Wednesday, May 4, 2016

5/4 quick Update

Globex futures are lower, down -14 confirming lower Lows this morning 5/4L.

I was looking closely at the inverted turned straight cycle last night. 

It has a 5/4 Low, bounce for 1 day 5/5H and it does have another retest higher Low at 5/6-9L and as this is a Time cycle that 5/6-9L could be a possible lower Low. I do have a 5/9 double Geo CIT supporting a Low at that time.

In Summary, ideally we see plenty of volatility the next couple of days, lasting through 5/9L (at Open), before the actual rally phase starts, which is then followed by another decline to lower Lows.  As we are not seeing a crash wave Low right now, we should still see lower Lows in the coming weeks, but after a rally phase first. 

Tuesday, May 3, 2016

The Mini crash Low was supposed to be a 5/4 Crash Low!

http://www.safehaven.com/article/41320/the-mini-crash-low-was-supposed-to-be-a-54-crash-low

The Mini crash Low was supposed to be a 5/4 Crash Low, but it looks like it will be a "normal" Low, which is still a decent Low to trade.

From last night: "The decline has morphed into an ABC decline into 4/29L and we are seeing a possible D wave rally phase into 5/2H, followed by a final E wave into 5/4-5 T&C Custer Lows"



As we erased all of yesterday's gains today, it confirms that a D wave did complete at the 5/2H, which was the 5/2 Geo and 4/30 Solar weekend CIT and we are in a final E wave lower into 5/4 T&C Cluster Low.

The 5/4 Time and Cycle Cluster

Time Cluster 5/4:
5/4: Time Squares that predicted: 5/20/15H, 7/20/15H. 9/30/15H. 1/4/16H, next is 5/4.
5/4: Time Squares that predicted: 10/5/12H, 8/7/14L, 12/5/14H, 8/17/15H and next 5/4.
5/4: 2616/1800 TD: 3/6/09L+ 1803 TD =5/4



5/4: 180 degrees opposite the October Dark Days of New Moon-2 Crash days = 5/4

Theoretically, Carolan's "Dark days" of past Crash Lows all occurred 55 hours before the New Moon (= Divali, Mahalaksmi's New Moon, which in the Vedic Lunar Calendar are the Natural Laws governing Wealth) in Oct-Nov every year, This year that New Moon is on 10/30/16, so if we were to see a "crash", the dark days Low would occur on 10/28/16 Low.

180 Degrees or 6 Lunar Months (177 CD) before that is the 5/6 New Moon at 3.29 pm Eastern, 55 hours before NM = 5/4 at 8.29 am = Low at Open, but it could always be later or earlier.

Whatever Low we get on 5/4, we TMAR (Take the Money and Run).

Cycles Cluster 5/4:

  1. Inverted Cycle 4/22H, 4/27HH!, 5/4 Crash Low!
  2. Proprietary Cycle 1: 4/19H,  5/4 Low
  3. Proprietary Cycle 2: 4/21(H) and 5/4 Low
  4. Proprietary Cycle 3: 4/12L, 4/20HH, 5/4 Low
  5. 58 TD Cycle of Lows: 12/16/15L -57-3/11/16L -57.5X2- 8/24/15L -59- 11/16/15L -59- 2/11/16L -57- 5/4/16 Low
  6. 19 TD Cycle of Lows: 11/16/15L - 12/14/15L - 1/20/16L - 2/11/16L - 3/10/16L - 4/07/16L - 5/04/16L 

The 58 and 19 TD cycle of Lows along with all the other fixed Cycles suggests a 5/4 major swing Low, which remains the bias.



Thursday, April 28, 2016

A potential mini crash wave is on the Horizon

http://safehaven.com/article/41267/a-potential-mini-crash-wave-is-on-the-horizon

In my last public blog post a few days ago, I was looking for an 4/26 Geometric CIT Low, that was either the 4/25 Low or it could be inverting to an important 4/27 swing High instead.

To get the Timing right, I use my proprietary Timing Change in Trend (CIT = High or Low) dates that are either exact or  +/- 1 day, below are the most recent ones (as mentioned at http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/ in the past)


Time CITs:

  1. 4/13 Time Square CIT => 4/12L
  2. 4/20 Geometric and Solar CIT => 4/20H
  3. 4/26 Geometric CIT => 4/25L or 4/27H?


