Friday, February 7, 2014

Raj Time and Cycle Review and Forecast

http://www.safehaven.com/article/32688/raj-time-and-cycle-review-and-forecast

Review: In my last post, 3 weeks ago, on Jan 17, I was looking for a 1/17-21 swing High and start a decline that was part of a Panic Cycle. http://timeandcycles.blogspot.com/2014/01/the-active-panic-cycle.html

Actual:  We made a 1/21 swing high and saw a sharp 111+ SP decline so far. The Panic cycle was looking for an initial 50-60 SP decline, but we more than doubled that, with more to come.

From the 2/4 Update: “We are extremely oversold, but the decline should continue into 2/5 Low+/-1 at the 2/4 Solar and or 2/6 geometric CIT. The Symmetry Point Cycle suggested a 1/21 High and a 2/6 Low. Mercury becomes Retrograde on 2/6 as well, which is often a CIT. Downside support is the 6/24/13L-10/9/13L trend line support at 1738 SPX and the 50% retrace at 1738 SPX.”

Actual: The markets declined into a 2/5 Low, bottoming right at the 6/24/13L-10/09/13L Trend line support at 1738 SPX, at the 50% retrace from the 8/28/13L and 38% retrace from the 6/24/13L, both at 1738 SPX, 1 day after the 2/4 Solar CIT and 2/4 Squared Trading CIT and 1 day before the 2/6 geometric CIT, 2/6 SP Cycle CIT and 2/6 Mercury Retrograde CIT.

Squares in Trading days CITs

 


The above squares in Trading Days CIT is a Square of 9 timing technique that gives very precise Change in Trends (CIT), all dates are +/-1 TD.  

1. 10/11/07H - 11/16/12L = 1285 Trading Days (TD), take the Square root of 1285 and you get: 35.85^2 (35.85 squared)

Now increment that number by 1 or 2 each time and re square to get future CITs:

2. 35.85+2 = 37.85^2 = 1433 TD + 10/11/07H = 6/24/13L

3. 35.85+3 = 38.85^2 = 1509 TD + 10/11/07H = 10/10/13L-1

4. 35.85+4 = 39.85^2 = 1588 TD + 10/11/07H = 2/04/14 +1 = 2/5/14 Low

Please note that 2/4 was also a Solar CIT, suggesting strongly that 2/4 +/- 1 TD was going to be an important CIT. This became the 2/5 Low as expected.

What’s Next?: We made a 2/5 Low and should rally until the next swing High at the next proprietary Time and Cycle Cluster CIT, before we see yet another sharp decline. My next public post will be right after the next Panic Low.



2/9 Update Square of 9 CIT Dates

I had a conversation with Bruce Larson, who inspired me to look at these square of 9 CIT Dates.

Blue Lines are Bruce's Square of 9 Highs from 10/11/07H.
Notice the increment is +2 each time on those lines

04/02/12H = 1127 TD = 33.57^2
10/18/12H = 1266 TD = 35.58^2
05/22/13H = 1412 TD = 37.58^2
12/31/13H = 1566 TD = 39.57^2

Red Lines are my square of 9 Lows from 10/11/07H

1. 10/11/07H - 11/16/12L = 1285 Trading Days (TD) = 35.85^2
2. 37.85^2 = 1433 TD + 10/11/07H = 6/24/13L
3. 38.85^2 = 1509 TD + 10/11/07H = 10/10/13L-1
4. 39.85^2 = 1588 TD + 10/11/07H = 2/04/14 +1 = 2/5/14 Low


The 10/18/12H- 11/16/12L, 5/22/13H-6/24/13L and 12/31/13H-2/5/14L are Square of 9 fractals.

The High/Low relationship
10/18/12H-11/16/12L = 20 TD
05/22/13H-06/24/13L = 22 TD
12/31/13H-02/05/14L = 23 TD

18 comments:

obe said...

When is the cycle high due?

Wesley Li said...

Hi. Do you expect market will go up higher from now on? if so, what is your target? are we making a new high for SPX? Thanks.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Obe and Wesley Li,

There are a couple of cycles I am watching right now. I have to see which one is the more dominant one.

I don't think we make higher Highs right now, but the rally could be strong and volatile.

My next public post will be right after the next Panic Low.

David said...

Hi Raj, I appreciate you sharing your knowledge with the world and respect your subscribers. I am wondering you would be willing to recommend some books that taught you the basis of what you do? Thanks for considering.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Update Square fo 9 CIT Dates

I had a conversation with Bruce Larson, who inspired me to look at these square of 9 CIT Dates.

