Wednesday, December 18, 2013

Intraday Time and Cycles Updates Wednesday Dec 18, 2013

3.10 pm Eastern: Final Update of the Raj T&C Free week


We are rallying into a last hour high as expected.
Today's Fed announcement looks like a Low instead of a High. (yellow Lines on the hourly chart).
This will be my last Update for the Free week.

If you want to subscribe, you can do so here: 
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We wish everyone Happy & Healthy Holidays.

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  2.20 pm Eastern T&C Intraday Update

Fed cuts bond-buying but stresses easy policy

Fed tapers by $10 Billion dollars, which led to a spike lower to 1767.99 SPX for 5 minutes at the 2.00 pm cycle Low, but will continue to ease, which led to the sharp rally afterwards, above the Make or Break trend line resistance at 1783-84 SPX, which is bullish.

We should still see a last hour High.


Intraday 5 min SPX Time CIT 12/18/13: 10.10, 11.05 Apex, 1.15*, 1.45, 3.25 pm

Actual:
10.15 High, 11.00 High, 1.16 Low, 1.35 Low,


Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40L), 10.30H, 11.15L, 12.20H, 2.00L, 3.40H

Actual: 9.40H, 9.55L, 10.15H, 10.55L, 12.30H, 1.15L, 2.00L
========================================================================

10.20 am Eastern T&C Intraday Update

Good Morning,

Welcome to the last day of our free week, we hope it has been enjoyable, informative and profitable.

The intraday cycle sees a 1st hour High and normal bias to be higher.

Also as yesterday was a down day, today will tend to be an Up day.

We have seen a 1st hour High so far today and are just above the 1784 SPX down trend line, which would be bullish if we stay above it.

Today is Fed decision day, which has often marked short term Highs in the past 6-7 months, within 1-2 days, as can be seen as the yellow vertical lines on the SPX hourly chart.



Intraday 5 min SPX Time CIT 12/18/13: 10.10, 11.05 Apex, 1.15*, 1.45, 3.25 pm
Actual: 10.15 High

Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40L), 10.30H, 11.15L, 12.20H, 2.00L, 3.40H
Actual: 9.55 Low, 10.15 High (In progress)

Wednesday sees a possible 9.40 Low+/-, rally to a 10.30 cycle High at the 10.10 CIT, decline to a 11.15 cycle Low at the 11.05 Apex CIT, rally to a 12.20 High at the 1.15 CIT, decline to 2.00 cycle Low at the 1.45 CIT, rally to a 3.40 cycle High at the 3.25 CIT.

Intraday Mebob Buy above 1778.25 /ES (Dec Emini SP)

Intraday Mebob Sell below 1777.00 /ES (Dec Emini SP)

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Intraday Time and Cycle Review Tuesday 12/17 and Forecast 12/18




Review: “Intraday 5 min SPX Time CIT 12/17/13: 9.35, 10.30, 11.25, 3.45 pm”

Actual: 9.30 High od day (HOD), 10.40 High, 11.30 Low of Day (LOD), 3.35 High

Review: “Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40L), 10.00H, 11.00L, 12.30H, 2.30L, 3.50H.

Tuesday sees a possible 9.40 Low at the 9.35 CIT, rally to a 10.00 cycle High at the 10.30 CIT, decline to a 11.00 cycle Low at the 11.25 CIT, rally to a 12.30 cycle High+/-30, decline to 2/30 cycle Low+/-30, rally to a 3.50 cycle High at the 3.45 CIT.”

Actual: 9.30HOD, 10.15H, 11.30LOD, 2.15H, 3.25H, 4.05L
The intraday cycle saw a 2.15 High and 4.05 Low.


Intraday Time and Cycle Forecast 12/18



Intraday 5 min SPX Time CIT 12/18/13: 10.10, 11.05 Apex, 1.15*, 1.45, 3.25 pm

Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40L), 10.30H, 11.15L, 12.20H, 2.00L, 3.40H

Wednesday sees a possible 9.40 Low+/-, rally to a 10.30 cycle High at the 10.10 CIT, decline to a 11.15 cycle Low at the 11.05 Apex CIT, rally to a 12.20 High at the 1.15 CIT, decline to 2.00 cycle Low at the 1.45 CIT, rally to a 3.40 cycle High at the 3.25 CIT.

Notes: There is an Apex CIT around 11.05 am. Fed's decision on IR is at 2.15 pm.
If we rally solidly above the 5 min Downtrend line at 1784 SPX, it is bullish, below is bearish.



Intraday Time and Cycles Tuesday Dec 17, 2013

 1.00 pm Eastern T&C Update
 
The midday high is lower than the 1st hour High, which suggests weakness into the last hour High.

We are still in the 12/16-17 Solar CIT window, so only if we decline below 1772 SPX today, will we see 1760 and 1745 SPX.

The downtrend line remains critical for the Bull/Bear Scenario short term.

Short term looks like a 5 min Bull flag, but we would need to break above the DTL at 1786 SPX to confirm a bullish break-out, which is not likely today.
Tomorrow's intraday sees a 1st hour Low and bias to be lower.
It is also the 1st Fed day and there is an 11.15 am Apex CIT.


Intraday 5 min SPX Time CIT 12/17/13: 9.35, 10.30, 11.25, 3.45 pm Eastern

Actual: 9.30 High, 10.40 High, 11.30 Low

Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40L), 10.00H, 11.00L, 12.30H, 2.30L, 3.50H

Actual: 9.30 High, 9.55 Low, 10.15 High, 11.30 Low,
12.55 High (in progress)
 
=============================================================== 10.25 am Eastern T&C Update
Good Morning,

Welcome to day 2 of OE crook's week.

As yesterday was an Up day, today will tend to be a consolidation or down day. 

The 5 min downtrend Line is acting as Key resistance at 1789-90 SPX and should be watched closely. 

If it holds, it would give a bearish bias and a solid rally above it, is bullish.

As yesterday' intraday cycle was not crystal clear, we will watch today for more clues, so far we have seen a 9.55L and 10.15H.

