Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Intraday Time and Cycles 11/15/16 Review, Forecast versus Actual

Forecast: "The intraday cycle sees a 1st hour High, midday High and last hour High"


Actual: We did see a 10.20 1st hour High, 12.15 midday High and 4.15 last hour High of Day.

Forecast 11/16/16: Tomorrow sees a 1st hour Low, midday Low and last hour Low.

Intraday Time and Cycles 11/15/16

Daytraders: The intraday cycle sees a 1st hour High, midday High and last hour High.

If the midday High is higher than the 1st hour High, it indicates underlying strength and suggests a last hour highest High.

If the midday High is lower than the 1st hour High, it indicates underlying weakness and suggests a last hour lowest High and lower Lows.

Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 11/14/16: 10.35, 1.50 pm Eastern

Intraday Cycle is the Pink lines (9.40L), 10.00H, 11.00L, 12.30H, 2.30L, 3.20-50H

Tuesday sees a possible 9.40 cycle Low+/-, rally to a 10.00 cycle High at the 10.35 time CIT, decline to a 11.00 cycle Low+/-30, rally to a 12.30 cycle High+/-30, decline to a 2.30 cycle Low at the 1.50 time CIT, rally to a 3.20-50 cycle High+/-30 min.




    1. We saw a 10.20 1st hour High so far
    2. 2181-82 SPX is resistance.
    3. There is a good chance we erase today's gains by tomorrow's close, which is biased to be lower.
  1. We saw a 12.10H that was slightly lower than the 1st hour High, indicating some underlying weakness and markets are stalling

Friday, November 4, 2016

The 47 TD Cycle predicted the 9/7H and remains on track for a 11/8 Low


Forecasts from my last 10/21 public post"The 47 TD (Trading Days) alternating cycle, mentioned on September 9 2016, was looking for an early September High... 34 TD after the last 47 High is also a CIT...The 41-42 week cycle mentioned in that same post, also topped out at the same time and has an average 107 SP decline...The 47 TD Cycle suggests we see a choppy decline into 11/8 election Low, targeting 2093 SPX or 2069 SPX"


Actual: The last 47 TD cycle was the 9/7H  and 33 TD later, we made an 10/24 swing High and declined a sharp 105 SP's from that 9/7H and 109 SP's from the 8/15H, fulfilling the 41-42 week price targets into 11/4 Low at 2083.79 SPX, close to the 200 DMA at 2082.30 SPX, and 2 TD from the projected 11/8L. 


Numerology & the markets:

108 has been recently actively vibrating: 

It has been 108 years since the Cubs won the World series.

http://www.sanskritimagazine.com/rituals_and_practices/importance-of-108-number/

so I figured 108 must also be active in the markets and found this cycle


108 week+/-1 wk Cycle: 8/27/10L - 9/14/12H - 10/15/14L - 11/08/16 +/-1 week.



There is also a 350 TD cycle that is due on 11/08/16 +/- week. Of course, all the fixed cycles can and do expand or contract, so the Low could already be in today 11/4, but there is a real election angst that should cause choppiness to lower into 11/8.

What's Next: The 47 TD Cycle is still suggesting a 11/8 Low+/-3 TD.

Friday, October 21, 2016

The Dominant alternating cycle

http://safehaven.com/article/42824/the-dominant-alternating-cycle

I first mentioned the 47 TD alternating cycle back on September 9 2016, when it was looking for an early September High. The 41-42 week cycle mentioned in that same post, also topped out at the same time and has an average 107 SP decline. 


The dominant 47 TD (Trading Days) alternating High and Low cycle has been in the markets since late September 2015 and suggests a 11/08/16 Election Low, with a minimum 2093 SPX channel Target.
                                                                                 
1. 09/29/15L - 12/02/15H, Low to High.
2. 12/02/15H - 02/11/16L, High to Low.
3. 02/11/16L - 04/20/16H, Low to High.
4. 04/20/16H - 06/27/16L, High to Low.
5. 06/27/16L – 09/07/16H, Low to High.
6. 09/07/16H – 11/08/16L, High to Low is next!

Also notice 34 TD, after the 47 TD Cycle High or Low is also a CIT (High or Low):
  1. 09/29/15L – 11/16/15L = 34 TD
  2. 12/02/15H – 01/20/16L = 32 TD
  3. 02/11/16H – 04/01/16H = 34 TD
  4. 04/20/16H – 06/08/16H = 34 TD
  5. 06/27/16L – 08/15/16H = 34 TD
  6. 09/01/16L – 10/19/16H = 33 TD


The Dow Jones
down channel support touches the 61.8% retrace by 11/8. If we do the same 61.8% in the SPX we will target 2069 SPX at the 200 DMA.

Conclusion:  The 34 TD CIT of the 47 TD Cycle arrived 1 day earlier at the 10/19H at 2148.44 SPX, which was a double Top with the 10/14 Apex CIT High at 2149.19 SPX.  From the 10/19H, the 47 TD Cycle suggests we see a choppy decline into 11/8 election Low, targeting 2093 SPX or 2069 SPX and a strong rally afterwards.

Monday, October 17, 2016

Friday, October 14, 2016

Intraday 10/14 Update Forecast

Intraday 10/14  10.30 am Forecast Update:

Globex futures have been sharply higher, currently Up +11, on the latest news http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/14/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html 

Often (80%), though not always, when Globex futures have been higher all night, we see the High of Day at the open or in the 1st hour.


We gapped sharply higher and saw a 10.20H at 2143 /ES, right at trend line resistance.

