Wednesday, December 17, 2014

Today's 12/17 Intraday forecast vs Actual

Today's 12/17 Intraday forecast:


The Biblical 7 year Cycle and the 360 TD Cycle

"Behold, there come seven years of great plenty throughout all the land of Egypt:"
"And there shall arise after them seven years of famine; and all the plenty shall be forgotten in the land of Egypt; and the famine shall consume the land;"
(Genesis 41:29 & 30 KJV)

I first mentioned the 360 TD (trading Days) Cycle on my public blog more than 3 years ago in October 2011. In my last public post, I had a 360 TD Analog looking for a major High, where 7/16/07H=9/19/14H, 8/16/07L=10/15/14L and the 10/11/07 major High, became the 12/5/14 major High, which is the biblical 7 year Cycle.

The day by day analog was not exact as fixed cycles always have a variance and this one was off by 1-2 weeks, but what is interesting here is the following: 10/11/07H + 1800 TD = 12/5/14H. What is so special about that? 1800 TD = 5 X 360 TD is the 7 year cycle.

This 1800 TD/7 year cycle+/- has pinpointed major Highs and Lows in the past:
  1. 10/11/07H – 12/05/14H =1800 TD
  2. 08/13/04L – 10/04/11L = 1798 TD
  3. 03/12/03L – 04/26/10H = 1793 TD
  4. 03/12/03L – 05/06/10L = 1801 TD (Flash Crash)
  5. 09/21/01L11/21/08L = 1805 TD
  6. 09/01/00H – 10/11/07H = 1785 TD
  7. 08/11/08H - 09/28/15H = 1792 TD
  8. 11/21/08L01/26/16L = 1800 TD
The future 9/28/15 Blood Moon total Lunar Eclipse is another biblical 7 years/1800 TD from the 8/11/08 swing High, before the panic into 11/21/08 crash Low, which was 1805 TD from the 9/21/01 Crash Low and 1800 TD in the future is January 2016.

There are other examples of course, but these are some from the above chart. The 1800 TD/7 year cycle suggests 12/5/14 was a major High and we are due for a sharp correction, which is due to bottom in 2016.  However, there are other Cycles, like the 3 and 4 year cycles that bottomed on 10/15/14 major Low that suggest we will see an initial bullish up trust early next year. The various cycles will cause some large swings in 2015, so be prepared.

The Short term outlook: We are looking for a 12/16-17 short term Low at the triple 12/16-17 geometric and Solar CIT and a sharp, but brief rally, before we decline again.

Thursday, November 27, 2014

Thanksgiving and Gratitude

A recent study set out to determine the affects of gratitude. After making initial observations and compiling all the previous research on gratitude, they conducted the Research Project on Gratitude and Thanksgiving. The study required several hundred people in three different groups to keep daily diaries. The first group kept a diary of the events that occurred during the day, while the second group recorded their unpleasant experiences. The last group made a daily list of things for which they were grateful.

The results of the study indicated that daily gratitude exercises resulted in higher reported levels of alertness, enthusiasm, determination, optimism and energy. Additionally, the gratitude group experienced less depression and stress. They were more likely to help others, exercised more frequently and made more progress toward personal goals. According to the findings, people who feel grateful are also more likely to feel loved. Researchers noted that gratitude encouraged a positive cycle of reciprocal kindness among people because one act of gratitude encourages another.
These results also seem to show that gratitude works independently of faith. Although gratitude is a substantial part of most religions, it appears the benefits extend to the general population, regardless of faith or lack thereof.
This suggests that anyone can increase their sense of well-being and create positive social effects just from counting their blessings. What are you thankful for?

Here are sixty things to be grateful for in our lives:

