Friday, March 28, 2014

Raj T&C March 2014 Review & Forecast

http://www.safehaven.com/article/33266/raj-time-and-cycles-march-2014-review-and-forecast

In my last public post, I was looking for a 3/3-4 major Low. http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2014/03/raj-time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast.html

Since that 3/3 Low of the Month, we saw a sideways and choppy March Month. In early March 4, the important Times to watch for the month of March and the March 2014 Cycles forecast Roadmap was emailed. During the march month some times were revised 1-2 TD earlier (like the 3/17L, was adjusted to the 3/14L), but overall the forecast remained the same.

Important Times to watch for March 2014 (vertical Cyan Lines on chart, click to enlarge):

1. 3/3-4 has a 3/3 Solar CIT, 3/04 geometric CIT and 3/04 SP Cycle CIT.

2. 3/11 has a double geometric CIT and 3/12 is the next Solar CIT.

3. 3/17-18 double geometric CIT

4. 3/21 Solar CIT on Option Expiration (OE) day.

5. 3/28 geometric CIT, 3/31 Solar CIT and 7/18/06L + 53^2 = 03/27.



March 2014 Speculative Roadmap:

Forecast #1: (Red lines on chart) "We decline into the 3/3-4 Solar & geometric CIT Low"
Actual: We made a 3/3 Low of the Month at 1834.44 SPX.

Forecast #2: "From 3/3-4 Low, we rally into 3/11-12 Geometric and Solar CIT High"
Actual: We made a 3/11 High, that was a double Top with the 3/7 High.

Forecast #3: "From the 3/11-12 High, we then decline into 3/17-18 geometric CIT Low"
Actual: We declined into a 3/14-17 Low.

Forecast #4:  "We then rally into a 3/21 Solar CIT and Option Expiration (OE) High"
Actual: We rallied into a 3/21 OE High.

Forecast #5: "We then see a decline into 3/28-3/31 geometric & Solar CIT Low"
Actual: We declined so far into 3/27 Lows at 1842.11 SPX, close to my 1840 SPX target.

As can be seen in the examples above, the Solar and geometric Time CIT's are often exact, or at most +/- 1 day.

What's Next: We make a 3/28-31 CIT major Low, targeting 1830-40 SPX. There is another Low due at the 4/2-4 geometric CIT.The April important Times to watch and April Cycle Highs and Lows has been forecasted. We have been in a sideways trading range the last month, which ever way it breaks determines the next major direction in the markets.

3/31 Update: The expected 3/28-31 Low was the 3/27 Low, 1 TD earlier.
3/27 Low is also as the dominant 24 Squared week cycle Low (3/12/03L= 3/26/14L+1) and the 7/18/06L +52 Squared TD = 3/27/14 CIT Low. We are now bullishly biased.

6 comments:

Trendtrader said...

hi raj,
" but few are chosen"
do you think you are select from God?
How is God? a thing or a person?
What is with the "next Panic Low"?
No Low occour instead we see new highs.
Nobody can see the entirety because of limit views of her eyes.
regards
tt

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Lol TT, That was just a Bible quote I enjoyed for its wisdom.

I certainly don't think I am selected by God. ;0)

Rajat Ray said...

Hi Raj....a question for you!
Is currency devaluation a realistic expectation from the cardinal cross in mid-April (15th) when mercury ignites the set-up? In that kind of a scenario, we could see the USD drop 5% in a day with gold/silver making a panic move higher of the order of 10-15%.
Thanks!

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Hi Rajat Ray,

I wasn't aware of the Astro on 4/15, thanks foir letting me know. I am overall bullish on the Dollar, despite any short term declines. there is a triple CIT (High or Low) on 3/31-4/1 in the US Dollar.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

The expected 3/28-31 Low was the 3/27 Low, 1 TD earlier.

3/27 Low is also as the dominant 24 Squared week cycle Low (3/12/03L= 3/26/14L+1) and the 7/18/06L +52 Squared TD = 3/27/14 CIT Low. We are now bullishly biased.

Suren said...

Raj:

3/27 Major Low call has been broken today by SPX. NDX broke this low long ago. Looks like Tom DeMark's minimum 11% correction is in play for the next three months.

Suren