Thursday, September 27, 2007
9/28/07 should be the next swing High.
This should be the completion of a 123 or ABC Up. We should expect a stronger decline after this High as at least a 4th wave lower should develop.
The daily SPX shows the anemic Volume on this rally and cumulative breadth also stinks, it is a growing concern.
Tuesday, September 25, 2007
Thursday 9/27@Open is my next 56 hour Cycle@Open, the last one on 9/17 was a Low (see chart) The Low should arrive in the last hour of 9/26/07.
In my daily email to subs I had 9/19 as the next swing High for a decline into 9/25-26 Lows.
The Open today 9/25, could be a short term Low or even the Low of the day, but do watch my next intraday CIT (Change in Trend) due at 1.45-2.10 pm for another Low. We could finish way off the Lows today and even positive.
Look for 9/25-26 Lows as the next short term buying opportunity
Wednesday, September 19, 2007
I have found other interesting Cycles confirming the same and it has some exciting predictions after this Oktober High is in, but let's see first if it continues to unfold.
In any case, as expected and as posted on my group (http://finance.groups.yahoo.com/group/TimeandCycles) many times in the past, the trend has been UP since the 8/16/07 predicted Low.
"Only the tree, whose fruit is ripe, bows down the deepest"
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Don't fight the FED! This is one of two of Marty Zweig's sacred rules.
This is fundamentally bullish for the markets. It suggests the FED is willing to do what it takes to get the Economy and RE markets on its feet. Make no mistake about this!
From the previous update:
"If the markets react positively and rallies to above 1504 SPX, then we should see a shallow pullback into 9/20 Lows to be followed by a strong rally to retest the Highs in the weeks afterwards."
Today may be a short term High with a pullback likely for a few days into 9/20L, but you will see a strong rally in the weeks ahead afterwards.
Sofar we're rallying into today, suggesting a High May be forming.
How the markets reacts to the FED will determine the direction of the next few days and even months.
If the markets react positively and rallies to above 1504 SPX, then we should see a shallow pullback into 9/20 Lows to be followed by a strong rally to retest the Highs in the weeks afterwards.
If the market reacts negatively, we should see a stronger pullback into 9/20 Lows, here we need to see how far down the markets can penetrate to determine how much longer we will take to see a retest of the highs. The maximum retrace is either 1465 - 1445 SPX.
The Fed futures suggests a 100% odds of a 1/4 point cut at 2.15 pm.
The 11.40-12.45 Hourly double CIT is important to watch and especially how the markets reacts towards the FED's expected 1/4 discount rate cut.
Monday, September 17, 2007
The Potential Low of the Day came in at 12.10 pm. I had a 12.25 CIT (Change in Trend) as the potential HOD or LOD and it was a secondary LOW.
The next daily/hourly CIT to watch is tomorrow at 11.35 am to Noon Time, bias is this will be the last High before the sell off into 9/20 next daily CIT.
Friday, September 14, 2007
They are 2 different timing methods suggesting 9/17-18 CIT (Change in Trend).
The 56 hour Cycle is due 9/17@1st hour.
The other method is saying 9/18 between 11- Noon Time.
It doesn't matter much as 9/18 is a narrowly traded FED Day, so 9/17-18 High.
One more Push Up likely in the 1st or 2nd hour Monday 9/17 should do it, then be prepared to buy the Rumor and SELL the FED, until the next CIT of course.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
Markets have reversed down as expected, notice that the markets made a marginal new High to fill the 1489.50 Gap eversince the 11.35 High @ 1488 and quickly reversed down.
As mentioned before 9/13 could be the High, decline into 9/14 intraday, then one more rally into 9/17 double or lower High. We should then sell-off into OE week.
Good Luck and Trade well.
I have today, 9/13/07 as the next daily CIT with the same timing technique that pinpointed the 9/4/07 High. I also have the 56 hour Cycle due 9/17/07@1st hour, the last one was a 9/4 High. These are based on 2 different timing techniques.
