Friday, April 20, 2012

The 139 Cycle Low, the next Solar CIT and the Gold Markets

In my last post, I mentioned 4/10 Solar CIT (Change in Trend) Low.

From that 4/10 Low, the T&C prediction in my daily Email was for "lots of volatility, but the Time & Cycle bias remains: 4/9-10 Low, 4/12 High, 4/16 Low, 4/17 High, 4/20 Low"

Result: We saw a volatile week, with an actual 4/10L, 4/12H, 4/16L and 4/17H and we are now declining into 4/20-23 Lows.

Here is an excerpt from last week's email, predicting a 4/20-23 major swing Low:

"The reliable 139 TD Cycle of Lows: 2/5/10 Low – 139TD – 8/27/10 Low – 139 TD – 3/16/11 Low -140- 10/4/11L -139- 4/20-23 Low.

The 139 Cycle suggested an 4/2 High, which we saw and a general decline into 4/20 Solar CIT Lows. There is a 188 TD Cycle (green) due in early May 2012.

The 2X1 Trendline from the 8/9/11 Lows (above TL) has been major resistance in this rally. There is also bearish RSI divergence since the 1st week of February.

A closer look at the 139 cycle of Lows:

1. 1/19/10 High into 2/05/10 Lows was 105.95 SP decline and a 38% retrace in 17 CD.

2. 8/09/10 High into 8/27/10 Lows was 89.54 SP decline in 18 CD (CD =
Calendar Days).
3. 2/18/11 & 3/1/11 High into 3/16/11 Lows was 95.02 SP decline in 26 and 15 CD.
4. 9/16/11 High into 10/04/11 Low was 145.62 SP decline in 18 CD.

The average CD decline from the Highs to the Lows was 17-18 CD, so calculating from the 4/20/12 Low, it suggested an 4/2-3 High, which we saw an 18 CD decline into 4/20 Low.

The next Solar CIT (Change in Trend)
This 4/20-23 Cycle Low is further supported by today's 4/20 Solar CIT and Monday's 4/23 geometric CIT.

Note: Globex is +6.00 at the moment, but this is OE day and there is a 9.45 CIT, that suggests a 9.45 High. The intraday cycle also suggests a 1st hour High. Daily cycles above suggests a lower low today.

The Stockmarkets are closely related to Gold, so let's take a brief look at Gold.

The monthly Gold (pit) (click on chart to enlarge) is in a steep up channel since November 2008 Major Lows, which is the 3rd steepest Trendline. We are hovering and closed right at critical up channel support at the 1640 area. Any solid break below this long term Up channel support is bearish. The monthly Gold has 2 monthly CITs to watch: July 2012 and April 2013.

The weekly Gold has a 91 week cycle that is next due in June 2013. First support on any channel break is at the green TL support around 1550.

The daily Gold is hanging on a thread as it has been creeping along its long term up channel support in a short term green down channel. We are right at Make or Break support levels and would need to rally soon or risk further downside acceleration.
The daily Gold CITs are: 4/25, 5/4, 5/11, 7/12


snoopy said...

what does CD stand for-I understand the other intials Or is there a glossary on site ?? Thanks

Raj Time and Cycles said...

CD = Calendar Days

Silverlady said...

Hi Raj,

You said 4/20-/4/23 is swing low. does it means that we will have a bounce starting on monday? thanks

Unknown said...

Unless the 4/20 Solar CIT was a swing high, and the 4/23 Geometric CIT, being 1 TD late, was also a swing high. If today's low is broken in the near future, it would suggest a further decline into the next CIT date IMO.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Silverlady, 4/23+/-1 should be a Low date from where a rally starts.

unknown, We have declined into the 4/20-23 CIT and cycles suggests an 4/23 Low.

Anonymous said...

Raj we actually went up on 4/20 and then down into today. Isn't it possible we saw the high on 4/20?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Mouth, what I look for is a daily High or Low that stands out, but CITs are one part of the equation, active cycles is the other part.

Combining both, we have declined into 4/23 CIT Low, we now need to a sharper reversal to confirm the Low is in

Anonymous said...

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Raj Time and Cycles said...

Mouth:"Raj just want to say great job and thanks for sharing with those of us that can't afford the premium service. You saved me lots of losses this week"

Thanks Mouth, but is a subscription really that expensive? Currently at $37.50/week, which is about $7.50/Trading Day, you have to objectively analyze the Cost Benefit:

Is $7.50/day worth the hundreds or even thousands of dollars you saved?

It is your choice.