Saturday, August 2, 2014

The Flash Crash Cycle is due in August 2014

http://www.safehaven.com/article/34713/the-flash-crash-cycle-is-due-in-august-2014

In my last post, I was looking for a 7/24-25 High. http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2014/07/raj-time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast.html

Actual: We made a 7/24 major High and saw a sharp 75.02 SP decline into Friday's Lows.


The 5/6/10 mini Crash became known as the Flash Crash. I discovered this cycle back in 2010, when the Flash Crash occurred, which is why I named it the Flash crash cycle. This Cycle has been in the markets ever since the crash of 4/14/00 Low. I was amazed, when I first discovered this cycle to find it was a perfect 360 Trading Days (TD) Cycle, like the 360 degrees of a Circle (Cycle), it suggested that this fixed Cycle was found at major turning points.

The Flash Crash (FC) Cycle is a fixed 75 wk/525CD/360 TD (degree) Cycle that is next due Mid to Late August 2014.



04/14/00L -358- 9/21/01L - 369/77- 3/12/03L -359 - 8/13/04L- 1078 (3X 360
=1080) - 11/21/08L-356-4/26/10H-364-10/4/11L-720-8/15/14+/-

Some of the 525 CD/75 week cycle Lows were major Panic Lows, like the 4/14/00 Low, 9/21/01 Panic Low and the 11/21/08 banking crisis Low, although some were not all that "flashy", like the 3/12/03 Low and 8/13/04 Low, but still they were major Lows.
The Flash Crash cycle in details
04/14/00L - 09/21/01L = 525 CD = 75 weeks = 2.618 X 200 CD = 523.6
04/14/00L - 03/12/03L = 1062 CD = 2.02 X 525 CD = 03/12/03 Major Low
04/14/00L - 08/13/04L = 1582 CD = 3.01 X 525 CD = 08/13/04 Major Low
04/14/00L - 11/21/08L = 3143 CD = 5.99 X 525 CD = 11/21/08 Major Low,
04/14/00L - 05/06/10L = 3674 CD = 7.00 X 525 CD = 05/06/10 flash Crash,
04/14/00L - 10/14/11 = 4200 CD = 7.98 X 525 CD = 10/04/11L, Major Low.
04/14/00L -08/29/14 = 5250 CD = 10.00X 525 CD = 08/29/14 +/-

7 out of 10 FC Cycles saw 7%-26% (avg 12-14%) declines and most are in 2-3 wks
03/24/00H - 04/14/00L was a 14% decline in 3 weeks
08/31/01H - 09/21/01L was a 20% decline in 3 weeks
01/31/13H - 03/12/03L was a 16% decline in 8 weeks
06/24/04H - 08/13/04L was a 7% decline in 7 weeks
11/04/08H - 11/21/08L was a 26% decline in 3 weeks
4/26/10H - 05/06/10L was a 12% decline in 3 weeks
9/16/11H - 10/04/11L was a 12% decline in 2 weeks

7 out of 10 (70%) of the Flash Crash 360 TD/75 week Cycles saw sharp 12-14% declines, (3 did not see any decline) mostly in 2-3 weeks some time in August 2014 Lows. Some were not "flashy", like the 3/12/03L and 8/13/04L, but were still major Lows.

Perfect (exact) 360 TD (degrees) Harmonics all due in August 2014!
04/14/00L + 3600 TD (10 X 360 TD)= 08/11/14
09/21/01L + 3240 TD ( 9 X 360 TD) = 08/07/14
03/12/03L + 2880 TD (8 X 360 TD) = 08/20/14
08/13/04L + 2520 TD (7 X 360 TD) = 08/19/14
11/21/08L + 1440 TD (4 X 360 TD) = 08/15/14
05/06/10L + 1080 TD (3 X 360 TD) = 08/21/14
10/04/11L +  720 TD (2 X 360 TD) = 08/15/14

It is interesting that so many (7) 360 TD degree Harmonics are all due in August 2014.

The Flash Crash Cycle is a fixed cycle that can expand or contract and will have its misses (3), but if you study it carefully, when they do work, you'll see some amazing accuracies in Trading Days (TD), that are off maximum 1-4 TD variance from the 360 TD Cycle (Circle, degrees):

1. 04/14/00L - 358 TD- 09/21/01L, +2 TD = 360
2. 03/12/03L - 359 TD- 08/13/04L, +1 TD = 360
3. 08/13/04L -1078 TD-11/21/08L, +2 TD = 360 X 3
4. 11/21/08L - 364 TD -05/06/10L, +4 TD = 360
5. 05/06/10L - 356 TD -10/04/11L, -4 TD = 360
6. 11/21/08L - 720 TD - 10/04/11L, -0 TD = 360 X 2
7. 08/16/07L - 723 TD - 07/01/10L, -3 TD = 360 X 2

The best way to use this Flash Crash cycle is with other Time and Cycle techniques and they are a few other reliable timing techniques to help pinpoint the exact date for the Low, whether it crashes or not, the date for the low in August is already marked on my calendar.

Conclusion Flash Crash (FC) cycle: The next Flash Crash cycle is due Mid to late August Lows. 7 out of 10 Flash Crash 360 TD Cycles saw sharp 12-14% declines (3 of them were off or did not see any declines), mostly in 2-3 weeks some time in August 2014 Lows. Please note some were not "flashy", like the 3/12/03L and 8/13/04L, but were still major Lows.  If the Flash Crash Cycle is active, we will see a swift 2-3 week, minimum 7% to average 12% decline most likely into the August major Lows.

12 comments:

G. said...

Hello,

This was really a genius observation !!!

Thanks for sharing!

Gabriella

Michael Cook said...

Is your expected crash date the "start", or the culmination" of it? I ask because we have already had a ~3.5% decline already and if this is factored into your prediction? Thx.

i Bergamot said...

Thanks for update

jj914 said...

Appears market has gained stability with an upward bias.
Are u starting to believe the crash cycle is NOT active.

thanks for your posts.

infome said...

Crash is still active..

dc-BEAR said...

it's not looking very active...maybe after we hit 2000...of course, by then it's just called a wave down

infome said...

new high lol

Raj Time and Cycles said...

will post an update soon

Flow5 said...

2014's flash crash is due a couple of days before 10/1/2014 (you can take that to the bank - I'm the best market timer in history.

andre van Staveren said...

Sept 18th will be a significant top.

That puts the flashcrash between 18 and 'a couple of days before nov 1'

Most likely : sept 22nd (start of 3rd wave down after the high on 18).

andre van Staveren said...

Sorry; should be oct 1st.

Wong Y T said...

There is a free article:

FLASH CRASH EXPLAINED which unveiles the mystery.

To view, please click:
https://www.smashwords.com/extreader/read/501712/2/flash-crash-explained