Thursday, April 21, 2011

The US Dollar Times and Cycles


The US Dollar weekly (click on chart to enlarge) has been in a solid weekly Down trend ever since the June 2010 and more recently the Jan 2011 Highs. The Dollar is closely linked with many other markets including the Stock markets.

Upcoming Dollar Daily Change in Trend (CIT) Times:  5/3*, 6/20, 7/5, 8/18

Upcoming Dollar Weekly Change in Trend (CIT) Times:  1st wk of May, 5/20-27 wk, 1st wk of July, 8/26 wk, 12/23 wk.

The 5/3 CIT and 1st wk of May should be an important turning point to watch.
The 7/5 CIT and the 1st wk of July should be an important turning point to watch.

Key Dollar Price Resistance: 75.80, 76.88, 77.45

A weekly rally above the 1st Down trend line at 75.80 would be the 1st Buy signal, above 76.88, the wave 1 low of the current decline is bullish for a move to 77.45. A rally above 77.45 double weekly Down trend lines is bullish.

Key Dollar Price Support: 74.17, the 11/09 Low, 72.86, the 88.6%, Major Long term Support 70.70 3/17/08L 

We closed below the 78.6% retrace suggesting a full retest of the 3/17/08 Low at 70.70 Support.



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2 comments:

Big Bang said...

Raj,

What's your take on the dollar CIT this week. Do we need a close above 75 this week for their to be a weekly CIT to the upside. Looks like the dollar got a bottom on your daily CIT date, and the next daily CIT date isn't for a while...

Thanks.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Yes we need to close above the down channel at 75.33 currently to get bullish the dollar short term, higher resistance is at 77