Monday, April 1, 2013

Cycle Review and Update

There are 2 cycles that are active and being watched closely:

1.  The Flash Crash (FC) fixed Cycle. Experienced cycle experts know that all fixed cycles expands and contracts and as this FC Cycle is a long 1-2 year fixed cycle, it will have a normal variation of a few weeks to a month. I first mentioned on 2/26 that a Flash crash is coming in March, but as it is a fixed cycle, it could also be a month later, in April 2013 that we see the projected minimum 7% to average 12% decline.

2. The current dominant cycle is much more precise as it predicted the most recent Highs and Lows (click on chart above to enlarge), like the 2/4/13L, 2/19H, 2/26L, 3/6L and more recently the 3/18 High, which was 1 TD early at the 3/15H.  The dominant Cycle1 pinpoints, unlike the FC fixed cycle, the next swing High and Low, within 1 trading day. If you want precision, you need to follow the dominant Cycle. 

Here are some previous blog post examples of the dominant Cycle that was looking for: "2/25L, 2/28H, 3/1-4L”   Actual: 2/26L, 2/28H, 3/1L, see the 3/5 post:
It also predicted the 3/12L and a 3/18H. Actual: 3/12L, 3/15H, 1 TD earlier, see the 3/14 post:
More recently in the 3/18 weekend Email:All trends remains firmly higher. The dominant Cycle suggests a rally into 3/18H at 1564-68 SPX, decline into 3/22 Lows and rally into 4/1 Highs.”

Actual: We rallied into a 3/15H (-1TD), declined into 3/21L (-1 TD) and we are now rallying into Monday 4/1 High, as the dominant Cycle predicted.

Conclusion: The FC fixed Cycle may still manifest a 7-12% decline (see previous posts) in April 2013, but if a more precise guide is needed, you will need to follow the current dominant cycle that determines the next short and medium term swing High and Low. The dominant cycle would have prevented anyone from getting prematurely short between January to March 2013. 


Raj Time and Cycles said...

The 4/1-2 projected High will get a solid confirmation once we close below 1555 SPX today.

bob said...

nice call on the high so we should see a low in the next 1-2 days?

Unknown said...

Is the time stamp on the comments based on Eastern time zone?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Thanks Bob.

Unknown, yes.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Flash Crash Cycle posted at