Review and Forecast of the various Time and Cycles.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/31691/review-and-forecast-of-the-various-time-and-cycles

Forecast made on my last public blog on 10/3/13: “We should continue to decline and make an 10/4-7 major Low. I don’t have any high quality Time CITs supporting this Cycle CIT Low date, but the next Solar Time CIT on 10/9 should be another Low. In general, it is the Bulls turn to stampede higher into my next proprietary Time and Cycle cluster CIT.”

Actual: We made an 10/9/13 Solar CIT major Low at 1646.47 SPX, 2 TD off the expected 10/7 Lows and which was the 35 week (green lines) cycle Low (click on weekly chart to enlarge) and we rallied a powerful 158.75 SP’s so far into 10/30/13 All time Highs at 1775.22 SPX, which was another version of the 35 week Cycle (pink lines). The market rallied into long term 3/6/09L-10/4/11L and 4/26/10- 2/18/11H parallel channel resistance at the 10/30/13H at 1775 SPX. The markets have been straight up since the 10/9 Solar CIT Low into the 10/30H, with only 1 TD pullback days. In the last 3 days, we have seen 3 minor back to back decline days so far, which is a Change in the trend (CIT) since the 10/9 Low.

There was a Time and Price Square CIT on 10/29/13, supporting the 10/30/13 High.

Price: 3/6/09L-2/18/11H = 677 SP's

Time: 3/6/09L + 677 TD = 10/29/13 => 10/30/13H.

What’s next:  Does this all means 10/30/13 was a major High? It is possible, but as all trends are up, surprises will be to the upside, so we must see some price confirmations either way.

The 319 hourly cycle was either an 10/31H at 1768.53 SPX or the 11/1 Low at 1752.70 SPX. Any decline below 1752.70 SPX is confirmed bearish and leads to a test of the 1730-40 SPX area. Conversely, any rally above 1768.53 SPX is bullish for a test of the 10/30 High at 1775 SPX. The next Time and Cycle cluster to watch is on 11/7/13 as it is both a Solar and Cycle CIT.

11/7 Update: We rallied into the 11/7 Solar and Cycle CIT, made a higher High and have now reversed sharply lower. That is a prefect CIT today, with a secondary High in place today as the 10/30 time and Price Square High still stands. It doesn't get any better than that.

 Various notes: There are various Time and Cycles techniques to determine CITs (Change in Trend), Highs and Lows and below is the Raj T&C Daily Email order of importance:

1. Cycles Research to find dominant or active cycles first. If a cycle has been discovered to have predicted at least 3-5 recent Highs or Lows+/-1, it is considered dominant or active and can then predict future Highs and Lows, within 1 TD accuracy, as opposed to Fixed cycles, that are +/- many days and weeks.
   
2. Active Cycles that has a proprietary Vedic & Biblical numerology are Master Cycles.
   
3. Time Research to find the Solar CITs that have a high 84-90% accuracy and Geometric CITs that have a 70-80% accuracy.
   
4. All other Time and Cycle techniques are also important, but they serve to support the above two, these includes Fibonacci Timing, Master Time Code CITs, Squares of Time and Price, squared Dates from past dates, Astro CITs, Elliott waves, Fixed cycles, etc.
   
5. We always need to consider the Solar and Geometric Timing CITs in combination with the dominant Cycles. The ideal is that they support and confirm each other, which increase the accuracy to 90-95%, but if they don't, it will cause additional volatility.
   
6. Cycle CITs. In addition to Solar and geometric Time CITs, there are also Cycle CITs. when cycles are found that predicted at least 3-5 previous Highs and Lows, but has many Inversions, it is not considered an active cycle, but it does produce future Cycle CITs, ie High or Lows. This is as opposed to Active Cycles (1&2 above) that have predicted at least 3-5 previous Highs and Lows and have No Inversions.