should see a major crash Low between 1/20 and 1/26. There are some indications that 1/20/16 was that major Flash Crash Cycle Low, but we need to close solidly above the steep down channel to confirm that.
Actual: We closed above that steep down channel on 1/22, which confirmed 1/20/16 as the major mini crash Low.

From the 1/20/16 Raj T&C Email: The current cycle bias is from a 1/19L, we rally to a 1/22H and then decline into 1/27 lower Lows.
Actual: We made a 1/20L, 1 day later, rallied to a 1/22H (#1 on chart) and decline into a 1/27L (#2 on chart)

From the 1/25 Raj T&C weekend Email: The cycle bias is we made a 1/22H at the 1/22-23 CD to TD, Square, Over flight CIT, then decline into 1/27 Solar and T&C Cluster Lows, which should be a higher Low. From there we rally into a 2/2 High and then decline into 2/5 Low.
Actual: From the 1/27 Low, we rallied into 2/1 High (#3), 1 day earlier, and we saw a decline into 2/5 Low (#4) as expected.

What’s Next: We make a 2/5 Low+/-1 and see another rally phase.

Friday, January 22, 2016

The Flash Crash Cycle and the infamous 7 year Cycle

Actual: 1/6-8 was one of those rare 10% misses as we declined beyond that in a mini crash wave.

Review: Back on 12/17/14, more than a year ago, I posted about the 7 year cycle and the 360 TD Cycle, where I predicted an important CIT (Change in Trend) on 9/28/15 Blood Moon total Lunar Eclipse and again January 2016.

This 1800 TD/7 year cycle+/- has pinpointed major Highs and Lows in the past:
1.               10/11/07H – 12/05/14H =1800 TD (Trading Days)
2.               08/13/04L – 10/04/11L = 1798 TD
3.               03/12/03L – 04/26/10H = 1793 TD
4.               03/12/03L – 05/06/10L = 1801 TD (Flash Crash)
5.               09/21/01L  11/21/08L = 1805 TD
6.               09/01/00H – 10/11/07H = 1785 TD
7.               08/11/08H - 09/28/15H = 1792 TD
8.               11/21/08L  01/20/16L = 1800 TD
9.               11/21/08L  01/27/16L = 1805 TD

Review from 12/17/14:
“The future 9/28/15 Blood Moon total Lunar Eclipse is another biblical 7 years/1800 TD (Trading Days) from the 8/11/08 swing High, before the panic into 11/21/08 crash Low, which was 1805 TD from the 9/21/01 Crash Low and 1800 TD in the future is January 2016.”

Actual: We saw a 9/29/15 Spike Low and we saw a sharp 269.27 SP mini Crash into January 20 2016 Low, exactly 1800 TD from the 11/21/08 crash Low.

Many years ago, back on May 16 2010, I first discovered and posted on my blog about a 360 TD (Trading Day)/525CD Flash Crash Cycle. That Flash Crash Cycle was next due in January 2016, but as the cycle expands and contracts we needed to find the exact date for the Low.  5 X 360 TD cycle is the 1800 TD cycle, which is the well known 7 year Biblical cycle, which suggested a sharp decline in January 2016, being 7 years/1800 TD, from the 11/21/08 Crash Lows, which was 7 years/1805 TD from the 9/21/01 Crash Lows. The 1800 TD Cycle varies between 1790 and 1805 TD.

The 75 wk/525CD flash crash/360 TD Cycle had 2 misses between 8/13/04L and 11/21/08L and again between 10/4/11L and January 2016 Lows.
04/14/00L -358/525- 9/21/01L – 369/537- 3/12/03L -359/520 – 8/13/04L- 1078=
3X 360-2 or 3 X 520 CD+1 – 11/21/08L-356/521-4/26/10H-364/526-10/4/11L-+
3X 360-1, 3 X 523 CD   = 1/20/16L?
3X360+2, 3 X 525 CD   = 1/26/16L?


