Wednesday, April 23, 2014

April 22-24 is the next swing High

http://www.safehaven.com/article/33547/april-22-24-is-the-next-swing-high

In my last post on April 10, I was looking for a 4/11-14 major swing Low.

Forecast made in the 4/12 Raj T&C weekend report: "After the 4/11-14L, the bias is higher into 4/22-24H at the 4/21 Solar and 4/22& 4/24 geometric CIT."

Actual: We made an 4/11 Low as expected (click on chart to enlarge) and have so far rallied 70 SP's into 4/22 High, right at the upper edge of the 8.5 week large trading range & sideways channel.



What's Next: We make an 4/22-24 swing High at the 4/21 Solar, 4/22 Geometric and 4/24 Geometric CIT.

There are a cluster of 144 TD, 360 TD and 250/500 TD Cycles due the next 2 weeks.

144 TD cycles:
10 X 144 = 1440 TD + 08/11/08H= 5/01
09 X 144 = 1296 TD + 03/06/09L = 4/30, 1296 is also 36 Squared.
08 X 144 = 1152 TD + 09/03/09L = 4/4/14H!
07 X 144 = 1008 CD + 7/21/11H = 4/24
07 X 144 = 1008 TD + 4/26/10H = 4/28
06 X 144 =  864 TD + 11/16/10L = 4/25
05 X 144 =  720 TD + 06/16/11L = 4/29
04 X 144 =  576 TD + 12/19/11L = 4/4/14H! (-1 TD)
03 X 144 =  432 TD + 08/02/12L = 4/23
02 X 144 =  288 TD + 02/26/13L = 4/17
01 X 144 =  144 TD + 09/19/13H = 4/16

360 TD Cycles:

1 X 360 = 11/16/12L +   360 TD = 4/25
2 X 360 = 06/16/11L +   720 TD = 4/29
3 X 360 = 01/14/10H + 1080 TD = 4/30
4 X 360 = 08/11/08H + 1440 TD = 5/01

250 TD Cycles:
  500 + 05/01/12H = 4/29
  750 + 05/02/11H = 4/25
1000 + 04/26/10H = 4/16
1500 + 05/19/08H = 5/06
2000 + 05/08/06H = 4/21
2500 + 05/12/04L = 4/21
3000 + 05/07/02H = 4/21
3500 + 05/24/00L = 4/28
4000 + 06/16/98L = 5/12
4500 + 06/06/96H = 4/25
8000 + 08/09/82L = 4/30



Also due around this time are the Bond Market Interest Rates that has a regular long term 93 week cycle that has been active since January 2000. The last 93 week Cycle major Low (and Bond High) was the 7/25/12 Low at 24.52, piercing below the double bottom at 25.10-25.19.  The next 93 wk cycle is due in the April 25 2014 week +/- 2 wks and is biased to be an Interest Rate major Low.

Thursday, April 10, 2014

The Trapdoor to Hell

http://www.safehaven.com/article/33427/the-trapdoor-to-hell

For the last 7 weeks, the markets has been stuck in a large 50 SP Trading range, with 1835-40 SPX as critical Make or Break Trapdoor to Hell support and 1885-95 SPX as key resistance. We have now broken below the 1835-40 SPX Trapdoor to Hell, which should cause a sharper decline once we close below it.

In my last post, I mentioned: "We have been in a sideways trading range the last month, which ever way it breaks determines the next major direction in the markets." I was looking for a 3/28-31 Low." http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2014/03/raj-t-march-2014-review-forecast.html

Actual: The expected 3/28-31 Low was the 3/27 Low at 1842.11 SPX (1), 1 TD earlier. The 3/28 geometric CIT was the 3/27 Low. 3/27L was also as the 24 Squared week cycle Low and a Time squared CIT.

Updated forecast made on 4/2: The current bias is the 4/4 geometric Change in Trend (CIT) should be a swing High. 

Actual: We made fresh All time Highs at the 4/4 High at 1897.28 SPX and saw a Key reversal lower that day (2)


Forecast made on 4/7: Due to the many CITs in the coming week, we should see lots of volatility. From the 4/4 CIT High, we should decline into the 4/8 geometric CIT Low. We should then see a brief rally into 4/9-10H at the 4/10 geometric CIT. The decline then resumes into 4/11-14 Lows at the 4/11-14 T&C Cluster.

Actual: From the 4/4 High, we declined into 4/8 Low (3), rally into 4/10 High (4), reversed and decline into today 4/10 (5).

Friday 4/11 is the next proprietary Solar CIT and Monday 4/14 is the next important Trading day Squared CIT from 3/06/09 Major Lows:

Time Squares in TD from 03/06/09 Major Low has produced major Highs and Lows.
3/6/09L - 25.85^2 TD = 10/27/11H
3/6/09L - 27.84^2 TD = 04/02/12H
3/6/09L - 29.83^2 TD = 09/14/12H
3/6/09L - 31.83^2 TD = 03/18/13L (minor)
3/6/09L - 33.83^2 TD = 09/23/13H -2 (minor)
3/6/09L - 35.83^2 TD = 04/14/14 Next!

What's Next: We should make an 4/11-14 swing Low. The decline below 1835-40 SPX should see a sharper decline, but we should make an 4/11-14 Time Cluster CIT swing Low.