Friday, March 18, 2016

The Inverted Cycle and the next Solar CIT has a March 18-21 High

http://safehaven.com/article/40815/raj-time-and-cycles-review-and-forecast-march-18-high-1-day

Review of the 2/12 blogpost on longer term CyclesThere is a confluence in several markets, (SPX, Bonds and Crude Oil) for a February 2016 turning point that should be important to watch.



 2/12 Forecast 1: “The 8 Month SPX cycle due is in February 2016 +/-1 Month, suggesting an important Low is due in February 2016… We should make an important 2/12 Low+/-1.


Actual: SPX bottomed at the 2/11/16 Low and have rallied a sharp 236 SP’s into today's Highs.




2/12 Forecast 2: “The Crude Oil has a monthly Apex CIT due in February 2016. As we have declined into it, it suggests a Crude Oil Low is due in February 2016”


Actual: Crude Oil bottomed at the 2/12/16 Low and have rallied a sharp $14.31 into today's Highs.


Forecast3“The Bond Interest Rates has a reliable 93 week cycle Low that is due this February 12 2016 week.”



Actual: Bond market Interest Rates bottomed at the 2/11/16 Low and have rallied a sharp 3.48 Interest Rate points so far.


Conclusion: All 3 markets bottomed at exactly the same date, 2/11/16 Low+/-1.



Shorter term SPX Forecasts


Actual: We saw a 3/4 High,1 day later and declined 39.88 SP's into 3/10 Low.

Forecast from the Friday 3/11 Daily Email: The inverted cycle predicted the 2/11L, 2/24L and 3/4H. It now suggests a 3/11L and a rally into 3/17H+/-1. There is a 891 CD Fixed cycle due 3/17 as well"

Forecast from the Saturday 3/12 weekend Email: “ The cycle bias is we are higher into Monday 3/21 Solar and daily Apex CIT (Change in Trend)"


Actual: From the 3/10 Low, so far, we rallied 77 SP's into 3/17 High.

What's Next: We make a 3/18 High+/-1 at the next Solar CIT (Change in Trend) and start another decline to the next swing Geometric CIT Low.

If we see a last hour High today 3/18 (68% chance), then Monday 3/21 sees a 1st hour High and bias higher.

If we see a last hour Low today 3/18 (32% Chance), then Monday 3/21 sees a 1st hour Low and bias lower.


3 comments:

ZZ Q said...

what is your target for the upcoming decline of SPX?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

ZZ, all I can say right now is, it will be tradable, but relatively limited decline.

Lisa Scott said...

Loved your blog, novice traders can learn a lot from it, whole world is looking for crude oil forecast in 2018 due to geo political issues and OPEC limits on production movements. Do share your insights about crude oil price movements in this year