Friday, January 17, 2014

The active Panic Cycle

http://www.safehaven.com/article/32432/the-active-panic-cycle

From my last public post:“We made a 12/31 High and have started a decline. There are some indications that we will see another High later on in January 2014.”

Actual: From the 12/31H, we declined 33.9 SP's into a 1/13 Low and have reversed higher since.

There are various unique Time and Cycles techniques used to determine important Change in Trends (CIT), Highs and Lows and Cycles Research to find “dominant or active” cycles is the most important and takes precedence above other timing techniques. If a cycle has been discovered to have predicted at least 3-5 recent swing Highs or Lows+/-1 day, it is considered dominant or active and can then predict future Highs and Lows, within 1 trading day accuracy, as opposed to fixed cycles, that are +/- many days and weeks. The active Cycle is best used in combination with the proprietary Solar and Geometric Timing CITs. The ideal is that they support and confirm each other, which increase the prediction accuracy to 90-95%.

A week or so ago an active/dominant Cycle was discovered, that is part of a larger upcoming Panic Cycle.
From the 1/12 Forecast: “The current dominant cycle has 6 direct hits and predicts a 1/9-10H, decline into 1/14L and then higher into 1/17 swing High, which should retest the 12/31 ATH and even see marginally higher Highs. We will have to see how it performs in OE manipulation week, which normally skews the Time and Cycles.”

Actual: We saw a 1/9-10 High, decline into 1/13 Low (-1), followed by a sharp reversal rally higher and we should rally into January 17-21 and see marginally higher All time Highs.


There is also a long term 228 TD/331 CD fixed Cycle (click on chart to enlarge) due on Jan 17-20, right at the 1/18 Solar Time CIT supporting the active Cycle’s 1/17 swing High.
The 331 CD/228 TD fixed Cycle: 8/11/08H-331-7/08/09L-335-6/8/10L-328-5/2/11H-336-04/02/12H-330-2/26/13L-328-1/17-21
So far the active Panic Cycle currently has 8 direct hits as it pinpointed:
1. 11/20/13 Low
2. 12/09/13H
3. 12/18/13 major Low
4. 12/31/13 swing High
5. 01/07/14 Low (-1)
6. 1/09/14 High
7. 1/14/14L (-1)
8. 1/17/14 swing High

What’s Next: We make a 1/17-21 swing High and start a decline into the next swing cycle Low and then rally once more. We will see a series of swing Highs and Lows, until a major swing High is reached, before the actual Panic wave starts. Be prepared, timing will be important.

1/23 Update: The active Panic Cycle is working its charm. Its focus is on the SPX. The 1/21 SPX High remained the High, while the NDX and BKX made a 1/22 High.  I have said enough publicly, clients are starting to complain.

15 comments:

shibumi said...

what does this mean?

steve said...

yea I dont get it either,

the prediction was basically that the market will go up and will go down and eventually there will be a crash without reference to date/timeframe

Raj Time and Cycles said...

It simply means there is an active cycle suggesting a 1/17-21 High and a start of a decline that should eventually lead to a crash wave.

I have said enough publicly, clients are starting to complain.

Sandiawan Lie said...

Hai Raj,When are we going to rally again it will happen as you say? Tq Raj

andre van Staveren said...

You have said enough, indeed. And I sure hope you maintain this level of detail. Found your site yesterday and it's already in my favorites.

Thanks.

qichengm said...

Hi Raj,
Spot on! When will the crash end? Thanks!

Raj Time and Cycles said...

The active Panic Cycle is working its charm. Its focus is on the SPX.

The 1/21 SPX High remained the High, while the NDX and BKX made a 1/22 High.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Qichengm, The Panic has not started yet. this is just a hiccup ;0)

andre van Staveren said...

WS -2%. Vix + 30%. If this is a hiccup, please define panic ;-)

Raj Time and Cycles said...

Andre, the active cycle was expecting this amount of decline.

This is a hiccup relative to with what is yet to come.

nasik said...

Do you expect a new high on spx after this possible 5% pullback? Thanks

Suren said...

According to Martin Armstrong NO such crash will occur as the majority is expecting it compared with 1929. Only a brief correction to SPX 1,700, if that in Feb. The majority has to be wrong for the hedge funds to make money in the opposite direction/scenario.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

I don't expect the market to follow the 1929 analog either. Many will be disappointed.

apple melau said...

Hi Raj,

Could you please kindly update the cycle, dow tumble 300+points with VIX up 20+ if this is the beginning of the crash and when would it end?

Im having mid Jul for the lows however with current market reaction everything is just too fast and im not sure if we could possibly have a higher high.

Raj Time and Cycles said...

apple melau, One thing is certain, we are now in a down trend, counter trend rallies nothwithstanding.

Clients have complained that I am giving away too much info, so I will be quiet for some time, until after the decline ends.