Since 04/14/00L the exact 360 Trading Day cycle has deviated +/- 2 to max 7 TD:
04/14/00.+ 0 TD=  04/14/00 Major Low
09/25/01 – 2 TD = 09/21/01 Major Low
03/03/03 + 7 TD = 03/12/13 Major Low
08/05/04 + 6 TD = 08/13/04 Major Low
11/17/08 + 4 TD = 11/21/08 Major Low
04/26/10 + 0 TD = 04/26/10 Major High
09/27/11 + 4 TD = 10/04/11 Major Low
01/13/14 + 4 TD = 01/20/16 Major Low?
01/13/14 + 7 TD = 01/25/16 Major Low?

Conclusion: The 360 TD Flash Crash Cycle predicted many crashes and major Lows in the past, including the 4/14/00 crash Low, 9/21/01 crash Low,  3/12/13 Low, 8/13/04 Low, 11/21/08 crash Low, 4/26/10 major High and 10/04/11 crash Low. If History is any guidance, we should see a major crash Low between 1/20 and 1/26. There are some indications that 1/20/16 was that major Flash Crash Cycle Low, but we need to close solidly above the steep down channel to confirm that.


What’s next: The next major CIT date in the 7 year/1800 TD cycle is late April to early May 2016, being 1800 TD from the 3/6/09 major Low. 



Wednesday, January 6, 2016

The January 6-8 2016 swing Low


From my 12/2 Raj T&C Daily Email: The Master cycle suggests a 12/1-2 High. We should then decline into 12/9 Solar CIT and into the next Scorpio Moon Low.

Actual: We made a 12/2 swing High and saw a sharp 111.01 SP decline into 12/14 swing Low, 1 Trading day from the 12/11 Scorpio Moon Low. The 12/9 Solar CIT was a rare 10-15% miss as the decline continued into the dominant Scorpio Moon Low.

From the 12/12 Raj T&C weekend report: “The current bias is we see a 12/11-14 Scorpio Moon Low and rally into 12/17 OE week High at the 12/17 Solar and Geometric time CIT and then start a decline into 12/23-24 Lower Lows, below 1993 SPX”

Actual: From the 12/14 swing Low, we saw a sharp 83.46 SP rally into 12/16-17 High at the 12/17 time CIT. Since then, we have seen a volatile chop that was difficult to trade into a 12/29 High, which was 2 trading days past the 12/23-25 Geo and Solar Time CIT.


The January 6-8  2016 swing Low

 Currently, there is a Master cycle1 (MC1) that predicted the 11/3H, 12/2H, 12/19L(-1 =12/18L), 12/30H (-1 =12/29H) and is now looking for a January 5-6 2016 swing Low and then a sharp reversal higher afterwards. This cycle bottoms 1-2 days earlier than the upcoming 1/7-8 major Time Cluster, Time Square of Lows and next Scorpio Moon Low.

January 7-8 major Time Cluster+/-1
1. 1/5 Mercury goes Retrograde
2. 23 TD Cycle+/-2: 1/6/16 +/-2
3. 1/7 double Geometric CIT.
4. 1/7 major Bradley Date
6. 1/8
Scorpio Moon
7. 1/8 Monthly Unemployment Numbers
8. 1/8 Jupiter goes Retrograde
9. Time Squares of Lows from 10/4/11L + 32.74 = 1072 =1/08/16L
10. 1/10 Solar CIT
11. 1/11 Geometric CIT.

The proprietary Solar and Geometric Time CITs (Change in Trend) are most important and all other timing methods, like Bradley, Astro, etc. serve as confluence and support for these 2 timing methods.

Debilitated Scorpio Moon
The Moon (mind/emotions) is debilitated (is weakest) in Scorpio and is shown as the red vertical lines. (Click on charts below to enlarge) In the last 15 months, 9 of them were major Lows +/-1-, 2 of them were near major Highs+/-1 and 4 were misses.

