The 70 Trading Day Cycle

The 70 Trading Day (TD) Cycle (click on chart to enlarge) has been in the market in the last 4 years.  Notice how roughly every 70 TD, we have had major Highs or Lows. The 70 TD is due within the next week. 

There are a couple of versions of the 70 TD Cycle ,  one due around 5/24, the other due in early June.

The 5/16-18 CIT Time Cluster and Cycles update

I had an important Change in Trend (High or Low) Time Cluster on 5/16-18.

5/16/11 is:
      1.  8/16/07L+37^2
      2. 8/11/08H+144 wk cycle High
      3. 04/26/10H + 1 X 55 wks = 5/16/11 
      4. 03/17/08L + 3 X 55 wks = 5/16/11
      5. 5/01/00H + 24 Squared weeks = 5/16/11
      6. geometric CIT.

5/17/11 is :
1.    9/2/08H+987
2.    3/17/08L+34^2
3.    7/18/06L+42^2,
4.    02/07/06L + 5 X 55 wks = 5/17/11,
5.    10/10/02 Major Low + 3141 CD = 05/17/11
6.    geometric CIT
7.    Apex NDX CIT
8.    Sun 30 Jupiter 05/17

5/18/11 is:
1.    5/6/10 Flash crash + 377
2.    1/19/10H+22^2
3.    Geometric CIT
4.    Venus 030 Uranus 05/18

Yesterday, 5/18, we managed to close at 1340.68 SPX, right at the 5/6 close at 1340.20 SPX, which was almost 2 weeks ago, showing the sideways and choppy nature of this market and frustrating both the Bulls and Bears alike, as we really didn’t go anywhere in these past 2 weeks. 

Cycles: Originally I was looking for a 5/17-18 CIT High, but this past Monday, 5/16, an updated Forecast for the next 3-4 weeks was sent out, that suggested the 5/16-17 cluster CIT would be a Low instead and that we should still see a couple of higher Highs further down the road at future projected dates.   

We are not out the woods yet, as we still need to rally right away and close above a certain price to confirm the bullish cycles are correct.

Potential Cycle CIT finder

 I first mentioned the squared Cycle CIT back on 4/28th.

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/04/squared-cycle-reviewed-in-details.html

The 24 squared weeks = 4032 CD cycle produces future Highs and Lows:

1. 2/28/00L + 24 Squared weeks = 3/14/11 Low (+2) 
2. 3/24/00H + 24 Squared weeks = 4/08/11 High
3. 4/04/00L + 24 Squared weeks = 4/19/11 Low (-1)
4. 4/10/00H + 24 Squared weeks = 4/25/11 Low
5. 4/14/00L + 24 Squared weeks = 4/29/11 High (+1)
next is:
6. 4/26/00H + 24 Squared weeks = 5/11/11
7. 5/10/00L + 24 Squared weeks = 5/25/11
8. 5/16/00H + 24 Squared weeks =5/31/11
8. 5/24/00L + 24 Squared weeks = 6/08/11


One rule about these kind of cycles: not all of them will work, but I look at these dates as potential CITs only if my cycles and other timing work agrees, ie I look for confluence of Time and Cycles.

Bullish Cycles are looking Up

Both the Long term (LT) (Cyan lines in chart) and Master Cycles (MC) (Red Lines) in my work does not see any serious pullbacks until a certain Time and Price is met.  
 The LT and MC cycles suggested the 4/29 High (5/2H) and 5/4-5 Low (5/5L) (see previous posts) and now is looking up. 

We need to close above 1355 SPX to confirm these bullish cycles, although they already are on track with the previous hits.

Make or break Day

The majority of the Cycles, including the Long term and master Cycles that called the 4/29-5/2 High (see previous posts) , were now looking for a 5/4-5 Low, which we have seen sofar,  but today was a Make or Break day as we had to reverse higher today or be proven wrong.

The Jobs report was seen as bullish as Globex futures are + 12.00 SP's at the moment, which is a good start.

A rally and close above 1346 SPX down trend line (DTL) was needed to get short term bullish.

The weekly dollar chart

The weekly Dollar chart is in a down channel, we touched channel support at 72.70, right at the 5/3and this weekly Apex CIT,  but only a rally above 75 is short term bullish.

