Time and Cycle Review and Forecast

http://www.safehaven.com/article/34287/time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast

Review: The 6/2 T&C Cluster CIT from my last public post was a minor 6/2 Low.

We didn’t see any reversal lower, so shorts were not triggered.

Forecast from the June 7 weekend report: “Odds are good we will see higher highs Monday, 6/9. A couple of arguments for a 6/6-9 swing High: 1. Fibo: 10/11/07H-4/26/10H= 928 X 2.618 = 2430 CD +10/11/07H = 6/6/14. 2. The 423 hourly Cycle is due near the close 6/6 to open 6/9. 3. Mercury goes Retrograde on 6/7, often a CIT. From this 6/6-9 High, we should see a brief sharp decline into 6/11 Solar CIT. We expect a decent pullback of at least 30 SP’s (1930 SPX) to even 50+ SP’s to the 1900 SPX+/-10 area, before we bottom.”

Actual: We made a 6/9 swing High and saw a 30 SP decline into 6/12 Solar CIT Low of the week, before the rally into Option Expiration week.

Forecast from the June 19 report: “The 6/22 Solar CIT (change in Trend) is biased to be a 6/23 High and  targets major Long term channel resistance at 1966-68 SPX.”

Actual: We rallied into Monday 6/23 High, with an intraday Friday High of 1963.91 SPX so far.

The 35 week cycle has produced major Highs and Lows in the last 5 years: 3/6/09L-35 week-

11/2/09L-34-7/1/10L-33-2/18/11H-33-10/4/11L-35-6/4/12L-38-2/28/13-32-10/9/13L-37-6/27/14+/-.

The 333 TD/69 wks/484 Cycle has produced major Highs and Lows since the last 8 years :  

7/18/06L-325 TD-10/31/07H-338-3/06/09L-332-07/01/10L-335-10/27/11H-332-2/26/13L-333 TD-

6/23/14+/-.  The 333 TD or 69 wk cycle is double the 35 wk cycle and suggests a major CIT around 6/23/14+/- week.

What’s next: We make a 6/23 swing High. As all trends are up, we need a clear reversal lower no later than tomorrow to confirm this. We will then decline into my next upcoming Time Square, Geometric and Solar CIT major Cluster.




6/25 Update:   "As all trends are up, we need a clear reversal lower no later than tomorrow (6/24) to confirm this"

We finally saw a nice reversal lower yesterday, confirming a short term High is in.
We need to see a follow through decline to get a larger decline going.