The 4/26 Geometric Time CIT was either the 4/25L@ 2077.52 SPX or 4/27H@ 2099.89 SPX. 
If we decline below that 4/25L, then the 4/27 High gets confirmed as the 4/26 Geometric CIT and if we rally above the 4/27H, then the 4/25L gets confirmed.


Cycle CITs:

I have been following an active Inverted cycle in my newsletter, ever since the 2/11/16 major Low.  An Inverted cycle means it is a historical cycle that is predicting exact future Highs and Lows, within 1-2 days, but inverted, meaning a past High is predicting a future Low and a past Low is predicting a future High.

This dominant inverted cycle (red vertical lines on chart) has seen 9 “hits” and 1 miss:

  1. 2/11L
  2. 2/24L
  3.  3/4H
  4. 3/11L(-1)
  5. 3/17H (miss)
  6. 3/28L(-1)
  7. 3/31H(+1)
  8. 4/12L
  9. 4/22H (-2)
  10. 4/26 Low or High?



At any point this inverted cycle can invert back to a “straight” cycle and that may be the case at the inverted cycle’s projected 4/26L may have inverted to an 4/27H. The next few days will make that clear.

Why is that important? Because if we did see an 4/27H, then that same cycle now suggests a mini Crash wave is on the Horizon and that historical Crash Low date was on one of Carolan’s infamous Dark Days.“The lunar dates 7-27 and 7- 28 are the “dark days, ” encompassing the various Black Tuesdays of N.Y. in 1929 and Hong Kong in 1997, and the Black and Blue Mondays in N.Y. in 1987 and 1997 respectively. In each case, lunar date 7-28 marked the end of the panic and the next two days, 7- 29 and 7-30”

What is interesting here, is the current date I have for the possible mini crash Low is directly linked to those dark days!  (Yellow projection line on chart does not give the exact date)  That date is also a Major Time and Cycle Cluster as it has 2 Time Squares CITs, the dark day CIT and several cycles all suggesting a Major CIT on that date. Caveat: If that date is not the mini crash Low, it will be the High to get short for a sharp 150+ SP decline afterwards. In any case, it should be an important turning point to watch in the markets. 

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Raj Time and Cycles Review and Forecast: 4/26 Low

http://safehaven.com/article/41240/raj-time-and-cycles-review-and-forecast-426-low

In my last public T&C Blog post, we were looking for The next major Time Square CIT (Change in Trend ) is due on April 13 +/-1 day.


Actual: The Time Square CIT (Change in Trend = High or Low) has several impressive past hits, including: 8/24/15L, 9/29/15L, 11/3/15H, 12/11/15L+1, 1/19/16L+1, all of them Major swing Lows and Highs (vertical red lines on chart) and the next one that was due on 4/13/16 was the April 12 2016 Low.

Forecast from the 4/10 Raj T&C Weekend report: The Cycle bias is we see a 4/11-12L at the 4/11 Geometric CIT and the 4/13 Time Square CIT. From there we rally into 4/20-22H and then decline into 4/26L


Actual: We made an 4/12 Low (Forecast #1 on chart), which was the 4/13 Time Square Low and rallied into 4/20 High (Forecast #2), right at the 4/20 Solar and Geometric Time CIT. From there we declined into 4/25 Low, 1 day from (Forecast #3) the 4/26 Geometric Time CIT.

What’s Next: We make an 4/26 Low+/-1 and start another rally phase. There is an important Time and Cycle Cluster on the Horizon that will cause some major movements in the markets. Be prepared.

Intraday Times and Cycles 4/26/16

Good Morning,

Globex futures have been higher all night.

Often (80%), though not always we see the High of Day right at the open or in the 1st hour of trading.

Daytraders: The intraday cycle sees a 1st hour 10.20 Low, midday Low and last hour Low.

We gapped higher to a 10.05 Mebob High and saw a 10.15 Low so far. 

Today appears to be the inverse of yesterday and suggests after some initial strength, we sell off into the close.,

Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 4/26/16: 10.15, 11.20-25, 12.40, 2.15 pm Eastern

Actual: 10.05H, 10.15L

Intraday Cycle is the Pink lines (9.40H), 10.20L, 11.15H, 12.30L, 2.00H, 3.40L

Actual: 10.05H, 10.15L+

Tuesday sees a possible 9.40 cycle High+/-, decline to a 10.20 cycle Low at the 10.15 time CIT, rally to a 11.15 cycle High at the 11.20-25 double Time CIT, decline to a 12.30 cycle Low at the 12.40 time CIT, rally to a 2.00 cycle High at the 2.15 time CIT, decline to a 3.40 cycle Low+/-30 min.

