Friday, March 30, 2012

Major Time & Cycle (T&C) Cluster CIT: 4/2-5

Major Time & Cycle (T&C) Cluster Change in Trend (CIT) due on:  4/2-5
1.    3/31 Solar (weekend) CIT
2.    4/1-4/2** Master Time Code
3.    4/3/12: geometric CIT
4.    4/3/12: Su30Ju 4/3
5.    4/3/12 is the next 10 and 20 TD Hurst Cycle Lows
6.    4/3/12: 1000 CD Cycle: 07/08/09L-1000 CD - 04/03/12
7.    4/3/12: Peter’s (PDW)1323 Cycle (posted at 
10/7/97H-1323/189w-5/22/01H-1322/189w-1/3/05H-1316/188w-8/11/08H-1323 - 4/3/12H
8.    4/3/12 – 4/4/12: 45 TD from 1/30/12 low, 90 TD from 11/25/11 low,
9.    4/4/12 Mercury Direct
10.    4/4/12 is 180 degrees form 10/4/11 Low
11.    4/5/12: 03/22/01L + 24 squared weeks = 04/05/12
12.    4/5/12: Bond1 & Ian's 89 TD: 7/1/10L, 11/5/10H, 3/16/11L, 7/22/11H, 11/28/11L, 4/5/12

The 89 TD alternating Cycle: 7/1/10 Low, 11/5/10 High, 3/16/11 Low, 7/22/11 High, 11/28/11 Low, 4/5/12 High?
The 89 TD Cycle has a noticeable alternating High and Low and the next 89 TD cycle is due on 4/5 and the alternation suggests it will be High,

Peter's 1323 Cycle of Highs: 10/7/97H-1323/189w-5/22/01H-1322/189w-1/3/05H-1316/188w-8/11/08H-1323 - 4/3/12H? The 1323 cycle suggests a 4/3/12 High.

The 20 TD Hurst Cycle has a Low around that time: 10/4L- 20 TD- 11/1L -17- 11/25L-16- 12/19L -17-1/13L- 16- 2/07/12L-19- 3/6/12L-19- 4/2/12 Low.

The time cluster is quite large and covers the entire week, which is not of practical use for trading purposes imho, so how can we pinpoint the exact date for the High or Low to occur?

I use Time & Cycle CIT Order of importance: 
1. Solar CITs (84-90% accuracy), then 
2. Geometric CIT (70-80% accuracy)
3. then other CITs, like squares, Astros, etc. 

The 3/31 (Saturday) Solar CIT is the most important turning point, which should be either Friday 3/30, but more likely Monday 4/2 CIT. The intraday cycles suggests Friday and Monday are down biased and would suggests an 4/2 Low and rally the rest of the week.

It is bullish if we decline into these important Time clusters and make an important Low, reverse and rally to continue to higher highs and Vice Versa.

Today, Friday 3/30 I had a 1st hourly CIT, most likely a High.

Intraday 5 min Mar SP CIT Times 3/30/12: 1st hour, 11.25, 12.35, 2.45 pm Eastern

Actual: 9.30 High

Intraday Cycle: (9.40H), 10.20L, 11.15H, 12.30L, 2.00H, 3.40L

Actual: 9.30 High.

There is another Major fixed Cycle due around 4/20, which is the next important date to watch

Friday, March 23, 2012

Has the Bond markets topped out?

The Bond markets were in the news recently as it dropped sharply last week,  as long term Interest rates spiked up, right at trend line support at the Friday 3/16 CIT (change in Trend), We bottomed 1 TD later on Monday 3/19. It has key Down trend line resistance at 138.00, and declining daily, a close above which is bullish. 
However, a drop below the recent 3/19 Lows at 135.05 would be bearish.

Other Daily CITs to watch are: 3/28, 4/12, 6/12, 6/27, 6/29

There is a regular 93 week Cycle in the Bond market, which is next due around the 7/13/12 week.

The Monthly Bonds is in a long term (Red) Up channel. There is a 73 Month cycle due in February 2012, but may have shifted into a 75 Month cycle due in July 2012.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

2012 is a bulish Year, but watch out for the 2013-15 Bear Years

On March 2nd, I mentioned a 120 Year Mega Crash cycle, that tops out on March 2012 and ends in July 2013 Major Low.

