Friday, January 30, 2015

A Mini Crash wave is on the Horizon

Review: In my 1/12 public post, I was looking for a Jan 14 swing Low.

Forecast #1 from the Raj T&C 1/16 Weekend Report: “Jan 16 is a double bottom with the Jan 14 Low at 1988 SPX and we should see a rally into Monday Jan 26.”

Actual: We made a Jan 14-16 double bottom as expected and rallied a sharp 76 SP’s to a Jan 22-23 High, 1-2 Trading Days from the projected Jan 26 High.

Forecast #2 from the 1/23 Raj T&C Email: “We should decline into 1/28 Low at the 1/27 Solar & 1/28 Apex CIT”
Actual: We declined into 1/29 Low, 1 Trading later

Forecast #3 from the 1/28 evening Raj T&C Email: “Short term, tomorrow, 1/29, after perhaps an early lower low, we will see a retrace rally and see a 1/29 High. The Fed decision was bearish today and suggests lower lows. Today confirms that cycles are lower into 1/30-2/2 Lows at the 2/2 Geometric CIT”

Actual: We made a 1/29 lower Low and saw a 35 SP intraday reversal rally into 1/29 High. We have declined sharply this Friday morning Jan 30.

What’s Next: We should see a Feb 2 swing Low. If we decline below 1988 SPX, we will see a fast drop to test the Dec 16 Low at 1972.85 SPX and this decline below 1988 SPX opens the Trapdoor to Hell for a Mini crash wave in February on the basis of a Crash pattern that is being followed very precisely. First, however, after the 2/2 Low, we should see yet another rally to another swing lower High. It is good to be on the right side of this move at the right time, be prepared.

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Crude near a short term Low

In the Jan 5 Time and Cycles public blog post, I mentioned that: "Major support is at the long term 12/98L-11/01L-12/08L Up trendline at the 46-47 area"

That trend line needed a little refinement. Crude exact key long term trend line support at 45.89 and was exactly touched at 1/14 futures Low at 45.89 and closed back above it at 48.48. We are at a short term Low in crude Oil. 

Monday, January 12, 2015

Update on the previous forecast # 4

Good Morning,
Welcome to Option Expiration Crook's week, where the various Times and Cycles tends to get skewed, making anything possible. That said, there are still decent odds of the following:

The 1/9 Solar CIT was the 1/9 High. We are looking for a mini wave C decline into 1/13L at the 1/14 (not 1/13 as previously mentioned) geometric CIT. We already achieved the minimum 50-6% retrace that was mentioned to subscribers, but we could see more by tomorrow.

Daytraders: The intraday cycle is a Low am to High pm day (or Inverse)

We saw a 9.30 High and a sharp decline to a 10.05 1st hour Low. If it is a Low am to High pm day, we should now see  a midday High.

Tomorrow sees a 1st hour Low and bias lower.

Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 1/12/15: 10.05, 11.15, 11.55  pm CIT Eastern.

Actual: 10.05L

Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40H), 10.30L, 12.45H, 1.40L, 3.30H

Actual: 9.35H, 10.05L

 Monday sees a Low am to High pm day (or Inverse), with a possible 9.40 High+/-, decline to a 10.30 Low at either the 10.05 or 11.15 CIT, rally to a 12.45 High at the 11.55 CIT, decline to a 1.40 Low+/-30, rally to a 3.30 High+/-30.

Intraday Mebob Buy above 2020.75 /ES (Mar Emini SP)

Intraday Mebob Sell below 2018.00 /ES (Mar Emini SP)

From last night's 1/12 Report: "It is possible today (1/12) was the Low of the week and 1/14 becomes a retest Low, especially if tomorrow (1/13) rallies."

1/14 Morning Update: We are still looking for the C wave Low to complete today at the Jan 14 geometric time CIT (Change in Trend) 

Friday, January 9, 2015

4 Time and Cycles Forecasts, Review VS Actual

Forecast (1) from my 12/16/14 public blog forecast: “We are looking for a 12/16-17 short term Low at the triple 12/16-17 geometric and Solar CIT and a sharp, but brief rally, before we decline again.”
Actual: We made a 12/16 major Low and saw a sharp 120+  SP rally to All time Highs. The rally was even sharper and longer than expected.

Forecast (2) from the 12/31 T&C Intraday Update:Today is a confirmed High am to Low pm day and confirms the 12/26-29 Highs are in.”
Forecast (3) From 1/4 T&C weekend Report: Once the wave 1 or A Low is in, at 1/5-7L at the 55 TD Cycle CIT on 1/5 and a CD to TD CIT on 1/7,  we will see a wave 2 or B rally High into 1/9 Solar CIT High, before we decline in a wave 3 or C into 1/12-13 Lows at the 1/13 geometric CIT.'