The 9.35 Time CIT was a 9.30 High, next is 10.30 am CIT.


Intraday 5 min SPX Time CIT 12/17/13: 9.35, 10.30, 11.25, 3.45 pm Eastern

Actual: 9.30 High,

Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40L), 10.00H, 11.00L, 12.30H, 2.30L, 3.50H

Actual: 9.30 High, 9.55 Low, 10.15 High (in progress)

Tuesday sees a possible 9.40 Low at the 9.35 CIT, rally to a 10.00 cycle High at the 10.30 CIT, decline to a 11.00 cycle Low at the 11.25 CIT, rally to a 12.30 cycle High+/-30, decline to 2/30 cycle Low+/-30, rally to a 3.50 cycle High at the 3.45 CIT.

Intraday Mebob Buy above 1778.50 /ES (Dec Emini SP)

Intraday Mebob Sell below 1776.75 /ES (Dec Emini SP)

Monday, December 16, 2013

Intraday Time and Cycle Review Monday 12/16 and Forecast Tuesday 12/17

Review Monday 12/16:




Review: “Intraday 5 min SPX Time CIT 12/16/13: 10.50, 11.25*, 12.00 pm Eastern”

Actual: 10.55 High, 11.30 High, 11.55 High

Review: “Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40H), 10.30L, 12.45H, 1.40L, 3.30H

Actual: 10.05HOD, 11.05L, 11.30H, 1.10L, 2.10H, 4.05L The intraday cycle saw a High am to Low pm day, with a 1st hour High and last hour Low.


Forecast Tuesday Dec 17:


Intraday 5 min SPX Time CIT 12/17/13: 9.35, 10.30, 11.25, 3.45 pm Eastern

Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40L), 10.00H, 11.00L, 12.30H, 2.30L, 3.50H

Tuesday sees a possible 9.40 Low at the 9.35 CIT, rally to a 10.00 cycle High at the 10.30 CIT, decline to a 11.00 cycle Low at the 11.25 CIT, rally to a 12.30 cycle High+/-30, decline to 2/30 cycle Low+/-30, rally to a 3.50 cycle High at the 3.45 CIT.

Notes: The intraday cycle Tuesday sees a 1st hour High and a normal bias to be higher, but we need to get above the 5 min downtrend line at 1790 SPX to get a stronger rally going. OE week often messes with the cycles and as Monday was an Up day, tomorrow will tend to be a down day. Rarely do you see back to back Up or down days. We do need to see a follow through rally to confirm the Lows are in.

Intraday Time and Cycles Updates Monday Dec 16, 2013

2.05 pm Eastern T&C Intraday Update


Markets so far made a 10.01 High and has been gradually declining, but still at lofty level, but the intraday cycle is still not crystal clear.


The best guess is that we are seeing a High am to Low pm day (green lines), which would suggest a last hour Low.

If correct then tomorrow sees a 1st hour High and bias to be higher.
From the 12/9 Solar High we were expecting a decline into 12/16 Solar CIT, which arrived at the 12/13 Low, 1 TD earlier.

Intraday 5 min SPX Time CIT 12/16/13: 10.50, 11.25*, 12.00 pm Eastern

Actual: 10.55 High, 11.30 High, 11.55 High

Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40H), 10.30L, 12.45H, 1.40L, 3.30H or Inverse 10.30H, 12.30L, 1.30H, 3.30L

Actual: 10.00H, 11.05L, 11.30H, 1.10L, 1.30H
===============================================================
10.45 am Eastern T&C Intraday Update

From the regular Raj T&C Daily Email:

"From Bill Meridian: “Since 1885 Jupiter trine Saturn coincides with lows and Jupiter trine Neptune coincides with short term highs. The next Jupiter 120 Saturn is tomorrow 12/13/2013L, which is 1 TD away from our 12/16 Solar CIT Low."

"We need to solidly take out the 1772 SPX intraday lows and decisively close below 1775 SPX to get a stronger decline going, otherwise it is possible the decline into Monday 12/16 Solar and Geometric CIT Low will be limited to the current Levels"

We jumped above the 5 min mini triangle, which is bullish and suggests a Low is already in.

Often in OE week, If one day is Up, the next day is down and next day is Up.

So far we have seen a 10.01 High and a 10.40 Low (in progress)

The Intraday cycle is a Low am to High pm day or could be inverted.

We need more data to confirm either way and see if Midday 12.30 is a High or a Low.

Today will determine what tomorrow's intraday cycle will be.


Intraday 5 min SPX Time CIT 12/16/13: 10.50, 11.25*, 12.00 pm Eastern

Actual:

Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40H), 10.30L, 12.45H, 1.40L, 3.30H or Inverse 10.30H, 12.30L, 1.30H, 3.30L

Actual: 10.01 High, 10.40 Low (in progress)

Monday sees a Low am to High pm day (or Inverse), with a possible 9.40 High+/-, decline to a 10.30 cycle Low at the 10.50 time CIT or more likely the 11.25 CIT LOD, rally to a 12.45 High at the 12.00 CIT, decline to a 1.40 Low+/-30, rally to a 3.30 High+/-.

Intraday Mebob Buy above 1785.25 /ES (Dec Emini SP)

Intraday Mebob Sell below 1783.25 /ES (Dec Emini SP)
===============================================================
9.25 am Eastern T&C Intraday Update
 
Good Morning,

Globex Futures are +8,75 after being down as much as -9.00.

Welcome to Option Expiration Crooks week, which often has an Up bias and tends to skew the times and cycles.

It is possible that the projected 12/16 Solar CIT Low arrived at the Globex Low and 1 TD earlier at Friday 12/13 Low.

We will have to wait and see how much it retraces today to get a better idea.

Today is a Low am to High pm day (or Inverse) and we should see a 1st hour 10.30 Low+/-, which means either way we should expect some retrace.