We are approaching Long term support at the 3/17/08 Lows at 70.70.

Cycles Update and free week starts on 5/5

Several cycles including the Long term and Master Cycles and the 121 and 55 TD Cycles called for the recent rally into  4/29-5/2 High that topped on 5/2 at the Apex of the 5 min CIT.

You can find out what is next in the coming virtual free week starting in only 2 days on Thursday 5/5,  you won't want to miss it. 

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That is the same time as the free week at the Time and cycles forums starting on 5/5/11. 

You will need to sign up there separately at: 


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click on "register for free trials" 

The squared cycle reviewed in details

The bearish squared cycle I was watching and posted on 4/23/11 on my blog:

http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/04/cycles-and-forecast.html 

The Master Cycle and longer term cycle all were suggesting higher above 2/18 highs, but the bearish squared cycle was in contrast with the majority of bullish cycles  

The bearish Squared Cycle was 24 squared weeks =4032 CD Cycle, here is the chart I posted:

1. 2/28/00L + 34 Squared weeks = 3/14/11 Low (+2) 
2. 3/24/00H + 34 Squared weeks = 4/08/11 High
3. 4/04/00L + 34 Squared weeks = 4/19/11 Low (-1)
4. 4/10/00H + 34 Squared weeks = 4/25/11
5. 4/14/00L + 34 Squared weeks = 4/29/11

 The 4/10/00H inverted to a 4/25 Low.  

"I already have a bias which one will be exact, But I will know for sure on the basis on one particular cluster Timing CIT due in the coming week."

The CIT I was watching for this week was that 4/25 date, which was a Low, so the Master cycle and Long Term bullish cycles got confirmed early on, which was my bias at the beginning of the week.



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The Major Divergence to watch closely

The Stock markets have been making new yearly and recovery Highs as the Master Cycles expected, but the Bank Indices have not joined in the party. This kind of bearish divergences, if prolonged are often an indication of  a topping process.

The daily Banks Index (BKX) (click on chart to enlarge) are struggling to rally, closing fractionally higher  at 51.40, close to yearly Lows, despite the general market being at new yearly highs. The Banks are seriously bearishly diverging from the rest of the markets and should be closely watched. We are below the 12/31/10 Low yearly close at 52.21, which means we are down for the year and this is bearish.  Long term Make or Break Cyan channel support is at 50.00.  Any sharp drop and solid close below 50.00 would be Super bearish.We have been in this LT bullish up channel, ever since the 3/6/09 Lows, with Key channel support is at 50.00.

Raj Time and Cycles will provide a 1 week trial of the Raj T&C Daily Emails for only $5 starting on 5/5, that is less than one dollar/day, an almost  90% discount of the regular price. In order to avoid spammers and free loaders, the "dollar a day"concept was created.  5/5 is the same day that we have a Free week at the T&C Forums (see previous post). Let your friends know of these free weeks.

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Cycles and forecast in the coming week

Any cycle, for it to be an active Cycle in my work has to abide by certain rules:

1. They have to have at least 3-5 consecutive recent direct "hits", ie they have to have predicted at least 3-5 recent Highs and Lows.

2. They have to have a proven numerology behind them, ie they have to have a Vedic, Squared, Astro, etc. based numerology in them for the cycle to be even considered.

3. There are other rules, but these are some of them.

In light of the above, as mentioned before, both the long term and Master cycle (Click on chart to enlarge) suggested a short squeeze in the coming weeks. In the chart, Red lines are the forecast, blue, cyan lines are the projected Highs and Lows.

 However, for next week only, there is also the "squared" cycle (left, click on chart to enlarge) that I rediscovered that suggest we could be down this coming week only, before heading higher. 

Of course it would have been better if all cycles agreed, but sometimes, like in the coming week, you have to be aware, that they are opposing cycles at work. It is not that easy. if it was easy, we would all be rich.

I already have a bias which one will be exact, But I will know for sure on the basis on one particular cluster Timing CIT due in the coming week.