Actual: The 12/26-29 double High was the 12/24 Solar CIT, 1 TD later and got confirmed with the 12/31 decline. We declined into 1/6L at the 55 TD and CD to TD CIT Low, as expected and rallied to 1/9 Solar CIT High at the 1st hourly Apex CIT High.

What’s next: Forecast (4): We should now see a fast wave 3 or C decline into 1/12-13 Low at the 1/13 geometric CIT

Monday, January 5, 2015

Time and Cycles Crude Oil Review and Forecast

Crude Oil has been in Free fall the last couple of months. It became bearish when it finally broke below its 2 year Triangle back in September-October 2014.

10/06/14  Crude Oil Forecast:The Monthly Crude Oil closed lower last week at 89.74, below long term Triangle Trendline support at 92, which is bearish. The Triangle has formed since the 5/2/11 Highs, just over 2 years now.”

11/17/14 Crude Oil Forecast:The Monthly Crude Oil again closed lower last week at 75.82, which remains bearish. Triangle target is 51.67.”

Actual: Since we broke the 2 year Triangle back in September 2014, we saw a sharp multi-month decline finally reaching our 51.67 Triangle Target (from 11/17) on Monday Jan 5 2015.

What’s next: Support is at 49.86, the 78.6% retrace, but Major support is at the long term 12/98L-11/01L-12/08L Up trendline at the 46-47 area. There is a 50 Month Cycle due June 2015, bias is this will be a Low and the Apex of the 2 year Triangle due in Feb 2016, which should be a major CIT.

In the Stockmarket, the 12/26-29 double Highs were confirmed in with 12/31 decline and projected lower on Fri-Mon 1/02-05, we will review the stock market outlook in the next Update.

Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Today's 12/17 Intraday forecast vs Actual

Today's 12/17 Intraday forecast:


The Biblical 7 year Cycle and the 360 TD Cycle

"Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt:"
"And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt; and the famine shall consume the land;"
(Genesis 41:29 & 30 KJV)

I first mentioned the 360 TD (trading Days) Cycle on my public blog more than 3 years ago in October 2011. In my last public post, I had a 360 TD Analog looking for a major High, where 7/16/07H=9/19/14H, 8/16/07L=10/15/14L and the 10/11/07 major High, became the 12/5/14 major High, which is the biblical 7 year Cycle.

The day by day analog was not exact as fixed cycles always have a variance and this one was off by 1-2 weeks, but what is interesting here is the following: 10/11/07H + 1800 TD = 12/5/14H. What is so special about that? 1800 TD = 5 X 360 TD is the 7 year cycle.

This 1800 TD/7 year cycle+/- has pinpointed major Highs and Lows in the past:
  1. 10/11/07H – 12/05/14H =1800 TD
  2. 08/13/04L – 10/04/11L = 1798 TD
  3. 03/12/03L – 04/26/10H = 1793 TD
  4. 03/12/03L – 05/06/10L = 1801 TD (Flash Crash)
  5. 09/21/01L11/21/08L = 1805 TD
  6. 09/01/00H – 10/11/07H = 1785 TD
  7. 08/11/08H - 09/28/15H = 1792 TD
  8. 11/21/08L01/26/16L = 1800 TD
The future 9/28/15 Blood Moon total Lunar Eclipse is another biblical 7 years/1800 TD from the 8/11/08 swing High, before the panic into 11/21/08 crash Low, which was 1805 TD from the 9/21/01 Crash Low and 1800 TD in the future is January 2016.

There are other examples of course, but these are some from the above chart. The 1800 TD/7 year cycle suggests 12/5/14 was a major High and we are due for a sharp correction, which is due to bottom in 2016.  However, there are other Cycles, like the 3 and 4 year cycles that bottomed on 10/15/14 major Low that suggest we will see an initial bullish up trust early next year. The various cycles will cause some large swings in 2015, so be prepared.

The Short term outlook: We are looking for a 12/16-17 short term Low at the triple 12/16-17 geometric and Solar CIT and a sharp, but brief rally, before we decline again.

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Thanksgiving and Gratitude

A recent study set out to determine the affects of gratitude. After making initial observations and compiling all the previous research on gratitude, they conducted the Research Project on Gratitude and Thanksgiving. The study required several hundred people in three different groups to keep daily diaries. The first group kept a diary of the events that occurred during the day, while the second group recorded their unpleasant experiences. The last group made a daily list of things for which they were grateful.