Saturday, December 14, 2013

Intraday Time and Cycle Review Friday 12/13 and Forecast Monday 12/16

Intraday Time and Cycle Review Friday 12/13

Review: “Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 12/13/13: 10.20, 1.35, 2.20*, 3.55 pm”


Actual: 10.25 Low of day (LOD), 1.35 High, 2.20 retest Low, 3.55 High

Review: “Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40L), 10.00H, 11.00L, 12.30H, 2.30L*, 3.50H. Friday sees a possible 9.40 Low+/-, rally to a 10.00 High at the 10.20 time CIT, decline to a 11.00 Low+/-30, rally to a 12.30 High+/-30, decline to 2.30 cycle Low at either the 1.35 or more likely the 2.20* CIT, we then rally to a 3.50 high at the 3.55 CIT.”

Actual: 9.40HOD, 10.25LOD, 1.35H, 2.25L, 3.30H The intraday cycle saw a last hour High as expected.


Intraday Time and Cycle Forecast Monday 12/16



Intraday 5 min SPX Time CIT (Change in Trend) Times are the pink vertical lines 12/16/13:
10.50, 11.25*, 12.00 pm Eastern

Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40H), 10.30L, 12.45H, 1.40L, 3.30H

***All intraday Cycle times are usually +/-30, but at times it could be + /- 60 min***
Biases suggested below can and do change depending on actual Price unfoldment.

Monday sees a Low am to High pm day (or Inverse), with a possible 9.40 High+/-, decline to a 10.30 cycle Low at either the 10.50 time CIT or more likely the 11.25 CIT and possible Low of day, rally to a 12.45 cycle High at the 12.00 CIT, decline to a 1.40 cycle Low+/-30, rally to a 3.30 cycle High+/-30.

Speculative Path: (9.40H), 10.50L, 11.25*LOD, 12.00H, 1.40L, 3.30H .

Notes: The 5 min chart is in a potential bearish triangle, if broken would target the 1763 SPX area.
We need to watch the 11.25 Eastern time CIT Monday as a potential Low of the day.

Friday, December 13, 2013

Intraday Updates Time and Cycles for Friday Dec 13, 2013.

4.05 pm Eastern T&C Intraday Update

"it is expected that tomorrow's intraday cycle will have a bearish bias and we can see a 2.20 Time CIT potential Low of the day"

The 2.20 Time CIT was projected to be the Low of the day and that is exactly what we got, a 2.25 Low of the day.


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 2.20 Eastern T&C Intraday Update

1.35 pm Time CIT High was another Bulls-eye hit, next to the 10.25 am Time CIT Low.

An astute trader mentioned that my Intraday Time and Cycles has been posted elsewhere, with out mentioning the source: http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/.


In the free week, you are allowed to post this elsewhere, only if you mention http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/ along with it.

Copyright Reminder: It is illegal to copy or forward the content of the Raj T&C Daily Email and it may not be reproduced in part or in its entirety or posted elsewhere on any forum, without the consent of its author.
==================================================================

1.05 pm Eastern T&C Intraday Update


We are seeing a sideways movement so far and we made a 12.30 lower High (so far), which suggests weakness and a last hour lower High.


We retested yesterday's Low at the 10.25 CIT Low.

The 10.20 Time CIT was the 10.25 Low of the day so far.

Monday's intraday cycle sees a Low am to High pm day (or Inverse)

We need to solidly take out yesterday's lows and close below 1775 SPX to get a stronger decline going, otherwise it is possible the decline into 12/16 Low will be limited to the current Levels, especially if we keep going sideways.


Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 12/13/13: 10.20, 1.35, 2.20*, 3.55 pm Eastern


Actual: 10.25 Low, 1.35 High


Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40L), 10.00H, 11.00L, 12.30H, 2.30L*, 3.50H

Actual: 9.40 High, 10.25 Low,11.05 Low, 12.30 High?

==================================================================
10.15 am Eastern T&C Intraday Update

Good Morning,

The intraday cycle today normally has a bullish bias, with a 1st hour High and a normal bias to be higher, but as the hourly cycle turned lower, we should see a bearish bias and a down market today. Watch the intraday Mebob (below) for clues.

Here is what to look for:

If the midday High is higher than the 1st hour High, it indicates strength and we will then see a last hour highest High.

If the midday high is lower than the 1st hour High, it indicates weakness and we will then see a last hour lower High.

We still need to get a solid close below 1775 SPX to get a stronger decline going into Monday 12/16 Solar CIT Lows+/-1.

Overall, the bias is we should still see lower lows the next few days and make a 12/16 Lows.

Swing traders were looking for a 12/9 Solar CIT High and a decline into 12/16 Solar CIT Low.

12/17-18 is Fed Days in OE Crook's week.
 


Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 12/13/13: 10.20, 1.35, 2.20*, 3.55 pm Eastern
Actual:

Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40L), 10.00H, 11.00L, 12.30H, 2.30L*, 3.50H
Actual: 9.40 High, 10.00 Low,

Friday sees a possible 9.40 Low+/-, rally to a 10.00 cycle High at the 10.20 time CIT, decline to a 11.00 Low+/-30, rally to a 12.30 High+/-30, decline to 2.30 cycle Low at either the 1.35 or more likely the 2.20* CIT, we then rally to a 3.50 high at the 3.55 CIT.


Intraday Mebob Buy above 1770.50 /ES (Dec Emini SP)

Intraday Mebob Sell below 1769.25 /ES (Dec Emini SP)

Thursday, December 12, 2013

Intraday Time and Cycles Review 12/12 and Forecast 12/13


Intraday Time and Cycles Review & Forecasts

Review Thursday 12/12/13: “Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times : 11.55, 12.25-30 pm Eastern”
Actual: 11.55 High, 12.25 Low of Day (LOD). The 12.25-30 Double CIT was the Low of the day.
(Click on charts to enlarge)

Review: “Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40L), 10.30H, 12.30L, 1.30H, 3.30L
Thursday sees a High am to Low pm day (or Inverse), with a possible 9.40 Low+/-, rally to a 10.30 cycle High+/-30, decline to a 12.30 cycle Low at either the 11.55 or 12.25-30 double CIT, rally to a 1.30 cycle High+/-30, decline to a 3.30 cycle Low+/-30.”
Actual: 9.45HOD, 12.25LOD, 3.00H, 4.05L. The intraday cycle saw a High am to Low pm day, with a 1st hour 9.45 High of day and a last hour 4.05 Low.


