The 6/30 -7/1/08 New Moon -2 Crash Harmonics

This one is in the Fwiw Department.

The 6/30-7/1/08 New Moon -2 Crash Harmonics is:

1. 84 Lunar Months (= 7*12) 9/21/01 Crash Lows
2. 132 Lunar Months (= 3 *44) 10/28/97 Crash Lows
3. 176 Lunar Months (=4 * 44) 04/04/94 Mini Crash lows
4. 256 Lunar Months (=2*128=4*64) 10/20/87 Crash Lows
5. 717 Lunar Months (Carolan Crash Analog) 7/13/1950 Mini Crash Lows

This last one was one of the Major Cycles I have been watching closely these last months for my clients and is now coming to a conclusion:

3) The 717 Lunar Month (LM) Cycle:

This cycle was discovered and made famous by Chris Carolan and its of historic importance as it connected the 1929 Crash to the 1987 Crash, Day for day!, the distance between them? 717 Lunar Months, 1 LM =29.53 CD, so 717 LM = 21173 CD.

So I looked back 717 Lunar Months and guess what I found?

1. 6/11/1950 High = 05/30/08 High, Actual 5/29/08 High.

These are rough estimates, as I couldn't find the exact date, but see the green chart at: http://mrci.com/special/ddji51.php

2. 6/25/1950 = 6/13/08, is when N. Korea invaded S. Korea and markets were down heavily on the days after that.

3. 7/13/1950 Low = Major 07/01/08 Low = New Moon -2, often associated with Crash Lows.

The next Time and Cycle Cluster: 6/30/08

The last Major Time and Cycle Cluster was on 6/3-6/08 (see previous posts). We had a 6/5 Major High. The markets are now declining into my next Time and Cycles Cluster due on 6/30/08 +/-1.

Potential Price Targets are shown on the Monthly chart (Click to enlarge).

The first area of support is 1290-1300 SPX (where we are now), but the more likely target is the 1257-67 SPX area.

The 1257-1267 SPX is the 38% and 62% retraces and is the previous 1/23 and 3/17 support lows as well as the long term UP (green) channel. Only if we manage to crash through this triple Major 1257-67 SPX support, then 1172 SPX is the 50% retrace and (Red) Down Channel (1st chart) Major support.

There are several proprietary Timing Clusters due on 6/30/08. There is also the well known New Moon-2 (due early am 7/1/08) harmonics with past crashes:

6/30/08 NM-2:

1. 84 Lunar Months (= 7*12) 9/21/01 Crash Lows
2. 132 Lunar Months (=2 *66=4*33) 10/28/97 Crash Lows
3. 256 Lunar Months (=2*128=4*64) 10/20/87 Crash Lows

Although there are Lunar Harmonics with past crashes, a crash remains unlikely into the 6/30/08 Lows, but you won't want to be long during this time period.

The potential bullish counts are shown on the chart. This suggests we should get an explosive rally in July, once the 6/30 Major Lows are in.




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Gap and Go day?

Gap and Go day? It sure looks like it. We got our 6/5 High @ Close. There was an hourly CIT at Close yesterday/Open Today, which appears to be the High. This would confirm the series of Cycles looking for a 6/5-6 High.

The possible wave count is shown on the chart (click to enlarge).

I am still looking for a 6/9 Low as mentioned in the last post.

Fasten your seatbelts, it should be a wild ride.


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This will be my last post for awhile out of respect for subscribers.

The June 3-6 Time Cluster

Since my last timing post on 5/19's Major CIT (Change in Trend), which has been the Major High sofar, I had a 5/30 CIT lower High (Click on Chart to enlarge).

There has been a huge Cluster of "Hits" mentioned by various respected timers in the June 3-6 Time Frame, through their own various Timing methods, some say this time frame will be a Major Low, others, a Major High.

In my own Timing and Cycle methods, I have 2 separate timing CITs, an NDX 6/4 CIT and a Major 6/9 SPX CIT. My Series of Cycles has the last High due on 6/4-5, so my current bias is that we will see a 6/4-5 HIGH, right along with my 6/4 NDX CIT. We should then see a fast decline into my next daily SPX CIT due on 6/9/08 LOW. It becomes clearer to me once my Timing methods confirms my Cycles.




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Next daily CIT 5/19/08 and Intraday CITs

Intraday CITs (Change in Trend):
9.45, 1.40, 12.45-1.50 hourly and 3.25 pm




Actual: 9.45 LOD (Low of the Day)! (1 on chart, click to enlarge), 1.35 HOD! (2 on chart)

I also had a 1.50 Hourly CIT, so the 1.35 pm High was a perfect fit and today was my next short term daily CIT fwiw, but there might still be some other highs on 5/21-22 this week, as the Series of Cycles suggests.



