Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Review and Update on the Flash Crash Statistics

Review of the last week: Monday 2/25 evening report: “There are still good statistical indications that we should be higher than the January Month (1496 SPX) and > 1502 SPX by 2/28, in 3 TD, which in turn gives a 90% chance we close UP for 2013. This suggests we should see a short term bottom today or in the next day (2/25-26L) and see an oversold rally into 2/28. Conclusion: The current bias is 2/25L, 2/28H, 3/1-4L

Actual: The markets bottomed on 2/26L, rallied into 2/28H and declined into 3/1L.

From last night's Email:  "Various Cycles, including the Flash Crash analog suggests a rally into 3/5-6H"

Actual: From the 3/1 Low we rallied into today as expected and made fresh 5 year Highs.

What's next?:  Ideally we see "a" High today or (less likely) tomorrow. Today is the next geometric CIT and Midpoint of MeR and MeD. Also I have a regular 115 TD Cycle that is due today.

The 115 TD Cycle also has  3/05/13

6/8/10L -112- 11/16/10L -114- 5/2/11H -2X116- 4/2/12H -115- 9/14/12H -115- 3/5/13H

7/7/11H -115- 12/19/11L -114- 6/4/12L -115- 11/16/12L - 114 - 5/3/13

9/1/00H + 3141 TD (Pi)
= 3/05/13

I had some question on this blog wrt the Flash crash Cycle. Here are some of the statistics on it:
7 out of 9 (78%) of the Flash Crash Cycles saw sharp 12% declines, 2 of 9, 22% did not see any decline.


Suren said...


You stated that the next blog post will be AFTER the Flash Crash low. You posted today! I sure hope that the Flash Crash window has NOT elapsed?

Raj Time and Cycles said...


The window is still open as we still have 3-4 weeks left in March. It is still early in the Cycle.

People were asking what happened to the FC Cycle, so I had to update to let them know that everything remains on track.

Alex Red said...

There was only 1 flash crash in May 2010. Why did you say 9 occurrences?

Thank you

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Hi Alex,

That is a good question. Here is my explanation:

The 5/6/10 mini Crash became known as the Flash Crash. I discovered this cycle in 2010, when the Flash Crash occurred, which is why I named it the Flash crash cycle. This Cycle has been in the markets ever since the crash of 4/14/00 Low.

The Cycle I am referring to sees an average of 12% decline,due in the Month of March, the minimum was a 7% decline.

Trendtrader said...

hi, i have a high around March 21.
The Price Target should be at 1600 Points.

Best regards

Marketguy said...

nice chart raj...I remembered that one from November (sure was dead on then!).

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Thanks Trendtrader, I have 3/21 is CIT date.

Marketguy, Yes, there are 2 cycles of the 115 TD Cycle, the next is due early May

stocks2trade said...


Are we still in the "less likely" scenario where we top today?

stocks2trade said...


Do you think we still on the "less likely" scenario that we top today?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

stocks2trade, We can even see a spillover rally tomorrow. As long as we don't see any signs of a reversal lower, the trend will remain up.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Let me explain a little more.

I mentioned I am looking for "a" 3/5-6 High. This implies it may not be "the" High and we could even see higher Highs in the coming days.

Trading against the trend is like swimming upstream. You need to be a good and experienced swimmer to do that.

You might want to wait for some confirmations first.

bob said...

the market is like an energizer bunny it keeps going and going higher

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Bob, it is certainly not over.

I have a quadruple CIT in March that I believe will be "the" High

Suren said...

Do you mean "the" high for the year or a short term high before a correction start?

Tom DeMark is calling for "the" high in april.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Suren, I mean the High before the correction starts.

As posted on the blog, I am bullish and looking for a solid up close for 2013, corrections notwithstanding

Unknown said...


Do you expect the high within a week, and how much of a correction are you expecting?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

The High should be in the next 1-3 weeks, as the FC Cycle is a long term fixed cycle, it is not exact, there is a variance of a few weeks. The decline could then spillover into April