Watch the 11.45 and 2.40 pm (always Eastern) today as the potential HIGH of the Day and selloff into tomorrow morning.
9/17@ 1st hour will still be a High, but most likely a double or lower Top with today's High. After this, OE week should be down.
I have taken a 16 SP point (1472-1488) profit, although I could be early at the 11.45 High from yesterday's 4pm buy (see yesterday's post).
If we take out the 1488 SEP, I will consider going long again as we should then rally to the 2.40 pm CIT.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
The secondary Low due 9/12-13 has not manifested itself yet and we are right at key Resistance at 1478 SPX.
I had a 2.20 CIT today, which was important and sofar we had a 2.15 HOD (High of the day), let's see if it holds. I plan to buy the 4pm CIT, if a Low.
Today or early tomorrow is the Time to buy for a rally into atleast the 56 hour CIT High due on 9/17@Open.
I'll look closely at all the cycles in the weekend to see what OE week will look like.
The 56 hour Cycle, which I first discovered a couple of months ago, is next due Monday 9/17/07@1st hour. Notice the last 56 hour cycle pinpointed the last high on 9/4 @close perfectly as well as the last Major High on 7/19@close. Why it exists I am not sure, but what is apparent is that it continues to work.
On the chart I have shown the potential bullish count. The 5 black horizontal Lines are the Gaps created on the chart, the last 4 gaps were created in the last 2 weeks alone, since the 8/28 Lunar Eclipse Low.
As you can see, there is Major resistance at the 1478 SPX area, which is right at the Gap above current prices, the Fork Resistance Line and the Key horizontal Gann Trendline. Any sustainable rally will have to take that 1478 SPX area out first.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Actual Times: 11.40 LOD, 12.55L and 3.25 pm High of the day. The V day manifested as expected and both the LOD and HOD came at exact CITs.
Key Times to watch for 9/11/07:
1. 12.20 pm for the HOD or LOD
2. 2.00 pm for the LOD
We currently have a Gap and Go patriotic rally underway, with Lows right at the Open. After the 2pm expected Lows, we should rally into the last hour. Any move above 1470 Sep SP will be bullish and suggests the Lows came in yesterday and 9/12-13 will be only a retest Low. Any rally today should be retraced tomorrow.
The last 4 gaps were made in the last 2 weeks, in a very erratic Market behavior since the 8/28 LE through the 9/11 SE.
The 9/12-13 Low should be a good time to get long for a strong rally into 9/18-19 next daily CIT.
Friday, September 7, 2007
Daily Cycles for Swingtraders: 9/4-6 High, 9/13 Low, 9/20H
Solar Price* Support/Resistance (SR) 9/07/07: 1382, 1403, 1424, 1447, 1470, 1487, 1504, 1519.50 , 1535 SEP SP500
Intraday Change in Trend (CIT) Times 9/07/07: 9 .35, 10.35*, 11.10, 12.30, 2.40, hourly close.
The market is awaiting the Unemployment report, so not much has changed from yesterday's pattern. The 30 min chart shows how the market has been hanging on a thread on the blue uptrendline. Right below is the KEY (Red) Gann TL Support at 1463-64 SPX that needs to be broken before any serious decline can take place.
The breakdown, imho, if not tomorrow, should take place no later than Monday 9/10 and last through 9/13, my next daily CIT. The News media will generate lots of FEAR around 9/11 6th year anniversary with a Bin Laden tape.
CNN has this article:
Imho, Someone wants this market cheaper, so that they can buy it at a lower price. This is the reason you can expect prices to be lower into 9/13/07. The hourly SPX (see chart) suggests we may have a 3 Gap play once 1464 SPX is taken out.