Raj Time and Cycles will provide a 1 week trial of the Raj T&C Daily Emails for only $5 starting on 5/5, that is less than one dollar/day, an almost  90% discount of the regular price. In order to avoid spammers and free loaders, the "dollar a day"concept was created.  5/5 is the same day that we have a Free week at the T&C Forums (see previous post). Let your friends know of these free weeks.

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The coming April 25-29 week

Various Cycles suggest a large move in the coming week, some suggest Up, other suggest down.

It will depend on one particular Timing cluster CIT (Change in Trend = High or Low) in the coming week, which will determine the outcome. It should be very profitable, if the Timing is right.

The US Dollar Times and Cycles

The US Dollar weekly (click on chart to enlarge) has been in a solid weekly Down trend ever since the June 2010 and more recently the Jan 2011 Highs. The Dollar is closely linked with many other markets including the Stock markets.

Upcoming Dollar Daily Change in Trend (CIT) Times:  5/3*, 6/20, 7/5, 8/18

Upcoming Dollar Weekly Change in Trend (CIT) Times:  1st wk of May, 5/20-27 wk, 1st wk of July, 8/26 wk, 12/23 wk.

The 5/3 CIT and 1st wk of May should be an important turning point to watch.
The 7/5 CIT and the 1st wk of July should be an important turning point to watch.

Key Dollar Price Resistance: 75.80, 76.88, 77.45

A weekly rally above the 1st Down trend line at 75.80 would be the 1st Buy signal, above 76.88, the wave 1 low of the current decline is bullish for a move to 77.45. A rally above 77.45 double weekly Down trend lines is bullish.

Key Dollar Price Support: 74.17, the 11/09 Low, 72.86, the 88.6%, Major Long term Support 70.70 3/17/08L 

We closed below the 78.6% retrace suggesting a full retest of the 3/17/08 Low at 70.70 Support.

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The short squeeze from Hell

I mentioned yesterday in the T&C Live chat Forum, that I see a possible short squeeze from Hell in the next couple of weeks.

This is due to the long term Cycle I mentioned in last night's email, which bottomed on the 4/18 Lows, along with the Hurst 20 TD/5week Lows at 23 TD from the 3/16 Lows and sees a Bull stampede the next couple of weeks.

The general Master Cycle looking for a Power rally above 1344 SPX have expanded to the 4/18 Lows and will be proven correct for a continued rally into May-June Highs. All Cycles expand and contract due to planetary speeds, this includes the current Mercury Retrograde, which is about to go direct this weekend.





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The Master Cycle 2011 Update: higher Stock market Prices ahead

On 4/14 I posted in the comment section of my previous post: 

 "The Master cycle had a 4/12 Low +/-, then we make higher Highs after. That still stands, even if we are off by 2 days today. Ideally we bottom out at the 4/13-14 CIT. We again tested the ideal MC target of 1305-1310 SPX. That would also make the 10 and 20 TD Hurst Lows extended to 12 TD and 22 TD Long and overdue for a bottom. We need a reversal higher to confirm."

The Master Cycle (MC) (click on chart to enlarge) expected 4/12 Low arrived 2 days later on my targeted 4/14 NDX CIT Low at 1302.40 SPX, right at the MC 1305 SPX target.  There is plenty of bearish sentiment on various forums, but The MC now projects higher Prices in the days and weeks ahead. We should ideally see a rally above the 2/18 High at 1344 SPX.  The Master Cycle has an ideal targeted Time and Price for the next swing High and next swing Low.

 

The Master Cycle (MC) 2011-2012 Long term forecast was first mentioned in the beginning of 2011 (http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/01/stockmarket-forecast-2011-and-next.html and http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/02/master-cycle-2011-2012-crash-forecast.html ) and is so far being followed, ie generally higher into June 2011, which should be the MAJOR HIGH of 2011 and then weaker in the 2nd Half of the year and lower into October 2012 Major Lows. Major Uptrend line resistance is at 1386 SPX next week. A break below the major Uptrend line at 1259 SPX is Super bearish. We should retrace at least 50% to 1000 SPX from the June 2011 High. The Price Magnitude is not a guarantee in the chart, but should be a general guideline. Other cycles that I watch confirms the MC outlook for a June High and down the rest of the year and into 2012 Lows.

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