Thursday, April 30, 2015

Raj Time and cycle Review and Forecast 4/30/15

From my 3/27 last public blog post”We should make a 3/27 Low +/-1 Trading Day at the 3/27 Geometric CIT and start a relative sharp rally”

Actual: The 3/27 Geo CIT was the 3/26 Low, which remains the Low to date.

Since that 3/26 Low, the markets have been in a choppy, sideways to up (Red) channel, without a clear directional trend, frustrating Bulls and Bears alike.

There is a 2/20/15 Symmetry (mirror Image) Cycle that has been in the markets:

  1. 02/02L =  03/11L
  2. 01/22H = 03/20H
  3. 01/14L = 04/01L
  4. 12/26H = 04/15H
  5. 12/16L = 04/27H
  6. 12/05H = 05/05H is next!

The proprietary Solar and Geometric Time CITs (Change in Trend, is High or Low) in the last 4 weeks (Cyan vertical lines on chart) continue to outperform, all +/-1 Day:

  1. 3/27 Geometric CIT was the 3/26 Low
  2. 4/01 Solar CIT was the 4/1 Low
  3. 4/06 Geometric CIT was the 4/6 Low
  4. 4/11 weekend Solar CIT and 4/13-15 triple Geometric CIT was the 4/13-15 High
  5. 4/21 Solar CIT was the 4/22 Low
  6. 4/24 Geometric CIT was Monday 4/27 High, 1 day later.
  7. 5/1 Solar CIT is the 4/30 Low so far

From the 4/25 Raj T&C weekend Email“We have rallied into Friday 4/24 Geometric and 4/24 SP Cycle CIT suggesting an 4/24-27 High  forming. We are overbought, suggesting a pullback is due soon, most likely into the 5/1 Solar CIT Low and 156 TD Cycle due 5/1.
Actual: We made a Monday 4/27 High in the 1st hour and right at pink channel resistance and reversed lower into Thursday 4/30 Low so far.

What’s next?The red channel break opens the door for lower prices, especially if we decline below the last 4/17 swing Low. We are lower into the 5/1-5 cluster CIT Low at the 5/1 Solar CIT and 156 TD Cycle due 5/1 and 2 TD later at the 5/5 double Geometric and 2/20 Symmetry Cycle CIT on 5/5.

Forecast: Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 4/30/15: 9.35, 11.25, 4.10 pm CIT Eastern

Actual: 9.40 High of day (HOD), 11.35 High, 4.05 High

Forecast: Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines (9.40L), 10.30H, 12.30L, 1.30H, 3.30L

Actual: 9.40HOD, 10.25L, 11.35H, 12.55L, 1.35H, 3.15LOD

Thursday sees a High am to Low pm day, with a possible 9.40 Low at the 9.35 CIT, rally to a 10.30 High at the 11.25 CIT, decline to a 12.30 Low+/-30. rally to a 1.30 High+/-30, decline to a 3.30 Low at the 4.10 CIT

Result: The intraday cycle saw a High am to Low pm day, with a 9.40 1st hour HIgh of day and a last hour 3.15 Low of Day.

5/4 Noon UpdateThe 5/1 Solar CIT was the 4/30 Low, which was the 10 TD Hurst Low, being 9 TD from the 4/17 Low and if we rally into the 5/5 double Geometric CIT, it will be a swing High.