Intraday Time and Cycles Forecast Friday Dec 13, 2013 


Intraday 5 min SPX Time CIT (Change in Trend) are the red vertical lines 12/13/13:  
10.20, 1.35, 2.20*, 3.55 pm Eastern

Intraday Cycle  12/13/13 is the Cyan lines: (9.40L), 10.00H, 11.00L, 12.30H, 2.30L*, 3.50H

***All intraday Cycle times are usually +/-30, but at times it could be + /- 60 min***
Biases suggested below can and do change depending on actual Price unfoldment.

Friday sees a possible 9.40 Low+/-, rally to a 10.00 cycle High at the 10.20 time CIT, decline to a 11.00 Low+/-30, rally to a 12.30 High+/-30, decline to 2.30 cycle Low at either the 1.35 or more likely the 2.20* CIT, we then rally to a 3.50 high at the 3.55 CIT.

Speculative Path: (9.40L), 10.20H, 11.00L, 12.30H, 1.35L, 2.20L*, 3.55H

Notes: as the Hourly and Daily Trends turned lower, it is expected that tomorrow's intraday cycle will have a bearish bias and we can see a 2.20 Time CIT potential Low of the day 













Intraday Time and cycles 12/12/13

12/12/13 1.15 pm Eastern

Note: My Yahoo and gmail are having issues, so all updates will be posted publicly on this forum.
 



"If we manage to rally above 1783-84 SPX steep down channel on the 5 min chart, it would be short term bullish.
"
1783 SPX down channel resistance held and we took out the quadruple support at 1775-79 SPX, which triggers a sharper decline to 1760 SPX and 1745 SPX Head and Shoulder target. 
This might take a few days to accomplish into ideally the 12/16 Solar CIT Low..

We are seeing a High am to Low pm day after all, as we saw a  12.30 CIT Low.
The intraday cycle could only be confirmed after the midday Low (or High).
This means tomorrow sees a 1st hour High and a normal bias to be higher, but as the hourly trend has turned lower, we should see a down bias tomorrow as well.

Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 12/12/13: 11.55, 12.25-30 pm Eastern
Actual: 11.55 High, 12.30 Low

Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40L), 10.30H, 12.30L, 1.30H, 3.30L or Inverse: (9.40H), 10.30L, 12.45H, 1.40L, 3.30H
Actual: 9.50 High, 11.15 High, 12.30 Low

======================================================================================

12/12/13 11.10 am Eastern

"If Tomorrow 12/12 is a Low am to High pm day instead, then all the above intraday cycles will be inverted"

We have seen a 9.45 High and a 10.20 Low suggesting a Low am to High pm day instead.
If correct then the intraday Cycles for the next 4 days are as follows:

Thursday 12/12 sees a Low am to High pm day

Friday 12/13 sees a 1st hour Low and bias to be lower.

Monday 12/16 sees a High am to Low pm day (or Inverse)

Tuesday 12/17 sees a 1st hour High and bias to be higher

Wednesday 12/18 sees a 1st hour Low and bias to be lower.

Please note: I will be posting all the emails from the free week at my public blog, http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/, just in case you miss any.


======================================================================================

12/12/13 10.30 am Eastern
Good Morning,

We have declined right into quadruple Make or Break support at 1775-1779 SPX, with 1775.59 SPX intraday Low so far.
If we see a solid decline below this MOB support, we will see a sharper decline and see the 1760 and 1745 SPX targets 



Today is a High am to Low pm day or Inverse.

We have seen a 9.45 High and a 10.20 Low (so far),making it possible we are seeing  a Low am to High pm day instead.

If correct, the Low is in at the 1st hour (10.20) Low and we see a rally into a midday High (green Line)

We need to see more data to confirm either way.
Yesterday was an Inversion day, which can spill into the 1st hour today. Once today's intraday cycle is determined, the next 4 day's intraday cycles will be determined.
If we manage to rally above 1783-84 SPX steep down channel on the 5 min chart, it would be short term bullish.

Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 12/12/13: 11.55, 12.25-30 pm Eastern

Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40L), 10.30H, 12.30L, 1.30H, 3.30L or Inverse: (9.40H), 10.30L, 12.45H, 1.40L, 3.30H

Actual: 9.45 High, 10.20 Low

Thursday sees a High am to Low pm day (or Inverse), with a possible 9.40 Low+/-, rally to a 10.30 cycle High+/-30, decline to a 12.30 cycle Low at either the 11.55 or 12.25-30 double CIT, rally to a 1.30 cycle High+/-30, decline to a 3.30 cycle Low+/-30.

Intraday Mebob Buy above 1779.75 /ES (Dec Emini SP)

Intraday Mebob Sell below 1778.25 /ES (Dec Emini SP)



Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Ho Ho ho, Free week for daytraders Only

Free week for Day Traders only, starting tomorrow 12/12.
The regular swing traders information is not included.

Email us at timeandcycles@gmail.com

 =======================================================================================


1. Welcome to the Raj T&C Free week for Day traders only.

Please note the swing trades will not be discussed in the coming week, but I will mention that swing traders were swing short from the 12/9 Solar & Geometric & Apex CIT (Change in Trend) High.
Please take some time to review some of the rules wrt daytrading and Money management that will be in your next email.
The regular Raj T&C Daily Email is about 20 pages long and is for both the day trader and swing trader.
A sample skeleton Daily Email will be sent shortly to get an idea what it is all about.
Time: Over time I have discovered 2 timing techniques that I currently use to determine the daily CITs:
1. Solar CITs that are 84-90% accurate
2. Geometric CITs that are 70-80% accurate, which is used for the intraday Timing CITs as well.

