Thursday, October 3, 2013

We are close to a Major Low

From my last 9/17 public blog post:”We should rally into a 9/18 Solar CIT High+/-1 and see a decline into the next Time and Cycle cluster Low”

Two forecasts were made in the last few weeks:

Forecast 1: From the 9/18 Daily Email: “We are extremely overbought and we should see a solid 30-50 SP pullback into the 9/24 T&C Cluster CIT Low.”

Actual: The 9/18 Solar time CIT (Change in Trend) was the 9/19 High near the open (Point “A” on the chart below) Swing traders were told to short and keep the stop at the 9/19 High, we then declined 42.25 SP’s into 9/25 Lows (Point “B” on the chart). Here were the various reasons for the 9/19H and 9/25L:

1. The 9/18 Solar CIT was the 9/19 High near the Open.
2. There was a 9/23 Long term CIT, which was the 9/19H, 2 TD earlier.
3. The 472-75 CD Cycle was the 9/19/13H:
4. The 186 TD Cycle arrived at the 9/19H as well.
5. The 9/24 geometric Time CIT was the 9/25 Low.

Forecast 2: From the 9/27 Daily Email: “There is one Bear Cycle that suggests a 9/26 High, then sharply lower into 10/4-7 Lows. The markets are getting spooked by another Government shutdown by 10/1/13 and could see a sharper sell-off. The ideal target for this decline is the Make or Break 11/16/12L – 6/24/13L Uptrend channel at 1665 SPX or the 1657 SPX H&S Target”

From the 9/28-30 Weekend Email: “There is an 10/1-2 Time CIT, even though the Bear cycle above says nothing about the 10/1-2 Time CIT date, the bias is we make a 9/30 lower Low and see a sharp rally into an 10/1-2 High, before we turn south once again into 10/4-7 Lows. The SP Cycle has an 10/1 CIT. The 23 TD cycle is next due on 10/1. There is a 10/1 geometric and 10/2 Solar CIT”

Actual: The markets saw the 9/26 High at 1703.85 SPX (Point “C” on chart above), which was the 9/25 Solar time CIT High and where subscribers went short. We saw a sharp 29 SP decline into the 9/30 Low (Point “D”), saw a brief sharp 22 SP rally into 10/1 High at the close (Point “E”). The SP Cycle 10/1 CIT, The 23 TD cycle on 10/1, the 10/1 geometric and the 10/2 Solar CIT were all the 10/1 High. We then reversed lower into today, declining 30+ SP’s from the 9/26H so far. Despite the shutdown news driven market, the Bear cycle that saw the 9/26 High and then sharp decline into 10/5 Lows has been accurate so far and highly profitable for our swing traders who went short at the 9/26 Highs.

What’s next?: We should continue to decline and make an 10/4-7 major Low. I don’t have any high quality Time CITs supporting this Cycle CIT Low date, but the next Solar Time CIT on 10/9 should be another Low. In general, it is the Bulls turn to stampede higher into my next proprietary Time and Cycle cluster CIT. 

This is my last public post for quite some time as the coming weeks should be a wonder to behold.