Wednesday, December 26, 2007
So how did 2007 pan out for the Bulls and the Bears?
It was quite a volatile year, with many large swings up and down, Many crash calls this past year petered out to barely a 10% correction. overall the Bulls are on the winning side of the trade with the long term uptrend intact.
We started the year at 1418 SPX and are currently at 1492 SPX, another Up year in the Bull Market that started since 2003. It looks like a large Bull Flag or triangle, before yet another strong move higher in 2008.
Friday, December 21, 2007
"Enjoy your Life and be Happy.
Being happy is of the utmost importance.
Success in anything is through happiness.
More support of Nature comes from being happy.
Under all circumstances be happy, even if you have
to force it a bit to change longstanding habits.
Just think of any negativity that comes at you as
a raindrop falling in your Ocean of Bliss.
You may not always have an Ocean of Bliss, but
think that way anyway and it will help it come.
Doubting is not Blissful and does not create Happiness.
Be happy, healthy and let all that love flow through your heart"
Maharishi January 1987
"From Bliss, indeed all these beings originate;
Having been born, they are sustained by Bliss;
They move towards and merge in Bliss."
Happy Blissful Holidays to you and yours.
The 12/18/07 Time Cluster
1. I had a triple CIT due 12/14-17+/-1, the 12/18 Low was 1 day off and fits this CIT as it is in the sphere of Influence (SOI).
2. Then we had the unusual cluster of Astro CITs on 12/18-19:
12/18, we had Mercury conjunct the Galactic Centre (=GC, discovery M. Zimmel), Venus Trine Uranus and 12/19 Sun conjunct GC, Saturn Retrograde and a double proprietary Astro CIT due 12/17 and 12/19.
3. The 2.5/5 week Low was overdue to bottom and made its Low on 12/18.
We will see higher Lows and higher Highs, even with the upcoming 20 week Cycle Lows due Late December/early January 08. We should see a strong rally once the 20 week Cycle Lows are in.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
We invite you for the open House at our Time and Cycles Yahoo Group for 1 week through 12/12/07.
Come and join the Fun and take a sneak peek and see what we are up to.
The 11/26 Lows (see previous posts) remains the Lows sofar.
Intraday today 12/5: I had a CIT Time and Key 1.618 Price extension meet at 1489 DEC SP, gives a 90% chance of a Major Reversal to the downside.
Also watch 2.34-40 pm CIT.
Short term Cycles: 12/5 High, 12/6@ Close Low.
Friday, November 30, 2007
Here comes Santa Clause..
The Lows are in on 11/26/07 completing the large C wave down and it is looking more and more very bullish, with an impulsive move up from 11/26 lows, I don't see any lower Lows out there. We also have a wedge Break, which is very bullish.
We are headed to 1490 very fast today with EOM window dressing and people wanting to enjoy the Santa Clause Rally to usher in a Happy Xmas atmosphere next month and what might even shock and awe the Bears is when we break through that old Trapdoor to Hell @1490 SPX and make new All Time Highs.
Shorter Term, There are 3 "longer term" CITs due today, 11/30, on the hourly they are clustering in the 1st couple of hours in the morning, on the 5minute chart they are spread out during the day, a short term High is likely today.
Note: Many people have signed up in the last couple of days to join the Time and Cycles (T&C) Yahoo group. http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/timeandcycles/
T&C is a paid site and we do need a valid email (not hidden) from you. This may be the reason you have not heard back from us.
Tuesday, November 27, 2007
Today should be Gap and Go Day and a close near it's highs.
Tomorrow also. I am expecting 2,3 strong Up days.
The 11/26L came as mentioned in private email and on the yahoo group:
Next is 11/29H, according to my Series of Cycles
Then another decline into the 1st week of December.
Thursday, November 22, 2007
There are several versions of the 4 year cycle, but the simple view (kiss) is seen on the longer term monthly SPX chart (click to enlarge). The 4 year/48 Mo Cycle is as follows: 8/82L - 9/86L, 10/90L, 12/94L, 10/98L, 10/02L and 6/14/06 Low @ 1219.29 SPX.
