Thursday, September 6, 2012

Review and the 2012 T&C annual forecast

From last weekend's Email 9/1 forecast:  "The dominant Master Cycle suggests 9/1 High, 9/5 Lows of the week, then higher into Friday 9/7H"

Actual: The markets made an 8/31 High, dropped into 9/4 Low of the week and is now retesting  the 8/21 Highs today, 9/6.

The break above the mini sideways channel projects to a 1434 SPX target, which has been my long term target, where wave A = C = 1434.44 SPX (click on weekly chart to enlarge)

Wave A=7/1/10L-5/2/11H =359.67 SPX (360 degrees in price)

Wave C = 10/4/11L at 1074.77 + 359.67 = 1434.44 SPX

This  is likely by the 9/7 Master Cycle High.

So what is next?

The question is will the markets stop there?

The answer is Yes, but only for some time, before we make higher Highs.

In  my 2012 annual forecast, I had a rare 3 long term geometric SPX CITs (Change in Trend), covering Decades, all clustering on one date, Friday 6/1/12, which became the Monday 6/4/12 Low right at the Open.

This 6/4/12 Low became the 187 week Cycle Low that was posted on my blog back in June 2012.

There is a Time and Cycle cluster mentioned in the annual forecast due right around the important November Elections that should be important to watch.

In my 2012 annual forecast, since the beginning of the year, for many reasons, had 2012 as an up year, which has been the case so far.


Unknown said...

Hi, thanks for the update. How long do you think the 1434 level will hold? do you have a downside target before heading up again? Thanks

Raj Time and Cycles said...

That is to be determined right now. Let's get the High confirmed first.

Unknown said...

Raj, On your previous update, you considered the possibility of a major August high. Is a major high now off the table? The VIX did indeed go to a very low reading. Any possibility of a major September high? But if you are considering a higher high after a correction, a major high probably is not what you think will happen. Thanks.

Unknown said...

okay thanks. There is also strong resistance at the May 2008 pivot top...1440 SPX. another important thing to note is that oil rolled over today and usually oil tops out before markets....

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Correct, the Vix was suggesting an August High, but cycles are pointing higher.

Agreed, 5/19/08 High at 1440.24 SPX is the next resistance above 1434 SPX.
We could certainly get a spillover.

Unknown said...

Hi, is the cluster in November that you've noted indicating a low in the market similar to the June 6 cluster? Thanks

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Cycles suggest that cluster in November will be a High

Suren said...

Martin Armstrong is forecasting markets to be very volatile in the month of October. This forecast coincides with your Mars and the Vedic Dragon plunge. As a result, we should see a plunge in October and a second plunge ending around Nov. 1st before the markets recover till the end of the year?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Suren, that sounds like a possibility, but it depends on the coming week performance, what the weeks after will do.

Unknown said...

Hi, was wondering if you have a date for the next low after the 9/7H? Thanks

Raj Time and Cycles said...

"wondering if you have a date for the next low after the 9/7H?"

Yes, but I have to leave some for my subscribers/Members (currently $4/day)

Unknown said...

Raj, I'm seeing significant dates on Oct 4/5 and Nov 7/8...each of those date will be a change in trend...are these dates of significance to you as well? thanks

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Your dates may be good, but I don't have them right now.

BTW, the MC missed topping out, so it is incorrect and will be put onhold.

There is another cycle that is far superior that is very bullish through end of the year.