1. 1464 SPX Red Gann TL and Fork Support
2. 8/31 Gap @ 1457.64 SPX/ 1461.70 SEP SP and 1459 SPX 200 DMA 3. 8/29 Gap @ 1432.36 SPX / 1438.50 Sep SP 8/29 Gap
4. 1425-30 SPX = previous wave 4 and 50% Retrace is 1429.45 Sep SP
5. 8/17 Gap @ 1411 SPX/ 1425 SEP SP and 62% retrace
Key SPX/SEP SP Resistance areas:
1. 9/5 Gap @ 1489.50 SPX, which close to the 50 DMA @ 1488 SPX
2. 70.7%R=1502 SPX and 1504 SPX is 8/8 Swing High.
3. 78.6 %R = 1516 SPX
These Price Support / Resistance (SR) areas combined with the intra day CITs gives a high 90% probability turns. Also watch the Solar Prices, especially 1447, 1470, 1487 Sep SP as Key Support/Resistance and floor trader's price SR.
The 5min chart shows a breakout is due soon and an Apex CIT at 10.35 am
Good Luck and Trade well.
Reminder: Trade the CITs and not the biases. Speculative paths and biases can and do change depending on the actual Market unfoldment. If we rally into a CIT, it's a High and if we decline into a CIT, it's a Low, especially at Key Support and Resistance areas. CIT's work 70-80% of the time and they don't work well in SD (Strong Down) or SU days.
Trading in Stocks, ETF, Options and Futures involves risks. The contents of this email is for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as an investment advice or strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The content may not be copied or reproduced.
Important Daytrading Notes to review carefully:
Glossary of Intraday terms:
CIT = Change in Trend, HOD/LOD = High of Day/Low of Day, MOB = Make or Break, OE = Option Expiration Day, SP Cycle = Symmetry Point/Mirror Image Cycle, SU/SD = Strong Up/Strong Down, SR = Support/Resistance, TD = Trading Days, TL = Trendline, WBOE = Wednesday before Option Expiration Day, 50/200 DMA = 50/200 Day Moving Average, Fund Managers watch this closely.
Trading the CITs:
1. CIT (= Change in Trend) Times could be either Highs or Lows. If the markets are rallying into the CIT Time frame, it will be a High.
If the markets are declining into the CIT Time Frame, it will be a Low.
1. Intraday Time CIT's are most of the times exact or off by +/- 5, seldom +/-10 minutes to remain valid.
2. CIT's don't work well when manipulation is more likely, like in thin markets, eg before holidays (last week) or in OE week or when a FED intervention is obvious and even announced.
3. Major Price Support and Resistance (SR) also causes CIT's, that's the reason why when Price CIT and Time CITs meet, the probability increases to 90% for a CIT to occur.4. CIT's don't have to occur at extreme Highs or Lows, they could occur in an uptrend.
5. Not all CITs work, naturally we expect all of them to work, especially if they have worked incredibly well in the past. They work 70-80% of the time, 20% of them don't, especially when the markets go SU or SD. Be patient, take a position, only if a CIT is clear for you.
6. Always keep a 3 point stop under the CIT time, if going Long or a 3 point stop above, if going short. That's the point where the CIT should be wrong in general. If you're in 3-5 SP point profit, move your stop to Break Even (BE).
7. Trade the CITs, not the biases or opinions, etc., just watch what the market is actually doing at the CIT.
8. Be patient, you don't have to trade all CITs, overtime, there will be many more good CITs to trade.
9. The trend is your friend, one possible strategy in daytrading is to only trade with the trend, ie
When the general trend is UP, look to trade those CITs that are Lows. This is best done in Strong Up trending Markets.
When the general trend is DOWN, look to trade those CITs that are Highs. This is best done in strong down trending Markets.
10. It's best to observe first how the CITs work before using them, so you get a feel for them. It's best to use them as an additional tool in your arsenal of intraday tools in your toolbox. They should not be used as a stand alone tool, but rather in conjunction with your own intraday buy and sell signals.
It is important to be aware that Floor traders have a regularly calculated set of SR, which you can calculate yourself here:
*Solar Prices are calculated Price Support and Resistances (S/R) using a proprietary technique. When the Markets reach a Solar S/R Price or one of the floor-trader's S/R at the same time as an Intraday CIT, the probability increases up to 90% that a Turn is likely.