Thursday, March 14, 2013

Review and the Flash Crash cycle Update

From last week 3/08 weekend Report: "OE weeks tend to be bullish. Statistics suggests any decline should be limited in OE week and above 1520 SPX by 3/15-18. Markets are also close to expanding triangle and channel resistance at 1555 SPX, so a pullback into 3/12 Solar CIT is expected, followed by a rally into 3/18H at 1560-65 SPX" 
Actual: Markets rallied to a 1556 SPX High and saw the expected 1 day pullback into 3/12 Solar CIT Low, before rallying to higher highs today.

What's next?: We should continue the rally into Monday 3/18 quadruple CIT High. Mercury also goes direct on 3/17. The 6 Lunar Month Cycle supports the rally into 3/18-19.

In my 3/5 blog post I mentioned this Flash Crash (FC) statistic:
7 out of 9 (78%) of the Flash Crash Cycles saw sharp 12% declines, 2 of 9, 22% did not see any decline.

Here is some more information on the FC cycle:
The 5/6/10 mini Crash became known as the Flash Crash. I discovered this cycle in 2010, when the Flash Crash occurred, which is why I named it the Flash crash cycle. This Cycle has been in the markets ever since the mini crash of 4/14/00 Low.  The FC Cycle is a 1-2 year long fixed cycle,  it will have a normal variance of a few weeks to a month. Once the Highs are in, we should see the FC Cycle decline, with a minimum 7% (110 SP's) to an average of 12% (187 SP's) decline which could even spillover into April.


3/17 Update: 
I first mentioned the Flash crash Cycle on Feb 26 2013 and that it was due in March 2013.
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-flash-crash-cycle-is-coming-soon.html

I was looking for a very important turning point at Monday's shorter term quadruple 3/18 CIT, which was 1 TD earlier at the Friday 3/15 High.

This reminded of the rare 3 long term geometric SPX CITs covering Decades, all clustering on one date, Friday 6/1/12, which was 1 TD later at the Monday 6/4/12 Major Low

There are Five of those seven Flash Cycle (FC) Harmonics that are EXACT within 0-2 days at the 3/15/13 High. The accuracy is simply amazing.

I will post the entire analysis after the  FC cycle has completed its course.

3/19 Update: 
 As the 1-2 year Flash Crash Cycle is a Fixed Cycle, it will have a +/- few weeks to a month variation. This means the FC Cycle could manifest in APRIL.

I have a more active dominant cycle that is more precise with the next Highs and Lows that tells me that will be the case.

3/21 Update:
There are 2 cycles I am currently watching, one is the FC fixed Cycle that is +/- a few weeks to a month
The other is the current dominant cycle that is much more precise as it predicted all the most recent Highs and Lows, like the 11/16/12L, 2/4/13L, 2/19H, 2/26 major Low, 3/6 Low and most recently the 3/18 High, which was 1 TD early at the 3/15H.
This cycle is very exact, and forecasted the current decline and is also looking for another rally.  
 
I know of no one that finds cycles this precise as all Cycle experts knows only of Fixed cycles, +/- a few weeks, like the FC Cycle.
 
The dominant cycle also tells me when the next major decline and FC should actually occur in April
It also knew that the decline was not quite over with yesterday's rally.



31 comments:

bob said...

do you think we go a lot higher a little higher ?

jj914 said...

With $12 Billion pouring into stocks weekly, it's hard to justify a Flash Crash on a fundamental basis. I believe this cycle will fall into the 22% that you indicated having 'no crash'!!!

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Bob, yes we should by 3/18 Highs.

jj914, we should see a minimum of a 110 SP's (7%) to an avg of 189 SP's (125) decline. Even with the Fed, these declines has happened before.

Suren said...

Your previous blog stated a 3/21 CIT. This blog states a 3/18-19 HIGH. Is 3/18-19 a CIT as well as 3/21?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

In Friday's Live chat on my forum, I mentioned:

"15:13:20 ‹RajaCar› 3/15-18 should be Highs, sometimes this information is not enough no?
15:13:47 ‹RajaCar› we want the precise minute and second of that High, which is not easy to do"

I was looking for a very important turning point at Monday's quadruple 3/18 CIT, which was 1 TD earlier at the Friday 3/15 High.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Suren,

Yes, Both those dates are Time CIT

Raj Time and Cycles said...

There are Five of those seven Flash Cycle Harmonics that are EXACT within 1-2 days at the 3/15/13 High.

The accuracy is amazing.

bob said...

so do you think the high was on 3/15?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Bob, certainly 3/15 was a High, I do think we will see higher Highs in 2013 after this decline has run its course.

bob said...

market looks like it does not want to give up this up trend.it is off it opening lows

pb said...