From the 6/14/06 Major Low, we made an bullish move to the 7/16/07 High, which started a large ABC correction down.
The large ABC down Update (Please refer to the 11/9/07 post & chart)
The market is in a devastating C wave decline and is gripping everyone with lots of Fear.
Below is a summary of my take on it:
1. We are in a Large ABC down (see my 11/9 post for the chart). The market is retesting the 8/16/07 Lows 1370-1416 SPX (8/16 H/L large intraday range ) in a C wave decline of a n ABC down (see chart) , where A wave = 8/16 Lows, B wave = 10/11 Highs and C wave is currently in progress. The channel on the chart is targeting the 1410 SPX area.
2. Once this C wave ends, we should see a strong rally into Jan-Feb 08 to retest the recent Highs.
3.There is Major support at 1405-1410 SPX Daily and weekly SPX Channel, that should be the initial target for the current C wave decline, although technically we can retest the lower end of the 8/16 Low @ 1370 SPX.
4. 1411 SPX is also the last Gap to get filled on the downside.
5.The long term uptrend channel from 3/12/03L, currently at 1405-1410 SPX should not be violated on a weekly basis or we will see much lower prices.
7. Shorter term Cycles suggests the current C wave decline completes by the 1st week of Dec 07.
8. We could also be in a larger ABC, where the 1st week of Dec Low is only an A wave Low, to be followed by a B wave rally into Jan/Feb 08 High and a final C wave decline into April 08 Lows.
Monday, November 19, 2007
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
The 11/12/07 Low has alot going for it. (This info is shared from the subs updates)
1. The inverted main series had a 11/1(10/31H) and a potential 11/12 Low
2. The 20-22 TD Cycle was due 11/12
3. Ve Latitude 4.58 + 8/16/07L = 11/9 (+1 TD= 11/12), Last Venus Latitude was 10/22 Low.
4. Me Helio Latitude 88 CD + 8/16/07L = 11/12/07 Low
5. Double hourly CIT due Close 11/12 - Open 11/13, arrived on 11/12@Close Low
6. 11/12 is within the SOI (Sphere of influence) of Roy's SC due 11/15 (F20 3/22/01 Low)
7. 11/12 is within 1 TD from the 11/9/07 Mahalaksmi Major historic Lunar Anniversary Lows. ie 11/9/07L = 10/29/29L = 10/20/87L = 10/28/97L = same Lunar Date = same Mahalaksmi, Goddess of wealth Day.
8. The 56 hour (8TD) Cycle was due 11/12/07
9. The 2.5 week cycle from the 10/22-24 Low (14-16 TD), bottomed on 11/12 Low.
10. Our T&C Group had a Major timing Cluster due anytime this OE week, centered on 11/14.
11. ITD Delta Low was due 11/14 +/-
12. Markets were extremely oversold at historic levels, there were also signs of selling exhaustion.
12. There was finally some Big fund buying on 11/13, which is a statistically bullish sign for the next few days, weeks and months.
11. This is a normal retest of the 8/16/07 4.5 Year Cycle Low, creating a double bottom with 8/16/07 Low
12. We broke above the downtrend channel since the 10/31 High and we are having follow through today, which is bullish.
Major Resistance lies at the 1490-92 SPX area and if broken confirms the decline to be a corrective ABC down and also the new bullish trend. I still have 11/15 and 11/19 daily CITs to watch closely. A retest of the 11/12 Lows is likely.
The 11/12 Low could have been the Low and ANY move above 1492 SPX confirms the Lows are in.
Friday, November 9, 2007
The decline is looking impulsive, which means we are in a wave 4 bounce now, completing perhaps in the next couple of days.
Overal, we are in a final ABC wave down, where 8/16 Low = A wave, 10/11 High = B wave and we are now in a C wave to retest the 8/16 lows.
If we can rally above the downtrend Channel and wave (1) low, currently at 1490 SPX, which is now Key resistance to overcome, then we had a ZigZag (535) down and we are headed to new Highs afterwards.
