Tuesday, February 26, 2013

The Flash Crash Cycle is coming soon


The 5/6/10 mini Crash became known as the Flash Crash.

What only a few people know is that this Cycle has been in the markets ever since the Flash crash of 4/14/00.


The next potential Flash Crash is coming soon.

When exactly?  In March 2013

Are you ready for it? 
 
If Yes, then enjoy the ride!
 
If No, then get prepared and enjoy the ride!
 
My next blog post will be after the Flash Crash cycle Low.

24 comments:

john said...

cool

Suren said...

What is the probability of a FLASH CRASH coming? We were supposed to have one in Oct. 2011 which never came.

Most of the short trades were cancelled anyways later on. How can you capitalize if it materializes, if the trade is going to get canceled by the SSEC?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Suren, that is a good question,

Not all are flashy, but you are aware that we lost a whopping 145 SP's in 2 weeks from 9/2011H to 10/4/11L. If that is not worth trading, then I don't know what is!

Marketguy said...

Raj, how can you have a "cycle" with 1 instance (ie., the 05/10 flash crash)?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Marketguy, The cycle has been in the market since 4/14/00 Crash Lows.

Marketguy said...

bold call bud....any estimate on early or later in the month?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

It is in March sometime

Suren said...

I was refering to the 5/6/10 Flash Crash where trades were cancelled by the SEC. Here DOW dropped a 1,000 points within minutes.

I would not put the 9/20/11 to 10/3/11 as a Flash Crash. It was a market correction.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

That is right Suren,

I am not only referring to the 5/6/10 FC day, but to the entire FC Cycle, the 1-3 weeks (or more) surrounding that day.

There is a definite FC Cycle lasting weeks, which is due again in March 2013.

Suren said...

Damn good call on the decline and then new high. DOW hit a new high today although Nasdaq & SPX did not. Merriman calls this intermarket bearishness.

I am looking forward to the weeks of 15-20% FC/correction.

bob said...

has all flash crash cycle outcome been declines in the past years?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Hi Bob,

5 out of 7 were declines, 2 were not

Marketguy said...

Raj, do you think the flash crash low is also going to be in March (or just the initial decline)?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Correction:

7 out of 9 were declines, 2 were not.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Marketguy, it is most likely in March, then we rally again

Marketguy said...

lol, at this rate the flash crash will be from 1600 :-)

bob said...

Feb after the election is usually a negative month so I guess that can add to the theory of a Flash crash

bob said...

since this Feb is looking like a positive month to me the Flash crash should correct this in March. Just my 2 cents

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Marketguy, the market is unfolding as it should.

The only question there is how mcuh can the FED control any decline here.

http://www.mcoscillator.com/images/uploads/POMO_Cumulative_600px.gif

This chart of Tom McClellan shows why in general we don't fight the FED.

Notice how the FED pumped lots of Dollars starting 12/31/12 Lows.

qichengm said...

Hi Raj,

If it were FED to buy the market, why commercial would short ES ands SP1 as shown here,

http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/SP.png

and

http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/ES.png

Thanks,

Raj Time and Cycles said...

qichengm,

I don't know why the comercials are net short, but the FED has made a
QE3 Sep 2012 Announcement: Fed Announces 40 Billion Dollars in Monthly MBS Purchases, ZIRP Through 2015

http://www.policymic.com/articles/14668/qe3-announcement-fed-announces-40-billion-dollars-in-monthly-mbs-purchases-zirp-through-2015

Marketguy said...

flash crash huh Raj? looks alot more like a blow off top (or maybe it just keeps going).

Raj Time and Cycles said...

MarketGuy,

Subscribers were long into today's rally from 3/1 Low, perhaps I should update and review the recent action.

bob said...

it is like I feel the crash cycle coming on as the optimism is way to high right now