Thursday, April 21, 2016

Intraday Time and Cycles 4/21/16


Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 4/21/16: 9.35-45, 11.45, 12.55, 2.05 pm Eastern

Intraday Cycle is the Pink lines (9.40H), 10.20L, 11.15H, 12.30L, 2.00H, 3.10L

Thursday sees a possible 9.40 cycle High at the 9.35-45 time CIT, decline to a 10.20 Low+/-30, rally to a 11.15 cycle High at the 11.45 time CIT, decline to a 12.30 cycle Low at the 12.55 time CIT, rally to a 2.00 cycle High at the 2.05 time CIT, decline to a 3.10 cycle Low+/-30 min.



2.20 pm Update

Actual:


Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 4/21/16: 9.35-45, 11.45, 12.55, 2.05 pm Eastern

Actual: 9.35H, 11.55H, 12.45H, 2.05L

Intraday Cycle is the Pink lines (9.40H), 10.20L11.15H, 12.30L, 2.00H, 3.10L

Actual: 9.35H, 10.10L, 11.05H, 12.05L, 12.55H, 2.05L

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

The next major Time Square CIT is due on April 13


Forecast #1: From the 3/17 Raj T&C Daily Email: The cycle bias remains we are higher into 3/18-21H at the 3/21 Solar and daily Apex CIT High and decline into 3/28L at the 3/24 and 3/28-29 double Geo CIT”
Actual: We topped on 3/22 High (#1 on chart), 1 TD from the 3/21 Solar Time CIT (Change in Trend), then declined into 3/24 Low (#2 on chart) at the 3/24 Geometric time CIT and 1 TD from the 3/28-29 Geometric Time CIT.



Forecast #2: From the 3/17 Raj T&C Daily Email:  “From the 3/24-28 Low, we then rally into 3/31 CIT High”
Actual: We rallied into 4/1 High (#3 on chart), at the 4/1 Geometric time CIT and 1 day from the 3/31 Solar time CIT.

Forecast #3: From the 3/17 Raj T&C Daily Email: “The cycle bias is from the 3/31-4/1H, we see another decline into 4/8-11L
Actual: From the 4/1 High, we declined into 4/7 Low and we have retested that Low on 4/12L.

What’s Next: The next major Time Square CIT is due on April 13.



The Time Square CIT has several impressive hits, including: 8/24/15L, 9/29/15L, 11/3/15H, 12/11/15L+1, 1/19/16L+1, all of them Major swing Lows and swing Highs and it is next due on April 13 2016+/-1.

Thursday, April 7, 2016

Intraday Times to watch Thursday 4/7

Intraday Times to watch Thursday 4/7:  10.55 am Eastern  and  2.00-05 pm Eastern.

Monday, March 21, 2016

Intraday Time and Cycles 3/21/16

Good Morning,

SwingtradersWe rally into 3/18-21 High at the 3/21 Solar and Apex CIT, decline to a XXX Low and rally into XXX High

As all trends are Up, trading against the trend is like swimming upstream, so be alert.

Daytraders: The intraday cycle sees a 1st hour High, midday High and last hour High.

If the midday High is higher than the 1st hour High, it indicates strength and we will have an 80% chance we see a last hour highest High.

If the midday High is lower than the 1st hour High, it indicates weakness and suggests we see a last hour lowest High and lower Lows.

Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 3/21/16: 10.10, 11.05, 12.30 pm Eastern, all +/- 5-10 min

Actual:

Intraday Cycle is the Pink lines (9.40L), 10.30H, 11.15L, 12.20H, 2.00L, 3.40H, all +/- 30 min

Actual:

Monday sees a possible 9.40 cycle Low, rally to a 10.30 cycle High at the 10.10 time CIT, decline to a 11.15 cycle Low at the 11.05 time CIT, rally to a 12.20 cycle High at the 12.30 time CIT, decline to a 2.00 cycle Low+/-30, rally to a 3.40 cycle High+/-30.

Friday, March 18, 2016

The Inverted Cycle and the next Solar CIT has a March 18-21 High

http://safehaven.com/article/40815/raj-time-and-cycles-review-and-forecast-march-18-high-1-day

Review of the 2/12 blogpost on longer term CyclesThere is a confluence in several markets, (SPX, Bonds and Crude Oil) for a February 2016 turning point that should be important to watch.