1. Your parents - for giving birth to you. Because if there is no them, there will not be you.
2. Your family – for being your closest kin in the world.
3. Your friends – for being your companions in life.
4. Sense of sight – for letting you see the colors of life.
5. Sense of hearing - for letting you hear trickle of rain, the voices of your loved ones, and the harmonious chords of music.
6. Sense of touch - for letting you feel the texture of your clothes, the breeze of the wind, the hands of your loved ones.
7. Sense of smell – for letting you smell scented candles, perfumes, and beautiful flowers in your garden.
8. Sense of taste – for letting you savor the sweetness of fruits, the saltiness of seawater, the sourness of pickles, the bitterness of bitter gourd, and the spiciness of chili.
9. Your speech – for giving you the outlet to express yourself.
10. Your heart – for pumping blood to all the parts of your body every second since you were born; for giving you the ability to feel.
11. Your lungs – for letting you breathe so you can live.
12. Your immune system – for fighting viruses that enter your body. For keeping you in the pink of your health so you can do the things you love.
13. Your hands – so you can type on your computer, flip the pages of books, and hold the hands of your loved ones.
14. Your legs - for letting you walk, run, swim, play the sports you love, and curl up in the comfort of your seat.
15. Your mind - for the ability to think, to store memories, and to create new solutions.
16. Your good health – for enabling you to do what you want to do and for what you’re about to do in the future.
17. Your school - for providing a environment conducive to learning and growing.
18. Your teachers – for their dedication and for passing down knowledge to you.
19. Tears – for helping you express your deepest emotions.
20. Disappointment - so you know the things that matter to you most.
21. Fears – so you know your opportunities for growth.
22. Pain – for you to become a stronger person.
23. Sadness – for you to appreciate the spectrum of human emotions.
24. Happiness – for you to soak in the beauty of life.
25. The Sun - for bringing in light and beauty to this world.
26. Sunset – for a beautiful sight to end the day.
27. Moon and Stars - for brightening up our night sky.
28. Sunrise - for a beautiful sight to start the morning.
29. Rain – for cooling you when it gets too warm and for making it comfy to sleep in on weekends.
30. Snow – for making winter even more beautiful.
31. Rainbows – for a beautiful sight to look forward to after rain.
32. Oxygen - for making life possible.
33. The earth – for creating the environment for life to begin.
34. Mother nature - for covering our world in beauty.
35. Animals – for adding to the diversity of life.
36. Internet - for connecting you and others despite the physical space between you.
37. Transport - for making it easier to commute from one place to another.
38. Mobile phones – for making it easy to stay in touch with others.
39. Computers – for making our lives more effective and efficient.
40. Technology – for making impossible things possible.
41. Movies – for providing a source of entertainment.
42. Books – for adding wisdom into your life.
43. Blogs – for connecting you with other like-minded people.
44. Shoes – for protecting your feet when you are out.
45. Time – for a system to organize yourself and keep track of activities.
46. Your job – for giving you a source of living and for being a medium where you can add value to the world.
47. Music - for lifting your spirits when you’re down and for filling your life with more love.
48. Your bed - for you to sleep comfortably in every night.
49. Your home - for a place you can call home.
50. Your soul mate – for being the one who understands everything you’re going through.
51. Your best friends – for being there for you whenever you need them.
52. Your enemies – for helping you uncover your blind spots so you can become a better person.
53. Kind strangers – for brightening up your days when you least expect it.
54. Your mistakes - for helping you to improve and become better.
55. Heartbreaks - for helping you mature and become a better person.
56. Laughter - for serenading your life with joy.
57. Love - for letting you feel what it means to truly be alive.
58. Life’s challenges - for helping you grow and become who you are.
59. Life - for giving you the chance to experience all that you’re experiencing, and will be experiencing in time to come.
And last but not least… #60:
You.  For being who you are and touching the world with your presence.

Happy Thanksgiving to all!

Friday, November 7, 2014

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast November 7 2014

Forecast from my last public post on 10/24: “There is one 360 cycle that was similar to the current market 7/16/07H=9/19/14H and 8/16/07L=10/15L. If we continue to follow this cycle, we will see a sharp rally to all time Highs (#3 on chart).”

Actual: The markets unfolded as the above 360 Cycle predicted. From the 10/15L, which found 8/16/07L green parallel channel support, we rallied a whopping 210+ SP’s to fresh All time Highs into 11/7 right at the 10/11/07H green parallel channel resistance.

Forecast 10/24 Raj T&C Report: We should rally into 10/24H, decline 1-2 day into 10/27-28L, before we rally into 10/29-31 major Time and Cycle (T&C) Cluster High.”

Actual: We made an 10/24 High, saw a 1 day pullback into Monday 10/27 Low (Forecast #1 on chart) and rallied 73.09 SP’s to Monday 11/3 High (Forecast #2), 1 TD later.

Forecast 10/31 Raj T&C Weekend Report: “We have been straight up (SU) since the 10/15 Lows into the 10/29-11/3 T&C Cluster, suggesting a 10/31-11/3H, but in rare occasions, such as these Straight Up markets these CIT clusters are ignored. The bias now is we see a brief pullback into Monday 11/3L and then chop around next week and make another 11/7-10 major higher All time High.”

Actual: We made a 11/3H, 1 TD later, saw a brief pullback into 11/4L, 1 TD later,  (Forecast #3), and rallied another 30+ SP’s to fresh All time Highs into 11/7H so far. (Forecast #4).