Cycles: I have also discovered what I call "Active and Master" Cycles that predict precise Highs and Lows +/- maximum 1 Trading Day.

The Raj Intraday Time and Cycles consist of intraday geometric CITs and an intraday cycle that I learned many years ago from a Delta Master.

The intraday information is by no means the "Holy Grail", but it could help you along the way in becoming successful in trading.


You need to determine in advance if you are day trader or more of a swing trader as that will determine your level of success in trading, some are more suited for swing trading, while others are very comfortable being flat overnight.

Success in trading requires not only useful and accurate knowledge, but tremendous amount of discipline and Money Management as well.


We wish you best of Luck in all your trades and hope you enjoy the coming week.

 =======================================================================================

2. Intraday Cycle Review and Forecasts 12/12/13 and forecast for the coming week


 Review & Forecasts

Time Review: “Intraday 5 min SPX CIT 12/11/13: 10.10, 10.55, 11.45, 1.20 pm Eastern”

Actual: 10.10 low, 11.05 High, 11.45 High, 1.30 Low

Cycle Review: “Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: Inversion day 79% 10.20L, 11.40H, 68/32% 1.00L/H, 2.00H/L, 3.40L/H Wednesday sees an Inversion day with a 79% chance we see a 10.20 cycle Low at either the 10.10 or 10.55 CIT, rally to a 11.40 cycle High at the 11.45 CIT, then there is a 68% chance we see a 3.40L and a 32% chance we invert.”

Actual: 9.35HOD, 10.30L 11.05H, 12.30L, 2.00H, 3.50LOD The intraday cycle saw a last hour Low. Thursday sees a High am to Low pm day (or Inverse).
 ======================================================================================

Intraday Times and cycles for Thursday 12/12/13.

Notes: There is the intraday cycle (Cyan lines) and the intraday Time Change in Trend (CIT) (pink vertical lines on 5 min chart) to watch.

The proprietary timing turning points are my own discovery. They work 70-80% of the time, sometimes they are exact, other times they are off by 5-10 min or 20-30% they don't work at all.

The intraday cycle is a proprietary 4 CD cycle that I learned from a Delta Master. Elliott waves shown are only a tool to explain both the longer and shorter term cycle’s direction in my work.

Intraday 5 min SPX CIT (Change in Trend) Times are the red vertical lines 12/12/13: 11.55, 12.25-30 pm Eastern
 
Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40L), 10.30H, 12.30L, 1.30H, 3.30L

***All intraday Cycle times are usually +/-30, but at times it could be + /- 60 min***

Biases suggested below can and do change depending on actual Price unfoldment.

Thursday sees a High am to Low pm day (or Inverse), with a possible 9.40 Low+/-, rally to a 10.30 cycle High+/-30, decline to a 12.30 cycle Low at either the 11.55 or 12.25-30 double CIT, rally to a 1.30 cycle High+/-30, decline to a 3.30 cycle Low+/-30.

Speculative Path: (9.40L), 10.30H, 11.55L, 12.25-30L, 1.30H, 3.30L, all +/-30 min.

 =======================================================================================

The intraday cycles for the coming free week:

Thursday 12/12 sees a High am to Low pm day or Inverse

Friday 12/13 sees a 1st hour High and bias to be higher.

Monday 12/16 sees a Low am to High pm day

Tuesday 12/17 sees a 1st hour Low and bias to be lower

Wednesday 12/18 sees a 1st hour High and bias to be higher.


If Tomorrow 12/12 is a Low am to High pm day instead, then all the above intraday cycles will be inverted.

 =======================================================================================
 
The Mebob rules are a good trend following system.


From my friend Mebob, Mr Rob Falk, in his own words:

The Mebob trade has been described incorrectly by many people. Probably the most misunderstood part of it has to do with the CLOSE on the buy and sell signal. The buy or sell signals are only confirmed by the CLOSING PRICE of the following 5 minute bars and NOT the high or low. The basic concept as I originally presented it to Avid is as follows.

1. The MEBOB bar is a five minute bar that starts at 9:05 Central and ends at 9:10 Central time.

2. If you draw a horizontal line on your chart from the high and low of that bar you have the key points for the day.

3. If you CLOSE above the high of the Mebob on any subsequent 5 minute bar you buy.

4. If you CLOSE below the low of the Mebob you sell.

The most asked question is, "where is the stop loss". That is pretty obvious by the rules but some days the Mebob bar is quite big and for some to take a 8-10 point loss is more than they want to accept. My general answer is to use a 5.25 trailing stop on your entry. I have found over the years that if the market reverses more than 5 points from the buy or sell signal it will keep going.
 

Friday, November 15, 2013

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast

http://www.safehaven.com/article/31818/raj-time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast

From my last 11/4 public blog post: “The next Time and Cycle cluster to watch is on 11/7/13 as it is both a Solar and Cycle CIT.”

Forecast from the 11/4 Raj T&C weekend report: “We see a rally into 11/7 Solar CIT (Change in Trend) and then see a decline into 11/11 geometric and 11/12 Cycle CIT Low. From there we see a rally into 11/14 major High.”

Actual: We rallied into 11/7 Solar CIT High, retesting the 10/30 Solar CIT High and saw a sharp intraday reversal. 11/7 was both a High and Low. We then saw a minor pullback into 11/13 Low at Open, right at the 11/12 cycle CIT and are currently rallying into the 11/15 Solar CIT.

What’s next: We should make a Friday 11/15/13 Solar CIT major High that could spill into Monday 11/18/13 and see a sharp decline afterwards.

