Thursday, January 19, 2012

Can the markets be predicted accurately?

I see various esteemed posters making bold statements that "humans are unable to make accurate stock market predictions".  

That is simply not correct, as I have shown repeatedly on this public blog, just recently I posted this:

I made the following Stock market forecast on January 4th 2012, based on my Master Cycle (MC) and so far the forecast has been correct.

1/4 MC prediction :"We should continue to rally into a triple top into 1/18-26 High, with a 1310-30 SPX target. This rally should frustrate all the Bears looking for a 1/23/12 Low as the Master Cycle is looking for a High in that time frame."

1/19: Actual: We rallied into today 1/19 with a 1313.83 SPX High.

Here is a few detailed predictions for the next few days:
1/19/12: We make a higher High, but we should close off our highs today.
1/20/12: We  make a brief 1/20 pullback Low, then rally into 1/24 High.
1/24/12: The next swing High.
1/26/12: Another High. 

There is a Fibonacci 1618 CD Cycle, first mentioned by one of my mentor James Brock, but also some on the T&C Forum, which is due on 1/18-20. There is a 1/18 Solar CIT
4.5 Yrs/1618 CD/231 wk Cycle: 10/8/98L-1616-3/12/03L-1618-8/16/07L-1618-1/20

There is a 355 TD Cycle that is due around 1/24/12 that should be a High, right at the triangle Apex.

The 1/24/12 +/- Time and Cycle Cluster
  1. The MC2 suggests a 1/18-26 High zone.
  2. The 9 squared week cycle due on 1/24
  3. The 355 TD Cycle is due on 1/24
  4. The triangle Apex CIT due around 1/24.
  5. On 1/24 Mars goes Retrograde
  6. Squares from  4/26/2010H + 21 squared TD = 441 TD = 01/24/12
  7. 38 TD cycle due on 1/23/12 should be a High area.

I will be making a 2012 Master Cycle stock market forecast for my private blog due in the next few weeks.


Raj Time and Cycles said...

Correction The MC2 actually suggests a close near the highs today.

We have a Gap and Go day, suggesting a 90% chance we close near our Highs today.

We are also on a Mebob Buy at 1305 /ES , the Mebob Bar was the Low of the day.

USIKPA said...

interesting that Tom Demark just predicted on TV that this upcoming tuesday, Jan-24, is very likely to mark the top of this rally, as the market us running out of buyers.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

USIKPA, the high will likely be near 1/26-27

Raj Time and Cycles said...

It might have shifted 1 TD in my work to 1/23L and 1/25 and 1/27 Highs, looking"A" 1/26-27 High to short

DanielB said...

Raj, does the Coronal Mass Ejection today change your forecast at all? Looking back, they seem to have fairly negative results. It's supposed to arrive tomorrow morning.

beetlejuice said...

Will watch with great interest. If you stand by your call for a top either today or by Friday then it will be a great call because the markets look awfully determined to go higher here and there is alot of assistance coming from TPTB.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

BJ: 11/26-27 High call stands as "a' High, after a relatively sharp pullback, we should make another rally attempt.

USIKPA said...

Interesting. One would tend to think "A" ought to have been made back in October - we are completeing "C" now...

Raj Time and Cycles said...

I wasn't talking Elliott waves.

I meant it is not the final high, just a High.

snoopy said...

Do you have a time and price objective for the sharp correction?? Thanks

Raj Time and Cycles said...

snoopy, Yes, the MC suggests when the next timing Low will be and what the Price target will be. (I posted it in my Raj T&C daily email)

Russia said...

What is next lower in Feb. can buy the stock and SLV? 2012/2/6?
thank you!

Austin said...

Really interesting work. I will continue to monitor your blog and progress. I too have been looking for a turn here but I focus on price and underlying breadth/momentum. I find your timing work v.interesting and it looks to be very accurate thus far.

What is this T&C forum you speak of? Is it possible to join?


Raj Time and Cycles said...

Thanks Austin,

There are several forums,

and my own private forum for clients

Russia said...

What is next lower in Feb. can buy the stock and SLV? 2012/2/2 OR 2/6?
thank you!

Money Creators said...

very interesting post and excellent blog.. nice job.. keep it up

Money Creators
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