We have a 11/7 Solar Time CIT (Change in Trend) and a 11/7 and 11/11 geometric CIT supporting this. There is a fixed 1336-37 CD Cycle due on 11/11+/- as well. Furthermore, there are 2 important mathematical Time Squares due on 11/7 and the other is on 11/11.

The mathematical Time Square CIT (Change in Trend) due on 11/11+/-
3/06/09L + 668 TD (25.85^2) = 10/27/11H (668 Trading Days =  25.85 Squared).
For the next CIT, you add +2 to 25.85 = 27.85 and you re-square it to get the following:
3/06/09L + 775 TD (27.84^2) = 04/02/12H
3/06/09L + 890 TD (29.83^2) = 09/14/12H
3/06/09L +1013 TD (31.83^2)= 03/18/13L
3/06/09L +1144 TD (33.83^2)= 09/19/13H
3/06/09L +1284 TD (35.83^2)= 4/14/14 Low
3/06/09L +1431TD (37.83^2)= 11/11/14 High+/-

Conclusion and What’s next: We make a 11/7-10 major High and start a decline.

Update 11/21: 11/13 was a minor Low. I was expecting a brief decline, before the rally resumed higher. We have been in a "Stuck Up" since 10/15 major Low. As long as this is the case, we should be buying on pullbacks. 

Monday, October 27, 2014

Monday 10/27 Intraday Times and Cycles

 On Friday evening, I posted on my public blog:
"10/24 Evening Update: Monday and perhaps Tuesday 10/27-28 should be down days, before we head higher once again"

From this past weekend report:

"Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 10/27/14: 9.35, 11.05, 11.35, 1.25 pm CIT Eastern.
Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: 79/21% (9.40H), 10.20L, 11.40H, 68/32% 1.00L/H, 2.00H/L, 3.40L/H. Monday sees an Inversion with a possible 9.40 High +/- and a 79% chance we see a 10.20 Low at the 11.05 CIT, rally to a 11.40 High at the 11.35 CIT, then there is a 68% chance we see a last hour Low and a 32% chance we see a last hour High."

Forecast: "Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 10/27/14: 9.35, 11.05, 11.35, 1.25 pm CIT Eastern."

Actual: 9.35 High, 11.11 High, 11.35 High, 1.25 High.

Forecast "Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: 79/21% (9.40H), 10.20L, 11.40H, 68/32% 1.00L/H, 2.00H/L, 3.40L/H."

Actual: 10.05L, 11.15H, 11.35H

We saw a 10.05 1st hour Low and a midday High as expected.

We now have a good 68% chance we see a last hour Low and a 32% chance we invert to a last hour High. 

If we see a last hour Low, then tomorrow sees a High am to Low pm day. 

If we see a last hour High, then tomorrow sees a Low am to High pm day.

Friday, October 24, 2014

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast October 24 2014

In my last public post, I was looking for a 9/26 CIT (Change in Trend) Low. This CIT became the 9/25 swing High instead.

From 9/26 T&C report: “We will see another rally into 10/3-6 Major Time cluster CIT. The 10/3 CIT has 7 hits: 1. 10/3 Solar. 2. 10/4 Cycle CIT. 3. 4 Geometric CITs and 4. 10/4 is the “end of the 9 days of Mother Divine CIT”.

From 9/30 T&C report: “There is a potential “Mother Divine Crash Cycle that sees a 10/20 crash Low, but we will address that potential-or not by the 10/3-6 cluster CIT High”

From 10/3 T&C report: “If we see an 10/3-6 High, we will see another sharp decline into 10/10 Solar CIT”

Actual: We made an 10/6 major secondary High, right at the 10/3-6 major Time Cluster CIT and declined sharply into 10/15 Low, which  saw a volatile recovery after that. The markets declined beyond my 10/10 Low date and bottomed before the 10/20 Low date, which was a miss in my work.

The 10/15L hit major long term 10/4/11L-11/16/12L channel support at 1820.66 SPX.

From 10/15 T&C report: Remember the 360 TD/75 week Cycle? There is one 360 cycle that was similar 7/16/07H=9/19/14H and 8/16/07L=10/18L” 

Actual: This cycle bottomed out on 10/15 Low, right at parallel channel support and saw a similar Time and Price decline as the 7/16/07 High to the 8/16/07 Low and if we continue to follow this cycle, we will see a sharp rally to all time Highs (3).

What’s next: The major Low is in and we should rally into the next major Time and Cycle cluster CIT and make another swing High.

10/24 Evening Update: Monday and perhaps Tuesday 10/27-28 should be down days, before we head higher once again.

Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Gold at major Long term support

I have Gold at major Long term trend line support since April 2001 Lows.

We are in the dark days window of the stock market, be careful out there.

Friday, September 26, 2014

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast Sep 26, 2014

In my last public post, I was looking for an 9/11-12 Low.


Forecast from the 9/12 Daily Email: “We are looking for a 9/11-12 Low. From there we rally into 9/19 High. Afterwards we see a relative sharp decline into 9/26 Time Square, Cycle and Solar CIT Low.”



Actual: We made a Monday 9/15 Low (1 on chart), 1 TD later and saw a 40.78 SP rally into 9/19 All time Highs (2 on chart). We then saw a 53.27 SP sharp decline into 9/25 Lows (3 on chart). 


Time Square of 9 Lows from 10/11/07 (Red lines on chart)
10/11/07 - 11/16/12L = 1285 TD = 35.85^2 and 131.16 SP decline in 63 CD
37.85^2 = 1433 TD = 06/24/13L and 126.85 SP decline in 33 CD
38.85     = 1509 TD = 10/10/13L-1 and 82.97 SP decline in 20 CD
39.85    = 1588 TD = 02/04/14L+1 and 112.92 SP decline in 21 CD
40.85    = 1669 TD = 06/02/14L miss
41.85    = 1751 TD = 09/26/14 Low

There are many who believe timing important Market Highs and Lows (Change in Trends = CIT) is futile and impossible, but as we have shown in the past weeks and months, pinpointing exact Highs and Lows is not only possible, it has been and can be done on a consistent basis. The proprietary Solar, Geometric and Time Square Time CIT's are precise mathematical tools.


What’s next: We are looking for a 9/26 swing Low+/-1 Day at the important Time Square CIT above and another rally into the next major swing High.

Thursday, September 11, 2014

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast Sep 11, 2014


In my last public post, I was looking for an 8/22-25 High.


Forecast from the 8/22 Daily Email: From the 8/22-25 High, we see a decline into 8/29 swing Low and then another rally into 9/5 swing High.


Actual: We made an 8/26 High (1 on chart) and saw a brief 14.52 SP decline into 8/28 Low (2 on chart). We then saw a 20.65 SP rally into 9/4 All time High (3 on chart).


Forecast from the 8/28 Daily Email: From the 9/5 swing High, we decline into a  9/11 swing Low.


Actual: From the 9/4 swing High, we declined 28.18 SP’s into 9/10 Low (4 on chart) so far.


What’s next: We are looking for a 9/11 Low+/-1 Day and another rally into the next swing High. This should be followed by a very sharp decline into the next major swing Low.

Friday, August 22, 2014

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast

In my last 8/2 public post, I mentioned: “The Flash Crash Cycle is a fixed cycle that can expand or contract and will have its misses (3 out of 10) and is due in August”

From my 8/2 Daily Email: “Short term, the bias is 8/1 was a Low and we should see an oversold rally into 8/5 Highs at the 8/5 double Geo CIT, 8/5 Solar CIT and 8/5 Solar CIT High, before we see a sharper decline into Monday 8/11 Geo and Cycle CIT and rally into 8/15 Geo CIT Option Expiration (OE) week High…The Flash Crash cycle gets triggered only below 1883 SPX”

From the 8/8 Email Update: “This week (Aug 4-8) is the Week before Option Expiration week (WBOE) and should be an 8/8 Low, before we rally into OE crook’s week at the 8/15-18 CIT. Swing traders should lower their stop to 1946 SPX and/or cover their shorts by 8/8, as OE crook's week is around the corner.”
Actual: We saw an 8/1 Low and a brief rally into 8/4 High at the 8/5 CIT. We declined into 8/7 Geo CIT and Friday 8/8 Globex Low, 1 Trading Day before the 8/11 CIT. Swing traders shorts from 7/25 were covered for a good 50-60 SP profit on 8/8L and swingtraders who went long on 8/8-11 also booked a 25-40 SP profits as we rallied strongly into OE 8/15 week as expected and beyond. The 8/15-18 CIT was the 8/15 Low. The FC cycle never got triggered as we didn’t get to the 1883 SPX Make or Break support.

What’s next: 

From the 8/21 Email: The 8/21 Long and short term double Geo CIT, the 8/24 Solar CIT and 8/22-25 Time square is the next major CIT Cluster to watch and should be an  8/21-25 major High.”
Actual: We are rallying into the 8/21-25 major Time and Cycle Cluster CIT suggesting a major High is due soon.

