The longer term view

There are several versions of the 4 year cycle, but the simple view (kiss) is seen on the longer term monthly SPX chart (click to enlarge). The 4 year/48 Mo Cycle is as follows: 8/82L - 9/86L, 10/90L, 12/94L, 10/98L, 10/02L and 6/14/06 Low @ 1219.29 SPX.

From the 6/14/06 Major Low, we made an bullish move to the 7/16/07 High, which started a large ABC correction down.

The large ABC down Update (Please refer to the 11/9/07 post & chart)

The market is in a devastating C wave decline and is gripping everyone with lots of Fear.

Below is a summary of my take on it:

1. We are in a Large ABC down (see my 11/9 post for the chart). The market is retesting the 8/16/07 Lows 1370-1416 SPX (8/16 H/L large intraday range ) in a C wave decline of a n ABC down (see chart) , where A wave = 8/16 Lows, B wave = 10/11 Highs and C wave is currently in progress. The channel on the chart is targeting the 1410 SPX area.
2. Once this C wave ends, we should see a strong rally into Jan-Feb 08 to retest the recent Highs.
3.There is Major support at 1405-1410 SPX Daily and weekly SPX Channel, that should be the initial target for the current C wave decline, although technically we can retest the lower end of the 8/16 Low @ 1370 SPX.
4. 1411 SPX is also the last Gap to get filled on the downside.
5.The long term uptrend channel from 3/12/03L, currently at 1405-1410 SPX should not be violated on a weekly basis or we will see much lower prices.
7. Shorter term Cycles suggests the current C wave decline completes by the 1st week of Dec 07.
8. We could also be in a larger ABC, where the 1st week of Dec Low is only an A wave Low, to be followed by a B wave rally into Jan/Feb 08 High and a final C wave decline into April 08 Lows.