Thursday, May 9, 2019

Next Time & Cycle Cluster is coming

My last Time and Cycle cluster was the 5/1-3 major High

We mentioned that once we broke below the 4-5 week compressed mini up channel, we would see a sharp and fast decline, which we are seeing right now. 

My next Time and cycle cluster should be a mini crash Low. Are you ready to rock and roll?

Thursday, May 2, 2019

Tuesday, April 30, 2019

Time & Cycle cluster: 4/30-5/3


For a number of weeks now, I have had 4/30-5/3 as a Time & Cycle Cluster, where I was expecting a swing Low to be made. However, we have been in a relative narrow compressed channel & trading range these last 4 weeks.  


In these "Stuck Up" markets the last 4 weeks, the normal Time and Cycles gets ignored, so we will have to see if we are seeing a swing Low or a High in this time period.

Time: 

4/30: Saturn Retro 4/29-30
4/30: Solar Time CIT: 4/30
5/2: 9 Days of MD Cycle: 5/2/19
5/3: Apex of the rising wedge due 5/3


5/3:4661 TD 
07/19/99H +4661= 01/26/18H
10/18/99L +4664= 05/03/18L
03/24/00H +4660=10/03/18H
04/14/00L +4663= 10/29/18L
05/24/00L +4659= 12/03/18H
09/01/00H +4661= 03/21/18H
10/18/00L +4660= 05/03/19


Cycles: The 77 TD,136 TD, 316-17 TD/461 CD cycles and 96 weeks/672 CD Cycle  are all due end April to early May.


77-78 TD Cycle: 11/4/16L-78-3/1/17H-76-6/19/17H-2X76-1/26/18H-80-5/22/18H-75-9/07/18L-75-12/26/18LL-80-4/29/18

136 TD Cycle: 4/29/18

461 CD/317 TD Cycle: 7/1/10L -460-10/4/11L-454-12/31/12L-466-4/11/14L-465-7/20/15H-473-11/4/16L-448-1/26/18H-461-4/30-5/3/19

Alternative Path: 11/4/16L – 462- 2/9/18L -461- 5/15/19

96 wks/ 672 CD/ 463 TD cycle of Lows: 4/14/97L-3X668- 10/10/02L-672-8/13/04L-670-6/14/06L-2X676- 2/25/10L-12/19/11L- 2 X 672 = 8/24/15L-6/26/17L+34/29/19



Conclusion: 4/30-5/3 Time and Cycle Cluster, should be an important Change in Trend.



Sunday, April 28, 2019

SPX and US Dollar in compressed channels

SPX has been a narrow compressed sideways to Up channel for more than a month now.



Everyone is talking about the recent US Dollar Breakout, but it remains in a long term channel and right at channel resistance.

Wednesday, April 17, 2019

and the beat goes on..

and the beat goes on. Shorter term, we could sell channel resistance and buy channel support until the channel breaks.

Monday, April 15, 2019

Stuck in a narrow compressed Up channel the last 2 weeks

Stuck in a narrow compressed Up channel the last 2 weeks, once it breaks, it should be relatively sharp and fast.

Tuesday, April 2, 2019

The Master Cycle Update: 4/2-3 High

In my last post, I was looking for a 3/4 swing High

From 3/4 Raj T&C Daily Email: I found a possible Master Cycle (MC) that forecasted the:

1. 09/21/18H
2. 10/29/18L
3. 11/07/18H
4. 12/03/18H
5. 12/26/18 major Low.

It is now suggesting a 3/05 swing High, followed by a decline into 3/11L, up into 3/14-15H, 3/19L, 3/21H. I don’t expect this cycle to follow perfectly all the details, as it has been off at times by 1-2 TD, but it should generally be in there."

Actual: 
1. 3/05H => 3/4 short term swing High, 1 TD earlier
2. 3/11L => 3/8 Low, 1 TD earlier
3.3/14-15H =>  Miss
4. 3/19L => 3/20L, 1 TD earlier
5. 3/21H => 3/21 High.

From the above we see that although the MC is not perfect as it had 1 miss, the cycle is still "active" with future hits +/-2. The MC is a time Cycle that doesn't predict Price Magnitude.


From 3/21 & 3/27 Raj T&C Daily Email: "The MC suggests a 3/21H, decline into 3/27L, rally into 4/2 swing High"

Actual:
6. 3/27L => 3/25L, 2 TD earlier, 3/27 retest Low
7. 4/2H => We are currently rallying into 4/2H


There is a 16 TD, 66 TD and 25 TD fixed cycle supporting an 4/3-5 CIT as well.

