Friday, March 28, 2014

Raj T&C March 2014 Review & Forecast

In my last public post, I was looking for a 3/3-4 major Low.

Since that 3/3 Low of the Month, we saw a sideways and choppy March Month. In early March 4, the important Times to watch for the month of March and the March 2014 Cycles forecast Roadmap was emailed. During the march month some times were revised 1-2 TD earlier (like the 3/17L, was adjusted to the 3/14L), but overall the forecast remained the same.

Important Times to watch for March 2014 (vertical Cyan Lines on chart, click to enlarge):

1. 3/3-4 has a 3/3 Solar CIT, 3/04 geometric CIT and 3/04 SP Cycle CIT.

2. 3/11 has a double geometric CIT and 3/12 is the next Solar CIT.

3. 3/17-18 double geometric CIT

4. 3/21 Solar CIT on Option Expiration (OE) day.

5. 3/28 geometric CIT, 3/31 Solar CIT and 7/18/06L + 53^2 = 03/27.

March 2014 Speculative Roadmap:

Forecast #1: (Red lines on chart) "We decline into the 3/3-4 Solar & geometric CIT Low"
Actual: We made a 3/3 Low of the Month at 1834.44 SPX.

Forecast #2: "From 3/3-4 Low, we rally into 3/11-12 Geometric and Solar CIT High"
Actual: We made a 3/11 High, that was a double Top with the 3/7 High.

Forecast #3: "From the 3/11-12 High, we then decline into 3/17-18 geometric CIT Low"
Actual: We declined into a 3/14-17 Low.

Forecast #4:  "We then rally into a 3/21 Solar CIT and Option Expiration (OE) High"
Actual: We rallied into a 3/21 OE High.

Forecast #5: "We then see a decline into 3/28-3/31 geometric & Solar CIT Low"
Actual: We declined so far into 3/27 Lows at 1842.11 SPX, close to my 1840 SPX target.

As can be seen in the examples above, the Solar and geometric Time CIT's are often exact, or at most +/- 1 day.

What's Next: We make a 3/28-31 CIT major Low, targeting 1830-40 SPX. There is another Low due at the 4/2-4 geometric CIT.The April important Times to watch and April Cycle Highs and Lows has been forecasted. We have been in a sideways trading range the last month, which ever way it breaks determines the next major direction in the markets.

3/31 Update: The expected 3/28-31 Low was the 3/27 Low, 1 TD earlier.
3/27 Low is also as the dominant 24 Squared week cycle Low (3/12/03L= 3/26/14L+1) and the 7/18/06L +52 Squared TD = 3/27/14 CIT Low. We are now bullishly biased.

Monday, March 3, 2014

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast: March 3-4 Low

In my last public post, I was looking for a strong rally from the 2/5/14L Squared CIT Low.

Forecast #1 (Cyan lines on chart) from my 2/4 Email Update: "We should decline into 2/5 Lows, then rally into 2/18 Highs"

Actual: We made a 2/5 Low and rallied a strong 110+ SP's into 2/19 Highs as expected.

Forecast #2 from my 2/18 Email Update: "The bias is then 2/18 geometric CIT High, down into 2/20 double geometric CIT Low, then up again into 2/24-25 Solar and double geometric CIT High."

Actual: We made a 2/19H, declined into 2/20L and rallied into a 2/24H as expected. We then went sideways to lower for 2-3 days into 2/27L.

Forecast #3 from my 2/28 Update: "The 24 squared week cycle has a long track record and suggests a 2/28H and sharp decline into 3/04L"

Actual: We made a marginally higher 2/28 All time High and are now seeing a sharp decline on Monday 3/3.

What's next: We should decline into the 3/3-4 major Time & Cycle cluster Low.
The 3/3-4 Time and Cycle Cluster has a 3/3 Solar CIT, 3/04 geometric CIT and the 3/04 Symmetry Cycle CIT. Also Mars goes Retrograde and Sun trine Jupiter on 3/1 and Saturn Retrogrades on 3/2. The 322-25 TD cycle: 4/26/10H-08/09/11L-11/16/12L-03/04/14L. The 43-46 TD Cycle: 4/18/13L-6/24L-8/28L-10/30H-12/31H-03/05/14.  More importantly, the 24 squared week cycle has a 2/28H and 3/04L.