Squared dates from 4/26/10H
+64 = 6/28/10 (low)    +100 = 8/2/10 (high) 
+121 = 8/23/10 (low)  +196 = 11/5/10 (high
+225 = 12/5/10           16^2 = 256 = 1/7/11 Low
17^2 =  02/09/11        18^2 =  03/16/11 Low 
19^2 =  04/22/11         20^2 = 05/31/11 High => bulls eye hit 
21^2 = 7/11/11H-4     22^2 = 8/23/11 => 8/22/11 Low           
23^2 = 10/07/11L-3    24^2 = 11/23/11+2                           
25^2 = 1/11/12H         26^2 = 3/02/12 => 3/6/12 Low
27^2 = 4/24/12L-1      28^2 = 6/18/12 è 6/19/12 High
29^2 = 8/14/12 Miss   30^2 = 10/12/12 è 10/18/12H
31^2 = 12/12/12 miss   32^2 =2/13/13 miss
33^2 =4/19/13L 
34^2 =6/25/13L
35^2 =9/2/13=8/30L
36^2 = 11/12/13 => 11/15/13 Solar CIT High?


Next to the Squared Dates, mentioned above, there is also a regular 74 Trading Day Cycle that is due on 11/15.

From the annual Forecast made near the beginning of the year, on Feb 3, 2013: http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2013/02/a-few-highlights-of-2012-annual.html

Contrary to popular Opinion and despite plenty of large swings this year, we should still see a bullish 2013 that closes higher for the year.”

Actual: Overall, I am still looking for the market to end 2013 near their All time Highs, short term sharp pullbacks notwithstanding.

Monday, November 4, 2013

Review and Forecast of the various Time and Cycles.


http://www.safehaven.com/article/31691/review-and-forecast-of-the-various-time-and-cycles

Forecast made on my last public blog on 10/3/13: “We should continue to decline and make an 10/4-7 major Low. I don’t have any high quality Time CITs supporting this Cycle CIT Low date, but the next Solar Time CIT on 10/9 should be another Low. In general, it is the Bulls turn to stampede higher into my next proprietary Time and Cycle cluster CIT.”

Actual: We made an 10/9/13 Solar CIT major Low at 1646.47 SPX, 2 TD off the expected 10/7 Lows and which was the 35 week (green lines) cycle Low (click on weekly chart to enlarge) and we rallied a powerful 158.75 SP’s so far into 10/30/13 All time Highs at 1775.22 SPX, which was another version of the 35 week Cycle (pink lines). The market rallied into long term 3/6/09L-10/4/11L and 4/26/10- 2/18/11H parallel channel resistance at the 10/30/13H at 1775 SPX. The markets have been straight up since the 10/9 Solar CIT Low into the 10/30H, with only 1 TD pullback days. In the last 3 days, we have seen 3 minor back to back decline days so far, which is a Change in the trend (CIT) since the 10/9 Low.


There was a Time and Price Square CIT on 10/29/13, supporting the 10/30/13 High.
Price: 3/6/09L-2/18/11H = 677 SP's
Time: 3/6/09L + 677 TD = 10/29/13 => 10/30/13H.

What’s next:  Does this all means 10/30/13 was a major High? It is possible, but as all trends are up, surprises will be to the upside, so we must see some price confirmations either way.


The 319 hourly cycle was either an 10/31H at 1768.53 SPX or the 11/1 Low at 1752.70 SPX. Any decline below 1752.70 SPX is confirmed bearish and leads to a test of the 1730-40 SPX area. Conversely, any rally above 1768.53 SPX is bullish for a test of the 10/30 High at 1775 SPX. The next Time and Cycle cluster to watch is on 11/7/13 as it is both a Solar and Cycle CIT.

11/7 Update: We rallied into the 11/7 Solar and Cycle CIT, made a higher High and have now reversed sharply lower. That is a prefect CIT today, with a secondary High in place today as the 10/30 time and Price Square High still stands. It doesn't get any better than that.
 Various notes: There are various Time and Cycles techniques to determine CITs (Change in Trend), Highs and Lows and below is the Raj T&C Daily Email order of importance:

  1. Cycles Research to find dominant or active cycles first. If a cycle has been discovered to have predicted at least 3-5 recent Highs or Lows+/-1, it is considered dominant or active and can then predict future Highs and Lows, within 1 TD accuracy, as opposed to Fixed cycles, that are +/- many days and weeks.
  2. Active Cycles that has a proprietary Vedic & Biblical numerology are Master Cycles.
  3. Time Research to find the Solar CITs that have a high 84-90% accuracy and Geometric CITs that have a 70-80% accuracy.
  4. All other Time and Cycle techniques are also important, but they serve to support the above two, these includes Fibonacci Timing, Master Time Code CITs, Squares of Time and Price, squared Dates from past dates, Astro CITs, Elliott waves, Fixed cycles, etc.
  5. We always need to consider the Solar and Geometric Timing CITs in combination with the dominant Cycles. The ideal is that they support and confirm each other, which increase the accuracy to 90-95%, but if they don't, it will cause additional volatility.
  6. Cycle CITs. In addition to Solar and geometric Time CITs, there are also Cycle CITs. when cycles are found that predicted at least 3-5 previous Highs and Lows, but has many Inversions, it is not considered an active cycle, but it does produce future Cycle CITs, ie High or Lows. This is as opposed to Active Cycles (1&2 above) that have predicted at least 3-5 previous Highs and Lows and have No Inversions.

  

Friday, November 1, 2013

OT: Why Our Brains Age—and How to Slow the Aging Process

Why Our Brains Age—and How to Slow the Aging Process


http://issue9.tmmagazine.org/slowing-the-aging-process.html



Why Our Brains Age—and
How to Slow the Aging Process

By Linda Egenes

Alarik Arenander, Ph.D., is Director of the Brain Research Institute and an expert in the neurobiology of brain development and mind-body health. He has conducted pioneering research at the University of California at Los Angeles, Penn State University at Hershey, University of Wisconsin at Madison, and Maharishi University of Management in Iowa. Here Enlightenment asks him to share his knowledge about brain physiology and how to keep our brains healthy as we age.

Enlightenment: Is there a relationship between stress and aging?

Dr. Alarik Arenander: Yes. Stress is a major source of disorder in brain functioning. In particular, the prefrontal cortex of the brain is very sensitive to stress, lack of sleep, poor diet, and substance abuse—all of which severely reduce its ability to function properly. Stress and fatigue cause the prefrontal cortex to go “offline.”