Conclusion and what's Next: The Master Cycle has had some misses and is not perfect, but it remains in the markets with "active" hits +/-1-2 TD and is now suggesting an 4/2 swing High+/-2 at the 4/2 Geometric Time CIT, 4/4-5 Time Square CIT and 16, 25 and 66 TD Cycles due 4/3-5.



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Wednesday, March 6, 2019

Hourly Channel support breaking...

Hourly Channel support breaking...

Hourly channel support has held since 12/28/18 and is currently at 2777 SPX, a break below that is an initial sell signal.

Tuesday, March 5, 2019

The Master Cycle suggests a 3/4-05 major swing High

Review from 2/26/19 Report: "The 2/21 time Square CIT High could be the overdue 45 TD Hurst swing 2/25H, along with the 2/22 time Geo and 2/23 (2/22-25) Solar Time CITs."

"There is a CD to TD CIT is on 2/28, along with 25 TD cycle due 3/1, the 3/1 Bradley and 3/4 Emini Apex CIT is biased to be another High."



Review from 2/27/19 Update: "We are seeing a further decline this morning, confirming the 2/25H is in place, but after a 2/27L, we are still expecting another High due 3/1-4 lower or higher High."

Actual: We made a 2/25H, declined into 2/27L and made a 3/4H



What's Next: There is a proprietary Master Cycle (MC) that forecasted:

1. 9/21/18H
2. 10/29/18L
3. 11/7/18H
4. 12/3/18H
5. 12/26/18 major Low

The MC can be off by 1-2 TD, but it has been generally in there.  

The MC now suggests a 3/04-05 major swing Highfollowed by a sharp decline into XXX. 



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Wednesday, February 27, 2019

Thursday, February 14, 2019

Triangle Apex CIT 2/13 at Open High

Triangle Apex CIT with 5 waves up. The 2/13H @ Open was the 2/12-13 Apex time CIT (Change in Trend), 2/12 double Geometric time CIT and intraday 2/12 last hourly CIT and 2/12 Close-2/13 Open CIT. Time was Up.

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

The 94 Trading Day Cycle 2/12 swing High

Review: From 1/31/19 Update: "Markets have rallied above the mini wave 4 bullish pennant/triangle pattern in a 5th wave rally. The triangle targets 2739 SPX, right at the 200 DMA at 2741.47 SPX, which is major resistance. "

From 2/5/19 Update: "We are rallying into 2/5 Solar time CIT (Change in Trend) suggesting a 2/5H in the make, but as bullish momentum remains strong and all trends remain Up, we go with the flow and wait for a trend reversal lower before considering any shorts"

Actual: We reached our outstanding 2739 SPX Triangle Target, right at the 200 DMA at the 2/5 Solar CIT High, which remains the Highs to date.



We are currently rallying into the next 94 Trading Day (TD) Cycle, that last saw the 9/21/18 major High and is next due 2/11/19+/-3. The 94 TD Cycle has been consistently in the markets for more than 4 years now, since the 12/29/14H and has been often exact, but at times off 3-4 Trading Days.



The same triangle that projected 2739 SPX price target has an Apex CIT due today 2/12, right at the double 2/12 Geometric time CITs and the 94 TD Cycle suggesting a 2/12 swing High being made.


All trends remains up, since the projected 12/26/18 major Low and the markets have been in an hourly up channel. We would need to break this up channel to get an initial Sell signal.

What's Next: We should make a 2/12 swing High+/- and start a retrace.





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Monday, January 14, 2019

From 12/26 FC Low into 1/11/19 swing High

From our last public 12/24/18 post: "Markets are right on schedule (for the 75 week Flash Crash Low)"

From 12/26/18 Raj T&C Daily Email: "The infamous Flash Crash 75 week cycle pinpointed the 9/21/18 major High and has been declining into the 12/24-27 Flash Crash week Lows at the 12/27-1/02/19 quadruple time CITs and the 12/21-28 Cycle Cluster. The swing cycle is looking for a 12/24-27 Flash Crash Low and a rally into 1/11/19H"



Actual: The markets bottomed on 12/26 major FC Low at 2346.60 SPX and has rallied a whopping 251+ SP's into 1/10-11H.


From Friday 1/11 Update: "We have a last hourly time CIT that is biased to be the HOD (High of Day) and if seen, then Monday gaps lower and is baised lower"


Actual: We saw a last hour HOD Friday and Monday is gapping lower as expected.


What's next: From the 1/11 swing High, we start a volatile decline.




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