Friday, March 18, 2016

The Inverted Cycle and the next Solar CIT has a March 18-21 High

Review of the 2/12 blogpost on longer term CyclesThere is a confluence in several markets, (SPX, Bonds and Crude Oil) for a February 2016 turning point that should be important to watch.

 2/12 Forecast 1: “The 8 Month SPX cycle due is in February 2016 +/-1 Month, suggesting an important Low is due in February 2016… We should make an important 2/12 Low+/-1.

Actual: SPX bottomed at the 2/11/16 Low and have rallied a sharp 236 SP’s into today's Highs.

2/12 Forecast 2: “The Crude Oil has a monthly Apex CIT due in February 2016. As we have declined into it, it suggests a Crude Oil Low is due in February 2016”

Actual: Crude Oil bottomed at the 2/12/16 Low and have rallied a sharp $14.31 into today's Highs.

Forecast3“The Bond Interest Rates has a reliable 93 week cycle Low that is due this February 12 2016 week.”

Actual: Bond market Interest Rates bottomed at the 2/11/16 Low and have rallied a sharp 3.48 Interest Rate points so far.

Conclusion: All 3 markets bottomed at exactly the same date, 2/11/16 Low+/-1.

Shorter term SPX Forecasts

Actual: We saw a 3/4 High,1 day later and declined 39.88 SP's into 3/10 Low.

Forecast from the Friday 3/11 Daily Email: The inverted cycle predicted the 2/11L, 2/24L and 3/4H. It now suggests a 3/11L and a rally into 3/17H+/-1. There is a 891 CD Fixed cycle due 3/17 as well"

Forecast from the Saturday 3/12 weekend Email: “ The cycle bias is we are higher into Monday 3/21 Solar and daily Apex CIT (Change in Trend)"

Actual: From the 3/10 Low, so far, we rallied 77 SP's into 3/17 High.

What's Next: We make a 3/18 High+/-1 at the next Solar CIT (Change in Trend) and start another decline to the next swing Geometric CIT Low.

If we see a last hour High today 3/18 (68% chance), then Monday 3/21 sees a 1st hour High and bias higher.

If we see a last hour Low today 3/18 (32% Chance), then Monday 3/21 sees a 1st hour Low and bias lower.


ZZ Q said...

what is your target for the upcoming decline of SPX?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

ZZ, all I can say right now is, it will be tradable, but relatively limited decline.