Aging is a process—a progressive disconnect or loss of order in the physiological and psychological systems…

Aging is a progressive dysfunction that starts even in 20- or 30-year-olds, accumulates with time, and morphs into disorders of bodily, mental, and behavioral function.

This is important because the prefrontal cortex is considered the “CEO” of the brain. It regulates judgment, planning, problem solving, decision making, moral reasoning, and sense of self—really important functions! And guess what? Research reveals that this key orchestrator of brain function increasingly goes offline with age, especially in people with Alzheimer’s.
So, yes, stress is a factor in aging and definitely impacts in a negative way the brain’s main control unit, the prefrontal cortex. And as we know, the Transcendental Meditation technique has been shown to reduce stress better than any other stress-reduction technique available, in part by creating remarkably high levels of brain coherence in this region and across the whole brain.

Enlightenment: How would you define aging, and when does it start?

Dr. Alarik Arenander: Aging is a progressive disconnect or loss of order within the body and mind. What people don’t realize is that the key markers for aging start as early as the third decade of life. By the time a person in their 60s or 70s approaches their doctor to discuss a concern about memory and thinking, the underlying aging process may have already been going on for 40 or 50 years.
So aging is a process that starts even in 20- or 30-year-olds, that accumulates with time, and morphs into disorders of the body, mind, and behavior.

Enlightenment: Are there known causes of dementia or Alzheimer’s?

Dr. Arenander: Age is the biggest risk factor or determinant for dementia, with Alzheimer’s disease being the most common type of dementia. By the time a person reaches 80 years of age, they have a 50 percent chance of being diagnosed with Alzheimer’s. This is not a good outlook.

Risk factors for Alzheimer’s [besides age] include genetics, the quality of education, the quality of the work environment, diet, chronic disease, environmental toxins, substance abuse, and
how many times you’ve hit your head.

Other risk factors include genetics, the quality of education, their work environment, diet, chronic disease, environmental toxins, and substance abuse. And let’s not forget how many times you’ve hit your head. Brain trauma is an important cause of Alzheimer’s later in life. That’s why it is so important to wear a helmet when you ride your bicycle. You only get one brain, and all these risk factors add up to build a case for or against whether you get dementia or Alzheimer’s.
One important note here is that with the exception of age, most known risk factors are things we actually have control over. In fact, it’s possible to be 80, 90, or even 100 years of age, and to function as well as a college student. Research suggests that the brains of these highly functional elderly people are more orderly than less functional elderly individuals. The famous Alzheimer’s study of nuns documented that those with more complex cognitive functioning, or orderliness, early in their life had a better quality of life later on.
As we age, we need to create more order in the brain. Order refers to the intelligent flow of information. You could think of disorder as “noise” in the brain, and order as the “signal” in the brain. So, when the ratio of signal-to-noise decreases as a part of the aging process, thinking can become confused and memory fails. So we want to strengthen the signal, the order, while doing what we can to reduce the noise or disorder.
Most risk factors introduce disorder into the physiology, and this is something we can try to prevent or reduce. Unfortunately, very few people introduce order into their lives in an effective way. Most people’s diet and lifestyle, for example, do not add order. In fact, they actually decrease order.
With more order in the brain system, the impact of risk factors for aging and Alzheimer’s are greatly reduced. If you have a way to instill more order in your brain, you can hold off, prevent, or even fix cognitive loss, which correlates with loss of brain functioning. That’s where the practice of the TM® technique becomes very helpful.

With the exception of age, most known risk factors are things we have control over. In fact, it’s possible to be elderly—80, 90, or 100 years of age—and to function as well as a college student.

Enlightenment: What does science tell us are the main ways to create and maintain orderliness in the brain as we approach our 50s and 60s? Is there any research on this?

Dr. Arenander: Most research focuses on introducing various forms of orderliness into the brain physiology and the body. For example, easily walking a few miles each day can have a positive effect on brain function in aging individuals. Also, exercising our mental functions such as memory and sensory and motor activities can lead to improved performance in these specific areas. Software is available that has some good effects. Challenging cognitive activity can be helpful as well—taking on new projects, taking classes, doing crossword puzzles, learning a new language, etc.
Since aging is associated with increased inflammation, foods that offer anti-inflammatory phytonutrients are an important part of an anti-aging diet. These foods include most fruits and vegetables of color. Who doesn’t like blueberries or strawberries? Most blue, purple, and red foods yield significant antioxidant activity, besides tasting good. Of course, one needs to buy them organically. Otherwise, these same foods can carry high loads of toxic agricultural chemicals.
You can also exercise your emotions by staying socially active. Higher levels of social engagement appear to have some protective effect.

You could think of disorder as “noise” in the brain. So, when the ratio of signal-to-noise decreases in the aging process, the thinking becomes confused and memory fails. So we want to strengthen the signal, or order, while doing what
we can to reduce the noise, or disorder.

But science would argue that the most important category is rest—that is, some means of naturally bringing about greater degrees of orderliness. With age, sleep can become shortened and fragmented. Most individuals are sleep deprived from an early age and never allow the brain to benefit from the nourishing value of a full night’s sleep. Adequate nighttime sleep is important.
Research supports the idea that even sleep is not enough. We need to experience a more concentrated and enlivening form of rest. That’s why I recommend that individuals who wish to optimize the aging process begin to meditate. Decades of research on the practice of the Transcendental Meditation technique indicate that every risk factor, perhaps even the main risk factor of age itself, can be positively influenced by the practice of this simple, enjoyable meditation.
For example, the twice-daily routine of meditation can significantly lower one’s biological age. You could be 60 years old but play tennis like a 45-year-old. Research also shows that individuals who practice the Transcendental Meditation technique live longer on average and have less chronic illness—that is, they experience a longer and better quality of life than individuals who do not practice the technique.

Enlightenment: How can Transcendental Meditation practice accomplish all these benefits for the aging process?

