8/23/11 Intraday Forceast VS actual Result

Today's intraday chart, posted on the T&C Live Chat forum:  http://www.timeandcycles.com/board/chat/

Actual result:

Highest Correlation year

http://www.mrci.com/special/ddji07.php

Fwiw and FYI, 2007 is the highest correlation (86%) year of the last 100 years.

This suggests the bottom is in for now and we see an October High.

This also suggest 2012 should be the Panic year to watch.

Mars and the Dragon

I have written several research articles on Mars and the Dragon (Rahu or Moon's North Node) and how it negatively effects the stockmarket. You can read more here:

http://www.timeandcycles.com/board/viewtopic.php?f=43&t=286

An excerpt of this article: "Notice that the Mars Opposition Rahu played a direct role in the 3 biggest Crashes in the last Century!!
Ma opposite Rahu (exact) = 9/14/01! = 10/12/87! = 10/24/29!"

Most recently Mars opposite Rahu was due on 7/23/11 (Click on chart to enlarge, Mars op Rahu is the Cyan vertical line) and was clearly and directly involved in the most recent mini Crash.

Alert: 7 Reasons for the Low to be in this week

As many are wondering when the next major swing Low will be, here are

7 Reasons for the Low to be in this 8/9-12 week

1. Both the 7 and 3.5 Year Lunar Cycles suggests 8/10/11 Major Low +/-
2. I had a Long Term geometric CIT due on 8/9/11
3. The 55 TD cycle suggests 8/9L, 8/12H and 8/17 Low.
4. The dominant sq wk cycle  suggests the next decline is into the 8/12 Cycle Lows +/-3
5. The 17-18 week cycle and 20 TD Hurst Cycles suggests an 8/12-15 major Low +/-3 TD
6. There is today's 8/11 Solar CIT and we're declining into it. There is also a Monday 8/15 CIT
7. The NDX 66wk cycle is due in this 8/8-12 week

Be alert, it is possible 8/9/11 was the Low, but the 8/11 Solar CIT, Friday 8/12 Cycle CIT and Monday 8/15 CIT should be watched for the final confirmation.

Update of the 2011-2012 Master Cycle Forecast

The 2011-2012 Master Cycle Forecast

 The Master Cycle (MC) 1^st mentioned and forecasted in the beginning of 2011 (Cyan lines), was looking for generally higher prices into June 2011. We saw a May and July Major High instead. 

The HIGH of the year is confirmed in and we should now be weaker into the 2nd Half of the year and lower into November 2011 when the next 35 week cycle  (see chart) Lows are due.  1101 is 38% and 1018 is 50% retrace, right at the 7/1/10 Major Lows at 1010 SPX. The Price Magnitude is not a guarantee in the chart, but should be a general guideline. Other cycles that I watch confirms the MC outlook that we are now down the rest of the year and into 2012 Major Lows.

Quick review Cycles and the Trapdoor to Hell at 1260 SPX

Quick review of posts made in my private blog

1. My last commentary on this public blog on 7/8 was that we made a 7/7 Major High, which we saw  (#1 on chart, click on chart to enlarge)
2. Cycles were then suggesting a 7/14 Low, actual: NDX 7/14L, SPX 7/18L (#2 on chart).
3. We then rallied into 7/21-22 double CIT, making a double High with the 7/7 High (#3 on chart).
4. The next major CIT was Friday 7/29 Solar CIT and 8/1 Cycle CIT, which was an 8/1 lower High (#4)

The markets was looking for trouble when we closed below the Trapdoor to Hell at 1260 SPX Major support a few days ago. The markets also closed below the 3/16 Low at 1249.05 SPX, remains below the 200 DMA (1285), below the 1275 SPX 1X1 Line from the 3/6/09 Low. This remains very bearish.

We have declined into the 8/4 Geometric CIT and 8/5 Solar CIT, suggesting a short term Low is at hand, but Bearish Momentum remains strong, so be careful as cycles suggests this decline is not quite over.

7/7 High

We rallied into the 7/7 double Solar and Geometric CIT and the 55 TD Inverse cycle suggests a 7/7 High. My other Cycles suggests a High in this area as well.

The 70 Trading Day Cycle

The 70 Trading Day (TD) Cycle (click on chart to enlarge) has been in the market in the last 4 years.  Notice how roughly every 70 TD, we have had major Highs or Lows. The 70 TD is due within the next week. 

There are a couple of versions of the 70 TD Cycle ,  one due around 5/24, the other due in early June.

The 5/16-18 CIT Time Cluster and Cycles update

I had an important Change in Trend (High or Low) Time Cluster on 5/16-18.

