Monday, November 4, 2013

Review and Forecast of the various Time and Cycles.


http://www.safehaven.com/article/31691/review-and-forecast-of-the-various-time-and-cycles

Forecast made on my last public blog on 10/3/13: “We should continue to decline and make an 10/4-7 major Low. I don’t have any high quality Time CITs supporting this Cycle CIT Low date, but the next Solar Time CIT on 10/9 should be another Low. In general, it is the Bulls turn to stampede higher into my next proprietary Time and Cycle cluster CIT.”

Actual: We made an 10/9/13 Solar CIT major Low at 1646.47 SPX, 2 TD off the expected 10/7 Lows and which was the 35 week (green lines) cycle Low (click on weekly chart to enlarge) and we rallied a powerful 158.75 SP’s so far into 10/30/13 All time Highs at 1775.22 SPX, which was another version of the 35 week Cycle (pink lines). The market rallied into long term 3/6/09L-10/4/11L and 4/26/10- 2/18/11H parallel channel resistance at the 10/30/13H at 1775 SPX. The markets have been straight up since the 10/9 Solar CIT Low into the 10/30H, with only 1 TD pullback days. In the last 3 days, we have seen 3 minor back to back decline days so far, which is a Change in the trend (CIT) since the 10/9 Low.


There was a Time and Price Square CIT on 10/29/13, supporting the 10/30/13 High.
Price: 3/6/09L-2/18/11H = 677 SP's
Time: 3/6/09L + 677 TD = 10/29/13 => 10/30/13H.

What’s next:  Does this all means 10/30/13 was a major High? It is possible, but as all trends are up, surprises will be to the upside, so we must see some price confirmations either way.


The 319 hourly cycle was either an 10/31H at 1768.53 SPX or the 11/1 Low at 1752.70 SPX. Any decline below 1752.70 SPX is confirmed bearish and leads to a test of the 1730-40 SPX area. Conversely, any rally above 1768.53 SPX is bullish for a test of the 10/30 High at 1775 SPX. The next Time and Cycle cluster to watch is on 11/7/13 as it is both a Solar and Cycle CIT.

11/7 Update: We rallied into the 11/7 Solar and Cycle CIT, made a higher High and have now reversed sharply lower. That is a prefect CIT today, with a secondary High in place today as the 10/30 time and Price Square High still stands. It doesn't get any better than that.
 Various notes: There are various Time and Cycles techniques to determine CITs (Change in Trend), Highs and Lows and below is the Raj T&C Daily Email order of importance:

  1. Cycles Research to find dominant or active cycles first. If a cycle has been discovered to have predicted at least 3-5 recent Highs or Lows+/-1, it is considered dominant or active and can then predict future Highs and Lows, within 1 TD accuracy, as opposed to Fixed cycles, that are +/- many days and weeks.
  2. Active Cycles that has a proprietary Vedic & Biblical numerology are Master Cycles.
  3. Time Research to find the Solar CITs that have a high 84-90% accuracy and Geometric CITs that have a 70-80% accuracy.
  4. All other Time and Cycle techniques are also important, but they serve to support the above two, these includes Fibonacci Timing, Master Time Code CITs, Squares of Time and Price, squared Dates from past dates, Astro CITs, Elliott waves, Fixed cycles, etc.
  5. We always need to consider the Solar and Geometric Timing CITs in combination with the dominant Cycles. The ideal is that they support and confirm each other, which increase the accuracy to 90-95%, but if they don't, it will cause additional volatility.
  6. Cycle CITs. In addition to Solar and geometric Time CITs, there are also Cycle CITs. when cycles are found that predicted at least 3-5 previous Highs and Lows, but has many Inversions, it is not considered an active cycle, but it does produce future Cycle CITs, ie High or Lows. This is as opposed to Active Cycles (1&2 above) that have predicted at least 3-5 previous Highs and Lows and have No Inversions.

  

20 comments:

Suren said...

Raj,
Are we in a pickle now that SPX closed yesterday above 1768 and today dropped below 1752? Both bullish as well as bearish levels have been taken out. Is the CIT direction in limbo?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Hi Suren,

We rallied into the 11/7 Solar and Cycle CIT, made a higher High and have now reversed sharply lower.

That is a prefect CIT today, with a secondary High in place as the 10/30 High stands...

wiseman said...

but with a solar and cycle CIT would they be a trend change so fast like today?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Technically 11/7 could be a High or Low and has not been confirmed either way yet.

wiseman said...

i think it is manipulation on the upside but you never know since there is so much corruption, computers robots and all of other kinda of things but we will see.

mommy and three said...

Raj, tomorrow is supposed to be I believe Crawfords Top for Nov 13, then there is a Cycle Turn very important which should be a Low on Nov 20 or the 19th. Does this fit in with your work, and do you think we will see 1710-1725 by the Nov 20th date?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

mommy and three, We have been a narrow trading range since the 10/30 Solar CIT and Time and Price Square and 11/7 High and Low, frustrating Bulls and bears alike. Whichever way it breaks, will determine the next large move.

wiseman said...

we will see I think it will be a big break since it is in a small range for so long

wiseman said...

it does look like a top

Suren said...

Raj:
When are the next Mars Rahu conjunctions for 2014 and 2015?
Thanks ....... Suren

wiseman said...

what now?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Suren,

Mars 000 True Node 07/14/2014 00:14

Mars 090 True Node 11/20/2014 11:18

Mars 180 True Node 03/05/2015 03:58

Mars 090 True Node 07/02/2015 00:45

Mars 000 True Node 11/12/2015 17:27

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Wiseman, I was expecting the market to rally into my next Solar CIT

Raj Time and Cycles said...

I was looking for a 11/7 High, decline to 11/12 Low, which was the 11/13 Low near the Open and rally into my next T&C cluster...

Sir Haze Nihil said...

NQ went 360 degrees in time from low to high on 11/13/13.

Suren said...

Thanks for the Mars Rahu dates Raj.

Suren

Suren said...

Eric Hadik is expecting a two week "shar decline" starting as early as 11/15 - especially with Venus conjunct Pluto opposition Jupiter Square Pluto. Merriman is also expecting the time into 11/25 Uranus Pluto square as volatile. WATCHOUT!

jj914 said...

Newsletters (including Hadik) are at an all time low for bearish sentiment (according to Bespoke). This is a good indicator for a continued strong market through year end. I am sure Ian is smiling in agreement.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Thanks JJ,

I am still looking for the market to end 2013 near their All time Highs, short term sharp pullbacks notwithstanding.

wiseman said...

raj did predict that at the beginning of the year that he market will year end at it high