Tuesday, December 25, 2018
Thursday, December 20, 2018
The Flash Crash cycle is in progress right now
From 12/12 Twitter and public blog update:
I have written extensively about my discovery of the Flash Crash (FC) cycle in past posts
I first mentioned the Flash Crash cycle back in May 2010, when the Flash Crash happened and I discovered then there was a regular Flash Crash cycle, which is a Gann 360 TD/525 Calender day/75 week crash cycle.
On September 2011 for example, the FC cycle was predicting an October 2011 FC Low: http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/09/flash-crash-cycle.html
Actual: We saw an 10/4/11 major Low
The Flash Crash 525 CD cycle
04/14/00L - 09/21/01L = 525 CD = 75 weeks = 2.618 X 200 CD = 523.6
04/14/00L - 03/12/03L = 1062 CD = 2.02 X 525 CD = 03/12/03 Major Low
04/14/00L - 08/13/04L = 1582 CD = 3.01 X 525 CD = 08/13/04 Major Low
04/14/00L - 11/21/08L = 3143 CD = 5.99 X 525 CD = 11/21/08 Major Low,
04/14/00L - 05/06/10L = 3674 CD = 7.00 X 525 CD = 05/06/10 flash Crash,
04/14/00L - 10/14/11L = 4200 CD = 7.98 X 525 CD = 10/04/11L, Major Low.
The Flash Crash 75 week cycle
7 out of 9 FC Cycles saw 7%-26% (avg 12-14%) declines and most are in 2-3 wks
03/24/00H - 04/14/00L was a 14% decline in 3 weeks
08/31/01H - 09/21/01L was a 20% decline in 3 weeks
01/31/13H - 03/12/03L was a 16% decline in 8 weeks
06/24/04H - 08/13/04L was a 7% decline in 7 weeks
11/04/08H - 11/21/08L was a 26% decline in 3 weeks
04/26/10H - 05/06/10L was a 12% decline in 3 weeks
09/16/11H - 10/04/11L was a 12% decline in 2 weeks
Conclusion: The 360 TD Flash Crash Cycle predicted many crashes and major Lows in the past, including the 4/14/00 crash Low, 9/21/01 crash Low, 3/12/13 Low, 8/13/04 Low, 11/21/08 crash Low, 5/6/10 FC, 10/04/11 crash Low, 1/20/16 Crash Low and now again in December 2018 Lows. Some were misses, but in general, it is a regular cycle to be reckoned with.The Flash crash (FC) cycle, once active sees an average 12-14% decline in a few weeks. As the Flash Crash (FC) Cycle is a 1 1/2 year fixed cycle, it will have a +/- variance of a few weeks, so timing the exact Low will be Key as once the Flash Crash cycle bottoms, we will see a sharp rally afterwards.
Email: timeandcycles@gmail.com
NDX is at long term channel support, a break below could trigger the Flash Crash cycle wave due in December 2018
I have written extensively about my discovery of the Flash Crash (FC) cycle in past posts
I first mentioned the Flash Crash cycle back in May 2010, when the Flash Crash happened and I discovered then there was a regular Flash Crash cycle, which is a Gann 360 TD/525 Calender day/75 week crash cycle.
On September 2011 for example, the FC cycle was predicting an October 2011 FC Low: http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2011/09/flash-crash-cycle.html
Actual: We saw an 10/4/11 major Low
The Flash Crash 525 CD cycle
04/14/00L - 09/21/01L = 525 CD = 75 weeks = 2.618 X 200 CD = 523.6
04/14/00L - 03/12/03L = 1062 CD = 2.02 X 525 CD = 03/12/03 Major Low
04/14/00L - 08/13/04L = 1582 CD = 3.01 X 525 CD = 08/13/04 Major Low
04/14/00L - 11/21/08L = 3143 CD = 5.99 X 525 CD = 11/21/08 Major Low,
04/14/00L - 05/06/10L = 3674 CD = 7.00 X 525 CD = 05/06/10 flash Crash,
04/14/00L - 10/14/11L = 4200 CD = 7.98 X 525 CD = 10/04/11L, Major Low.