Blue Lines are Bruce's Square of 9 Highs from 10/11/07H
Notice the increment is +2 each time on those lines

4/2/12H = 1127 TD = 33.57^2
10/18/12H = 1266 TD = 35.58^2
5/22/13H = 1412 TD = 37.58^2
12/31/13H = 1566 TD = 39.57^2

Red Lines are my square of 9 Lows from 10/11/07H

1. 10/11/07H - 11/16/12L = 1285 Trading Days (TD) = 35.85^2
2. 37.85^2 = 1433 TD + 10/11/07H = 6/24/13L
3. 38.85^2 = 1509 TD + 10/11/07H = 10/10/13L-1
4. 39.85^2 = 1588 TD + 10/11/07H = 2/04/14 +1 = 2/5/14 Low

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-CuuOaagu_ns/UvfT9lGhrgI/AAAAAAAAzfM/45zHJqN0MIQ/s1600/squared+Trading+Days+CITs.gif


The fact that 10/18/12H- 11/16/12L, 5/22/13H-6/24/13L, 12/31/13H-2/5/14L makes these sq of 9 fractals.

The High/Low relationship
10/18/12H-11/16/12L = 20 TD
5/22/13H-6/24/13L = 22 TD
12/31/13H-2/5/14L = 23 TD

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Hi Dave, There are many resources that I have learned Something from.

There are a few things you won't find in any books and those are my Solar CITs, geometric CITs, Master and dominant Cycles.

Other's work that you can learn something (certainly not all) from are:

1. Dan Ferreras' annual report:
http://www.sacredscience.com/ferrera/

2. McWhirter Theory of Stock Market Forecasting http://www.amazon.com/McWhirter-Theory-Stock-Market-Forecasting/dp/0866905855/ref=pd_sim_sbs_b_1

3. The Spiral Calendar and Its Effect on Financial Markets and Human Events http://www.amazon.com/Spiral-Calendar-Effect-Financial-Markets/dp/0932750214

4. Pentagonal Time Cycle Theory
http://www.cycle-trader.com/pentagonal.htm

5. The Delta Phenomenon or The Hidden Order in All Markets https://www.deltasociety.com/content/delta-phenomenon-or-hidden-order-all-markets

6. David Mcminn has done some good research books on various Cycles:
http://www.davidmcminn.com/index.htm

7. Hurst Cycles: Here is an online book: http://klimasauskas.com/downloads/Hurst_CyclicAnalysis.pdf

Jim Curry uses these Hurst cycles with Statistics in his newsletters that is good.

Wesley Li said...

Thanks.
Are you saying we will see the rally to last about 20-23 TDs?

Raj Time and Cycles said...

One more book Time and Money by Robert Gover http://www.hopepubs.com/timeandmoney.html

Wesley, I am not sure how you came to that conclusion

Wesley Li said...

I am based on:
The High/Low relationship
10/18/12H-11/16/12L = 20 TD
5/22/13H-6/24/13L = 22 TD
12/31/13H-2/5/14L = 23 TD

thx.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Thanks wesley, Those were 20-22 TD declines from High to Low, so no that doesn't suggest a 20 TD rally.

It was just that all those High Low dates, pin pointed by the Squared TD calculations were similar fractals in the past.

David said...

Thank you for your recommendations! Sorry for another follow up... in your bio, you indicate a mentor, James Brock. Does he have any work available for study? Thank you much!

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Hi David, He had some articles a decade or so ago in 'Gann and Elliot" magazine that later became http://tradersworld.com/

He is not public anymore as he trades for himself and I only have contact with him via private phone.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Many stock market books are either too vague or complete waste of time.

Although I don't have any of Dan Ferrera's books, I am sure they must be good, because I have read his annual forecasts and they are very good and worth the Investment:

http://www.sacredscience.com/store/commerce.cgi?product=FER

Trendtrader said...

Hi raj, Do you read Ferreras 2013 Outlook? He was absolutely wrong in the longtime Change in Trend. How you can say 2014 would be a better year for him?
Nobody have the holy grail for 100% trading.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Trendtrader, it has nothing to do with being right or wrong. His research has been very good.

All other books' authors has been wrong for many many years, like Prechter,Delta nad spiral Calendar, but that doesn't mean that some of their stuff is not good.
It would be a mistake to use a black and white judgement on any of them.

One more Book to read: TTheory by Terry Laundry, also something to learn from him, but none are flawless http://www.ttheory.com/pdf/a1997introttheory_.pdf

Trendtrader said...

Dear Raj,
I'm on your side with your Viewpoint.
I mean basically read 1000 Books or for example me:
i fount more as over 20 Methods and all are good but each of these method are is not complete in itself. there are always gaps, etc. know it can not be perfect. Otherwise it would not be experienced. When you observe something then you share it. You can never see the whole. If we do but the way it has been practiced for 100 years. Let's go with the trend. I find this is the easiest method. But Laundry is also nice. nice day
Trendtrader

Trendtrader said...

Ah by the Way,
Raj, you show over the last couple of Month very good Work. Much more as all the Trader i know.
Trust me, the best is to study the Market from a successfully Trader.
Learn Money Management go with the Trend and you will profitable!
Best regards
Trendtrader

jj914 said...

Following Bruce Larson comments, By my count, we are now near the 20th day of a positive cycle. Do u believe the downturn we start shortly? If so, is 1st week of March a strong possibility and will the pullback be more than 4%?

Thanks for all your analysis and comments.

John