5/16/11 is:
      1.  8/16/07L+37^2
      2. 8/11/08H+144 wk cycle High
      3. 04/26/10H + 1 X 55 wks = 5/16/11 
      4. 03/17/08L + 3 X 55 wks = 5/16/11
      5. 5/01/00H + 24 Squared weeks = 5/16/11
      6. geometric CIT.

5/17/11 is :
1.    9/2/08H+987
2.    3/17/08L+34^2
3.    7/18/06L+42^2,
4.    02/07/06L + 5 X 55 wks = 5/17/11,
5.    10/10/02 Major Low + 3141 CD = 05/17/11
6.    geometric CIT
7.    Apex NDX CIT
8.    Sun 30 Jupiter 05/17

5/18/11 is:
1.    5/6/10 Flash crash + 377
2.    1/19/10H+22^2
3.    Geometric CIT
4.    Venus 030 Uranus 05/18

Yesterday, 5/18, we managed to close at 1340.68 SPX, right at the 5/6 close at 1340.20 SPX, which was almost 2 weeks ago, showing the sideways and choppy nature of this market and frustrating both the Bulls and Bears alike, as we really didn’t go anywhere in these past 2 weeks. 

Cycles: Originally I was looking for a 5/17-18 CIT High, but this past Monday, 5/16, an updated Forecast for the next 3-4 weeks was sent out, that suggested the 5/16-17 cluster CIT would be a Low instead and that we should still see a couple of higher Highs further down the road at future projected dates.   

We are not out the woods yet, as we still need to rally right away and close above a certain price to confirm the bullish cycles are correct.

Potential Cycle CIT finder

 I first mentioned the squared Cycle CIT back on 4/28th.

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/04/squared-cycle-reviewed-in-details.html

The 24 squared weeks = 4032 CD cycle produces future Highs and Lows:

1. 2/28/00L + 24 Squared weeks = 3/14/11 Low (+2) 
2. 3/24/00H + 24 Squared weeks = 4/08/11 High
3. 4/04/00L + 24 Squared weeks = 4/19/11 Low (-1)
4. 4/10/00H + 24 Squared weeks = 4/25/11 Low
5. 4/14/00L + 24 Squared weeks = 4/29/11 High (+1)
next is:
6. 4/26/00H + 24 Squared weeks = 5/11/11
7. 5/10/00L + 24 Squared weeks = 5/25/11
8. 5/16/00H + 24 Squared weeks =5/31/11
8. 5/24/00L + 24 Squared weeks = 6/08/11


One rule about these kind of cycles: not all of them will work, but I look at these dates as potential CITs only if my cycles and other timing work agrees, ie I look for confluence of Time and Cycles.

Bullish Cycles are looking Up

Both the Long term (LT) (Cyan lines in chart) and Master Cycles (MC) (Red Lines) in my work does not see any serious pullbacks until a certain Time and Price is met.  
 The LT and MC cycles suggested the 4/29 High (5/2H) and 5/4-5 Low (5/5L) (see previous posts) and now is looking up. 

We need to close above 1355 SPX to confirm these bullish cycles, although they already are on track with the previous hits.

Make or break Day

The majority of the Cycles, including the Long term and master Cycles that called the 4/29-5/2 High (see previous posts) , were now looking for a 5/4-5 Low, which we have seen sofar,  but today was a Make or Break day as we had to reverse higher today or be proven wrong.

The Jobs report was seen as bullish as Globex futures are + 12.00 SP's at the moment, which is a good start.

A rally and close above 1346 SPX down trend line (DTL) was needed to get short term bullish.

The weekly dollar chart

The weekly Dollar chart is in a down channel, we touched channel support at 72.70, right at the 5/3and this weekly Apex CIT,  but only a rally above 75 is short term bullish.

We are approaching Long term support at the 3/17/08 Lows at 70.70.

Cycles Update and free week starts on 5/5

Several cycles including the Long term and Master Cycles and the 121 and 55 TD Cycles called for the recent rally into  4/29-5/2 High that topped on 5/2 at the Apex of the 5 min CIT.

You can find out what is next in the coming virtual free week starting in only 2 days on Thursday 5/5,  you won't want to miss it. 

Raj Time and Cycles will provide a 1 week trial of the Raj T&C Daily Emails for only $5 starting on 5/5, that is less than one dollar/day, an almost  90% discount of the regular price. In order to avoid spammers and free loaders, the "dollar a day"concept was created.  5/5 is the same day that we have a Free week at the T&C Forums (see previous post). Let your friends know of these free weeks.

Register for the virtual free week Trial of the Raj T&C Daily Email here:  http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/p/old2.html

For paypal, use: timeandcycles@gmail.com 


That is the same time as the free week at the Time and cycles forums starting on 5/5/11. 

You will need to sign up there separately at: 


http://www.timeandcycles.com/services.html 

click on "register for free trials"