The results of the study indicated that daily gratitude exercises resulted in higher reported levels of alertness, enthusiasm, determination, optimism and energy. Additionally, the gratitude group experienced less depression and stress. They were more likely to help others, exercised more frequently and made more progress toward personal goals. According to the findings, people who feel grateful are also more likely to feel loved. Researchers noted that gratitude encouraged a positive cycle of reciprocal kindness among people because one act of gratitude encourages another.
These results also seem to show that gratitude works independently of faith. Although gratitude is a substantial part of most religions, it appears the benefits extend to the general population, regardless of faith or lack thereof.
This suggests that anyone can increase their sense of well-being and create positive social effects just from counting their blessings. What are you thankful for?

Here are sixty things to be grateful for in our lives:

1. Your parents - for giving birth to you. Because if there is no them, there will not be you.
2. Your family – for being your closest kin in the world.
3. Your friends – for being your companions in life.
4. Sense of sight – for letting you see the colors of life.
5. Sense of hearing - for letting you hear trickle of rain, the voices of your loved ones, and the harmonious chords of music.
6. Sense of touch - for letting you feel the texture of your clothes, the breeze of the wind, the hands of your loved ones.
7. Sense of smell – for letting you smell scented candles, perfumes, and beautiful flowers in your garden.
8. Sense of taste – for letting you savor the sweetness of fruits, the saltiness of seawater, the sourness of pickles, the bitterness of bitter gourd, and the spiciness of chili.
9. Your speech – for giving you the outlet to express yourself.
10. Your heart – for pumping blood to all the parts of your body every second since you were born; for giving you the ability to feel.
11. Your lungs – for letting you breathe so you can live.
12. Your immune system – for fighting viruses that enter your body. For keeping you in the pink of your health so you can do the things you love.
13. Your hands – so you can type on your computer, flip the pages of books, and hold the hands of your loved ones.
14. Your legs - for letting you walk, run, swim, play the sports you love, and curl up in the comfort of your seat.
15. Your mind - for the ability to think, to store memories, and to create new solutions.
16. Your good health – for enabling you to do what you want to do and for what you’re about to do in the future.
17. Your school - for providing a environment conducive to learning and growing.
18. Your teachers – for their dedication and for passing down knowledge to you.
19. Tears – for helping you express your deepest emotions.
20. Disappointment - so you know the things that matter to you most.
21. Fears – so you know your opportunities for growth.
22. Pain – for you to become a stronger person.
23. Sadness – for you to appreciate the spectrum of human emotions.
24. Happiness – for you to soak in the beauty of life.
25. The Sun - for bringing in light and beauty to this world.
26. Sunset – for a beautiful sight to end the day.
27. Moon and Stars - for brightening up our night sky.
28. Sunrise - for a beautiful sight to start the morning.
29. Rain – for cooling you when it gets too warm and for making it comfy to sleep in on weekends.
30. Snow – for making winter even more beautiful.
31. Rainbows – for a beautiful sight to look forward to after rain.
32. Oxygen - for making life possible.
33. The earth – for creating the environment for life to begin.
34. Mother nature - for covering our world in beauty.
35. Animals – for adding to the diversity of life.
36. Internet - for connecting you and others despite the physical space between you.
37. Transport - for making it easier to commute from one place to another.
38. Mobile phones – for making it easy to stay in touch with others.
39. Computers – for making our lives more effective and efficient.
40. Technology – for making impossible things possible.
41. Movies – for providing a source of entertainment.
42. Books – for adding wisdom into your life.
43. Blogs – for connecting you with other like-minded people.
44. Shoes – for protecting your feet when you are out.
45. Time – for a system to organize yourself and keep track of activities.
46. Your job – for giving you a source of living and for being a medium where you can add value to the world.
47. Music - for lifting your spirits when you’re down and for filling your life with more love.
48. Your bed - for you to sleep comfortably in every night.
49. Your home - for a place you can call home.
50. Your soul mate – for being the one who understands everything you’re going through.
51. Your best friends – for being there for you whenever you need them.
52. Your enemies – for helping you uncover your blind spots so you can become a better person.
53. Kind strangers – for brightening up your days when you least expect it.
54. Your mistakes - for helping you to improve and become better.
55. Heartbreaks - for helping you mature and become a better person.
56. Laughter - for serenading your life with joy.
57. Love - for letting you feel what it means to truly be alive.
58. Life’s challenges - for helping you grow and become who you are.
59. Life - for giving you the chance to experience all that you’re experiencing, and will be experiencing in time to come.
And last but not least… #60:
You.  For being who you are and touching the world with your presence.

