Wednesday, April 17, 2019

and the beat goes on..

and the beat goes on. Shorter term, we could sell channel resistance and buy channel support until the channel breaks.

Monday, April 15, 2019

Stuck in a narrow compressed Up channel the last 2 weeks

Stuck in a narrow compressed Up channel the last 2 weeks, once it breaks, it should be relatively sharp and fast.

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

The Master Cycle Update: 4/2-3 High

In my last post, I was looking for a 3/4 swing High

From 3/4 Raj T&C Daily Email: I found a possible Master Cycle (MC) that forecasted the:

1. 09/21/18H
2. 10/29/18L
3. 11/07/18H
4. 12/03/18H
5. 12/26/18 major Low.

It is now suggesting a 3/05 swing High, followed by a decline into 3/11L, up into 3/14-15H, 3/19L, 3/21H. I don’t expect this cycle to follow perfectly all the details, as it has been off at times by 1-2 TD, but it should generally be in there."

Actual: 
1. 3/05H => 3/4 short term swing High, 1 TD earlier
2. 3/11L => 3/8 Low, 1 TD earlier
3.3/14-15H =>  Miss
4. 3/19L => 3/20L, 1 TD earlier
5. 3/21H => 3/21 High.

From the above we see that although the MC is not perfect as it had 1 miss, the cycle is still "active" with future hits +/-2. The MC is a time Cycle that doesn't predict Price Magnitude.


From 3/21 & 3/27 Raj T&C Daily Email: "The MC suggests a 3/21H, decline into 3/27L, rally into 4/2 swing High"

Actual:
6. 3/27L => 3/25L, 2 TD earlier, 3/27 retest Low
7. 4/2H => We are currently rallying into 4/2H


There is a 16 TD, 66 TD and 25 TD fixed cycle supporting an 4/3-5 CIT as well.

Conclusion and what's Next: The Master Cycle has had some misses and is not perfect, but it remains in the markets with "active" hits +/-1-2 TD and is now suggesting an 4/2 swing High+/-2 at the 4/2 Geometric Time CIT, 4/4-5 Time Square CIT and 16, 25 and 66 TD Cycles due 4/3-5.



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Wednesday, March 6, 2019

Hourly Channel support breaking...

Hourly Channel support breaking...

Hourly channel support has held since 12/28/18 and is currently at 2777 SPX, a break below that is an initial sell signal.

Tuesday, March 5, 2019

The Master Cycle suggests a 3/4-05 major swing High

Review from 2/26/19 Report: "The 2/21 time Square CIT High could be the overdue 45 TD Hurst swing 2/25H, along with the 2/22 time Geo and 2/23 (2/22-25) Solar Time CITs."

"There is a CD to TD CIT is on 2/28, along with 25 TD cycle due 3/1, the 3/1 Bradley and 3/4 Emini Apex CIT is biased to be another High."



Review from 2/27/19 Update: "We are seeing a further decline this morning, confirming the 2/25H is in place, but after a 2/27L, we are still expecting another High due 3/1-4 lower or higher High."

Actual: We made a 2/25H, declined into 2/27L and made a 3/4H



What's Next: There is a proprietary Master Cycle (MC) that forecasted:

1. 9/21/18H
2. 10/29/18L
3. 11/7/18H
4. 12/3/18H
5. 12/26/18 major Low

The MC can be off by 1-2 TD, but it has been generally in there.  

The MC now suggests a 3/04-05 major swing Highfollowed by a sharp decline into XXX. 



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Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Thursday, February 14, 2019

Triangle Apex CIT 2/13 at Open High

Triangle Apex CIT with 5 waves up. The 2/13H @ Open was the 2/12-13 Apex time CIT (Change in Trend), 2/12 double Geometric time CIT and intraday 2/12 last hourly CIT and 2/12 Close-2/13 Open CIT. Time was Up.