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High due early next week

We have a Gap and Go day today on the bullish CPI numbers, meaning there is a high likelihood that we close on our Highs today. We are having an Up OE week.

The series of cycles was generally looking for sideways to Up into early next week and didn't see any real strong pullbacks until that time. It was looking for a very short term High yesterday, but it may have arrived today, with a one day pullback into tomorrow, 5/15L, before we rally again on 5/16. This choppy, sideways to Up action should continue into next week, where the series has a short term High.

I have a Rare confluence of 5 proprietary Cycles, in the Cycles section of my T&C daily email service, all making the SAME prediction for a Big move in the coming weeks and months, which to me is very exciting information, as they give additional confirmation, which gives me a High confidence and some potentially very profitable trades in the coming weeks and months.

It is going to be fun to watch it unfold.


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Trading Range since Time Cluster

From the last post: "I also have a separate timing cluster on 5/1-2, which makes 5/1-2 the next Time and Cycle Cluster."

Amazingly we have stayed in the 5/1-2 Change in Trend (CIT) Time Cluster range ever since. 5/1 CIT Low ("1" on chart, click on chart to enlarge) and 5/2 CIT High ("2" on chart) has marked the High and Low up until today, 5/13, which I have as another short term daily CIT High("3" on chart). 5/13 is also another short term High in the series of cycles. We remain in a narrowing wedge, eventually we should breakdown. The series of Cycles tells me when that should happen. The last month has been basically boring sideways to up. That should all change next month as various cycles are suggesting a large move should unfold

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5/1/08 Low is next

This was sent just before 2.15 pm to clients:

"I have 3 Cycles that suggests 5/1-2 CIT should be a Low, those are high odds, which again suggests we should react negatively to the Fed's expected .25 cut. PC ratios are optimistic at .80, which is a contrary signal. I guess we will know in the next 10 minutes"


Amazingly the Series of cycles had a 4/15 Major Low (#1 on chart, click on chart to enlarge), a rally to 4/29 High (#2) and now a brief pullback into 5/1 Low. I also have a separate timing cluster on 5/1-2, which makes 5/1-2 the next Time and Cycle Cluster.

Swing Cycles Update and Record

The short term swing Cycles were mostly determined by the "Series of Cycles" (see previous 4/1 post). It called for 3/28 Lows (Friday), 4/7 High, 4/10 High, 4/15-16 Lows, 4/18 High and is now looking for the next swing Low on 4/23-24 Lows. T&C Daily email Subscribers were regularly updated on these and future swing Highs and Lows.

The Markets actually had a 3/31 (#1 on chart, click on chart to enlarge) Low at Open, 4/7 High (#2), 4/10 High (#3), 4/15 Lows (#4) and from the 4/18 actual High (#5) is down 30 SP's sofar. A not too shabby performance. By ignoring all the Market Information that comes our way and simply trading these swing Highs and Lows, one could have been profitable.


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Intraday Times today

2 intraday Times to watch today: 10.40 am** and 4.10-4.15 pm**(from daily email)

Both Times were double hits. 10.40 was a low.

There was also a CIT at 1.10 pm, which was a Low 1.05 Low @1371 June SP (Notice the support in that area), bias is we rally into the close HIGH.

As mentioned before we should be down into 4/23-24 Lows. Tomorrow should be down to new lows, especially if the close today is a HIGH.

CRB Mother Divine Crash?

With Gold and Crude Oil nose diving today, I thought this chart might be a Relevant Scenario.

The CRB chart, courtesy of George Slezak of stockindextiming.com who sees this potential Crash analog, shows a possible Mother Divine Crash Formation (see 4/4 post) with a 4/15 +/- HIGH and a crash into 5/3/08, the New Moon-2.

I am not sure if there is a correlation, but I sure wouldn't want to be long Gold and Oil right now...

Mother Divine High and Low

I previously mentioned that the start and End of the 9 Days of Mother Divine (MD) are often CITs. The 9 days of MD started and ended on 4/7/08 and 4/15/08. 4/7 was wave 1 or A High (click on chart to enlarge) and 4/15/08 Low was wave 2 or B Low. I also had a daily timing Change in Trend (CIT) on 4/15. You should have been long and strong from that day onwards.

Additional Notes on the 4/10 Daily CIT

The NDX back-kissed the broken TL at yesterday's Highs (click on chart to enlarge).




Yesterday's CIT needs some additional confirmation today.

If we take out yesterday's Lows, the CIT was a confirmed High (preferred bias).

If we take out yesterday's High, the CIT was a confirmed Low.

The CIT is valid until the next daily CIT comes along sometime next week..

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Next Time and Cycle CIT Cluster: 4/10/08

Next Time and Cycle CIT Cluster: 4/10/08

It should be a Major Turn.