The Flash Crash 75 week cycle
04/14/00L – 09/21/01L = 01 X 358.00 TD = 01 X 525 CD = 01 X 75.00 weeks
04/14/00L – 03/12/03L = 02 X 363.50 TD = 02 X 531 CD = 02 X 75.86 weeks
04/14/00L – 08/13/04L = 03 X 362.00 TD = 03 X 527 CD = 03 X 73.33 weeks
04/14/00L – 11/21/08L = 06 X 360.67 TD = 06 X 524 CD = 06 X 74.83 weeks
04/14/00L – 05/06/10L = 07 X 361.14 TD = 07 X 525 CD = 07 X 74.98 weeks
04/14/00L – 10/04/11L = 08 X 360.63 TD = 08 X 524 CD = 08 X 74.82 weeks
04/14/00L – 01/20/16L = 11 X 360.36 TD = 11 X 524 CD = 11 X 74.79 weeks
7 out of 9 FC Cycles saw 7%-26% (avg 12-14%) declines and most are in 2-3 wks
03/24/00H - 04/14/00L was a 14% decline in 3 weeks
08/31/01H - 09/21/01L was a 20% decline in 3 weeks
01/31/13H - 03/12/03L was a 16% decline in 8 weeks
06/24/04H - 08/13/04L was a 7% decline in 7 weeks
11/04/08H - 11/21/08L was a 26% decline in 3 weeks
04/26/10H - 05/06/10L was a 12% decline in 3 weeks
09/16/11H - 10/04/11L was a 12% decline in 2 weeks
The 360 TD Cycle is about 75 weeks, which has been in the markets ever since the April 14 2000 mini Crash Low and has since pinpointed 8 major crash Lows in the past 17 years, including the 4/14/00 mini crash Low, 9/21/01 crash Low, 3/12/03L, 8/13/04L, 11/2108 crash Low, 5/6/10 Flash Crash, 10/04/11 Low and more recently the 1/20/16 crash Low.
Many of the 360 TD/75 week flash crash cycle Lows were major Panic Lows, like the 4/14/00 Low, 9/21/01 Panic Low and the 11/21/08 Banking crisis Low. A few, like the 3/12/03 Low and 8/13/04 Low were not Panic Lows, but still major Lows. At times the FC Cycle skips a beat, out of the last 12, 8 (67%) were direct hits and 4 (33%) were misses.
Conclusion: The 360 TD Flash Crash Cycle predicted many crashes and major Lows in the past, including the 4/14/00 crash Low, 9/21/01 crash Low, 3/12/13 Low, 8/13/04 Low, 11/21/08 crash Low, 5/6/10 FC, 10/04/11 crash Low, 1/20/16 Crash Low and now again in December 2018 Lows. Some were misses, but in general, it is a regular cycle to be reckoned with.The Flash crash (FC) cycle, once active sees an average 12-14% decline in a few weeks. As the Flash Crash (FC) Cycle is a 1 1/2 year fixed cycle, it will have a +/- variance of a few weeks, so timing the exact Low will be Key as once the Flash Crash cycle bottoms, we will see a sharp rally afterwards.
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Wednesday, December 12, 2018
Tuesday, December 11, 2018
December 10 swing Low
In my last public updates on 11/25 and 11/26, we were looking for a 11/23-26 swing Low.
From the 11/25 Raj T&C weekend Report: "We are declining into the 11/23-26 T&C Cluster suggesting a 11/23-26 swing Low (#1 on chart), we should then rally into 12/3H (#2) and see another decline into 12/10L (#3). We are expecting a hard retest of that 11/26L at the 12/10L. There is an outstanding 2580 SPX flagpole target"
Actual: We bottomed on 11/23 Low, rallied 169.10 SP's into 12/3 High and saw a sharper 217 SP decline into the 12/10 Lows, reaching our 2580 SPX Flagpole target.
What's Next: 12/10 should be another swing Low and we start another sharp rally into XXX swing High and see another decline afterwards.