Happy Thanksgiving to all!

Friday, November 7, 2014

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast November 7 2014

Forecast from my last public post on 10/24: “There is one 360 cycle that was similar to the current market 7/16/07H=9/19/14H and 8/16/07L=10/15L. If we continue to follow this cycle, we will see a sharp rally to all time Highs (#3 on chart).”

Actual: The markets unfolded as the above 360 Cycle predicted. From the 10/15L, which found 8/16/07L green parallel channel support, we rallied a whopping 210+ SP’s to fresh All time Highs into 11/7 right at the 10/11/07H green parallel channel resistance.

Forecast 10/24 Raj T&C Report: We should rally into 10/24H, decline 1-2 day into 10/27-28L, before we rally into 10/29-31 major Time and Cycle (T&C) Cluster High.”

Actual: We made an 10/24 High, saw a 1 day pullback into Monday 10/27 Low (Forecast #1 on chart) and rallied 73.09 SP’s to Monday 11/3 High (Forecast #2), 1 TD later.

Forecast 10/31 Raj T&C Weekend Report: “We have been straight up (SU) since the 10/15 Lows into the 10/29-11/3 T&C Cluster, suggesting a 10/31-11/3H, but in rare occasions, such as these Straight Up markets these CIT clusters are ignored. The bias now is we see a brief pullback into Monday 11/3L and then chop around next week and make another 11/7-10 major higher All time High.”

Actual: We made a 11/3H, 1 TD later, saw a brief pullback into 11/4L, 1 TD later,  (Forecast #3), and rallied another 30+ SP’s to fresh All time Highs into 11/7H so far. (Forecast #4).

We have a 11/7 Solar Time CIT (Change in Trend) and a 11/7 and 11/11 geometric CIT supporting this. There is a fixed 1336-37 CD Cycle due on 11/11+/- as well. Furthermore, there are 2 important mathematical Time Squares due on 11/7 and the other is on 11/11.

The mathematical Time Square CIT (Change in Trend) due on 11/11+/-
3/06/09L + 668 TD (25.85^2) = 10/27/11H (668 Trading Days =  25.85 Squared).
For the next CIT, you add +2 to 25.85 = 27.85 and you re-square it to get the following:
3/06/09L + 775 TD (27.84^2) = 04/02/12H
3/06/09L + 890 TD (29.83^2) = 09/14/12H
3/06/09L +1013 TD (31.83^2)= 03/18/13L
3/06/09L +1144 TD (33.83^2)= 09/19/13H
3/06/09L +1284 TD (35.83^2)= 4/14/14 Low
3/06/09L +1431TD (37.83^2)= 11/11/14 High+/-

Conclusion and What’s next: We make a 11/7-10 major High and start a decline.

Update 11/21: 11/13 was a minor Low. I was expecting a brief decline, before the rally resumed higher. We have been in a "Stuck Up" since 10/15 major Low. As long as this is the case, we should be buying on pullbacks. 

Monday, October 27, 2014

Monday 10/27 Intraday Times and Cycles

 On Friday evening, I posted on my public blog:
"10/24 Evening Update: Monday and perhaps Tuesday 10/27-28 should be down days, before we head higher once again"

From this past weekend report:

"Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 10/27/14: 9.35, 11.05, 11.35, 1.25 pm CIT Eastern.
Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: 79/21% (9.40H), 10.20L, 11.40H, 68/32% 1.00L/H, 2.00H/L, 3.40L/H. Monday sees an Inversion with a possible 9.40 High +/- and a 79% chance we see a 10.20 Low at the 11.05 CIT, rally to a 11.40 High at the 11.35 CIT, then there is a 68% chance we see a last hour Low and a 32% chance we see a last hour High."

Forecast: "Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 10/27/14: 9.35, 11.05, 11.35, 1.25 pm CIT Eastern."

Actual: 9.35 High, 11.11 High, 11.35 High, 1.25 High.

Forecast "Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: 79/21% (9.40H), 10.20L, 11.40H, 68/32% 1.00L/H, 2.00H/L, 3.40L/H."

Actual: 10.05L, 11.15H, 11.35H

We saw a 10.05 1st hour Low and a midday High as expected.

We now have a good 68% chance we see a last hour Low and a 32% chance we invert to a last hour High. 