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

The 94 Trading Day Cycle 2/12 swing High

Review: From 1/31/19 Update: "Markets have rallied above the mini wave 4 bullish pennant/triangle pattern in a 5th wave rally. The triangle targets 2739 SPX, right at the 200 DMA at 2741.47 SPX, which is major resistance. "

From 2/5/19 Update: "We are rallying into 2/5 Solar time CIT (Change in Trend) suggesting a 2/5H in the make, but as bullish momentum remains strong and all trends remain Up, we go with the flow and wait for a trend reversal lower before considering any shorts"

Actual: We reached our outstanding 2739 SPX Triangle Target, right at the 200 DMA at the 2/5 Solar CIT High, which remains the Highs to date.



We are currently rallying into the next 94 Trading Day (TD) Cycle, that last saw the 9/21/18 major High and is next due 2/11/19+/-3. The 94 TD Cycle has been consistently in the markets for more than 4 years now, since the 12/29/14H and has been often exact, but at times off 3-4 Trading Days.



The same triangle that projected 2739 SPX price target has an Apex CIT due today 2/12, right at the double 2/12 Geometric time CITs and the 94 TD Cycle suggesting a 2/12 swing High being made.


All trends remains up, since the projected 12/26/18 major Low and the markets have been in an hourly up channel. We would need to break this up channel to get an initial Sell signal.

What's Next: We should make a 2/12 swing High+/- and start a retrace.





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Monday, January 14, 2019

From 12/26 FC Low into 1/11/19 swing High

From our last public 12/24/18 post: "Markets are right on schedule (for the 75 week Flash Crash Low)"

From 12/26/18 Raj T&C Daily Email: "The infamous Flash Crash 75 week cycle pinpointed the 9/21/18 major High and has been declining into the 12/24-27 Flash Crash week Lows at the 12/27-1/02/19 quadruple time CITs and the 12/21-28 Cycle Cluster. The swing cycle is looking for a 12/24-27 Flash Crash Low and a rally into 1/11/19H"



Actual: The markets bottomed on 12/26 major FC Low at 2346.60 SPX and has rallied a whopping 251+ SP's into 1/10-11H.


From Friday 1/11 Update: "We have a last hourly time CIT that is biased to be the HOD (High of Day) and if seen, then Monday gaps lower and is baised lower"


Actual: We saw a last hour HOD Friday and Monday is gapping lower as expected.


What's next: From the 1/11 swing High, we start a volatile decline.




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Tuesday, December 25, 2018

Thursday, December 20, 2018

The Flash Crash cycle is in progress right now

From 12/12 Twitter and public blog update:
NDX is at long term channel support, a break below could trigger the Flash Crash cycle wave due in December 2018

I have written extensively about my discovery of the Flash Crash (FC) cycle in past posts 

I first mentioned the Flash Crash cycle back in May 2010, when the Flash Crash happened and I discovered then there was a regular Flash Crash cycle, which is a Gann 360 TD/525 Calender day/75 week crash cycle.

On September 2011 for example, the FC cycle was predicting an October 2011 FC Low: http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/09/flash-crash-cycle.html

Actual: We saw an 10/4/11 major Low




The Flash Crash 525 CD cycle 
04/14/00L - 09/21/01L = 525 CD = 75 weeks = 2.618 X 200 CD = 523.6
04/14/00L - 03/12/03L = 1062 CD = 2.02 X 525 CD = 03/12/03 Major Low
04/14/00L - 08/13/04L = 1582 CD = 3.01 X 525 CD = 08/13/04 Major Low
04/14/00L - 11/21/08L = 3143 CD = 5.99 X 525 CD = 11/21/08 Major Low,
04/14/00L - 05/06/10L = 3674 CD = 7.00 X 525 CD = 05/06/10 flash Crash,
04/14/00L - 10/14/11L = 4200 CD = 7.98 X 525 CD = 10/04/11L, Major Low.