Monday, November 5, 2007
Friday, November 2, 2007
The 10/31-11/1 CIT was a direct hit (see previous post) with a 10/31 High with a 60+ SP decline right afterwards.
The hourly SPX (click on chart to enlarge) has 1st support at the 10/22-24 lows @1489.56 SPX, after that it has key fork support at the 1480 SPX area, right at the Top of wave 1 Support @ 1479.40 SPX, where also the 200 DMA@1479.50 SPX is.
Many on our Time and Cycles Yahoo group (http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/TimeandCycles/) correctly called for this 10/31 High.
We are approaching my next daily CIT, due on 11/6 +/-1, ideally a LOW @ 1480-95 SPX which is Key support area. We should see new All Time Highs after this Low.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
10/21 was the end of the 9 days of Mother Divine, which is often a CIT (Change in Trend), just like the start of the 9 days was on 10/12 gave an 10/11H CIT.
This past weekend was also an important Lunar CIT and 10/22 was the Midpoint of Mercury Retrograde and Mercury Direct. 10/22 was also an important Astro CIT.
Finally, we had a 47 TD Cycle Low (Click on chart to enlarge) due today, which is probably the illusive 10 week Cycle Low.
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
The next 56 hourly Cycle ( click on chart to enlarge) and the Apex of the broken wedge is also due 10/19@ Open. 10/19 is also the 20 year Anniversary of the 10/19/87 Crash. This should be an important daily CIT to watch.
Monday, October 15, 2007
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
I also had a Timing Cluster today, 10/9/07:
Sun 060 Jupiter 10/09/2007 04:04
Venus 165 Uranus 10/09/2007 01:28
Ju sq Ur (bullish)
Ian's Main Cycle short term High
Ian’s TRIPLE daily CIT
Ian's 56 hour Cycle
The Dec SP 7/18/07 High was 1578.80, Today's High is sofar 1577.40, should cause a brief pullback.
There is a 9.35 CIT tomorrow right at the Open, could be the short term high .
Friday, October 5, 2007
We are having a Gap and Go Day on the bullish NFP report, especially if we pullback into a 10.55 am CIT Low, we should close on our highs and retest the ATH today.
We are currently right at Trend line Resistance now (see chart). The 128 hourly (corrected from 130, 128=2 * 64 hours = 2 * 8 squared) Cycle arrived on 10/3/07 as a Low. Ideally we should now rally into 10/9@open Highs.
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Markets are flat lining, in a narrow directionless trading, awaiting NFP tomorrow, still CITs managed some intraday swings:
The 9.55 CIT was a 10 am Low, rallied 6 SP's into 11H.
The 10.50-11.10* was a 11.00 Low (10.50 was mailed to subs, next to the 11.10), decline 4 SP's
Remaining CITs for today:
3.35 pm CIT
Either 10/4 or 10/5@1st hour should be a Low. The 130 hourly Cycle could be off by a couple of hours and some cycles suggests a 10/5L.
We should then rally into 10/9@Open.
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
The hourly CIT (Change in Trend, High or Low) at the close yesterday 10/2 was the High, the 16 and 20 TD Cycles were also due 10/2/07.
We should now make a brief decline into 10/4 Low, where the 130 hourly Cycle CIT (click on chart to enlarge) is due @ 12.45-1.50 pm, but could arrive as early as the 11.10 am or as late as 2.20 pm CIT as the LOD (sent all this information to clients)
Intraday CITs today (All Eastern):
9.35 CIT was a 9.40H
10.10CIT was a 10.10L
11.45 CIT was a 11.50H
We should now make a 4.15 CIT High(or Low).
Tomorrow 10/ 4 also has 9.40, 9.55 , 11.10* and 2.20 pm CITs.
I am expecting a LOW tomorrow 10/4, ideally at 11.10 am or 2.20 pm CIT and a rally into 10/9 @1st hour, where I have the next Time Cluster.
Monday, October 1, 2007
This makes me less bearish, especially how OCTOBER has barely arrived and Bears are growling all over the place.