 2/12 Forecast 1: “The 8 Month SPX cycle due is in February 2016 +/-1 Month, suggesting an important Low is due in February 2016… We should make an important 2/12 Low+/-1.


Actual: SPX bottomed at the 2/11/16 Low and have rallied a sharp 236 SP’s into today's Highs.




2/12 Forecast 2: “The Crude Oil has a monthly Apex CIT due in February 2016. As we have declined into it, it suggests a Crude Oil Low is due in February 2016”


Actual: Crude Oil bottomed at the 2/12/16 Low and have rallied a sharp $14.31 into today's Highs.


Forecast3“The Bond Interest Rates has a reliable 93 week cycle Low that is due this February 12 2016 week.”



Actual: Bond market Interest Rates bottomed at the 2/11/16 Low and have rallied a sharp 3.48 Interest Rate points so far.


Conclusion: All 3 markets bottomed at exactly the same date, 2/11/16 Low+/-1.



Shorter term SPX Forecasts


Actual: We saw a 3/4 High,1 day later and declined 39.88 SP's into 3/10 Low.

Forecast from the Friday 3/11 Daily Email: The inverted cycle predicted the 2/11L, 2/24L and 3/4H. It now suggests a 3/11L and a rally into 3/17H+/-1. There is a 891 CD Fixed cycle due 3/17 as well"

Forecast from the Saturday 3/12 weekend Email: “ The cycle bias is we are higher into Monday 3/21 Solar and daily Apex CIT (Change in Trend)"


Actual: From the 3/10 Low, so far, we rallied 77 SP's into 3/17 High.

What's Next: We make a 3/18 High+/-1 at the next Solar CIT (Change in Trend) and start another decline to the next swing Geometric CIT Low.

If we see a last hour High today 3/18 (68% chance), then Monday 3/21 sees a 1st hour High and bias higher.

If we see a last hour Low today 3/18 (32% Chance), then Monday 3/21 sees a 1st hour Low and bias lower.


Wednesday, March 2, 2016

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast: March 2 Major swing High


Forecast 1 &2: From my 2/12 Raj T&C Daily Email: From the 2/12 Low+/-1,  we rally into Option Expiration week”
Actual: We made a 2/11 major Low (#1 on chart) at 1810.11 SPX as expected, which was the 2/12 Geometric Time CIT (Change in Trend), the 176-77 Trading Day and 90 Calendar Day Cycle Low. From the 2/11 Low, we saw a  sharp 3 day 120.58 SP’s rally into Option Expiration week (#2 on chart).



Forecast 3 &4: From the 2/24 Raj T&C Update: “ The current cycle bias is: we see a 2/24 Low, then rally to a  3/2-3 major High”
Actual: We made a 2/24 Low (#3 on chart) and rallied into 3/1 High (#4 on chart) so far. Did we see a Super Tuesday March 1 High? It is possible, but we still have an important 3/2 at 1.50-2.55 hourly+/- 1 hour CIT today to watch for a potential High.

What’s next: We see a 3/2-3 major swing High at the 3/1 Geometric and 3/3 Solar Time CIT and 22 Trading Day Cycle and then start a relatively sharp decline into the next projected Time and Cycle cluster Low.

Friday, February 12, 2016

Raj T&C Review and Forecast and Confluence with other markets

Actual: we made a 2/8 Low, 1 day later.

From the 2/8 evening Raj T&C Daily EmailThe updated cycle bias is this week sees a choppy week, with a 2/8L, 2/10H and 2/12-16 Low at the 2/12 Geo and 2/14 Solar weekend CIT and at the next 176-77 TD Cycle due 2/12. 
Actual: We saw a choppy week, with a 2/8 Low, 2/10 High and so far we saw 2/11 lower lows, 1 day earlier.



The next Time and Cycle Cluster is on 2/12-14

Times to Watch:
  1. Friday 2/12 Geo CIT & Sunday 2/14 Solar CIT

Cycles to watch:
1. The 176.5 Trading Day (TD) Cycle: 10/21/09H-173-7/1/10L-178-3/16/11L-177-11/25/11L-172-8/2/12L-177-4/18/13L-178-12/31/13H-181-9/19/14H—176- 6/03/15H—176-Friday 2/12/16.
2. The 90 CD Cycle: 5/20/15H-8/18/15H-11/16/15L- Sunday 2/14/16

What’s Next: We make an important 2/12 Low+/-1.


February 2016 SPX Confluence with  Crude Oil and Interest Rates


The 8 Month SPX cycle due is in February 2016 +/-1 Month, suggesting an important Low is due in February 2016 +/-1 month.



