Monday, June 23, 2014

Time and Cycle Review and Forecast

http://www.safehaven.com/article/34287/time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast


Review: The 6/2 T&C Cluster CIT from my last public post was a minor 6/2 Low.
We didn’t see any reversal lower, so shorts were not triggered.

Forecast from the June 7 weekend report: “Odds are good we will see higher highs Monday, 6/9. A couple of arguments for a 6/6-9 swing High: 1. Fibo: 10/11/07H-4/26/10H= 928 X 2.618 = 2430 CD +10/11/07H = 6/6/14. 2. The 423 hourly Cycle is due near the close 6/6 to open 6/9. 3. Mercury goes Retrograde on 6/7, often a CIT. From this 6/6-9 High, we should see a brief sharp decline into 6/11 Solar CIT. We expect a decent pullback of at least 30 SP’s (1930 SPX) to even 50+ SP’s to the 1900 SPX+/-10 area, before we bottom.”

Actual: We made a 6/9 swing High and saw a 30 SP decline into 6/12 Solar CIT Low of the week, before the rally into Option Expiration week.

Forecast from the June 19 report: “The 6/22 Solar CIT (change in Trend) is biased to be a 6/23 High and  targets major Long term channel resistance at 1966-68 SPX.”

Actual: We rallied into Monday 6/23 High, with an intraday Friday High of 1963.91 SPX so far.



The 35 week cycle has produced major Highs and Lows in the last 5 years: 3/6/09L-35 week-
11/2/09L-34-7/1/10L-33-2/18/11H-33-10/4/11L-35-6/4/12L-38-2/28/13-32-10/9/13L-37-6/27/14+/-.

The 333 TD/69 wks/484 Cycle has produced major Highs and Lows since the last 8 years :  
7/18/06L-325 TD-10/31/07H-338-3/06/09L-332-07/01/10L-335-10/27/11H-332-2/26/13L-333 TD-
6/23/14+/-.  The 333 TD or 69 wk cycle is double the 35 wk cycle and suggests a major CIT around 6/23/14+/- week.

What’s next: We make a 6/23 swing High. As all trends are up, we need a clear reversal lower no later than tomorrow to confirm this. We will then decline into my next upcoming Time Square, Geometric and Solar CIT major Cluster.




6/25 Update:   "As all trends are up, we need a clear reversal lower no later than tomorrow (6/24) to confirm this"

We finally saw a nice reversal lower yesterday, confirming a short term High is in.
We need to see a follow through decline to get a larger decline going.
 

5 comments:

Daniel Almeida said...

seems kind of reversal afternoon today. SPY closed rebalancing GAP and now plunging.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

"As all trends are up, we need a clear reversal lower no later than tomorrow (6/24) to confirm this"

We finally saw a nice reversal lower yesterday, confirming a short term High is in.
We need to see a follow through decline to get a larger decline going.

kenny cheung said...

I use both Gann's Square of Nine and Hexagon chart to apply my theory on time and price balance. Based on this, June 24, 2013 low to June 24, 2014 high is 252 TD and 407.84 points. Time and price balances on June 24, 2014. That should be a good call for a temporarily top. Besides, it is also an anniversary date.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Thanks Kenny,

Sounds good, let's see if it works.

Suren said...

Hi Raj:

Any take on the Mars-Rahu conjunction next week?

Suren