We have rallied into the 361 TD FC Cycle (see chart) and into the 8/21-25 major T&C Cluster suggesting an important 8/21-25 major High forming, before a sharp decline starts. Also the 30 week cycle due around this time:  The 30 week cycle: 7/8/09L -212/30- 2/5/10L -207- 8/27/10L -201- 3/16/11L -202- 10/04/11L -210/30- 5/1/12H -210/30- 11/27/12L(-11) -210/30- 6/25/13L -210- 1/21/14-213 = 8/22/14+/-week.

8/21-25 is the next major Time CIT Cluster to watch:
1. The Long Term Geometric CIT since the 3/6/09 Low and a short term Geometric CIT is due on 8/21+/-1.
2. The next Solar CIT is This weekend 8/24.
3. 8/22-25 is next major Time Square CIT from 10/11/07H.

Long term geometric CIT is due on Thursday 8/21***

Time Squares of Highs from 10/11/07
10/11/07 - 4/2/12 High =  1127 TD = 33.56 Squared
10/11/07 - 10/17/12 High = 1265 TD = 35.56^2
10/11/07 - 5/21/13 High = 1411 TD = 37.56^2
10/11/07 -12/31/13 High = 1566 TD =39.57^2
41.56 = 1727 TD = 8/22/14 High next!
41.57 = 1728 TD = 8/25/14

The last 3 Time Squares from 10/11/07H has all been major Highs (blue lines) and the next one due on 8/22-25 and should also be a major High. If correct, we will see a relative sharp decline as the last 3 declines averaged 120 SP’s into a major Low, based on another Time square series from 10/11/07H that has all been major Lows (Red Lines on chart).

Please note as these public posts are an excerpt, they will not include all the information needed. To trade these T&C clusters CIT, we follow one simple rule: As all trends are up, swing traders should short only when we see a clear reversal and close lower. Once the Highs are in, there will be plenty of time to get short and always place a stop at those Highs.

Saturday, August 2, 2014

The Flash Crash Cycle is due in August 2014

In my last post, I was looking for a 7/24-25 High.

Actual: We made a 7/24 major High and saw a sharp 75.02 SP decline into Friday's Lows.

The 5/6/10 mini Crash became known as the Flash Crash. I discovered this cycle back in 2010, when the Flash Crash occurred, which is why I named it the Flash crash cycle. This Cycle has been in the markets ever since the crash of 4/14/00 Low. I was amazed, when I first discovered this cycle to find it was a perfect 360 Trading Days (TD) Cycle, like the 360 degrees of a Circle (Cycle), it suggested that this fixed Cycle was found at major turning points.

The Flash Crash (FC) Cycle is a fixed 75 wk/525CD/360 TD (degree) Cycle that is next due Mid to Late August 2014.

04/14/00L -358- 9/21/01L - 369/77- 3/12/03L -359 - 8/13/04L- 1078 (3X 360
=1080) - 11/21/08L-356-4/26/10H-364-10/4/11L-720-8/15/14+/-

Some of the 525 CD/75 week cycle Lows were major Panic Lows, like the 4/14/00 Low, 9/21/01 Panic Low and the 11/21/08 banking crisis Low, although some were not all that "flashy", like the 3/12/03 Low and 8/13/04 Low, but still they were major Lows.
The Flash Crash cycle in details
04/14/00L - 09/21/01L = 525 CD = 75 weeks = 2.618 X 200 CD = 523.6
04/14/00L - 03/12/03L = 1062 CD = 2.02 X 525 CD = 03/12/03 Major Low
04/14/00L - 08/13/04L = 1582 CD = 3.01 X 525 CD = 08/13/04 Major Low
04/14/00L - 11/21/08L = 3143 CD = 5.99 X 525 CD = 11/21/08 Major Low,
04/14/00L - 05/06/10L = 3674 CD = 7.00 X 525 CD = 05/06/10 flash Crash,
04/14/00L - 10/14/11 = 4200 CD = 7.98 X 525 CD = 10/04/11L, Major Low.
04/14/00L -08/29/14 = 5250 CD = 10.00X 525 CD = 08/29/14 +/-

7 out of 10 FC Cycles saw 7%-26% (avg 12-14%) declines and most are in 2-3 wks
03/24/00H - 04/14/00L was a 14% decline in 3 weeks
08/31/01H - 09/21/01L was a 20% decline in 3 weeks
01/31/13H - 03/12/03L was a 16% decline in 8 weeks
06/24/04H - 08/13/04L was a 7% decline in 7 weeks
11/04/08H - 11/21/08L was a 26% decline in 3 weeks
4/26/10H - 05/06/10L was a 12% decline in 3 weeks
9/16/11H - 10/04/11L was a 12% decline in 2 weeks

7 out of 10 (70%) of the Flash Crash 360 TD/75 week Cycles saw sharp 12-14% declines, (3 did not see any decline) mostly in 2-3 weeks some time in August 2014 Lows. Some were not "flashy", like the 3/12/03L and 8/13/04L, but were still major Lows.