Recent Scorpio Moons that were Lows are:
1/16/15L, 3/11L, 5/6L, 6/30L, 7/7L,  8/24L, 10/14L-2, 11/16L+1, 12/14/15L+1

The last Scorpio Moon was the 12/14/15L. The next Scorpio Moon Low is on 1/08/16.

Time Square of Lows from 10/4/11L
+ 16.76 Squared TD =  281 TD = 11/16/12L+1
+ 18.74 Squared TD =  351 TD = 02/25/13L-2,
+ 20.74 Squared TD =  430 TD = 06/22/13L+1
+ 22.74 Squared TD =  517 TD = 10/24/13 - Miss
+ 24.74 Squared TD =  612 TD = 03/14/14L+1,
+ 26.74 Squared TD =  715 TD = 08/07/14L-1,
+ 28.74 Squared TD =  826 TD = 01/16/15L
+ 30.74 Squared TD =  945 TD = 07/08/15L-1,
+ 32.74 Squared TD = 1072 TD = 01/08/16L


From the October 4 2011 Low, we have a series of mathematical Time squares that project only Lows, the next one is due January 8 2016 +/-1.

Bonus: Intraday Time and Cycles for Jan 6 2016 (for those that like precision)

We have 2 important intraday Time CITs (High or Lows) to watch today:

  1. 9.40 eastern time CIT, which is possibly the Low of the Day
  2. 11.50 eastern time CIT, which should be another Low.

What’s next: We should see an important January 6-8 major swing Low and start a sharp rally afterwards.

Sunday, January 3, 2016

Vedic Astroloy: Rahu In Leo by James Kelleher

http://www.jameskelleher.com/index.php/home.html

Rahu In Leo
 January 9, 2016 - September 9, 2017 
(Yes, I use the True Node)

What better way to celebrate the new year than to anticipate a change of signs by the planet that is not really a planet, the significator of radical changes, Rahu.  For those of you who are saying Ra "who?",   Rahu and Ketu are the north and south nodes of the moon.  Technically, they are the points where  the Moon's orbit intersects the plane of the ecliptic. These points become important at the time of eclipses and are related to how the Sun or the Moon is blotted out by a shadow.   That is why Rahu and Ketu are called the chaya grahas, shadow planets.
  
Anyway, these two are obviously not really planets.  They have no physical presence.  For this reason, they signify a lack of clarity.  They tend to shadow or obfuscate the things related to the house where they are placed in the natal chart, and the house in which they are transiting.

Rahu and Ketu spend about 18 months (on the average) in a sign.  For the next 18 months they will be moving through the signs of Leo and Aquarius, respectively.  Rather than making this an opus grande, and trying to cover both of them in one article, I will talk about Ketu next month.  In this issue, I will talk about Rahu.

 In mythology, Rahu was a demon who wanted to get the nectar of the gods so badly that he ended up getting his head cut off.   The gods and the demons had been invited to a gathering where Vishnu, in the form of Mohini, a beautiful goddess,  was giving out the nectar to only the gods.  Rahu was desperate to get this nectar, which is the source of the god's immortality.  So he dressed up like a god, and sat between the Sun and the Moon.   When the nectar came around, Rahu took a sip and  imemediately became immortal.   Just then, the Sun and the Moon saw through his disguise and turned him in.  Vishnu immediately threw his discus and cut off Rahu's head.

Of course, he was already immortal, so it didn't kill him.  As his head was toppling from his body, Rahu cursed the Sun and the Moon for revealing his duplicity. From then on, Rahu has floated through the sky and, whenever he comes close enough to the sun or the Moon, he gobbles them up.  Naturally, having no body, they come out his neck immediately, which is how they explained eclipses in ancient times.

Following its mythological qualities, Rahu is considered to be the planet of sudden interruptions and unexpected events.  It is also considered to be an outcast.  So it represents all things foreign, unconventional and outside the box.  It is also the planet of things that are new, advanced, and cutting edge. It represents astrology, and it is also a planet of alternative healing modalities.

