Friday, March 27, 2015

Raj Time and Cycles Review and Forecast 3/27/15

Forecast (1) from the 3/10 private & public blog Update: The decline continues into the next Solar CIT. We are lower into  the 3/12 Solar CIT and WBOE ( week before Option Expiration) Low, reverse and rally into OE (Option Expiration) week.

Actual: We made a 3/11-13 double Low at the 3/12 Solar CIT and rallied into Option Expiration week as expected.

Forecast (2) from the 3/20 Morning Update:
“A rally into the last hour High today suggests the 3/21 Solar CIT will become a 3/23
High and then start a decline into end of next week.”

3/20 was:
1. The next Solar CIT is on 3/21
2. The next 7 Year/1800 TD Cycle major CIT 
3. The start of the 9 Days of Mother Divine CIT
4. The 24 Square week Cycle High
5. The Spring Equinox CIT, the first day of Spring
6. A Super Perigee New Moon
7. A Solar Eclipse
8. Quarterly Option Expiration Day
9. 180 Degrees from 9/19/14 Quarterly Option Expiration Day

Actual: We made a 3/23 major High in the 1st hour and declined sharply afterwards.

Forecast (3) from the 3/22 Raj T&C Weekend Email:
“The cycle bias is 3/21 weekend Solar CIT is a 3/23H and we decline into 3/27-30L at the 38 wk & 911 TD Cycle on 3/26+/-, the 3/27 Geometric CIT and 3/28 Mother Divine weekend CIT and rally into XXX  Solar CIT.

Actual: From the 3/23 CIT High, we declined a whopping 69+ SP’s into 3/26 Low so far.

The patriotic 911 Trading Cycle (TD) cycle: 

5/12/04 Low-12/26/07 High -8/9/11 Low -3/26/15 Low

The proprietary Solar and Geometric Time CITs (Change in Trend, is High or Low) in the last 2 weeks (1-4 Cyan vertical lines on chart) continue to out perform:
  1. The 3/12 Solar CIT was the 3/11 major Low.
  2. The 3/16 &18 Geometric CITs were the short term 3/16 High and 3/18 Low.
  3. The 3/21 Solar CIT was the next 3/23 major swing High.
  4. The 3/27 Geometric CIT was the 3/26 Low so far
  5. The XXX Solar CIT will be the next High.

What’s next: We should make a 3/27 Low +/-1 Trading Day at the 3/27 Geometric CIT and start a relative sharp rally into the next proprietary Solar CIT. Be ready as the next decline after that won’t be pretty.

Other Markets: The Euro is Long term bearish.
The Euro continuous futures weekly chart closed slightly higher last week at 1.08.3, after making fresh 12 year Lows and solidly below major long term triangle support.

Similar to Crude Oil, mentioned on this blog back on Jan 14 and Jan 5, there was a large triangle hat had formed since 11/18 2005 Low. The 10 year triangle break in the 1st week of January 2015 projected a multi month decline to the 80-82 area in the coming months and years. A solid close below 99 support should lead to a retest of the 80-82 area. Euro is long term bearish. Vacation in Europe anyone?


honolulu beach said...

Does Gold follow the Euro down ?

honolulu beach said...

Does Gold follow the Euro down

Raj Time and Cycles said...

honolulu beach, Gold is longer term bullish, but short term bearish, it needs to hold key long term trend line support.

SLV Trader said...

spot on so far... let's hope this rally runs all week!

Peter Lo said...

Spot on? Looks to me that we drop to bradleys turn date and eclipse. spy lost all of monday and then some intraday. we closed right at fridays close like this week never happened. depending on which cycle/model one uses, seasonality should lift us to new highs in april, 2nd best month historically... however a great time for the big boys to just tank it here.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

The next Solar CIT was on 3/31 in the evening, so the 3/30 High at the close was the High of this move.

USIKPA said...

It looks like oil has bottomed. Are you still confident of a major low (high?)in June?

dc-BEAR said...

thank you for this update, Raj, exactly what was supposed to happen again--the current and continued rally?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

USIKPA, the 50 month cycle due June is a long cycle and it due +/-1-2 months

DC Bear, markets are pretty much unfolding as expected. This last week was supposed to be sideways, which we are seeing.

dc-BEAR said...

thank you, Raj. Forgive me for sounding a tad skeptical, but Aunt Yellen never fails to surprise...and it's historically been to the upside...especially when all are very bearish. Best to you.

dc-BEAR said...

Ok, unless 'today' is 'the' top, this looks like another FOMC win and Raj 'miss' to me...

dc-BEAR said...

Well, looks like Aunt Yellen was at it again today...we haven't had a bearish OpEx in such a long time, she must have been pretty upset based on today's rally. World-wide printing seems to be impacting results of all sorts of TA...even otherwise reliable cycles...I would guess anyway, but just an observation for now. Any thoughts to share, Raj?

dc-BEAR said...

Goodness...a new all time high. yep, that's most definitely an Aunt Yellen 'win'...once again.