If we see a last hour Low, then tomorrow sees a High am to Low pm day. 

If we see a last hour High, then tomorrow sees a Low am to High pm day.

Friday, October 24, 2014

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast October 24 2014

In my last public post, I was looking for a 9/26 CIT (Change in Trend) Low. This CIT became the 9/25 swing High instead.

From 9/26 T&C report: “We will see another rally into 10/3-6 Major Time cluster CIT. The 10/3 CIT has 7 hits: 1. 10/3 Solar. 2. 10/4 Cycle CIT. 3. 4 Geometric CITs and 4. 10/4 is the “end of the 9 days of Mother Divine CIT”.

From 9/30 T&C report: “There is a potential “Mother Divine Crash Cycle that sees a 10/20 crash Low, but we will address that potential-or not by the 10/3-6 cluster CIT High”

From 10/3 T&C report: “If we see an 10/3-6 High, we will see another sharp decline into 10/10 Solar CIT”

Actual: We made an 10/6 major secondary High, right at the 10/3-6 major Time Cluster CIT and declined sharply into 10/15 Low, which  saw a volatile recovery after that. The markets declined beyond my 10/10 Low date and bottomed before the 10/20 Low date, which was a miss in my work.

The 10/15L hit major long term 10/4/11L-11/16/12L channel support at 1820.66 SPX.

From 10/15 T&C report: Remember the 360 TD/75 week Cycle? There is one 360 cycle that was similar 7/16/07H=9/19/14H and 8/16/07L=10/18L” 

Actual: This cycle bottomed out on 10/15 Low, right at parallel channel support and saw a similar Time and Price decline as the 7/16/07 High to the 8/16/07 Low and if we continue to follow this cycle, we will see a sharp rally to all time Highs (3).

What’s next: The major Low is in and we should rally into the next major Time and Cycle cluster CIT and make another swing High.

10/24 Evening Update: Monday and perhaps Tuesday 10/27-28 should be down days, before we head higher once again.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Gold at major Long term support

I have Gold at major Long term trend line support since April 2001 Lows.

We are in the dark days window of the stock market, be careful out there.

Friday, September 26, 2014

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast Sep 26, 2014

In my last public post, I was looking for an 9/11-12 Low.


Forecast from the 9/12 Daily Email: “We are looking for a 9/11-12 Low. From there we rally into 9/19 High. Afterwards we see a relative sharp decline into 9/26 Time Square, Cycle and Solar CIT Low.”



Actual: We made a Monday 9/15 Low (1 on chart), 1 TD later and saw a 40.78 SP rally into 9/19 All time Highs (2 on chart). We then saw a 53.27 SP sharp decline into 9/25 Lows (3 on chart). 


Time Square of 9 Lows from 10/11/07 (Red lines on chart)
10/11/07 - 11/16/12L = 1285 TD = 35.85^2 and 131.16 SP decline in 63 CD
37.85^2 = 1433 TD = 06/24/13L and 126.85 SP decline in 33 CD
38.85     = 1509 TD = 10/10/13L-1 and 82.97 SP decline in 20 CD
39.85    = 1588 TD = 02/04/14L+1 and 112.92 SP decline in 21 CD
40.85    = 1669 TD = 06/02/14L miss
41.85    = 1751 TD = 09/26/14 Low

There are many who believe timing important Market Highs and Lows (Change in Trends = CIT) is futile and impossible, but as we have shown in the past weeks and months, pinpointing exact Highs and Lows is not only possible, it has been and can be done on a consistent basis. The proprietary Solar, Geometric and Time Square Time CIT's are precise mathematical tools.


What’s next: We are looking for a 9/26 swing Low+/-1 Day at the important Time Square CIT above and another rally into the next major swing High.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast Sep 11, 2014


In my last public post, I was looking for an 8/22-25 High.


Forecast from the 8/22 Daily Email: From the 8/22-25 High, we see a decline into 8/29 swing Low and then another rally into 9/5 swing High.


Actual: We made an 8/26 High (1 on chart) and saw a brief 14.52 SP decline into 8/28 Low (2 on chart). We then saw a 20.65 SP rally into 9/4 All time High (3 on chart).


Forecast from the 8/28 Daily Email: From the 9/5 swing High, we decline into a  9/11 swing Low.


Actual: From the 9/4 swing High, we declined 28.18 SP’s into 9/10 Low (4 on chart) so far.


What’s next: We are looking for a 9/11 Low+/-1 Day and another rally into the next swing High. This should be followed by a very sharp decline into the next major swing Low.