Rahu is also a planet of revolutionary change.  For example, in the chart of the United States, the Moon is in a nakshatra ruled by Rahu, which is why the US began with a revolutionary war.  At the moment, the USA is now beginning it's third Rahu period.  The first was characterized by the Revolutionary war and it's aftermath, the second Rahu period took place during the period from 1895 - 1913, which produced a technological revolution, and the third began in September of 2015.  I will be talking at length about this period during my annual presentation at East West Bookshop, in Mountain View California,  on January 30th.
So when Rahu transits through a sign or a house in a person's horoscope, it brings change and revolution to the things represented by that sign or house.  In Leo, and the nakshatras within that sign, Rahu will bring about it's revolutionary influence on the areas of self expression, rulers,  ancient  traditions,  spirituality, and wealth.  Leo is Ruled by the Sun, and since Rahu made no bones about his dislike for the Sun, this transit is also likely to increase tension and  difficulties world wide.   To add insult to injury, Mars and Saturn will be in a conjunction from late February to late September, so 2016 should contain more than its share of surprises.
During the first 8 months of this transit, Rahu will be conjoining Jupiter,  putting a good deal of pressure on Jupiter as well as creating Guru Chandala yoga.  This is a combination associated with outcasts, heretics and religious fanaticism.  This will probably create an increase in the pressure placed on ISIS by western countries, resulting in increased conflict.  It may also produce financial fluctuations. 

On the personal level,  Rahu's influence over the next 18 months will depend on what house it is transiting.  Normally there is an increased desire to make changes to the things represented by that house.   This can be a positive thing, if you are paying attention to your life and not simply sleepwalking .  Rahu can motivate you to blow up the stuck and stodgy aspects of the area of life that it is touching, and create a new and fresh condition.   It is the best planet for blasting us out of inertia. 

On the other hand, Rahu is also a planet of urgency.  In the story, Rahu was a guy who wanted the nectar of the gods so badly that he ended up getting his head cut off.   He got what he wanted, but it came at a price.  That price was the loss of his head.   In the real world, when Rahu transits a house, sometimes the person becomes so urgent about achieving the things represented by that house, that he sometimes acts rashly, resulting in unwanted side effects.  Like the guy who goes to buy a car, and becomes obsessed with the first shiny, red, convertible that he sees.  Without shopping around, he buys it on the spot.  A week later, he sees the same car advertised at half the price.  He got what he wanted, but his sense of urgency became the cause of mental distress.

So when Rahu transits through a house in your horoscope,  you are being challenged to bring constructive and intelligent revolution and change to the area of life represented by that house.  You are being asked to step outside the box, outside of the status quo, and reinvent that area.  But you are also being challenged to practice awareness and to not act only on a sense of urgency.  When you feel urgent or obsessed, the best idea is to step back, take a deep breath, and ask yourself if the idea you are intending to act upon, is actually as urgent as you think.   In this respect, I recommend a rule that I call "Rahu's Rule of Three".  If a strong desire to take some action, related to one of the significations of the house in which Rahu is transiting , comes up, then take a breath,  back off, and ask yourself if this is actually something that will lead you in a positive direction.  Then wait and see if it comes back a few days later.  If so, and if it seems like a good idea, then back off again and continue to patiently think about the idea for a while.  If it comes back a third time and you still think the action will serve you, then go for it.

To learn everything you ever wanted to know about Rahu and Ketu,  go to my website and download Unbelievably Wonderful Rahu and Ketu.  This is a two hour presentation that can be very helpful for understanding these two shadow planets, and for facilitating the process of getting  the most out of the upcoming Rahu and Ketu transits.

The following is a description of how Rahu in Leo might affect you from January 9, 2016 - September 9, 2017.    You can read the predictions given for your sun sign, but be sure to check the birth dates assigned to each Sun sign carefully, since we use a different Zodiac in Vedic astrology.   If you happen to know your Moon Sign,  Lagna, or Arudha Lagna, you can also read the results given for those signs as well. 