There is an hourly Apex CIT at 10.35-11.40 +/- am today.

The intraday cycle sees a 1st hour Low, midday Low and last hour Low.

If the midday Low is lower than the 1st hour Low, it indicates underlying weakness and suggests a last hour lowest Low.

If the midday Low is higher than the 1st hour Low, it indicates underlying strength and suggests a last hour highest Low and higher High.


Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 10/14/16: 12.35, 12.50, 3.20 pm Eastern

Intraday Cycle is the Pink lines (9.40H), 10.20L, 11.15H, 12.30L, 2.00H, 3.10L

Actual: 9.50H, 10.05L, 10.20H

Friday sees a possible 9.40 cycle High+/-, decline to a 10.20 cycle Low+/-30, rally to a 11.15 cycle High+/-30, decline to a 12.30 cycle Low at the 12.35 or 12.50 time CIT, rally to a 2.00 cycle High+/-30, decline to a 3.10 cycle Low at the 3.20 time CIT.


Tuesday, October 11, 2016

10/11 update



Quote

from 10/10: "We are right now at triangle resistance  at 2163.50 /ES and 2170 SPX.  The intraday cycle today is biased higher and tomorrow is biased lower."

The markets topped yesterday right at triangle resistance at 2163.50 /ES and 2169.60 SPX and promptly reversed into this morning's Lows

It remains a daytraders market, but we are still expecting an 10/10L+/-1

We gapped sharply lower this morning to a 10.25 1st hour Low at 2139.75 /ES, right at trendline support.

emini.png

The intraday cycle today sees a 1st hour Low, midday Low and last hour Low.

If the midday Low is lower than the 1st hour Low, it suggests underlying weakness and suggests we will see a last hour lowest Low.

If the midday Low is higher than the 1st hour Low, it suggests underlying strength and suggests we will see a last hour higher Low and higher High.

Tomorrow is an Inversion day, with a 79% chance we see a 1st hour 10.20 High and a 21% chance we invert to a 1st hour 10.20 Low.

Sunday, October 9, 2016

10/10 short term Low

Review: In my 9/22 last public post, "I was looking for a 9/23 High"

Forecast #1&2 from the 9/22 Raj T&C Daily Email: "The Cycle bias we rally into 9/23H and then decline into 9/29L"

Actual: We saw a 9/22H (#1 on chart below), 1 day earlier that remains the High todate, also the publicly forecasted 9/7H, remains the High todate. From the 9/22H we saw a choppy decline into 9/29L (#2) as expected.



Forecast #3&4 from the 9/25 Weekend Report: "The updated Cycle bias is we see a decline into Monday 9/26L and a retest 9/29L, then see a rally into Monday 10/3 solar CIT High and decline into Monday 10/10L"

Actual: We saw a 9/26L and a retest 9/29L, then a rally into Friday 9/30H (#3), 1 day earlier than the 10/3H and then we saw a choppy decline into Friday 10/7L, which may be the Low, 1 day away from Monday's projected 10/10L+/-1 (#4)

What's Next: Monday 10/10+/-1 should be the next short term Low and we rally into the next Time and Cycle Cluster High. The current compressed market suggests a larger trending move is due soon, be prepared.





Thursday, September 22, 2016

9/23 swing High!

http://safehaven.com/article/42589/923-swing-high

Forecast from my 9/9 public post, I was looking for a 9/7 major High and a 9/12 Solar CIT.

Actual: 9/7H remains an important major High and 9/12 Solar CIT was a large range day that was both a High and Low. 


Forecast from the 9/18 weekend Report:  "9/19-23 should be volatile and choppy into 9/21 Fed CIT, but bias is 9/19H, 9/21L and rally into 9/23H. The Ezekiel Wheel cycle has 9/8H, 9/21-22L, 9/23H and decline into XXX Low."

ActualSince the 9/12 CIT Low, we saw a volatile chop into 9/21 Fed Day and formed a triangle, with a 9/19H, 9/21L and we are rallying into Friday 9/23H at the 9/23 Geo CIT and 9/23-26 Apex CIT. We back-kissed the old 2 month channel resistance yesterday.


What's Next: 9/23 +/-1 is the next swing High and the start of a relatively sharp decline.


Below is today's Daytrading's outlook:



Daytraders: The intraday cycle is a Low am to High pm day or Inverse, "with a possible 9.40 cycle High+/-, decline to a 10.30 cycle Low at the 10.15 time CIT."

We saw a 9.40H and a 10.15 1st hour Low. We should see a midday and last hour High.

Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 9/23/16: 10.15, 1.15 pm 


Actual: 10.15L

Intraday Cycle is the Pink lines  (9.40H), 10.30L, 12.45H, 1.40L, 3.30H

Actual: 9.40H, 10.15L

Friday sees a Low am to High pm day (or Inverse), with a possible 9.40 cycle High+/-, decline to a 10.30 cycle Low at the 10.15 time CIT, rally to a 12.45 cycle High+/-30, decline to a 1.40 cycle Low at the 1.15 time CIT, rally to a 3.30 cycle High+/-30 min.

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Quick Update

From the 9/10 weekend Report:
" Cycle bias is we decline into 9/12 Solar CIT Low, bounce for 1-2 days into 9/12-13H, then decline again into XXXX Some cycles suggests a sharp decline coming."

From last night's 9/12 email: 
"There are high odds we pullback tomorrow, at least 20+ SP’s or more"

Actual: We saw a 9/12 Low and High and today we are seeing the resumption of the downtrend.
Taking out yesterday's Low at 2119.12 SPX is an additional confirmation.