Dr. Arenander: A key finding of brain research is that with age, the orderliness of brain functioning is progressively lost. Brain orderliness, as measured by coherence of the electrical waves in the brain, is a powerful indicator of how orderly the brain’s 100 billion cells are. When different parts of the brain start to function in better alignment, or in phase with each other, it is possible to quantify the level of integration in rhythmic, orderly wave patterns. This is called brainwave coherence, and it correlates strongly with improved mental functioning and improved aging.
Dr. Alarik Arenander

Decades of research on the practice of the Transcendental Meditation technique indicate that every risk factor, perhaps even the main risk factor of age, can be positively influenced by the practice
of this simple, enjoyable meditation.

A number of good studies have shown that meditation, specifically the TM practice, can create remarkable levels of brain wave coherence. My own research shows that brainwave coherence increases quickly when one learns this simple technique—and continues to develop in the brain even during dynamic activity. This finding is important for a couple of reasons.
Firstly, research shows that with a tool like the TM technique, we don't have to lead a life of mental deterioration. The brain has flexibility and growth opportunities at any age. Just because we are getting older doesn't mean we have to move in the direction of senility or dementia; the research clearly indicates that there are ways to generate more orderly functioning in the brain.
More importantly, the increase in brainwave coherence during TM practice extends into waking activity—that is, after meditation—indicating that this form of meditation leads to profound, enduring changes in brain orderliness with regular practice. These changes support a long and healthy life.
These findings of increased brainwave coherence are consistent with hundreds of studies showing that orderliness increases in the mind, body, emotions, and behavior as a result of Transcendental Meditation practice.
For example, research on the TM program shows a reduction in most chronic illnesses, including cardiovascular disease and its risk factors, such as hypertension, elevated cholesterol levels, metabolic syndrome, insulin resistance, and substance abuse. Studies also indicate that decreased biological aging and extended length of life result from the regular practice of the TM technique.
Finally, the research shows a reduction of risk factors for Alzheimer’s and dementia. These findings are all symptoms of increased orderliness in mind and body.

Seven ways to increase orderliness in brain functioning

  1. The most important category is rest. Getting a good night’s sleep is important.
  2. You can also benefit from a more concentrated and orderly form of rest. As a researcher and neuroscientist, I can say that the TM program is far and away the most effective and well-researched program for accomplishing this.
  3. Walking easily a few miles a day can have a positive effect on your brain functioning.
  4. Exercising your mind, such as memory and sensory and motor activities, can lead to improved performance in these areas.
  5. Exercise your emotions by staying socially active. Higher levels of social engagement appear to have some protective effect.
  6. Challenging cognitive activity can be helpful—take on new projects or classes, do crossword puzzles, learn a new language, etc.
  7. Take advantage of foods that offer anti-inflammatory phytonutrients. An anti-aging diet can include most fruits and vegetables of color.

Thursday, October 3, 2013

We are close to a Major Low

http://www.safehaven.com/article/31335/we-are-close-to-a-major-low

From my last 9/17 public blog post:”We should rally into a 9/18 Solar CIT High+/-1 and see a decline into the next Time and Cycle cluster Low”

Two forecasts were made in the last few weeks:

Forecast 1: From the 9/18 Daily Email: “We are extremely overbought and we should see a solid 30-50 SP pullback into the 9/24 T&C Cluster CIT Low.”

Actual: The 9/18 Solar time CIT (Change in Trend) was the 9/19 High near the open (Point “A” on the chart below) Swing traders were told to short and keep the stop at the 9/19 High, we then declined 42.25 SP’s into 9/25 Lows (Point “B” on the chart). Here were the various reasons for the 9/19H and 9/25L:

1. The 9/18 Solar CIT was the 9/19 High near the Open.
2. There was a 9/23 Long term CIT, which was the 9/19H, 2 TD earlier.
3. The 472-75 CD Cycle was the 9/19/13H:
7/15/08L-475-11/2/09L-473-2/18/11H-472-6/4/12L-472-9/19/13H.
4. The 186 TD Cycle arrived at the 9/19H as well.
5. The 9/24 geometric Time CIT was the 9/25 Low.


Forecast 2: From the 9/27 Daily Email: “There is one Bear Cycle that suggests a 9/26 High, then sharply lower into 10/4-7 Lows. The markets are getting spooked by another Government shutdown by 10/1/13 and could see a sharper sell-off. The ideal target for this decline is the Make or Break 11/16/12L – 6/24/13L Uptrend channel at 1665 SPX or the 1657 SPX H&S Target”

From the 9/28-30 Weekend Email: “There is an 10/1-2 Time CIT, even though the Bear cycle above says nothing about the 10/1-2 Time CIT date, the bias is we make a 9/30 lower Low and see a sharp rally into an 10/1-2 High, before we turn south once again into 10/4-7 Lows. The SP Cycle has an 10/1 CIT. The 23 TD cycle is next due on 10/1. There is a 10/1 geometric and 10/2 Solar CIT”

Actual: The markets saw the 9/26 High at 1703.85 SPX (Point “C” on chart above), which was the 9/25 Solar time CIT High and where subscribers went short. We saw a sharp 29 SP decline into the 9/30 Low (Point “D”), saw a brief sharp 22 SP rally into 10/1 High at the close (Point “E”). The SP Cycle 10/1 CIT, The 23 TD cycle on 10/1, the 10/1 geometric and the 10/2 Solar CIT were all the 10/1 High. We then reversed lower into today, declining 30+ SP’s from the 9/26H so far. Despite the shutdown news driven market, the Bear cycle that saw the 9/26 High and then sharp decline into 10/5 Lows has been accurate so far and highly profitable for our swing traders who went short at the 9/26 Highs.



What’s next?: We should continue to decline and make an 10/4-7 major Low. I don’t have any high quality Time CITs supporting this Cycle CIT Low date, but the next Solar Time CIT on 10/9 should be another Low. In general, it is the Bulls turn to stampede higher into my next proprietary Time and Cycle cluster CIT. 

This is my last public post for quite some time as the coming weeks should be a wonder to behold.