Please note: The following post below is an example of my daily email sent to subscribers. If you would like to know more or have any questions, you can email me privately at timeandcycles@gmail.com or koesje1958@yahoo.com. Daily Cycles for Swingtraders: 9/4-6 High, 9/13 Low, 9/20H
Solar Price* Support/Resistance (SR) 9/07/07: 1382, 1403, 1424, 1447, 1470, 1487, 1504, 1519.50 , 1535 SEP SP500
Intraday Change in Trend (CIT) Times 9/07/07: 9 .35, 10.35*, 11.10, 12.30, 2.40, hourly close.
The market is awaiting the Unemployment report, so not much has changed from yesterday's pattern. The 30 min chart shows how the market has been hanging on a thread on the blue uptrendline. Right below is the KEY (Red) Gann TL Support at 1463-64 SPX that needs to be broken before any serious decline can take place.
The breakdown, imho, if not tomorrow, should take place no later than Monday 9/10 and last through 9/13, my next daily CIT. The News media will generate lots of FEAR around 9/11 6th year anniversary with a Bin Laden tape.
CNN has this article:
http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD
http://online.wsj.com/article
=googlenews_wsj
Imho, Someone wants this market cheaper, so that they can buy it at a lower price. This is the reason you can expect prices to be lower into 9/13/07. The hourly SPX (see chart) suggests we may have a 3 Gap play once 1464 SPX is taken out.
1. 1464 SPX Red Gann TL and Fork Support
2. 8/31 Gap @ 1457.64 SPX/ 1461.70 SEP SP and 1459 SPX 200 DMA 3. 8/29 Gap @ 1432.36 SPX / 1438.50 Sep SP 8/29 Gap
4. 1425-30 SPX = previous wave 4 and 50% Retrace is 1429.45 Sep SP
5. 8/17 Gap @ 1411 SPX/ 1425 SEP SP and 62% retrace
Key SPX/SEP SP Resistance areas:
1. 9/5 Gap @ 1489.50 SPX, which close to the 50 DMA @ 1488 SPX
2. 70.7%R=1502 SPX and 1504 SPX is 8/8 Swing High.
3. 78.6 %R = 1516 SPX
These Price Support / Resistance (SR) areas combined with the intra day CITs gives a high 90% probability turns. Also watch the Solar Prices, especially 1447, 1470, 1487 Sep SP as Key Support/Resistance and floor trader's price SR.
The 5min chart shows a breakout is due soon and an Apex CIT at 10.35 am
Good Luck and Trade well.
Reminder: Trade the CITs and not the biases. Speculative paths and biases can and do change depending on the actual Market unfoldment. If we rally into a CIT, it's a High and if we decline into a CIT, it's a Low, especially at Key Support and Resistance areas. CIT's work 70-80% of the time and they don't work well in SD (Strong Down) or SU days.
Disclaimer
Trading in Stocks, ETF, Options and Futures involves risks. The contents of this email is for general information and educational purposes only and should not be construed as an investment advice or strategy. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
The content may not be copied or reproduced.
Important Daytrading Notes to review carefully:
Glossary of Intraday terms:
CIT = Change in Trend, HOD/LOD = High of Day/Low of Day, MOB = Make or Break, OE = Option Expiration Day, SP Cycle = Symmetry Point/Mirror Image Cycle, SU/SD = Strong Up/Strong Down, SR = Support/Resistance, TD = Trading Days, TL = Trendline, WBOE = Wednesday before Option Expiration Day, 50/200 DMA = 50/200 Day Moving Average, Fund Managers watch this closely.
Trading the CITs:
1. CIT (= Change in Trend) Times could be either Highs or Lows. If the markets are rallying into the CIT Time frame, it will be a High.
If the markets are declining into the CIT Time Frame, it will be a Low.
1. Intraday Time CIT's are most of the times exact or off by +/- 5, seldom +/-10 minutes to remain valid.
2. CIT's don't work well when manipulation is more likely, like in thin markets, eg before holidays (last week) or in OE week or when a FED intervention is obvious and even announced.
3. Major Price Support and Resistance (SR) also causes CIT's, that's the reason why when Price CIT and Time CITs meet, the probability increases to 90% for a CIT to occur.
4. CIT's don't have to occur at extreme Highs or Lows, they could occur in an uptrend.5. Not all CITs work, naturally we expect all of them to work, especially if they have worked incredibly well in the past. They work 70-80% of the time, 20% of them don't, especially when the markets go SU or SD. Be patient, take a position, only if a CIT is clear for you.
6. Always keep a 3 point stop under the CIT time, if going Long or a 3 point stop above, if going short. That's the point where the CIT should be wrong in general. If you're in 3-5 SP point profit, move your stop to Break Even (BE).
7. Trade the CITs, not the biases or opinions, etc., just watch what the market is actually doing at the CIT.
8. Be patient, you don't have to trade all CITs, overtime, there will be many more good CITs to trade.
9. The trend is your friend, one possible strategy in daytrading is to only trade with the trend, ie
When the general trend is UP, look to trade those CITs that are Lows. This is best done in Strong Up trending Markets.
When the general trend is DOWN, look to trade those CITs that are Highs. This is best done in strong down trending Markets.
10. It's best to observe first how the CITs work before using them, so you get a feel for them. It's best to use them as an additional tool in your arsenal of intraday tools in your toolbox. They should not be used as a stand alone tool, but rather in conjunction with your own intraday buy and sell signals.
It is important to be aware that Floor traders have a regularly calculated set of SR, which you can calculate yourself here:
http://www.stepneyfutures.com
*Solar Prices are calculated Price Support and Resistances (S/R) using a proprietary technique. When the Markets reach a Solar S/R Price or one of the floor-trader's S/R at the same time as an Intraday CIT, the probability increases up to 90% that a Turn is likely.
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