Perfect (exact) 360 TD (degrees) Harmonics all due in August 2014!
04/14/00L + 3600 TD (10 X 360 TD)= 08/11/14
09/21/01L + 3240 TD ( 9 X 360 TD) = 08/07/14
03/12/03L + 2880 TD (8 X 360 TD) = 08/20/14
08/13/04L + 2520 TD (7 X 360 TD) = 08/19/14
11/21/08L + 1440 TD (4 X 360 TD) = 08/15/14
05/06/10L + 1080 TD (3 X 360 TD) = 08/21/14
10/04/11L +  720 TD (2 X 360 TD) = 08/15/14

It is interesting that so many (7) 360 TD degree Harmonics are all due in August 2014.

The Flash Crash Cycle is a fixed cycle that can expand or contract and will have its misses (3), but if you study it carefully, when they do work, you'll see some amazing accuracies in Trading Days (TD), that are off maximum 1-4 TD variance from the 360 TD Cycle (Circle, degrees):

1. 04/14/00L - 358 TD- 09/21/01L, +2 TD = 360
2. 03/12/03L - 359 TD- 08/13/04L, +1 TD = 360
3. 08/13/04L -1078 TD-11/21/08L, +2 TD = 360 X 3
4. 11/21/08L - 364 TD -05/06/10L, +4 TD = 360
5. 05/06/10L - 356 TD -10/04/11L, -4 TD = 360
6. 11/21/08L - 720 TD - 10/04/11L, -0 TD = 360 X 2
7. 08/16/07L - 723 TD - 07/01/10L, -3 TD = 360 X 2

The best way to use this Flash Crash cycle is with other Time and Cycle techniques and they are a few other reliable timing techniques to help pinpoint the exact date for the Low, whether it crashes or not, the date for the low in August is already marked on my calendar.

Conclusion Flash Crash (FC) cycle: The next Flash Crash cycle is due Mid to late August Lows. 7 out of 10 Flash Crash 360 TD Cycles saw sharp 12-14% declines (3 of them were off or did not see any declines), mostly in 2-3 weeks some time in August 2014 Lows. Please note some were not "flashy", like the 3/12/03L and 8/13/04L, but were still major Lows.  If the Flash Crash Cycle is active, we will see a swift 2-3 week, minimum 7% to average 12% decline most likely into the August major Lows.

Friday, July 25, 2014

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast

In my last public post, I was looking for a 7/10-11 Low.

Forecast (1) from my July 11 Report: “After the 7/10-11L, we rally into OE crook’s week into 7/16 Solar and Geometric CIT High of the week”

Actual: We made a July 10 Low and rallied 32.75 SP’s into a 7/16 High. From there we saw a sharp decline afterwards.

Forecast (2) from the 7/19 weekend Report: The bias has shifted that the 7/16 CIT was the 7/17L and we will rally into the 7/24 double Geometric CIT and the 70/140 TD and 270 TD Cycle due 7/22+/-wk. Any rally above 1986 SPX targets the 2000 SPX area.”

Actual: From the 7/17 Low, we rallied to All time Highs at 1991.39 SPX into 7/24 double Geometric CIT Highs.

There were 2 fixed cycles due around this time (Fixed Cycles has a variance of a couple of days)

1. The 70/140 Trading Day (TD) Cycle: 2/5/10L, 8/27/10L, 3/18/11L(-2), 10/6/11L(-2), 4/27/12H(+2)-138 TD- 70 TD: 11/16/12L, 3/1/13L, 6/10/13, 9/19/13H, 12/31/13H-4/11/14L-7/24/14H.

2. 270 TD Cycle: 3/6/09L -542 TD - (2X271)-5/02/11H-275-6/4/12L-264-6/24/13L-271- 7/24/14H.

What’s next: We should make a July 24-25 High that could stretch into Monday's July 28 Solar CIT and start a decline. We have a double long term monthly SPX resistance (see chart above) for July at the 2000 SPX area.

Friday, July 11, 2014

Forecasted: 7/3 High, decline into 7/10-11 Low

Forecast made on 7/1: We should see one last higher High by 7/2-3 at the 7/2 Geometric and Solar CIT and decline into 7/10-12 Lows. The 10 TD Hurst Cycle was 10 TD long at the 6/26L from the 6/12L and is next due 7/11L+/-3, right at the reliable Time Square from 7/18/06L + 54^2 = 07/12/14. The 45 TD Hurst Cycle should then bottom at that time."

