Thursday, March 14, 2013

Review and the Flash Crash cycle Update

From last week 3/08 weekend Report: "OE weeks tend to be bullish. Statistics suggests any decline should be limited in OE week and above 1520 SPX by 3/15-18. Markets are also close to expanding triangle and channel resistance at 1555 SPX, so a pullback into 3/12 Solar CIT is expected, followed by a rally into 3/18H at 1560-65 SPX" 
Actual: Markets rallied to a 1556 SPX High and saw the expected 1 day pullback into 3/12 Solar CIT Low, before rallying to higher highs today.

What's next?: We should continue the rally into Monday 3/18 quadruple CIT High. Mercury also goes direct on 3/17. The 6 Lunar Month Cycle supports the rally into 3/18-19.

In my 3/5 blog post I mentioned this Flash Crash (FC) statistic:
7 out of 9 (78%) of the Flash Crash Cycles saw sharp 12% declines, 2 of 9, 22% did not see any decline.

Here is some more information on the FC cycle:
The 5/6/10 mini Crash became known as the Flash Crash. I discovered this cycle in 2010, when the Flash Crash occurred, which is why I named it the Flash crash cycle. This Cycle has been in the markets ever since the mini crash of 4/14/00 Low.  The FC Cycle is a 1-2 year long fixed cycle,  it will have a normal variance of a few weeks to a month. Once the Highs are in, we should see the FC Cycle decline, with a minimum 7% (110 SP's) to an average of 12% (187 SP's) decline which could even spillover into April.

3/17 Update: 
I first mentioned the Flash crash Cycle on Feb 26 2013 and that it was due in March 2013.

I was looking for a very important turning point at Monday's shorter term quadruple 3/18 CIT, which was 1 TD earlier at the Friday 3/15 High.

This reminded of the rare 3 long term geometric SPX CITs covering Decades, all clustering on one date, Friday 6/1/12, which was 1 TD later at the Monday 6/4/12 Major Low

There are Five of those seven Flash Cycle (FC) Harmonics that are EXACT within 0-2 days at the 3/15/13 High. The accuracy is simply amazing.

I will post the entire analysis after the  FC cycle has completed its course.

3/19 Update: 
 As the 1-2 year Flash Crash Cycle is a Fixed Cycle, it will have a +/- few weeks to a month variation. This means the FC Cycle could manifest in APRIL.

I have a more active dominant cycle that is more precise with the next Highs and Lows that tells me that will be the case.

3/21 Update:
There are 2 cycles I am currently watching, one is the FC fixed Cycle that is +/- a few weeks to a month
The other is the current dominant cycle that is much more precise as it predicted all the most recent Highs and Lows, like the 11/16/12L, 2/4/13L, 2/19H, 2/26 major Low, 3/6 Low and most recently the 3/18 High, which was 1 TD early at the 3/15H.
This cycle is very exact, and forecasted the current decline and is also looking for another rally.  
I know of no one that finds cycles this precise as all Cycle experts knows only of Fixed cycles, +/- a few weeks, like the FC Cycle.
The dominant cycle also tells me when the next major decline and FC should actually occur in April
It also knew that the decline was not quite over with yesterday's rally.

Saturday, March 9, 2013

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Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Review and Update on the Flash Crash Statistics

Review of the last week: Monday 2/25 evening report: “There are still good statistical indications that we should be higher than the January Month (1496 SPX) and > 1502 SPX by 2/28, in 3 TD, which in turn gives a 90% chance we close UP for 2013. This suggests we should see a short term bottom today or in the next day (2/25-26L) and see an oversold rally into 2/28. Conclusion: The current bias is 2/25L, 2/28H, 3/1-4L

Actual: The markets bottomed on 2/26L, rallied into 2/28H and declined into 3/1L.

From last night's Email:  "Various Cycles, including the Flash Crash analog suggests a rally into 3/5-6H"

Actual: From the 3/1 Low we rallied into today as expected and made fresh 5 year Highs.

What's next?:  Ideally we see "a" High today or (less likely) tomorrow. Today is the next geometric CIT and Midpoint of MeR and MeD. Also I have a regular 115 TD Cycle that is due today.

The 115 TD Cycle also has  3/05/13

6/8/10L -112- 11/16/10L -114- 5/2/11H -2X116- 4/2/12H -115- 9/14/12H -115- 3/5/13H

7/7/11H -115- 12/19/11L -114- 6/4/12L -115- 11/16/12L - 114 - 5/3/13

9/1/00H + 3141 TD (Pi)
= 3/05/13

I had some question on this blog wrt the Flash crash Cycle. Here are some of the statistics on it:
7 out of 9 (78%) of the Flash Crash Cycles saw sharp 12% declines, 2 of 9, 22% did not see any decline.