For all of the predictions given below,  I am giving a description of the various areas of life that may be affected by Rahu's transit.  In whatever area of life Rahu is affecting, it is important to watch your sense of urgency or the level of your attraction to that area.  Rahu's transit could make you intensely interested and passionate about something,  but it can also bring imbalance and obsessive involvement.  

Sometimes Rahu brings a sense of urgency in the form of worry, but normally the worries are not totally based in reality.   So whether you experience the area of life that Rahu is affecting in a positive way or a negative way, the key is to take a step back and try to see how your own attachment  and strong desire is causing a lack of balance.   Also ask yourself, how can I step outside of the box, and constructively change and revolutionize this area of my life.  And if that sounds like a recipe for a new year's resolution,  then go for it!


Vedic Sun Signs
Apr 14 - May 14  (Aries)   This period can promote romantin iterests, involvement with children, creativity, and education.   You might find yourself quite interested or even a little obsessed with any or all of these areas. 
May 15 - Jun 14 (Taurus).   During this period you might feel a strong desire to change or simply remodel your residence.  Avoid making big changes on impulse of out of a sense of urgency
Jun 15 - Jul 15 (Gemini)   You might feel a strong desire to communicate, study, do research, or simply gather information on the internet.  This period can also stimulate a good deal of short journeys and errands.
Jul 16 - Aug 16 (Cancer)   Rahu may give you the impulse to spend money or make money. In either case, take it easy.  Don't buy or spend on impulse.  This is also a period to monitor any addictive tendencies and to make some positive changes in your diet.
Aug 17 - Sep 16  (Leo)   During this period you could have a strong desire to express yourself.  You might also feel the desire to reinvent yourself.  This is a good time for putting an extra dose of ambitious energy into your career.
Sep 17 - Oct 16  (Virgo)   Rahu is transiting  through your 12th house, so it might stimulate an interest in foreign travel, or travel to exotic places.   This transit also suggests restless sleep and strange dreams.  Doing things that calm the mind, like meditation, can be quite helpful.
Oct 17 - Nov 15 (Libra)    During its transit of Leo, Rahu is pointing to the house of friendship.  This might suggest a greater interest in connecting with friends, groups, teams or organizations.  This is a good period for accomplishing goals, but it is important to also find time to relax and smell the flowers.
Nov 16 -Dec 15 (Scorpio)   Rahu is transiting your career house, so this period favors accomplishments at work and may get you to work at a hundred and ten percent.   This is also a good time for making constructive changes in your career, by either redefining it from within, or by completely changing it.
Dec 16 - Jan 13 (Sagittarius)  During this period, you might become attracted to esoteric or alternative spiritual concepts.  You might also feel the urge to travel to a foreign country or an exotic place.
Jan 14 - Feb 12 (Capricorn).    This period will bring about a number of changes.  It is a time of transformation and metamorphosis.  Change is good, but it is also good to not make changes purely out of a sense of urgency or restlessness.  So take your time and pay attention to your intuition.
Feb 13 - Mar 13 (Aquarius).   This period focuses on relationships and partnerships.  You might feel a strong desire to get into a relationship at this time, but in this respect, it is always good to take your time, especially if you feel very strongly attracted to someone.  Sometimes this transit produces an infatuation that doesn't always pan out.  Other times, it produces a relationships with someone foreign or unconventional.  If you are already in a relationship, this is a period to revolutionize it. 
Mar 14 - Apr 13 (Pisces)     During this period you might find yourself attracted to alternative healing modalities.   So the best idea is to do it pro-actively, in advance, as preventative medicine.  
World Predictions 2016

 I will be giving my World Predictions 2016  Presentation on January 30th.  Check my schedule, below, for more details.
Mercury Retrograde

Mercury will be retrograde from January 5 - January 25, 2016.  This is generally not a good time for signing documents or starting important undertakings.   

It is a good time for editing anything that has to do with language and also for doing research.