Email: timeandcycles@gmail.com
From the 11/25 Raj T&C weekend Report: "We are declining into the 11/23-26 T&C Cluster suggesting a 11/23-26 swing Low (#1 on chart), we should then rally into 12/3H (#2) and see another decline into 12/10L (#3). We are expecting a hard retest of that 11/26L at the 12/10L. There is an outstanding 2580 SPX flagpole target"
Actual: We bottomed on 11/23 Low, rallied 169.10 SP's into 12/3 High and saw a sharper 217 SP decline into the 12/10 Lows, reaching our 2580 SPX Flagpole target.
What's Next: 12/10 should be another swing Low and we start another sharp rally into XXX swing High and see another decline afterwards.
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Monday, November 26, 2018
Sunday, November 25, 2018
11/26 Time & Cycle cluster swing Low
Time CIT (Change in Trend) Cluster
1. 11/23 proprietary Solar time CIT*
2. 11/26-27 double proprietary Geometric time CIT**
3. 11/28 Long term Geometric time CIT**
4. 11/26 Time Square CIT
Time
Squares from 4/26/10H is next due on 11/26/18:
46 =2/10/16L+1
47=5/13
miss
48 =8/16H-1
49 =11/21/16
50 = 2/28/17HH+1
51 = 6/9L
minor
52 = 9/20 minor High
53 = 1/3/18H-2
54 = 4/20/18H-2
55
= 8/7/18H
56 =11/26/18
Cycle CIT Cluster
1. 238 CD Cycle: 12/29/14H - 8/24/15L - 4/20/16H(+2) – 8/8/17H (+1) –
4/2/18L -11/26/18
2. 109
TD Cycle: 4/20/16H-108-9/22/16H-109-3/1/17H-110-8/8/17H-109-1/12/18-109-6/20/18-109-11/23/18
3. 55
TD+/-3 (80 CD)
Cycle: 9/22/16H-57-12/11/16H-52-3/1/17H –55- 5/18/17L-55-
8/8/17H-55-10/25/17L-52-1/10/18L-55-3/30-55-6/19-55-9/6-55-11/23/18
4. The
24 Year inverted cycle has recently 5
consecutive inverted hits and suggested an inverted 11/23H+/-2,
but it is now looking as if we will
now see a 11/23 Low instead.
24
Year Analog
Tom McClellan (https://www.mcoscillator.com/) mentioned a 24 Yr cycle, where the Highs and Lows were very similar in this 2 X
12 year Jupiter Cycle. It is not a precise cycle and several times the dates
are inverted.
1/31/94H
= 1/26/18H (+3)
4/04/94L
= 4/02/18L (-2)
4/19/94L
= 4/18/18H (Inverted, -1)
5/03/94H
= 5/03/18L (Inverted)
5/11/94L
= 5/14/18H (Inverted, +3)
6/15/94H
= 6/13/18H (-2)
6/27/94L
= 6/28/18L (+1)
8/31/94H
= 8/29/18H (-2)
9/12/94L
= 9/11/18L
9/15/94H = 9/17/18L Inverted
9/21/94L = 9/21/18H Inverted
9/28/94H = 9/26-28/18L Inverted
10/5/94L = 10/03/18H (-2) Inverted
10/31/94H = 10/29/18L (-2) Inverted
11/23/94L = 11/26/18H/L
12/09/94LL =
Conclusion: We are declining into 11/26 Time & Cycle Cluster Low, suggesting a 11/26 swing Low is in the make.
Email: timeandcycles@gmail.com
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Friday, November 9, 2018
Forecast Review versus Actual
From 10/31 Public Post: 10/29 Apex CIT swing Low
Actual: We bottomed on 10/29L (#1) and saw a sharp rally into 11/7H (#2)
What's Next: we decline into the next Time & Cycles swing Low and see another rally into the next Time & Cycles swing High.
Tuesday, November 6, 2018
Wednesday, October 31, 2018
10/29 Apex CIT swing Low
10/29 swing Low was 1 day from the Friday 10/26 Astro Time Cluster: MidPoint VeR&D, Ve conjunct Su, Ve combust +/-3 CD & Calendar Days to Trading Day Technique due on 10/26 and exact on Monday's 10/29 Apex CIT and 1 day from 10/30 Geo time CIT.
