Friday, August 22, 2014

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast

http://www.safehaven.com/article/34902/raj-time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast


In my last 8/2 public post, I mentioned: “The Flash Crash Cycle is a fixed cycle that can expand or contract and will have its misses (3 out of 10) and is due in August”

From my 8/2 Daily Email: “Short term, the bias is 8/1 was a Low and we should see an oversold rally into 8/5 Highs at the 8/5 double Geo CIT, 8/5 Solar CIT and 8/5 Solar CIT High, before we see a sharper decline into Monday 8/11 Geo and Cycle CIT and rally into 8/15 Geo CIT Option Expiration (OE) week High…The Flash Crash cycle gets triggered only below 1883 SPX”

From the 8/8 Email Update: “This week (Aug 4-8) is the Week before Option Expiration week (WBOE) and should be an 8/8 Low, before we rally into OE crook’s week at the 8/15-18 CIT. Swing traders should lower their stop to 1946 SPX and/or cover their shorts by 8/8, as OE crook's week is around the corner.”
Actual: We saw an 8/1 Low and a brief rally into 8/4 High at the 8/5 CIT. We declined into 8/7 Geo CIT and Friday 8/8 Globex Low, 1 Trading Day before the 8/11 CIT. Swing traders shorts from 7/25 were covered for a good 50-60 SP profit on 8/8L and swingtraders who went long on 8/8-11 also booked a 25-40 SP profits as we rallied strongly into OE 8/15 week as expected and beyond. The 8/15-18 CIT was the 8/15 Low. The FC cycle never got triggered as we didn’t get to the 1883 SPX Make or Break support.

What’s next: 

From the 8/21 Email: The 8/21 Long and short term double Geo CIT, the 8/24 Solar CIT and 8/22-25 Time square is the next major CIT Cluster to watch and should be an  8/21-25 major High.”
Actual: We are rallying into the 8/21-25 major Time and Cycle Cluster CIT suggesting a major High is due soon.


We have rallied into the 361 TD FC Cycle (see chart) and into the 8/21-25 major T&C Cluster suggesting an important 8/21-25 major High forming, before a sharp decline starts. Also the 30 week cycle due around this time:  The 30 week cycle: 7/8/09L -212/30- 2/5/10L -207- 8/27/10L -201- 3/16/11L -202- 10/04/11L -210/30- 5/1/12H -210/30- 11/27/12L(-11) -210/30- 6/25/13L -210- 1/21/14-213 = 8/22/14+/-week.

8/21-25 is the next major Time CIT Cluster to watch:
1. The Long Term Geometric CIT since the 3/6/09 Low and a short term Geometric CIT is due on 8/21+/-1.
2. The next Solar CIT is This weekend 8/24.
3. 8/22-25 is next major Time Square CIT from 10/11/07H.

Long term geometric CIT is due on Thursday 8/21***

Time Squares of Highs from 10/11/07
10/11/07 - 4/2/12 High =  1127 TD = 33.56 Squared
10/11/07 - 10/17/12 High = 1265 TD = 35.56^2
10/11/07 - 5/21/13 High = 1411 TD = 37.56^2
10/11/07 -12/31/13 High = 1566 TD =39.57^2
41.56 = 1727 TD = 8/22/14 High next!
41.57 = 1728 TD = 8/25/14

The last 3 Time Squares from 10/11/07H has all been major Highs (blue lines) and the next one due on 8/22-25 and should also be a major High. If correct, we will see a relative sharp decline as the last 3 declines averaged 120 SP’s into a major Low, based on another Time square series from 10/11/07H that has all been major Lows (Red Lines on chart).

Please note as these public posts are an excerpt, they will not include all the information needed. To trade these T&C clusters CIT, we follow one simple rule: As all trends are up, swing traders should short only when we see a clear reversal and close lower. Once the Highs are in, there will be plenty of time to get short and always place a stop at those Highs.

8 comments:

andre van Staveren said...

Thanks; great analysis.

jj914 said...

Thanks Ian....even though I was hoping you would be more positive.

120 S&P points down is about 6% which is slightly more that last two or three pullbacks this year.

I appreciate your updates

andre van Staveren said...

The 2/4/14 low plus 199 cd's points to 8/22/14.

199 is a lucas number.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Thanks Andre and JJ914.
The Highs could already be in, but
3 X 666 = 1998 CD, it would be nice to see a 1998 SPX Price on 8/25/14.
3/6/09 Low at 666 SPX + 1998 CD = 8/25/14 at 1998 SPX

dc-BEAR said...

yep...only the Lord 'knows' the future. Everyone else is just making an educated guess...with some charging far more than others...

jj914 said...

Market running out of gas but still holding gains.

Ian...could this be another 1987 type market?

Joe Pitt said...

any pullbacks should be bought! of course at support level. shorts need to act quickly if they want to make some $$$.


Joe!

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Markets are in the summer duldrums,going sideways, probably into Laborday weekend. Shorts have not been triggered in this environment, subs are flat for now.

DCbear, Wrt fees, you need to do a simple Cost Benefit analysis and ask, is $3-5/Day worth the Investment? In other words, Can you make just 3 Emini SP's in a month @ $50/point to cover the cost of the subscription? The fact is many do just that and they make much more. Can you end up saving and making hundreds or even thousands of dollars with the information provided? The answer is yes for many. This information and style of trading is not for everyone and I do warn the Option gunslingers to stay away from risky Investments as this is not a get rich quick method.

Bets of Luck.