Tuesday, September 18, 2007

Make or Brake day

Today is a Make or Brake (MOB) day. Today is a pivotal daily CIT (Change in Trend, ie HIGH or LOW day). The last 2 were 9/13 High and 9/4 High.

Sofar we're rallying into today, suggesting a High May be forming.

How the markets reacts to the FED will determine the direction of the next few days and even months.

If the markets react positively and rallies to above 1504 SPX, then we should see a shallow pullback into 9/20 Lows to be followed by a strong rally to retest the Highs in the weeks afterwards.

If the market reacts negatively, we should see a stronger pullback into 9/20 Lows, here we need to see how far down the markets can penetrate to determine how much longer we will take to see a retest of the highs. The maximum retrace is either 1465 - 1445 SPX.

The Fed futures suggests a 100% odds of a 1/4 point cut at 2.15 pm.

The 11.40-12.45 Hourly double CIT is important to watch and especially how the markets reacts towards the FED's expected 1/4 discount rate cut.

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