Wednesday, October 24, 2018
Time & Cycle review and what's next: 10/23 swing Low
Forecast #1 & #2 from 10/3 T&C Update: "We should now rally into 10/4 Quintuple time CIT cluster (#1 on chart), 10/3 Solar and 10/4-5 quadruple CIT. From there we decline into 10/11L (#2 on chart) at the 10/10 Solar & 10/12 Geo CIT and next 8 TD Hurst cycle Low."
Forecast # 2 from 10/11 public post: "We are now declining into the projected 10/11 short term Low.... We should then see a sharp rally followed by another test of the Lows...Timing will be critical..."
Forecast #3 & #4 from 10/17 T&C Update: "We are seeing an 10/17H at the 10/16 Geo and 10/17 Solar CIT. From there we decline into 10/22L at the next 8 TD Hurst & 143 CD cycle Low"
Actual:
1. We topped out at the 10/3H (#1) at the quintuple time cluster.
2. We then saw a sharp 229.35 SP mini crash decline into the projected 10/11L (#2) at the 10/10 Solar &10/12 Geo CIT and next 8 TD Hurst cycle Low.
3. We then saw a sharp 106.43 SP countertrend rally into 10/17H (#3) at the 10/16 Geo and 10/17 Solar CIT.
4. We have now declined into the projected 10/23L (#4) at the 10/23 Geo and 10/24 Solar time CIT at the next 8 TD cycle Low and 143 CD Low.
What's next: From the 10/23 swing Low, we see another sharp rally phase into the next projected Time & Cycle High, before we see another sharp decline. Timing remains critical.
Email: timeandcycles@gmail.com
Forecast # 2 from 10/11 public post: "We are now declining into the projected 10/11 short term Low.... We should then see a sharp rally followed by another test of the Lows...Timing will be critical..."
Forecast #3 & #4 from 10/17 T&C Update: "We are seeing an 10/17H at the 10/16 Geo and 10/17 Solar CIT. From there we decline into 10/22L at the next 8 TD Hurst & 143 CD cycle Low"
Actual:
1. We topped out at the 10/3H (#1) at the quintuple time cluster.
2. We then saw a sharp 229.35 SP mini crash decline into the projected 10/11L (#2) at the 10/10 Solar &10/12 Geo CIT and next 8 TD Hurst cycle Low.
3. We then saw a sharp 106.43 SP countertrend rally into 10/17H (#3) at the 10/16 Geo and 10/17 Solar CIT.
4. We have now declined into the projected 10/23L (#4) at the 10/23 Geo and 10/24 Solar time CIT at the next 8 TD cycle Low and 143 CD Low.
What's next: From the 10/23 swing Low, we see another sharp rally phase into the next projected Time & Cycle High, before we see another sharp decline. Timing remains critical.
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Thursday, October 18, 2018
Quick Review
From 10/11: "We are now declining into the projected 10/11 short term Low.... We should then see a sharp rally followed by another test of the Lows...Timing will be critical..."
This has all come to pass...
This has all come to pass...
Hard retest coming
It ain't over until its over, hard retest coming, watch 2760 SPX and 2733 SPX as key support Levels
Thursday, October 11, 2018
Before and after the Boom
From the 9/25 public blog post: "The 94 TD, 168 TD & 273 CD cycles suggesting a 9/21 major swing High"
From the 10/4 Update: "9/21H remains the High, it got retested as expected in early October Time Cluster and now Boom..."
Before:
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From the 10/4 Update: "9/21H remains the High, it got retested as expected in early October Time Cluster and now Boom..."
Before:
94 TD cycle due 9/21H
168 TD cycle due 9/21H
273 CD /9 Month cycle due 9/21H
After the Boom:
What's Next: We are now declining into the projected 10/11 short term Low. The late great Brock's proprietary Tunnel Price techniques projected 2772 SPX target, close to the 200 DMA at 2765 SPX, which we could acheive today. We should then see a sharp rally followed by another test of the Lows. Timing will be critical...
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