A brief decline into 10/4 and 10/9 Lows are expected before the next rally starts. 10/9/07 is the next Major CIT in my stuff.
Thursday, September 27, 2007
9/28/07 should be the next swing High.
This should be the completion of a 123 or ABC Up. We should expect a stronger decline after this High as at least a 4th wave lower should develop.
The daily SPX shows the anemic Volume on this rally and cumulative breadth also stinks, it is a growing concern.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Thursday 9/27@Open is my next 56 hour Cycle@Open, the last one on 9/17 was a Low (see chart) The Low should arrive in the last hour of 9/26/07.
In my daily email to subs I had 9/19 as the next swing High for a decline into 9/25-26 Lows.
The Open today 9/25, could be a short term Low or even the Low of the day, but do watch my next intraday CIT (Change in Trend) due at 1.45-2.10 pm for another Low. We could finish way off the Lows today and even positive.
Look for 9/25-26 Lows as the next short term buying opportunity
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
I have found other interesting Cycles confirming the same and it has some exciting predictions after this Oktober High is in, but let's see first if it continues to unfold.
In any case, as expected and as posted on my group (http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/TimeandCycles) many times in the past, the trend has been UP since the 8/16/07 predicted Low.
"Only the tree, whose fruit is ripe, bows down the deepest"
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Don't fight the FED! This is one of two of Marty Zweig's sacred rules.
This is fundamentally bullish for the markets. It suggests the FED is willing to do what it takes to get the Economy and RE markets on its feet. Make no mistake about this!
From the previous update:
"If the markets react positively and rallies to above 1504 SPX, then we should see a shallow pullback into 9/20 Lows to be followed by a strong rally to retest the Highs in the weeks afterwards."
Today may be a short term High with a pullback likely for a few days into 9/20L, but you will see a strong rally in the weeks ahead afterwards.
Sofar we're rallying into today, suggesting a High May be forming.
How the markets reacts to the FED will determine the direction of the next few days and even months.
If the markets react positively and rallies to above 1504 SPX, then we should see a shallow pullback into 9/20 Lows to be followed by a strong rally to retest the Highs in the weeks afterwards.
If the market reacts negatively, we should see a stronger pullback into 9/20 Lows, here we need to see how far down the markets can penetrate to determine how much longer we will take to see a retest of the highs. The maximum retrace is either 1465 - 1445 SPX.
The Fed futures suggests a 100% odds of a 1/4 point cut at 2.15 pm.
The 11.40-12.45 Hourly double CIT is important to watch and especially how the markets reacts towards the FED's expected 1/4 discount rate cut.
Monday, September 17, 2007
The Potential Low of the Day came in at 12.10 pm. I had a 12.25 CIT (Change in Trend) as the potential HOD or LOD and it was a secondary LOW.
The next daily/hourly CIT to watch is tomorrow at 11.35 am to Noon Time, bias is this will be the last High before the sell off into 9/20 next daily CIT.
Friday, September 14, 2007
They are 2 different timing methods suggesting 9/17-18 CIT (Change in Trend).
The 56 hour Cycle is due 9/17@1st hour.
The other method is saying 9/18 between 11- Noon Time.
It doesn't matter much as 9/18 is a narrowly traded FED Day, so 9/17-18 High.
One more Push Up likely in the 1st or 2nd hour Monday 9/17 should do it, then be prepared to buy the Rumor and SELL the FED, until the next CIT of course.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Markets have reversed down as expected, notice that the markets made a marginal new High to fill the 1489.50 Gap eversince the 11.35 High @ 1488 and quickly reversed down.
As mentioned before 9/13 could be the High, decline into 9/14 intraday, then one more rally into 9/17 double or lower High. We should then sell-off into OE week.
Good Luck and Trade well.
I have today, 9/13/07 as the next daily CIT with the same timing technique that pinpointed the 9/4/07 High. I also have the 56 hour Cycle due 9/17/07@1st hour, the last one was a 9/4 High. These are based on 2 different timing techniques.