I think your Flash Crash is about to start

bob said...

the flash crash is over it went by in a flash! just kidding It is happening over time frame of 1-2 weeks I believe and he said the 15 was the high

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Bob, 3/15 was a High, the dominant Cycle (other than the FC Cycle) suggests there should be yet another High, which should be a higher or lower High.

Marketguy said...

lol..."should be a lower or higher high"...guess that has all the bases covered :-)

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Marketguy,

I am unable to give too much FREE info.

I have to keep some info for my subscribers, otherwise they might start to complain. ;0)

bob said...

don;t worry if you get this call right I believe you will have a lot more subscibers

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Lol Bob, I have plenty of subscribers already, so that is not an issue.

My concern is that people may draw wrong conclusions on the basis of these blogposts alone, which would be a mistake.

I will give you a hint: As the 1-2 year Flash Crash Cycle is a Fixed Cycle, it will have a +/- few weeks to a month variation. This means the FC Cycle could manifest in APRIL.

I have a more active dominant cycle that is more precise with the next Highs and Lows that tells me that will be the case.

qichengm said...

Hi Raj,

What could be the trigger for FC ? Markets does not care Cyprus now.
Thanks,

Raj Time and Cycles said...

qichengm, I am not sure what would trigger it, it could be any of the Eurozone bubbles bursting.

Marketguy said...

Raj, so now you're pushing the FC cycle into April?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

There are 2 cycles I am currently watching, one is the FC fixed Cycle.

The other is the current dominant cycles that is much more precise as it predicted all the most recent Highs and Lows, like the 11/16/12L, 2/4/13L, 2/19H, 2/26 major Low, 3/6 Low and most recently the 3/18 High, which was 1 TD early at the 3/15H.

This cycle is very exact, and forecasted the current decline and is also looking for another rally.

I know of no one that finds cycles this precise as all Cycle experts knows only of Fixed cycles, +/- a few weeks, like the FC Cycle.

The dominant cycle also tells me when the next major decline and FC should actually occur in April

relax said...

It would be greatly appreciated if you can share some of the dates for rest of march and FC in april.
Thank you for any info.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Relax, The dominant cycle was looking for a 3/18H (3/15H) and an ABC decline into 3/21-22 Lows, which was the 3/21L.

bob said...

So do you think this will be an inverted full moon

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Marketguy,

It is a well known fact among experienced cycle experts that all fixed cycles expand and contract and as this is a long 1-2 year cycle, it will have a normal variation of a few weeks to a month, so I am not pushing anything, it is the nature of the cycle to expand. You can ask any expert in the field. they will tell you the same thing.

I mentioned on 2/26 that a Flash crash is coming in March, but as it is a fixed cycle, it is also +/- 1 month.

If you want precision, you need to follow the dominant Cycle as it predicted a "2/25L, 2/28H, 3/1-4L”
Actual: 2/26L, 2/28H, 3/1L
see my 3/5 blog post:
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2013/03/review-and-update-on-flash-crash.html

It also predicted a 3/12L and a 3/18H.
Actual: 3/12L, 3/15H, 1 TD earlier.
see 3/14 :
http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2013/03/review-and-flash-crash-cycle-update.html

and in this comment section I posted that the dominant cycle was looking for a decline into 3/21-22 Low and the actual Low was 3/21L (or could be a 3/25L) as it is allowed +/-1 TD.

The future forecast of the dominant cycle I have to reserve for actual paying subscribers, but I have already given plenty of hints on what's next.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Bob,

I guess you mean the 3/27 Full moon?

Full Moons and New Moons both has a 50% chance of being Highs or lows. Just look at enough years of History and you'll find that to be correct.

Bruce Larson had a nice Price and Time for 3/27. 9/14/12H to 11/16/12L was a 131 SP's. Now change that price in Calendar days (CD) and Trading days (TD) and you get:

9/14/12H + 131 TD = 3/27/13
11/16/12L + 132 CD = 3/27/13.

I don't have 3/27 as the next dominant cycle High. In my next public post I will again review the last few weeks.

Good Luck.

Trendtrader said...

So long as 20 or more comments on every post so long is the Crash million miles away.
Forget? 90% are wrong!
I dont know why so many people wait for an crash, tell this a little child in India or china.
Insane what i read in all Blogs.

Trendtrader

Raj Time and Cycles said...

That is correct Trendtrader,

Big 20% crashes are rare events.

What the FC Cycle is looking is a mini crash of 7-12% decline.

That is plenty relative to what we have seen in the markets in the last months and very tradeable, as long as you choose the correct High to get short.

Too many are short prematurely. Here again Timing the exact High is everything.

pb said...

Remember just buy the dip.

This market will go up forever.

It's different this time.

qichengm said...

Hi Raj,
Do you think FC has started or we will see new high for SPX ?
Thanks,

qichengm said...

Hi Raj,
Do you think FC has started or we will see new high for SPX ?
Thanks,