Monday, June 2, 2014

The next major Time and Cycle Cluster

http://www.safehaven.com/article/34019/the-next-major-time-and-cycle-cluster

Review: In my last post, I was looking for a 5/22-23 High, based on the 5/22 Solar Time CIT (Change in Trend), but as soon as we rallied beyond 5/23, we knew right away, it was a rare miss as Solar CIT’s are maximum +/- 1 Trading Day (TD). Solar CITs have an unusual high 85-90% accuracy, but at times they have 10-15% misses.

The next major Time and Cycle (T&C) cluster is 5/30-6/3, centered on Monday 6/2, which is 1 TD from the Friday 5/30 Geo CITs, Sunday 6/1 is Solar CIT, 6/2 is a Time Square CIT (see below) and 6/3 Calendar to Trading Days CIT. 


The 35 TD +/-1 Cycle (click on chart to enlarge) is due on 6/3+/-1: 8/2/13H-9/19H-11/13L-12/31H-2/20/14L-4/11/14L-6/03/14H+/-.  There is a 207 TD Bank Cycle due on 6/2 +/-. There is also an hourly time CIT focused on the 1st hour of Monday 6/2.

Squares in Trading days CITs
The squares in Trading Days CIT is a Square of 9 timing technique that gives very
precise Change in Trends (CIT), all dates are +/-1 TD.


Red Lines are Square of 9 mostly Lows from 10/11/07H, the most recent one is 6/2 and should be a High.

1. 10/11/07H - 11/16/12L = 1285 Trading Days (TD), take the Square root of 1285 and
you get: 35.85^2 (35.85 squared)

Now increment that number by 1 or 2 each time and re square to get future CITs:
2. 35.85+2 = 37.85^2 = 1433 TD + 10/11/07H = 6/24/13L
3. 35.85+3 = 38.85^2 = 1509 TD + 10/11/07H = 10/10/13L-1
4. 35.85+4 = 39.85^2 = 1588 TD + 10/11/07H = 02/05/14L +1
5. 35.85 +5 =49.85^2 = 1669 TD + 10/11/07H = 06/02/14+/-1

Blue Lines are Square of 9 Highs from 10/11/07H.
Notice the increment is +2 each time on those lines
04/02/12H = 1127 TD = 33.57^2
10/18/12H = 1266 TD = 35.58^2
05/22/13H = 1412 TD = 37.58^2
12/31/13H = 1566 TD = 39.57^2

Calendar Days to Trading Days relationship in the market causes CITs.
10/4/11L: + 52 CD = 11/25/11L, + 53 TD = 12/19/11L
+181 CD = 04/02/12H, +182 TD = 06/25/12L
+241 CD = 06/01/12L, + 239 TD = 09/14/12H
+346 CD = 09/14/12H, +345 TD = 02/20/13H
+409 CD = 11/16/12L, + 409 TD = 05/22/13H
+454 CD = 12/31/12L, + 459 TD = 08/02/13H
+511 CD = 2/26/13L, + 506 TD = 10/09/13L
+596 CD = 5/22/13H, + 596 TD = 02/20/14 = 2/20/14L
+629 CD = 6/24/13L + 629 TD = 04/04/14H -1
+668 CD = 08/02/13H, +668 TD = 06/03/14+/-1

What’s next: We have rallied into the current T&C Cluster, centered on 6/2, suggesting a major swing High forming, which should be followed by a decline into the next Time and Cycle Cluster Low.

10 comments:

qichengm said...

Hi Raj, nice analysis. Could you please share with us when the next low is due? --Thanks.

Daniel Almeida said...

with a big POMO tomorrow how can this market even correct..

Raj Time and Cycles said...

qichengm, I will post it when it arrives.

Daniel, Pomo or not, we should head lower soon.

H2535 said...

This looks like a very stong Bull market that nothing can stop it, even when goes done will comes back up very soon.

Daniel Almeida said...

Raj, we need volatility for markets to tank, we need major event for this. ECB + 3B POMO on thursday, or NFP might be what we are looking for, if i remember, last 3 NFP days market sold off

i can't see market going down too much on expectations of more easing to come, but i can expect a sell on the news

Daniel Almeida said...

invalidated ?

Joe Pitt said...

Raj,

SPX made another Higher High, what's now? are we still on track? thanks

Joe

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Hi Daniel and Joe, yes, we have rallied beyond that date, so it was a miss.

All trends are up, but short term, there is still a pullback due...

Raj Time and Cycles said...

The only rare reason, the markets can and do ignore any T&C cluster is in strong (3rd wave) rally phases (or decline), as the bullish momentum is so strong that it overrides the CIT.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

The 6/2-3 cluster and 35 TD Cycle was a minor Low instead of a High.