Wednesday, February 13, 2013

The Master Cycle Update

Forecast from the 2/2 weekend Email Forecast: "The active Master Cycle 2 (MC2)is overall bullish, and suggests from a 2/2H, a pullback into 2/7L and then a rally into 2/12-13H" 

Actual: In general, the markets unfolded as expected (yellow lines on chart, click on chart to enlarge), we made a 2/1 High, saw a choppy decline into 2/7 Low and rallied into 2/13 Highs.

The NDX (click on chart to enlarge) has been in a relative narrow sideways channel since 1/2/13 High for 1 1/2 months now. A break above or below this range will determine the next major direction. There is a NDX  37 TD Cycle that was due today 2/13 +/-.

What's next? The Bull market has been relentless and has had its number of Top pickers along the way. The Master Cycle outlook suggest the market tops on 2/13-14, but holds its own until Option Expiration, then is looking for a decline and again another rally to fresh 5 year higher highs and then we are in a potential FLASH CRASH Cycle. It should get interesting at that time.


Suren said...

MC2 inaccurate calling a top on 2/14?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Hi Suren,

2/14 was not THE High. I was looking for merely a short term pullback and then another rally into higher Highs.

That said, The MC2 didn't see a higher High that quickly, so it is a little off.

steve said...

so is/was today THE high?


Trendtrader said...

I think is equal the high is today or is tomorrow or in next week.
A trader needs volatile market.
Is equal when raj mc cycle say a high on 14 or a low on ... When the markets have a range from 10-20 points.

All we need is volatility volatility we need.
So please

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Steve,here is what I told subscribers in the 2/16 weekend report:

""The markets most likely have seen a 2/13 Solar CIT and Master Cycle2 5th wave High, but we still we can not rule out 1 minor 5th wave higher in the coming week. Bullish momentum remains strong and all trends remains up"

We saw that higher High on 2/19H and we are now in a down phase, that should be relatively fast, and should surprise many.

My next update will explain the various Time and Cycles.

Trendtrader said...

Yes, it looks much better.
Right now Raj CITs are much more important as the days before.
With intraday cit you can make more gains as days before in a week.

Thanks a lot raj for your cit.

Regards from cold Europe... Trendtrader

Unknown said...

Do you think we have seen the high for the next month or two? We should bottom by the end of March, don't you think?

Suren said...

VIX high for the year is forecasted by Charles Nenner to be in the month of April. Martin Armstrong also says that volatility will increase in March & April. Low likely in April for the markets, even for metals.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Trendtrader, that is correct.

The market is like this incredible complicated puzzle.

Timing methods helps find the Highs and Los.

Cycle Methods pinpoint when the next high and Low is.

then there is Elliott waves that should be used only to match those Time and Cycles, otherwise it becomes too subjective.

Next is Solar Prices, Tunnel Price Targets, Fibonacci, geometry, etc. to find Price targets.

Also statistics is another tool everyone should be using, when you have a 90% odds of a market being below or above a certain prize, that info is helpful.

There are many pieces to the market puzzle

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Unknown, just curious, what do you have that suggest we should bottom end of March?

Unknown said...

525 CD flash crash cycle. Maybe not "The" bottom, but at least the end of the peak momentum then a possible bounce higher and a retest later. Not sure how it will play out. It could actually be the bottom. Who knows?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

You are an alert student unknown ;0)