Thursday, April 28, 2016

A potential mini crash wave is on the Horizon

http://safehaven.com/article/41267/a-potential-mini-crash-wave-is-on-the-horizon

In my last public blog post a few days ago, I was looking for an 4/26 Geometric CIT Low, that was either the 4/25 Low or it could be inverting to an important 4/27 swing High instead.

To get the Timing right, I use my proprietary Timing Change in Trend (CIT = High or Low) dates that are either exact or  +/- 1 day, below are the most recent ones (as mentioned at http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/ in the past)


Time CITs:

  1. 4/13 Time Square CIT => 4/12L
  2. 4/20 Geometric and Solar CIT => 4/20H
  3. 4/26 Geometric CIT => 4/25L or 4/27H?


The 4/26 Geometric Time CIT was either the 4/25L@ 2077.52 SPX or 4/27H@ 2099.89 SPX. 
If we decline below that 4/25L, then the 4/27 High gets confirmed as the 4/26 Geometric CIT and if we rally above the 4/27H, then the 4/25L gets confirmed.


Cycle CITs:

I have been following an active Inverted cycle in my newsletter, ever since the 2/11/16 major Low.  An Inverted cycle means it is a historical cycle that is predicting exact future Highs and Lows, within 1-2 days, but inverted, meaning a past High is predicting a future Low and a past Low is predicting a future High.

This dominant inverted cycle (red vertical lines on chart) has seen 9 “hits” and 1 miss:

  1. 2/11L
  2. 2/24L
  3.  3/4H
  4. 3/11L(-1)
  5. 3/17H (miss)
  6. 3/28L(-1)
  7. 3/31H(+1)
  8. 4/12L
  9. 4/22H (-2)
  10. 4/26 Low or High?



At any point this inverted cycle can invert back to a “straight” cycle and that may be the case at the inverted cycle’s projected 4/26L may have inverted to an 4/27H. The next few days will make that clear.

Why is that important? Because if we did see an 4/27H, then that same cycle now suggests a mini Crash wave is on the Horizon and that historical Crash Low date was on one of Carolan’s infamous Dark Days.“The lunar dates 7-27 and 7- 28 are the “dark days, ” encompassing the various Black Tuesdays of N.Y. in 1929 and Hong Kong in 1997, and the Black and Blue Mondays in N.Y. in 1987 and 1997 respectively. In each case, lunar date 7-28 marked the end of the panic and the next two days, 7- 29 and 7-30”

What is interesting here, is the current date I have for the possible mini crash Low is directly linked to those dark days!  (Yellow projection line on chart does not give the exact date)  That date is also a Major Time and Cycle Cluster as it has 2 Time Squares CITs, the dark day CIT and several cycles all suggesting a Major CIT on that date. Caveat: If that date is not the mini crash Low, it will be the High to get short for a sharp 150+ SP decline afterwards. In any case, it should be an important turning point to watch in the markets. 

9 comments:

Rajat Ray said...

Let me be the first to guess....9/10 May low in the S&P around 1975. Time will tell...

El Malagueno said...

I ask for version B.

Monsao said...

Nice call Raj of Time and Cycles....is there a projected time frame for the decline to end?

Peter Lo said...

Spy to 186! I posted iwm 113.32 and spy 210/210.55 weeks ago, achieved.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Thanks Rajat, just curious, what timing do ou have on May 9-10?

El Malagueno, version B is no crash will occur.

Monsao, yes sometime in May

Peter Lo, good calls lately, 186 SPY would be amazing! Good Luck!

Alex K said...

The next time target seems to be 12 May +/- 1 day:

11feb16 low + 90d = 11may
20jan16 low + 16w = 11may
11oct07 + 4*7*16w = 12may
19may15 + 360d = 13may
06mar09 + 15*25w = 13may
08jul1932 + 7*25*25w = 13may

cf thegaxreport.com

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Thanks Alex, 5/12 looks interesting in other ways as well!

Unknown said...

Mercury is in retrograde until May 22.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

I originally had the mini Crash Low as the 5/4 Low, but it looks like it will be a "normal" Low, still a good Low.

From last night: "The decline has morphed into an ABC decline into 4/29L and we are seeing a possible D wave rally phase into 5/2H, followed by a final E wave into 5/4-5 T&C Custer Lows"

As we erased all of yesterday's gains, it confirms that a D wave did complete at the 5/2H, which was the 5/2 Geo and 4/30 Solar weekend CIT and we are in a final E wave lower into 5/4 T&C Cluster Low.

Time Cluster 5/4:

5/4: Time Squares that predicted: 5/20/15H, 7/20/15H. 9/30/15H. 1/4/16H, next is 5/4.

5/4: Time Squares that predicted: 10/5/12H, 8/7/14L, 12/5/14H, 8/17/15H and next 5/4.

5/4: 2616/1800 TD/7 year cycle: 3/6/09L+ 1803 TD =5/4

5/4: 180 degrees opposite the October Dark Days of New Moon-2 Crash days = 5/4

Cycles Cluster 5/4:

Inverted Cycle 4/22H, 4/27HH!, 5/4 Low

Proprietary Cycle 1: 4/19H, 5/4 Low

Proprietary Cycle 2: 4/21(H) and 5/4 Low

Proprietary Cycle 3: 4/12L, 4/20HH, 5/4 Low

58 TD Cycle of Lows: 12/16/15L -57-3/11/16L -57.5X2- 8/24/15L -59- 11/16/15L -59- 2/11/16L -57- 5/4/16 Low

19 TD Cycle of Lows: 11/16/15L - 12/14/15L - 1/20/16L - 2/11/16L - 3/10/16L - 4/07/16L - 5/04/16L

The 58 and 19 TD cycle of Lows along with all the other fixed Cycles suggests a 5/4 major Low, which remains the bias.