Thursday, April 30, 2015

Raj Time and cycle Review and Forecast 4/30/15

http://safehaven.com/article/37488/raj-time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast-43015

From my 3/27 last public blog post”We should make a 3/27 Low +/-1 Trading Day at the 3/27 Geometric CIT and start a relative sharp rally”

Actual: The 3/27 Geo CIT was the 3/26 Low, which remains the Low to date.


Since that 3/26 Low, the markets have been in a choppy, sideways to up (Red) channel, without a clear directional trend, frustrating Bulls and Bears alike.

There is a 2/20/15 Symmetry (mirror Image) Cycle that has been in the markets:


  1. 02/02L =  03/11L
  2. 01/22H = 03/20H
  3. 01/14L = 04/01L
  4. 12/26H = 04/15H
  5. 12/16L = 04/27H
  6. 12/05H = 05/05H is next!

The proprietary Solar and Geometric Time CITs (Change in Trend, is High or Low) in the last 4 weeks (Cyan vertical lines on chart) continue to outperform, all +/-1 Day:

  1. 3/27 Geometric CIT was the 3/26 Low
  2. 4/01 Solar CIT was the 4/1 Low
  3. 4/06 Geometric CIT was the 4/6 Low
  4. 4/11 weekend Solar CIT and 4/13-15 triple Geometric CIT was the 4/13-15 High
  5. 4/21 Solar CIT was the 4/22 Low
  6. 4/24 Geometric CIT was Monday 4/27 High, 1 day later.
  7. 5/1 Solar CIT is the 4/30 Low so far

From the 4/25 Raj T&C weekend Email“We have rallied into Friday 4/24 Geometric and 4/24 SP Cycle CIT suggesting an 4/24-27 High  forming. We are overbought, suggesting a pullback is due soon, most likely into the 5/1 Solar CIT Low and 156 TD Cycle due 5/1.
Actual: We made a Monday 4/27 High in the 1st hour and right at pink channel resistance and reversed lower into Thursday 4/30 Low so far.

What’s next?The red channel break opens the door for lower prices, especially if we decline below the last 4/17 swing Low. We are lower into the 5/1-5 cluster CIT Low at the 5/1 Solar CIT and 156 TD Cycle due 5/1 and 2 TD later at the 5/5 double Geometric and 2/20 Symmetry Cycle CIT on 5/5.


Forecast: Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 4/30/15: 9.35, 11.25, 4.10 pm CIT Eastern

Actual: 9.40 High of day (HOD), 11.35 High, 4.05 High

Forecast: Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines (9.40L), 10.30H, 12.30L, 1.30H, 3.30L

Actual: 9.40HOD, 10.25L, 11.35H, 12.55L, 1.35H, 3.15LOD


Thursday sees a High am to Low pm day, with a possible 9.40 Low at the 9.35 CIT, rally to a 10.30 High at the 11.25 CIT, decline to a 12.30 Low+/-30. rally to a 1.30 High+/-30, decline to a 3.30 Low at the 4.10 CIT

Result: The intraday cycle saw a High am to Low pm day, with a 9.40 1st hour HIgh of day and a last hour 3.15 Low of Day.

5/4 Noon UpdateThe 5/1 Solar CIT was the 4/30 Low, which was the 10 TD Hurst Low, being 9 TD from the 4/17 Low and if we rally into the 5/5 double Geometric CIT, it will be a swing High.

10 comments:

dc-BEAR said...

thank you, Raj...I guess after Aunt Yellen's all time highs, and the recent Bradley Date, a healthy pullback was indeed already expected. Had you sent your notice a few days earlier, I'm sure folks may have appreciated that a bit more...especially after today's drop. best to you...

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Hi dc-BEAR , If we take out the 4/17 Low at 1972 SPX, we still have lower to go in the coming days.

Peter Lo said...

Isnt 4/17 spx low @ 2072 and didnt the 1972 low occur on 12/16/14? Too cryptic for me to read/follow. Keeping it simple here, rally to next bradley turn at 5/10 starting with a nice pop tomorrow. Brad's turn this past monday was spot on FMoon. Or the complete opposite.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Peter Lo, sorry Yes, it should be 2072 SPX not 1972 SPX

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Forecast: Intraday 5 min SPX CIT Times 4/30/15: 9.35, 11.25, 4.10 pm CIT Eastern

Actual: 9.40 High of day (HOD), 11.35 High, 4.05 High

Forecast: Intraday Cycle is the Cyan lines (9.40L), 10.30H, 12.30L, 1.30H, 3.30L

Actual: 9.40HOD, 10.25L, 11.35H, 12.55L, 1.35H, 3.15LOD


Thursday sees a High am to Low pm day, with a possible 9.40 Low at the 9.35 CIT, rally to a 10.30 High at the 11.25 CIT, decline to a 12.30 Low+/-30. rally to a 1.30 High+/-30, decline to a 3.30 Low at the 4.10 CIT

Result: The intraday cycle saw a High am to Low pm day, with a last hour 3.15 Low of Day

Topher said...

Raj,
Can your timing window invert and we see a swing high May 5th? Thanks

Topher said...

A follow up question, you mentioned 5.1-5.5 as a major low. If instead, we put in a high would you consider that an important high?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Hi Topher, It is always possible.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

and if the markets wanted to perverse, which it usually loves to be, then 4/30 Low was the 5/1 Low and the 5/5 double Geo CIT is a 5/5-6 High

Raj Time and Cycles said...

The 5/1 Solar CIT was the 4/30 Low, which was the 10 TD Hurst Low, being 9 TD from the 4/17 Low.