Some were lead to believe that this 120 year fixed Cycle was the main Cycle I was watching, which is not correct. The 120 year crash cycle is just one cycle of the many cycles I watch and it is not the most dominant right now. I posted it, as it was an interesting Cycle to note, but cycles expand and contract all the time , like the Universe and This cycle should expand to a later date imho.

In fact, 2012 should be a  volatile, but bullish year. I have many reasons to believe 2012 will end positive. Here are some reasons for a bullish 2012 and a bearish 2013-2015

1. The Master cycle suggests alot of volatility for 2012, but overall we should see a bullish 2012.
2. The January Barometer has good statistical odds and suggests 2012 should be a bullish year and supports the MC2 outlook.
3. The February effect, like the January effect is also bullish for 2012.
4. The election year cycle is generally bullish for 2012.
5. The Annual Forecast model is generally bullish for 2012.
6. The Chinese astrology is based on the 12 year Jupiter cycle and is bullish for 2012.

2012 is the year of the dragon and is bullish

2013 is the year of the Snake and is bearish
2014 is the year of the Horse and is bearish
2015 is the year of the Goat (sheep) and is bearish
In Chinese Astrology, which is the 12 year Jupiter Cycle, 2012 tends to bullish and 2013-2015 tends to be bearish.  Amazingly, this is the same findings of the 40 year depression Cycle.

The 40 year Depression Cycle
Bruce Larson at the Time & Cycles forum ( posted this:
"The poster below depicts the 1893 panic (120 years ago)

1893-1898 depression
1930-1933 Great Depression
!973-1975 Great Recession
All 40 years apart"

The next 40 year Cycle is 1973-75 + 40 years = 2013-15! 

Conclusion: The 120 year Cycle as well as the 40 year Cycle  and the Chines Astrology based 12 year Jupiter Cycle suggests trouble ahead between 2013 and 2015, but 2012 should still be a bullish year.

Tuesday, March 6, 2012

The Master Cycle2 update and Gann360's Symmetry chart

"So far the 2/29 MC High and 2/29 geometric and Apex CIT (Change in Trend) still stands.  
There is a 3/3 Solar CIT that is ideally a lower retest High today. We should now at least see a multi week decline begin."
The 2/29 Master Cycle High was a Bulls-eye Hit. We got a final confirmation with today's decline that 2/29 was the High for this move. The wedge formation suggests a sharp decline. First major support to overcome is 1337-40 SPX, the 2/10-15 swing low.

Take a look at Gann360's chart (click on chart to enlarge, you can follow "Gann360" on Twitter), who is a member of our T&C forum:
This is the symmetry point:

1. +471 CD = 10/4/11L, -471 CD = 3/6/09L
2. +619 CD = 2/29/12H ,-618 CD = 10/10/08L
3. +678 CD = 8/11/08H, -678 CD = 4/28/12 High/Low?

Friday, March 2, 2012

The 2/29 High and the 120 Year Mega Crash wave

In my 2/26 Master Cycle (MC) update I posted:  "The updated Master Cycle2 (MC2), since the 12/19/11 Lows projected a 68 Calendar Day rally into 2/25 High (2/24-27) or a 48 Trading Day rally into 2/29 High, which is both a 2/29 geometric CIT and a VIX Apex CIT."

So far the 2/29 MC High and 2/29 geometric and Apex CIT (Change in Trend) still stands.  
There is a 3/3 Solar CIT that is ideally a lower retest High today. We should now at least see a multi week decline begin.

The 120 Year Cycle is the Vedic Master Cycle and 2 X Gann's 60 Year Cycle.
In Vedic Astrology, all major and minor planetary cycles repeats every 120 years and major events tend to repeat every 120 years. 
There was a stock market crash that started from a March 1892 High = March 2012 High and saw a major multi month Panic into July 1893 +120 years = July 2013
This became known as the Panic of 1893 and led to 4 years of depression.
( 1892 (click on chart to enlarge) = 2012 and suggests: March 2012 major High and a Mega crash lower into July 2013 Major Low of Year.