The Flash Crash 75 week cycle 
04/14/00L – 09/21/01L = 01 X 358.00 TD = 01 X 525 CD = 01 X 75.00 weeks
04/14/00L – 03/12/03L = 02 X 363.50 TD = 02 X 531 CD = 02 X 75.86 weeks
04/14/00L – 08/13/04L = 03 X 362.00 TD = 03 X 527 CD = 03 X 73.33 weeks
04/14/00L – 11/21/08L = 06 X 360.67 TD = 06 X 524 CD = 06 X 74.83 weeks
04/14/00L – 05/06/10L = 07 X 361.14 TD = 07 X 525 CD = 07 X 74.98 weeks
04/14/00L – 10/04/11L = 08 X 360.63 TD = 08 X 524 CD = 08 X 74.82 weeks
04/14/00L – 01/20/16L = 11 X 360.36 TD = 11 X 524 CD = 11 X 74.79 weeks

7 out of 9 FC Cycles saw 7%-26% (avg 12-14%) declines and most are in 2-3 wks
03/24/00H - 04/14/00L was a 14% decline in 3 weeks
08/31/01H - 09/21/01L was a 20% decline in 3 weeks
01/31/13H - 03/12/03L was a 16% decline in 8 weeks
06/24/04H - 08/13/04L was a 7% decline in 7 weeks
11/04/08H - 11/21/08L was a 26% decline in 3 weeks
04/26/10H - 05/06/10L was a 12% decline in 3 weeks
09/16/11H - 10/04/11L was a 12% decline in 2 weeks


The 360 TD Cycle is about 75 weeks, which has been in the markets ever since the April 14 2000 mini Crash Low and has since pinpointed 8 major crash Lows in the past 17 years, including the 4/14/00 mini crash Low, 9/21/01 crash Low, 3/12/03L, 8/13/04L, 11/2108 crash Low, 5/6/10 Flash Crash, 10/04/11 Low and more recently the 1/20/16 crash Low.

Many of the 360 TD/75 week flash crash cycle Lows were major Panic Lows, like the 4/14/00 Low, 9/21/01 Panic Low and the 11/21/08 Banking crisis Low. A few, like the 3/12/03 Low and 8/13/04 Low were not Panic Lows, but still major Lows.  At times the FC Cycle skips a beat, out of the last 12, 8 (67%) were direct hits and 4 (33%) were misses.

Conclusion: The 360 TD Flash Crash Cycle predicted many crashes and major Lows in the past, including the 4/14/00 crash Low, 9/21/01 crash Low,  3/12/13 Low, 8/13/04 Low, 11/21/08 crash Low, 5/6/10 FC, 10/04/11 crash Low, 1/20/16 Crash Low and now again in December 2018 Lows. Some were misses, but in general, it is a regular cycle to be reckoned with.The Flash crash (FC) cycle, once active sees an average 12-14% decline in a few weeks. As the Flash Crash (FC) Cycle is a 1 1/2 year fixed cycle, it will have a +/- variance of a few weeks, so timing the exact Low will be Key as once the Flash Crash cycle bottoms, we will see a sharp rally afterwards.




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Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Flash Crash cycle

NDX is at long term channel support, a break below could trigger the Flash Crash cycle wave due in December 2018

Tuesday, December 11, 2018

December 10 swing Low

In my last public updates on 11/25 and 11/26, we were looking for a 11/23-26 swing Low.

From the 11/25 Raj T&C weekend Report: "We are declining into the 11/23-26 T&C Cluster suggesting a 11/23-26 swing Low (#1 on chart), we should then rally into 12/3H (#2) and see another decline into 12/10L (#3)We are expecting a hard retest of that 11/26L at the 12/10L. There is an outstanding 2580 SPX flagpole target"




Actual: We bottomed on 11/23 Low, rallied 169.10 SP's into 12/3 High and saw a sharper 217 SP decline into the 12/10 Lows, reaching our 2580 SPX Flagpole target.


What's Next: 12/10 should be another swing Low and we start another sharp rally into XXX swing High and see another decline afterwards.




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Monday, November 26, 2018