Watch the 11.45 and 2.40 pm (always Eastern) today as the potential HIGH of the Day and selloff into tomorrow morning.
9/17@ 1st hour will still be a High, but most likely a double or lower Top with today's High. After this, OE week should be down.
I have taken a 16 SP point (1472-1488) profit, although I could be early at the 11.45 High from yesterday's 4pm buy (see yesterday's post).
If we take out the 1488 SEP, I will consider going long again as we should then rally to the 2.40 pm CIT.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
The secondary Low due 9/12-13 has not manifested itself yet and we are right at key Resistance at 1478 SPX.
I had a 2.20 CIT today, which was important and sofar we had a 2.15 HOD (High of the day), let's see if it holds. I plan to buy the 4pm CIT, if a Low.
Today or early tomorrow is the Time to buy for a rally into atleast the 56 hour CIT High due on 9/17@Open.
I'll look closely at all the cycles in the weekend to see what OE week will look like.
The 56 hour Cycle, which I first discovered a couple of months ago, is next due Monday 9/17/07@1st hour. Notice the last 56 hour cycle pinpointed the last high on 9/4 @close perfectly as well as the last Major High on 7/19@close. Why it exists I am not sure, but what is apparent is that it continues to work.
On the chart I have shown the potential bullish count. The 5 black horizontal Lines are the Gaps created on the chart, the last 4 gaps were created in the last 2 weeks alone, since the 8/28 Lunar Eclipse Low.
As you can see, there is Major resistance at the 1478 SPX area, which is right at the Gap above current prices, the Fork Resistance Line and the Key horizontal Gann Trendline. Any sustainable rally will have to take that 1478 SPX area out first.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Actual Times: 11.40 LOD, 12.55L and 3.25 pm High of the day. The V day manifested as expected and both the LOD and HOD came at exact CITs.
Key Times to watch for 9/11/07:
1. 12.20 pm for the HOD or LOD
2. 2.00 pm for the LOD
We currently have a Gap and Go patriotic rally underway, with Lows right at the Open. After the 2pm expected Lows, we should rally into the last hour. Any move above 1470 Sep SP will be bullish and suggests the Lows came in yesterday and 9/12-13 will be only a retest Low. Any rally today should be retraced tomorrow.
The last 4 gaps were made in the last 2 weeks, in a very erratic Market behavior since the 8/28 LE through the 9/11 SE.
The 9/12-13 Low should be a good time to get long for a strong rally into 9/18-19 next daily CIT.
Friday, September 7, 2007
Daily Cycles for Swingtraders: 9/4-6 High, 9/13 Low, 9/20H
Solar Price* Support/Resistance (SR) 9/07/07: 1382, 1403, 1424, 1447, 1470, 1487, 1504, 1519.50 , 1535 SEP SP500
Intraday Change in Trend (CIT) Times 9/07/07: 9 .35, 10.35*, 11.10, 12.30, 2.40, hourly close.
The market is awaiting the Unemployment report, so not much has changed from yesterday's pattern. The 30 min chart shows how the market has been hanging on a thread on the blue uptrendline. Right below is the KEY (Red) Gann TL Support at 1463-64 SPX that needs to be broken before any serious decline can take place.
The breakdown, imho, if not tomorrow, should take place no later than Monday 9/10 and last through 9/13, my next daily CIT. The News media will generate lots of FEAR around 9/11 6th year anniversary with a Bin Laden tape.
CNN has this article:
Imho, Someone wants this market cheaper, so that they can buy it at a lower price. This is the reason you can expect prices to be lower into 9/13/07. The hourly SPX (see chart) suggests we may have a 3 Gap play once 1464 SPX is taken out.
