1. Welcome to the Raj T&C Free week for Day traders only.
Success in trading requires not only useful and accurate knowledge, but tremendous amount of discipline and Money Management as well.
2. Intraday Cycle Review and Forecasts 12/12/13 and forecast for the coming week
Review & Forecasts
Time Review: “Intraday 5 min SPX CIT 12/11/13: 10.10, 10.55, 11.45, 1.20 pm Eastern”
Actual: 10.10 low, 11.05 High, 11.45 High, 1.30 Low
Cycle Review: “Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: Inversion day 79% 10.20L, 11.40H, 68/32% 1.00L/H, 2.00H/L, 3.40L/H Wednesday sees an Inversion day with a 79% chance we see a 10.20 cycle Low at either the 10.10 or 10.55 CIT, rally to a 11.40 cycle High at the 11.45 CIT, then there is a 68% chance we see a 3.40L and a 32% chance we invert.”
Actual: 9.35HOD, 10.30L 11.05H, 12.30L, 2.00H, 3.50LOD The intraday cycle saw a last hour Low. Thursday sees a High am to Low pm day (or Inverse).
Intraday Times and cycles for Thursday 12/12/13.
Notes: There is the intraday cycle (Cyan lines) and the intraday Time Change in Trend (CIT) (pink vertical lines on 5 min chart) to watch.
The proprietary timing turning points are my own discovery. They work 70-80% of the time, sometimes they are exact, other times they are off by 5-10 min or 20-30% they don't work at all.
The intraday cycle is a proprietary 4 CD cycle that I learned from a Delta Master. Elliott waves shown are only a tool to explain both the longer and shorter term cycle’s direction in my work.
Intraday 5 min SPX CIT (Change in Trend) Times are the red vertical lines 12/12/13: 11.55, 12.25-30 pm Eastern
Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines: (9.40L), 10.30H, 12.30L, 1.30H, 3.30L
***All intraday Cycle times are usually +/-30, but at times it could be + /- 60 min***
Biases suggested below can and do change depending on actual Price unfoldment.
Thursday sees a High am to Low pm day (or Inverse), with a possible 9.40 Low+/-, rally to a 10.30 cycle High+/-30, decline to a 12.30 cycle Low at either the 11.55 or 12.25-30 double CIT, rally to a 1.30 cycle High+/-30, decline to a 3.30 cycle Low+/-30.
Speculative Path: (9.40L), 10.30H, 11.55L, 12.25-30L, 1.30H, 3.30L, all +/-30 min.
The intraday cycles for the coming free week:
Thursday 12/12 sees a High am to Low pm day or Inverse
Friday 12/13 sees a 1st hour High and bias to be higher.
Monday 12/16 sees a Low am to High pm day
Tuesday 12/17 sees a 1st hour Low and bias to be lower
Wednesday 12/18 sees a 1st hour High and bias to be higher.
If Tomorrow 12/12 is a Low am to High pm day instead, then all the above intraday cycles will be inverted.
The Mebob rules are a good trend following system.
From my friend Mebob, Mr Rob Falk, in his own words:
The Mebob trade has been described incorrectly by many people. Probably the most misunderstood part of it has to do with the CLOSE on the buy and sell signal. The buy or sell signals are only confirmed by the CLOSING PRICE of the following 5 minute bars and NOT the high or low. The basic concept as I originally presented it to Avid is as follows.
1. The MEBOB bar is a five minute bar that starts at 9:05 Central and ends at 9:10 Central time.
2. If you draw a horizontal line on your chart from the high and low of that bar you have the key points for the day.
3. If you CLOSE above the high of the Mebob on any subsequent 5 minute bar you buy.
4. If you CLOSE below the low of the Mebob you sell.
The most asked question is, "where is the stop loss". That is pretty obvious by the rules but some days the Mebob bar is quite big and for some to take a 8-10 point loss is more than they want to accept. My general answer is to use a 5.25 trailing stop on your entry. I have found over the years that if the market reverses more than 5 points from the buy or sell signal it will keep going.