Friday, April 27, 2012

The Master Cycle is active again

In the last post, I was looking for an 4/20-23 Low:
"This 4/20-23 Cycle Low is further supported by today's 4/20 Solar CIT and Monday's 4/23 geometric CIT."

We saw an actual 4/23 Low and have surged 46+ SP's into yesterday's Highs.

What's next? The Master Cycle (MC) is active again, after being dormant for some time.

The MC2 (red lines in hourly chart) predicted the 4/2H, 4/10L, 4/17H, 4/23L

Short term, we should see a High no later than today and see a sharp brief pullback, before heading higher afterwards. 

If we do rally today, then the 10.35-11.40 hourly CIT (Cyan vertical lines) Today could well be the High of the day, we'll have to see as the intraday cycle suggests a 1st hour High and a normal bias to be higher.

Generally we should see higher highs (above the 4/2 High at 1422) in the coming rally phase, with some brief short sharp pullbacks along the way. 

Once the rally is complete we will see the sharpest decline of the year take place, be prepared.

Friday, April 20, 2012

The 139 Cycle Low, the next Solar CIT and the Gold Markets

In my last post, I mentioned 4/10 Solar CIT (Change in Trend) Low.

From that 4/10 Low, the T&C prediction in my daily Email was for "lots of volatility, but the Time & Cycle bias remains: 4/9-10 Low, 4/12 High, 4/16 Low, 4/17 High, 4/20 Low"

Result: We saw a volatile week, with an actual 4/10L, 4/12H, 4/16L and 4/17H and we are now declining into 4/20-23 Lows.

Here is an excerpt from last week's email, predicting a 4/20-23 major swing Low:

"The reliable 139 TD Cycle of Lows: 2/5/10 Low – 139TD – 8/27/10 Low – 139 TD – 3/16/11 Low -140- 10/4/11L -139- 4/20-23 Low.

The 139 Cycle suggested an 4/2 High, which we saw and a general decline into 4/20 Solar CIT Lows. There is a 188 TD Cycle (green) due in early May 2012.

The 2X1 Trendline from the 8/9/11 Lows (above TL) has been major resistance in this rally. There is also bearish RSI divergence since the 1st week of February.

A closer look at the 139 cycle of Lows:

1. 1/19/10 High into 2/05/10 Lows was 105.95 SP decline and a 38% retrace in 17 CD.

2. 8/09/10 High into 8/27/10 Lows was 89.54 SP decline in 18 CD (CD =
Calendar Days).
3. 2/18/11 & 3/1/11 High into 3/16/11 Lows was 95.02 SP decline in 26 and 15 CD.
4. 9/16/11 High into 10/04/11 Low was 145.62 SP decline in 18 CD.

The average CD decline from the Highs to the Lows was 17-18 CD, so calculating from the 4/20/12 Low, it suggested an 4/2-3 High, which we saw an 18 CD decline into 4/20 Low.

The next Solar CIT (Change in Trend)
This 4/20-23 Cycle Low is further supported by today's 4/20 Solar CIT and Monday's 4/23 geometric CIT.

Note: Globex is +6.00 at the moment, but this is OE day and there is a 9.45 CIT, that suggests a 9.45 High. The intraday cycle also suggests a 1st hour High. Daily cycles above suggests a lower low today.

The Stockmarkets are closely related to Gold, so let's take a brief look at Gold.

The monthly Gold (pit) (click on chart to enlarge) is in a steep up channel since November 2008 Major Lows, which is the 3rd steepest Trendline. We are hovering and closed right at critical up channel support at the 1640 area. Any solid break below this long term Up channel support is bearish. The monthly Gold has 2 monthly CITs to watch: July 2012 and April 2013.

The weekly Gold has a 91 week cycle that is next due in June 2013. First support on any channel break is at the green TL support around 1550.

The daily Gold is hanging on a thread as it has been creeping along its long term up channel support in a short term green down channel. We are right at Make or Break support levels and would need to rally soon or risk further downside acceleration.
The daily Gold CITs are: 4/25, 5/4, 5/11, 7/12

Thursday, April 12, 2012

Another Solar CIT and Cycle Low

In these volatile markets it is nice to find the timing Solar CITs (Change in Trend) still working.

Solar CITs are 84-90% accurate and the accuracy increase if the cycles align with them.

The last one was the 4/2 Solar CIT High ( and we saw a 65 SP decline into the most recent  4/10 Solar CIT Low, which was another Bulls-eye hit.

The cycles were also looking for a 4/2 High and a decline into the 4/10 Solar CIT supported Low.

The next Solar CIT should be an important one to watch as cycles suggests a Major turning point on that date.

Monday, April 9, 2012

Trend confirmed lower and Intraday Times and Cycles 4/09

The 3/31 Solar CIT  was looking for an 4/2 High and we got that. We finally saw the decline below 1386.87 SPX confirming the bearish Cycles from the expected 4/2 High. 

Intraday 5 min Mar SP CIT (Change in Trend) Times 4/09/12: 10.00, 11.55, 12.50, 1.35, 155** pm Eastern

Actual: 9.55 Low

Today is a High am  to Low pm day or Inverse.

Thursday, April 5, 2012

Intraday Times and Cycles

For the Stockmarket and SP 500: Thursday’s bias is a Low am to High pm (or Inverse) with a 10.00-30 Cycle Low at either the 9.50-10.00 CIT or the 10.45 CIT, we then rally to a 12.45 Cycle High+/-30, perhaps as early as the 11.20 CIT, decline to a 1.40 Cycle Low, rally to a 3.00-3.30 High.

Intraday 5 min Mar SP CIT (Change in Trend) Times 4/05/12: 9.50, 10.00, 10.45, 11.20 pm Eastern

Intraday Cycle are the Cyan lines: 10.00-30 Low, 12.45 High, 1.40L, 3.00-30H

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

The 3/31 weekend Solar CIT was the Monday 4/2 major High of the week

From my last post, the 4/2-5 Time and cycle cluster:

"The time cluster is quite large and covers the entire week, which is not of practical use for trading purposes imho, so how can we pinpoint the exact date for the High or Low to occur?

I use Time & Cycle CIT Order of importance: 
1. Solar CITs (84-90% accuracy), then 
2. Geometric CIT (70-80% accuracy)
3. then other CITs, like squares, Astros, etc. 

The 3/31 (Saturday) Solar CIT is the most important turning point, which should be either Friday 3/30, but more likely Monday 4/2 CIT."

The priority always goes to the Solar CITs (Change in Trend) first, other CIts are secondary to it.
The 3/31 weekend Solar CIT was the Monday 4/2 major High of the week, as posted on the blog updates as we rallied into 4/2 High and reversed lower. The next  Solar CIT and geometric CIT should also be a High.

The 70 TD on the chart was the 4/2 High. If we close decisively below wedge support, it will cause a sharper decline into the next cycle Low.