Monday, January 5, 2015

Time and Cycles Crude Oil Review and Forecast

Crude Oil has been in Free fall the last couple of months. It became bearish when it finally broke below its 2 year Triangle back in September-October 2014.

10/06/14  Crude Oil Forecast:The Monthly Crude Oil closed lower last week at 89.74, below long term Triangle Trendline support at 92, which is bearish. The Triangle has formed since the 5/2/11 Highs, just over 2 years now.”

11/17/14 Crude Oil Forecast:The Monthly Crude Oil again closed lower last week at 75.82, which remains bearish. Triangle target is 51.67.”

Actual: Since we broke the 2 year Triangle back in September 2014, we saw a sharp multi-month decline finally reaching our 51.67 Triangle Target (from 11/17) on Monday Jan 5 2015.

What’s next: Support is at 49.86, the 78.6% retrace, but Major support is at the long term 12/98L-11/01L-12/08L Up trendline at the 46-47 area. There is a 50 Month Cycle due June 2015, bias is this will be a Low and the Apex of the 2 year Triangle due in Feb 2016, which should be a major CIT.

In the Stockmarket, the 12/26-29 double Highs were confirmed in with 12/31 decline and projected lower on Fri-Mon 1/02-05, we will review the stock market outlook in the next Update.

1 comment:

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