1. 1464 SPX Red Gann TL and Fork Support
2. 8/31 Gap @ 1457.64 SPX/ 1461.70 SEP SP and 1459 SPX 200 DMA 3. 8/29 Gap @ 1432.36 SPX / 1438.50 Sep SP 8/29 Gap
4. 1425-30 SPX = previous wave 4 and 50% Retrace is 1429.45 Sep SP
5. 8/17 Gap @ 1411 SPX/ 1425 SEP SP and 62% retrace
Key SPX/SEP SP Resistance areas:
1. 9/5 Gap @ 1489.50 SPX, which close to the 50 DMA @ 1488 SPX
2. 70.7%R=1502 SPX and 1504 SPX is 8/8 Swing High.
3. 78.6 %R = 1516 SPX
These Price Support / Resistance (SR) areas combined with the intra day CITs gives a high 90% probability turns. Also watch the Solar Prices, especially 1447, 1470, 1487 Sep SP as Key Support/Resistance and floor trader's price SR.
The 5min chart shows a breakout is due soon and an Apex CIT at 10.35 am
Good Luck and Trade well.
Reminder: Trade the CITs and not the biases. Speculative paths and biases can and do change depending on the actual Market unfoldment. If we rally into a CIT, it's a High and if we decline into a CIT, it's a Low, especially at Key Support and Resistance areas. CIT's work 70-80% of the time and they don't work well in SD (Strong Down) or SU days.
Trading in Stocks, ETF, Options and Futures involves risks. The contents of this email is for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as an investment advice or strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The content may not be copied or reproduced.
Important Daytrading Notes to review carefully:
Glossary of Intraday terms:
CIT = Change in Trend, HOD/LOD = High of Day/Low of Day, MOB = Make or Break, OE = Option Expiration Day, SP Cycle = Symmetry Point/Mirror Image Cycle, SU/SD = Strong Up/Strong Down, SR = Support/Resistance, TD = Trading Days, TL = Trendline, WBOE = Wednesday before Option Expiration Day, 50/200 DMA = 50/200 Day Moving Average, Fund Managers watch this closely.
Trading the CITs:
1. CIT (= Change in Trend) Times could be either Highs or Lows. If the markets are rallying into the CIT Time frame, it will be a High.
If the markets are declining into the CIT Time Frame, it will be a Low.
1. Intraday Time CIT's are most of the times exact or off by +/- 5, seldom +/-10 minutes to remain valid.
2. CIT's don't work well when manipulation is more likely, like in thin markets, eg before holidays (last week) or in OE week or when a FED intervention is obvious and even announced.
3. Major Price Support and Resistance (SR) also causes CIT's, that's the reason why when Price CIT and Time CITs meet, the probability increases to 90% for a CIT to occur.4. CIT's don't have to occur at extreme Highs or Lows, they could occur in an uptrend.
5. Not all CITs work, naturally we expect all of them to work, especially if they have worked incredibly well in the past. They work 70-80% of the time, 20% of them don't, especially when the markets go SU or SD. Be patient, take a position, only if a CIT is clear for you.
6. Always keep a 3 point stop under the CIT time, if going Long or a 3 point stop above, if going short. That's the point where the CIT should be wrong in general. If you're in 3-5 SP point profit, move your stop to Break Even (BE).
7. Trade the CITs, not the biases or opinions, etc., just watch what the market is actually doing at the CIT.
8. Be patient, you don't have to trade all CITs, overtime, there will be many more good CITs to trade.
9. The trend is your friend, one possible strategy in daytrading is to only trade with the trend, ie
When the general trend is UP, look to trade those CITs that are Lows. This is best done in Strong Up trending Markets.
When the general trend is DOWN, look to trade those CITs that are Highs. This is best done in strong down trending Markets.
10. It's best to observe first how the CITs work before using them, so you get a feel for them. It's best to use them as an additional tool in your arsenal of intraday tools in your toolbox. They should not be used as a stand alone tool, but rather in conjunction with your own intraday buy and sell signals.
It is important to be aware that Floor traders have a regularly calculated set of SR, which you can calculate yourself here:
*Solar Prices are calculated Price Support and Resistances (S/R) using a proprietary technique. When the Markets reach a Solar S/R Price or one of the floor-trader's S/R at the same time as an Intraday CIT, the probability increases up to 90% that a Turn is likely.