The Crude Oil has a monthly Apex CIT due in February 2016. As we have declined into it, it suggests a Crude Oil Low is due in February 2016 +/- 1 month.


The Bond Interest Rates has a reliable 93 week cycle Low that is due this February 2016 week.


Conclusion: There is a confluence in several markets for a February 2016 turning point that should be important to watch.

Wednesday, February 10, 2016

Intraday Time and Cycles for Feb 10, 2016


Intraday 5 min SPX CITs 2/10: 10.30, 12.55, 2.35 pm Eastern, all +/-5-10 minutes
Intraday Cycle 2/10: (9.40L), 10.30H, 11.15L, 12.20H, 2.00L, 3.40H Eastern, all +/- 30 minutes. 

Bias is we see a Bullish Up day today and if by Noon we are higher than the 1st hour High, we have an 80% chance we see a last hour highest High. Tomorrow is biased lower.


11.00 am Eastern Update:


Good Morning,

All eyes are on Janet yellin's semiannual   HUMPHREY HAWKINS  testimony today and tomorrow since 10.00 am.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar


Daytraders: The intraday cycle sees a 1st hour 10.30 High, midday High and last hour High.

We gapped higher to a 10.35H, above the up channel and 1873 SPX resistance and have since retraced to 1863 SPX.

If we see a higher Midday High, above 1881.60 SPX, it indicates strength and we will have a (normal) 80% chance we see a last hour Highest High.

If we see a lower Midday High, below 1881.60 SPX, it indicates weakness and suggests we see a last hour lowest High and lower Low.


Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 2/10/16: 10.30, 12.55, 2.35 pm Eastern

Actual: 9.45L, 10.35H

Intraday Cycle is the Pink lines (9.40L), 10.30H, 11.15L, 12.20H, 2.00L, 3.40H

Actual: 9.45L, 10.35H, 11.10L

Tuesday sees a possible 9.40 cycle Low+/-, rally to a 10.30 cycle high at the 10.30 time CIT, decline to a 11.15 cycle Low+/-30, rally to a 12.20 cycle High at the 12.55 time CIT, decline to a 2.00 cycle Low at the 2.35 time CIT, rally to a 3.40 High+/-30.

Intraday Mebob Buy above 1866.50 /ES (Mar Emini SP)

Intraday Mebob Sell below 1861.50 /ES (Mar Emini SP)




2.30 pm Update: Update 2
Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 2/10/16: 10.30, 12.55, 2.35 pm Eastern

Actual: 10.35H, 1.05H

Intraday Cycle is the Pink lines (9.40L), 10.30H, 11.15L, 12.20H, 2.00L, 3.40H

Actual: 9.45L, 10.35H, 11.40L, 1.05H, 1.55L

The markets have been choppy since the 1st hour High, and still in an Up wave and we should still see a last hour High.

Markets are staying within the 5 minute sideways to up channel, with resistance at 1873 SPX and 1887 SPX

Tomorrow is an Inversion day, with a 79% chance we see a 1st hour Low and a 21% chance we invert to a 1st hour High.

Yellin also speaking tomorrow should have an influence.

Friday, February 5, 2016

Raj Time and Cycle Review & Forecast

http://safehaven.com/article/40374/raj-time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast

Review: In my January 22 blog post, I said: If History is any guidance, we should see a major crash Low between 1/20 and 1/26. There are some indications that 1/20/16 was that major Flash Crash Cycle Low, but we need to close solidly above the steep down channel to confirm that.
Actual: We closed above that steep down channel on 1/22, which confirmed 1/20/16 as the major mini crash Low.

From the 1/20/16 Raj T&C Email: The current cycle bias is from a 1/19L, we rally to a 1/22H and then decline into 1/27 lower Lows.
Actual: We made a 1/20L, 1 day later, rallied to a 1/22H (#1 on chart) and decline into a 1/27L (#2 on chart)

From the 1/25 Raj T&C weekend Email: The cycle bias is we made a 1/22H at the 1/22-23 CD to TD, Square, Over flight CIT, then decline into 1/27 Solar and T&C Cluster Lows, which should be a higher Low. From there we rally into a 2/2 High and then decline into 2/5 Low.
Actual: From the 1/27 Low, we rallied into 2/1 High (#3), 1 day earlier, and we saw a decline into 2/5 Low (#4) as expected.

What’s Next: We make a 2/5 Low+/-1 and see another rally phase.