Actual: We made a 7/3 High and declined 32.73 SP's into 7/10 Lows, 9 TD from the 6/26L.

From 7/10 update:  "Markets so far has declined into 7/10 in an ABC decline. We are expecting a Low today, so it is time to TMAR (Take the money and run). "Globex has been down all night. Often, though not always, we see the Low of the day right near the Open or 1st half hour."

"Declines since the 4/11/14L has been maximum 30-40 SP in 2-4 TD. This suggests max a 7/10L at 1945-55 SPX ."

Actual: Markets bottomed right at the Open on 7/10 in an ABC decline, in 4 TD and 32.73 SP's at 1952.86 SPX, right at the 1945-55 SPX target zone.

We have had 6 declines since the 4/11/14L that has ALL been between 30-40 SP in 2-4 TD.
1. 4/22H - 4/28L = 34.28 SP in 4 TD
2. 5/02H - 5/07L = 31.54 SP in 3 TD
3. 5/13H - 5/15L = 39.81 SP in 2 TD
4. 6/09H - 6/12L = 29.77 SP in 3 TD
5. 6/24H - 6/26L = 23.48 SP in 2 TD
6. 7/03H –7/10L = 32.73 SP in 4 TD

It would be a Change in Trend, if we declined more than 4 TD and more than 40 SP's.

Time Squares from 7/18/06 Major Low have a long history of accuracy
The Squared Days from certain past Highs and Lows have marked important future Highs and Lows. For example, 7/18/06L + 50 Squared CD = 50 X 50 = 2500 CD + 7/18/06L = 5/22/13H

26^2 = 05/24/08 -5 = 05/19/08 Major High  27^2 = 07/16/08 -1 = 07/15/08 Major Low
28^2 = 09/09/08 -5 = 09/02/08 Major High  29^2 = 11/05/08 -1 = 11/04/08 Major High
30^2 = 01/03/09+2 = 01/06/09 Major High  31^2 = 03/05/09+1 = 03/06/09 Major Low
32^2 = 05/07/09+1 = 05/08/09 Major high   33^2 = 07/11/09-3  = 07/08/09 Major Low
34^2 = 09/16/09      = 09/16/09 High            35^2 = 11/24/09+3  = 11/27/09 Dubai Low
36^2 = 02/03/10 +2 = 02/05/10 Major Low  37^2=  04/17/10  -2 = 04/15/10 High
38^2 = 07/01/10 Major Low                         39^2 = 9/16/10 Miss
40^2 = 12/04/10 was the 11/29/10L              41^2 = 02/23/11=> 2/18/11 High
42^2 = 05/17/11 Low                                    43^2 = 8/10/11 => 8/9/11 Low
44^2= 11/5/11 => 10/27/11 High                  45^2= 2/2/12 => 1/30/12 Low
46^2 = 5/3/12 => 5/1/12H                             47^2 = 8/4/12 รจ 8/2/12 Low
48^2 = 11/7/12  => 11/16/12 major Low       49^2 = 2/12/13 Miss
50^ 2 =5/22/13 => 5/22/13 High                   51^2 =8/31/13=8/28/13L   
52^2=12/12/13L                                            53^2 = 03/27/14  => 3/27/14 Low
54^2 = 07/12/14 is next

What's next: We make a 7/10-11 short term Low and rally into the next Solar and Geometric CIT.

Monday, June 23, 2014

Time and Cycle Review and Forecast

Review: The 6/2 T&C Cluster CIT from my last public post was a minor 6/2 Low.
We didn’t see any reversal lower, so shorts were not triggered.

Forecast from the June 7 weekend report: “Odds are good we will see higher highs Monday, 6/9. A couple of arguments for a 6/6-9 swing High: 1. Fibo: 10/11/07H-4/26/10H= 928 X 2.618 = 2430 CD +10/11/07H = 6/6/14. 2. The 423 hourly Cycle is due near the close 6/6 to open 6/9. 3. Mercury goes Retrograde on 6/7, often a CIT. From this 6/6-9 High, we should see a brief sharp decline into 6/11 Solar CIT. We expect a decent pullback of at least 30 SP’s (1930 SPX) to even 50+ SP’s to the 1900 SPX+/-10 area, before we bottom.”

Actual: We made a 6/9 swing High and saw a 30 SP decline into 6/12 Solar CIT Low of the week, before the rally into Option Expiration week.

Forecast from the June 19 report: “The 6/22 Solar CIT (change in Trend) is biased to be a 6/23 High and  targets major Long term channel resistance at 1966-68 SPX.”

Actual: We rallied into Monday 6/23 High, with an intraday Friday High of 1963.91 SPX so far.

The 35 week cycle has produced major Highs and Lows in the last 5 years: 3/6/09L-35 week-

The 333 TD/69 wks/484 Cycle has produced major Highs and Lows since the last 8 years :  
7/18/06L-325 TD-10/31/07H-338-3/06/09L-332-07/01/10L-335-10/27/11H-332-2/26/13L-333 TD-
6/23/14+/-.  The 333 TD or 69 wk cycle is double the 35 wk cycle and suggests a major CIT around 6/23/14+/- week.

What’s next: We make a 6/23 swing High. As all trends are up, we need a clear reversal lower no later than tomorrow to confirm this. We will then decline into my next upcoming Time Square, Geometric and Solar CIT major Cluster.

6/25 Update:   "As all trends are up, we need a clear reversal lower no later than tomorrow (6/24) to confirm this"

We finally saw a nice reversal lower yesterday, confirming a short term High is in.
We need to see a follow through decline to get a larger decline going.

Monday, June 2, 2014

The next major Time and Cycle Cluster

Review: In my last post, I was looking for a 5/22-23 High, based on the 5/22 Solar Time CIT (Change in Trend), but as soon as we rallied beyond 5/23, we knew right away, it was a rare miss as Solar CIT’s are maximum +/- 1 Trading Day (TD). Solar CITs have an unusual high 85-90% accuracy, but at times they have 10-15% misses.

The next major Time and Cycle (T&C) cluster is 5/30-6/3, centered on Monday 6/2, which is 1 TD from the Friday 5/30 Geo CITs, Sunday 6/1 is Solar CIT, 6/2 is a Time Square CIT (see below) and 6/3 Calendar to Trading Days CIT. 

The 35 TD +/-1 Cycle (click on chart to enlarge) is due on 6/3+/-1: 8/2/13H-9/19H-11/13L-12/31H-2/20/14L-4/11/14L-6/03/14H+/-.  There is a 207 TD Bank Cycle due on 6/2 +/-. There is also an hourly time CIT focused on the 1st hour of Monday 6/2.

Squares in Trading days CITs
The squares in Trading Days CIT is a Square of 9 timing technique that gives very
precise Change in Trends (CIT), all dates are +/-1 TD.

Red Lines are Square of 9 mostly Lows from 10/11/07H, the most recent one is 6/2 and should be a High.

1. 10/11/07H - 11/16/12L = 1285 Trading Days (TD), take the Square root of 1285 and
you get: 35.85^2 (35.85 squared)

Now increment that number by 1 or 2 each time and re square to get future CITs:
2. 35.85+2 = 37.85^2 = 1433 TD + 10/11/07H = 6/24/13L
3. 35.85+3 = 38.85^2 = 1509 TD + 10/11/07H = 10/10/13L-1
4. 35.85+4 = 39.85^2 = 1588 TD + 10/11/07H = 02/05/14L +1
5. 35.85 +5 =49.85^2 = 1669 TD + 10/11/07H = 06/02/14+/-1

Blue Lines are Square of 9 Highs from 10/11/07H.
Notice the increment is +2 each time on those lines
04/02/12H = 1127 TD = 33.57^2
10/18/12H = 1266 TD = 35.58^2
05/22/13H = 1412 TD = 37.58^2
12/31/13H = 1566 TD = 39.57^2

Calendar Days to Trading Days relationship in the market causes CITs.
10/4/11L: + 52 CD = 11/25/11L, + 53 TD = 12/19/11L
+181 CD = 04/02/12H, +182 TD = 06/25/12L
+241 CD = 06/01/12L, + 239 TD = 09/14/12H
+346 CD = 09/14/12H, +345 TD = 02/20/13H
+409 CD = 11/16/12L, + 409 TD = 05/22/13H
+454 CD = 12/31/12L, + 459 TD = 08/02/13H
+511 CD = 2/26/13L, + 506 TD = 10/09/13L
+596 CD = 5/22/13H, + 596 TD = 02/20/14 = 2/20/14L
+629 CD = 6/24/13L + 629 TD = 04/04/14H -1
+668 CD = 08/02/13H, +668 TD = 06/03/14+/-1

What’s next: We have rallied into the current T&C Cluster, centered on 6/2, suggesting a major swing High forming, which should be followed by a decline into the next Time and Cycle Cluster Low.